Revolutionaries Outflanked by Tribe and Sect

Revolutionaries Outflanked by Tribe and Sect

Elections in Tunisia and Egypt gives influence on the highest levels to long-suppressed Muslim parties – Al Ikhwan al Muslimiyya (Muslim Brotherhood or MB), the Salafis and some eight other groups, mostly Sufis like the followers of Niffari, plus assorted Naqshbandiyya, Qaderi, Tijaniyya, Amediyya, and Coptic-Muslim associations.

“My people do not agree on an error” said Muhammad Qureyshi, rendering dissent as necessary and sacred. The Christian injunction to love one's enemies is not just because it is the human thing to do, but because the enemy often has what I need and want, which is self-knowledge. Just because I am willfully ignorant of my opposition, of how he thinks, does not infer that my enemy is ignorant of my character, self-deceits, conceits and aspirations.

There's no theory of war in the Qur'an and terrorism is described, step by step, from the initial complaint and defamation, to the planning, executing and the consequences which follow, in this world and the next.

If a few MB, Salafi and Sufi Muslim leaders are given seats in the parliament, the cabinet, and the intel police, this will effectively ward off mass Islamist resurgence. The MB cannot flex its muscle without drawing opposition from other Muslim groups, not to mention the educated secular folk.

These moderate Islamists of North Africa know they do not possess the skills, the science, required to manage and grow large modern societies. But scientists in the West are too quick to write off (or defame) Islamic civilization.

Muslims the world over suffer the indignation of cruel, inhuman laws that wormed their way into the shari'a. Those are: stoning, the cutting off of hands, the suppression of women, the treatment of non-Muslims, terror and jihad.

In this world, the best and the worst often go back-to-back. The Catholic church performs humanizing functions for the poor, the sick, the elderly, the disabled. But it also launched and prosecuted some 63 genocidal wars, plus the Inquisition (which has been revived under the German pope.)

The same is with large Muslim organs. They do great work locally, providing services, services the government cannot give (because the money went to debt servicing, the armed forces and to a corrupt elite).

Women have been providing services all along so they too deserve a place in the cabinet and in parliament. We hope at least one woman will be on the parliamentary committee charged with writing a new constitution. There should be three.

If we observe Islamists trying to deprive women of their rights, then we know that some are bent on engineering society using dubious hadith and highly select verses from the Qur'an. Another bad sign would be the teaching of hate in North Africa medressehs, as wood sabotage and terror. (Note: the vital NG pipeline from Egypt to Israel has been bombed five times).

Let us look more closely at last week's election returns.

Egypt -

The Nov. 28 elections were just part one in a graduated sequence of balloting. But the strong showing of Islamists in Cairo and Alexandria will only increase as up-coming elections move from province to province. In November, the MB-sourced Freedom and Justice party took 36.6% of the vote, while the Salafists took an astounding 24.4%. This upset was made possible because of a grass-roots organization, funded by money from Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the UAE. As for the secular Egyptian Bloc, they took some 1.29 votes out of 9.7 million ballots cast.

The original revolutionaries, secular, educated youth, were unable to reach the many more poor and uneducated. The new Wafd party took fewer than one million votes. The modern moderate Islamist party Al Wasit also received less than one million.

November's elections covered only 9 of Egypt's 27 governates. The up-coming elections on Dec.14-15 will cover municipalities in lower Egypt, while the elections of Jan.3-4 2012, will involve districts in the center and south of the country.

 Tunisa -

November elections were free and fair, and we should not be too surprised that Islamists win seats in parliament. The moderate Islamist party, Ennahda, has ruled tolerantly on a number of key issues, like rights for women. But the Salafist party, the Ansar Ash Shari'ah (AST), has ruled most intolerantly, advocating violent jihad, even persecution  of non-Muslims, and that includes secular educated Tunisians.

The Ansar ash Sharia'a was established last April, as many Tunisian jihadists returned home. Some had served in Iraq and Afghanistan, and the Salafis want government to take care of these jihadists. AST sides with the Taliban and with Al Qaida. They follow the extremist sheikh Al Kitab al Idrisi, and are based in the Bab al Khadra neighborhood of Tunis.

The Salafis in Tunisia are not as established as the Salafis in Egypt and Lebanon. and the Gulf. We fully expect the An Anahda to monitor and restrain the more militant, media-savvy Salafis.

Many secular folk in and outside Tunisia lament the results of democratic elections - the accession of Islamists. But democracy is a path to be followed: the ideologues  become responsible when elected. If not, they're ridiculed and dismissed. The Qur'an contains no theory of or call for war. It does not talk of holy war, and of course it condemns 'mischief in the earth.'  It is certainly incorrect to say that Muahaamad at Mecca was npot democratic. The first four rashidun calipyhs were elected (by the ulema) and Muhammad told them to handle any succession issues that way.

There is a real divide between the Bedouin and the urban-based Salafists. The Bedouin elect their sheikhs, and they are not driven by some one-line passage in the scriptures. The Salafis and Islamiksts in general are said to represent the countryside, but that's not quite how it is. The small farmers and the bazaar are poor, but put their faith is the impartial forces of the market.

It is very embarrassing to talk with Islamists because very few know their own codes (fiqh, shari'a) and even fewer have ever studied their faith using the techniques of modern physical and psychological sciences.  How many are qualified for public office? In any case, the people are not going to let the politics of symbolic appeal trump what needs to be done, practically.

Yemen -

A new interim government under Abdul Rahman Al Mansur al Qadi is sworn in on Sat. Ddec.10, but this splits the protesters. Many think the regime will not give up control, and that the corrupt elite will escape trial. Other protesters want the protests to end so the economy can be rescued. Both the tribes and the Islamists are now players. Yet chaos reigns, and we expect further outbursts of fighting. The new government must immediately bring dissident army units under control. The army needs be united, and this may be difficult.

Even though Ali Saleh resigns, flying to Riyadh (Dec.3), fighting breaks out in Taizz between loyal and insurgent army forces. Some 50 are killed, from Dec.4 to Dec. 9, 2011. Tribes and sects are vying for power. Violence in Sana'a as well, involving Revolutionary Guards under the command of Ahmed Saleh, fighting dissident army units led by Gen, Ali Mohsen.

Yemen is facing a debilitating crisis, with shortages of NG, gasoline, diesel, food, medicines, water. The port of Al Hudayda should have five big freighters and two tankers (NG, jet, and auto fuels), if the international community is responding as it should, meeting the Yemenis' requirements.

One reason Saleh left Yemen is because he leaves his own family and friends in the lurch. They'll be rolled back. If and when a new government takes office, the borders will be closed and the corrupt will be imprisoned. Much effort is being made to spare former Saleh staffers and technocrats from the ignominy of genocide against one own people.

Our readers know Yemen as being remarkably divided for such a small place. The Red Sea and Arabian Sea coasts have evolved quite different cultures. The inner towns of the Hadramaut valley, exhibit a different culture than, say, the Zaydi Shi'a of northern As Sa'ada. And we should not forget Socotra, one of the strangest places on earth, with some 600 indigenous species. The Dahlak archipelago is also weird.

The Yemeni opposition is highly diverse, as diverse as is the country. The secular intellectuals who organized the revolt remain in alliance with the shebab, the youth with the electronic communication devices, who directed the movement of protesters. Over the past eleven months, all the elements, from tribes to truck drivers, from university students to housewives, from mullahs to tribal chiefs, have had ample time to talk through differences and to evolve, in waiting, an effective new government. But the Islamists are pushing for more.

Yemen's army is a recipient of funds from Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Britain and the USA. At the moment, Revolutionary Guards keep the protesters from occupying government buildings. The resistance paradoxically does not like or even recognize, Ali Abdullah Saleh's resignation. They want to try him for capital crimes.

Some 150 children have been slain in the course of this conflict.

The anti-Saleh movement does not accept the GCC deal.

Syria -

Today, on Friday, we receive reports that some 14 were killed, seven in Homs, four in a Damascus suburb (Douma?), and three in Hama. The regime shows no sign of letting up. When the protests began some nine months ago, the various Syrian police services had the run of the towns. Then this disappeared, as citizens fought them with sticks and stones. Then the police services used army units to protect themselves from the angry populace, while they searched specific apartments for propest leaders. Now, the army has to go in first, because the opposition now contains several thousand defecting Syrian soldiers and police.

Curiously, Bashar al Asad appeared on ABC TV in the States, interviewed by Barbara Walters. He denied any responsibility for killing some 1250 Syrians. He felt sorry but had no doubts. He denied he had effective power to stop security forces. And he was sure that the opposition is led by armed terrorists.

None of these countries in Arabia are run by one man exclusively. Syria is an idea greater than any individual. The Ba'ath has been demonized by the West. Yet it represents small business owners. It also provides a minimal level of income, a way of distributing careers. Some ten years ago, economic restrictions were gradually lifted. Just two years back, we saw some big Syrian banks become independent, free to lend to whom it will. Some two million Syrians became wealthy as a result of the liberalization of traditional Syrian business acumen.

Children are dying in Homs for lack of heat and food, especially milk. From the very start, we knew the terrible economic costs of revolution. In regard to Syria and Yemen, NGOs and international agencies are afraid to go back in. So we see a collapse in the foreign aid system, just when they are needed the most.

Somalia -

Somalia is one of the 22 countries in the Arab League. It has been at war with itself for a quarter of a century. Just these past few days, we note a sudden up-tick of war. The Shebab have invested northern Mogadisiu with child fighters, while Ugandan and Kenyan troops are fighting to hold on to gains made just these past weeks.

The Kenyans are focusing of the south, Kismayu, and that pressure may have forced the Shibab back up into Mogadisciu. The Americans are involved. Using drones and choppers based on amphibious landing ships, they can intercept the highway between Mogadisciu to Kismayu. But only during the daylight hours.

Recent bombing in Northern Somalia, Puntland, was likely pirate masters warning the moderate government to back off foreign requests to move on the pirates, from land.

Sudan -

War lingers in the Sudan. Last summer saw the division of the country. The oil – the little of which might be there – lies right on the border (Abiye), and it is obvious that North and South Sudan should share the proceeds. Fighting festers in Kordufan, as Black Arab-speaking Muslims attempt to keep the Janjawid out of their homelands.

Palestine, Lebanon, Iraq -

These Arab nations are all divided within themselves, in such fundamental ways, that we do not expect an amelioration of their grievous fates. Sunni and Shi'a confront each other inside the Lebanese government, the Iraqi government and inside the Palestinian societies of Gaza, the West Bank, and East Jerusalem. In each case, there is a non-Muslim element, which may offer ways of escape from civil war.

There exist Christian, Druze and Kurdish factors who might wisely not bet on the fights in Iraq, Lebanon, Syria, and Palestine. The minorities must be protected, and they are generally, either buy the regime or by the democratic opposition.

-JPM

What the Elections Mean: More Focused Discussions

What the Elections Mean: More Focused Discussions

Most everyone saw it coming: the election of moderate Islamists. Backroom dealings bring former foes together. We all hoped that discussions amongst themselves would lead to democracy. Now we know that political wannabes will not alter their core positions. For the clerics, that means rejecting everything Western, be it a tool, a media artifact, or an idea.

The revolutions had nothing to do with Islam or the MB. But like Algeria in 1992, the demonstrations were manipulated, hijacked. That's the fear. In our archive, the reader can find our studies of moderate Islam. Let us turn to the elections.

Egypt -

Big protest demonstrations in Tahrir Square, Cairo, in Alexandria and elsewhere, did not prevent parliamentary elections from going forward to Monday, Nov.28. Now votes are being counted. The Ikhwan Muslimiyya will gain some 43% of the seat (according to our calculation last autumn). In response, Gen. Hussein Tantawi meets with Muhammad Al Baradei. Mr. Al Baradei has been trying to link up with the Ikhwan, since July, 2011. He has had many 'enlightening discussions' with mullahs and muftis. This man who handled nuclear weapon data, enforcing controls, is now handling a fire burning just as brightly: the drive for a country where the shari'a is the basis of all legislation.

Leave it to the Brothers to screw things up yet again. Following Hasan Al Banna, they see every thing, tool, idea, practice coming from the West, as evil. In order for them to come forward, they need to back out of their assumed posture, as eternally at war with Israel, Britain and the USA.

Another problem is that the Brothers, for all their study, do not have access to modern sciences, physical, psychological and social. They do not read the texts critically. They are interested in being seen as pious alongside others. Islam can provide a total experience, 'unpolluted.' That would be fine if they were following Muhammad Qurayshi's precepts and practices at Medina. But of course bad laws broke into the shari'a. Before these alien and destructive laws are removed from the books, Islamic countries will be criticized by the rest of the world. Who wants to get stoned? Or cut the hand off of a repeat shoplifter? And the persecution, demonization, genocide, against other families of Abraham?

Why the terror? The killing of innocents? What verse of what sura justifies and prompts this behavior?

And jihad. There is no theory of war in the Qur'an, but look at them fight.

Washington and other NATO nations are worried that the Islamists are going to come out on top. Curiously, we have never met, in all of our travels, a mullah, mufti or scholar of religions, who could see the Islamic-system' of seven ways of holding land. They just were not trained to use phenomenological analysis to critically 'lift' that system from the early books of Malik ibn Anas, Numa, Ahmed ibn Hanbal, Al Mawardi, As Suyuti.of their key terms.

You can check out the innards of a curious book entitled “A Phalanx of Lies: How Falsehoods Bedevil Peace in the Middle East and Central Asia. Here we go at fundamentalist here in the USA, in Israel and in Islamic countries. We know which passages from the Torah, the New Testament and the Qur'an they are using to justify and guide their genocidal urges. Why?

When people get so poor they go into survival mode, dying off early, they'll cling to the steady hand of the local cleric, who provides something the West cannot. Even the Egyptian state cannot provide services for a third of its people, a vacuum the Islamists fill. This is their proper place, and should be supported. Together, secular and sectarian could and should provide all kinds of services. Education is not a service. Egyptian children should learn about Islam and other religions. Will the Islamists be involved? Maybe as students. Only rarely is a mullah trained in modern social sciences, or even how to read a text. Symbols get taken for sign-posts: the little mind sees a big pattern. Hence the childish extreme beliefs about Islam, that it involves wearing robes and being seen in the mosque. If our attention gets stuck in form, irrelevant aspects, like how long my beard should grow, or dominance over women, then there is not enough attention left to ferret out the practical, useful core truths.

The Salafis and the fundamentalists, Shi'i or Sunni, claim to find everything in the Qur'an. They'll kill you if you say the book was written by a human. Of course such reverence for a book is the sin of shirk, of associating God with another person or thing. The Qur'an was pieced together a half century after the prophet's death. The first written biographies of the prophet (Sira) were written some 160 years after his death. All those stories about Muhammad – most have grains of truth.

Readers are invited to log on to www.middleeastspeculum.blogspot.com to find therein, two papers. One, “Islam under the Knife: Reform Brings Power” shows how obnoxious inhumane laws wormed their way into the shari'a. They are: stoning, the cutting off of hands and gouging out of eyes, the repression and control of women, persecution of non-Muslims, terror, jihad, genocide.

Last week, SCAF (Supreme Council of the Armed Forces) led by Hussein Tantawi 'the Sphinx,' suggested that elections for a prime minister be held this coming summer. He also has been conferring with many technocrats, generals and commodity suppliers. Al Azhar sheikhs should be discrete and not jump into street Islam.

Tunisia -

Like the MB in Egypt, the An Nada party may have an ax to grind. I remember way back in 1985, an Amnesty International meeting where some twelve of us met two Moroccan human rights representatives. We were to defend several Islamists in prison, but the two educated Moroccans exhibited an authentic fear. We kept arguing for the immediate release of two clerics, but AA in Tunis was not pleased. “These street clerics are not educated. How can you rule, or even play it straight, unless you were educated? “

He has a point there. In regard to the 'conflict crescent,' the emergence of a nuclear stand off, one better play straight. In Egypt, Tunis, Yemen, Bahrain, Syria, the protesters are a fraction of the populace. Yet educated citizens remain vigilant. The new constitutions will not abrogate secular civil and criminal codes. Family law may suffer. If only the shari'a were purged of the 'laws' like stoning and the cutting off of hands, persecution of non-Muslims, enforced supervised prayer, the demonization of other faiths, terror and jihad. The Qur'an has no theory of war. The high author, channeled through M., addresses the consequences of war: the care of widows and orphans, prisoners of war. It never say “Attack before they attack.” In no place does the Qur'an say “Go attack and kill.” There are three verses – one liners with exclamation marks – urging his squad of soldiers to “attack them (the non-believers) everywhere. If they resist, slay them where they stand, but if they surrender, let mercy guide your actions.” There is also a hadith where Muhammad says: “If violence breaks out, find out who started it, then attack him.”

The Brothers are winning over young men in the poor suburbs, and outside Tunis, in Sousse, Tebessa, Sfax, Kasserene and, of course, Kairoun. An Nada is national movement, still expanding, and now in office. Their leaders have some education. As they learn about the Tunisian people these high muftis slough off the carapace of identification, and slither from one huge problem to another. But the rest of the country are educated Muslims, who see no contradiction between Islam and democracy. Foolishly, most cleric argue and work against this modernization of the code. The competency of a legal system depends partly on how it reforms itself, from decade to decade.

I remain hopeful that the shari'a will be purged of its alien parts, to base itself on the precepts and practices of Muhammad at Medina and Mecca. And so be compatible with international norms and laws.

Algeria -

One of many curious aspects of Algeria is the ability of government and private companies to devise and install, power and desalination plants, highly specialized industries, all supported by other industries. This money was enriching an elite, but that elite required complete competency in these critical endeavors. Riots originated in Tindouf in June 2010, and infected Algeria. Self-immolations started with Tuareg Sahrawis protesting Morocco's annexation of their country, then spread to the suburbs of Algiers, and from there leaped Libya the armed forces and intel police.

Libya -

The same mixing and study of actual conditions needs occur in Libya. 'Experts' like Qaddafi himself, saw the Cyranaica as a blood exiswtential enemy. That rivalry goes back to 800 BCE. (Tripolitania was a Phoenician colony, Benghazi and Cyrenaica a Greek one.) Thank God that many other places exist in Libya, so to mitigate the inevitable rivalries between east and west. The Fezzan is determined to retain a long-suppressed independence, vital to nomads (even if they live in small towns).

My research assistant called my attention to videos of the last minutes of Qaddafi's life. As they lifted him from the truck, Qaddafi, face bloody, was smiling like a surprise child.

Palestine -

We have heard this from two of our Palestinian Arab friends: “OK, Israel, you have won. We surrender. Now there is only one big country, and we naturally seek full equal status before the law.”

This is the infamous one-state solution, never really achieved, either by the Israelites, the Judeans, or

by the eight imperial administrations, from Middle Egypt, Canaan (Phoenicia), Assyria, Babylon, Persia, Macedonian, Seleucid/Ptolemy Greek, Roman, Byzantine, Turk, Norman, Mameluke and Fatimid, Seljuk and Ottoman empires, the Brits and the Americans.

Such is the racial and sectarian discrimination, taught to their children at an early age, using the scripture in perverse ways, to engender hatred of the other Abrahamic brother, that we cannot see a successful 'one nation approach.' In Gaza, there are some 3,000 warriors ready for suicide attacks. Another 3,000, Shi'a, sit in bunkers in southern Lebanon. They now rule Lebanon, its parliament and the executive. Will they sacrifice themselves for the marji'? (Twelver Shi'a clerical establishment, most in Iraq and Iran, but also in Lebanon.) Many Palestinian Sunnis are also given weapons to fight.

Curiously, yet typically, the Israelis cut Palestine's own money stream, but it had no effect on the Gazan people and regime. On Dec. 2, the Israelis announced they were opening the money taps, money that belongs to the Arabs.

No contact between Arab West Bank and Gazans means they'll further polarize. The border with Egypt is now open, but where does that get you? Hunted down like dogs by Bedouin working for both the Israelis and the Egyptians?

Maybe the one-state solution should be given legs and wings and let fly. The religious Jews, following the Torah, will not like sharing holy places. And that land, reading from the bible, stretches from the Nile to the Euphrates. Of course this is all nonsense. As an archaeologist and anthropologist specializing in the Middle East, North Africa and Central Asia, who worked in the back rooms of museums (the Rockefeller), there is no record or artifacts backing up this historical expansion.

Israel -

The Jewish state is also a Muslim state. The supreme court of Israel trains its own people in Arabic and they study the early shari'a texts, Malik, Numa, ibn Hanbal. Most Israelis judges speak and read Arabic, and they routinely use the shari'a and fiqh to adjudicate in cases. Most pertain to proterty that had, long ago, been 'dedicated forever' to some social purpose. These are the waqf (auqaf pl) properties, the administration of which is the responsibility of the local cleric(s).

Israel had its Spring also, a series of demonstrations and occupation. But that broke up after Gazan terrorists ambushed an Israeli tour bus, killing eight. Some five Egyptian soldiers were then killed by an Israeli helicopter, causing an attack on the Israeli embassy in Cairo. The government and army seems to have woken up. Of course the Sinai has been a hotbed of crime and terror.

Israel would like to recruit Arab Bedouin to run ops into Sinai. So, too, the Egyptians. There are still some UN post strung along that border. Foolishly, Israel is forcing its Bedouin into government-controlled settlements, using money incentives. I've traveled amongst Israel's Bedouin, and they are harmless. They graze their animals on land no one else uses. In actual fact, they are being removed from the land. I remember seeing camel caravans on the move to the Old City (1978).

If Jerusalem really were sacred land, it would be shared, easily. The destiny of Israel and Arab Palestine is to become nations amongst other nations. History has many examples where and when two nations merge to colonize each other. Nomad and settled folk often worked out arrangements. This was the Neolithic achievement that made possible civilization. Abraham, Moses, Jesus, Muhammad – all knew it. They were not revolutionaries bring in new universal law codes, as much as traditionalists you sought to retrieve from the past, old life ways bound by shared agreed-upon laws and norms.

Today, the US asks Israel to engage in diplomacy to retrieve relations with Egypt and Turkey. Diplomacy requires some give, as well as take, and this the Likud will not agree. Why? Because the hard-lined fundamentalist rabbis are using scripture as both justification and as a blueprint. (See Exodus 23: 23-32. That's the script they're using. Note that is calls for a gradual conquest, a slow-motion genocide.

Syria -

The Ba'athi regime of Al Asad rejoices in the support it's receiving from the Russians, the Chinese, the North Koreans and the Vietnamese. UN sanctions are limited. The Arab League is in a state of deep indignation at the slaughter of unarmed citizens by Syrian police and military. Everybody, it seems, is trying to prevent a sectarian civil war. But the regime is up against the wall, like a rat cornered in a dark space. Where is it getting its money to pay its 3 million employees?

All spring and summer and autumn we were very pessimistic that peace would return to Syria anytime soon. But now I'm tracking indications of exhaustion and stress, not just amongst specific urban populations, but amongst the 16 active organs and agencies perpetrating genocide against their own citizens. Like any siege, exhaustion leads usually to a request for mercy.

Yemen -  

Some seven killed in Ta'iz on Dec.2,, probably free army soldiers and Islamists resisting the new state army. That army is still commanded by Ahmed Saleh. His father, president Ali Abdullah Saleh, has thrown in the towel and migrated once again to Saudi capital Riyadh.  Such an ignominious defeat must depress all his friends and family who hold large junks of money and power.

A sudden steep learning curve for the opposition, who want Saleh and his sons tried in court. There are some ten elements on the street that need be factored in to any analysis.: the liberal, secular, educated leadership; the shebab or youth, with electronic media; the clerics, with their congregants, usually the young toughs;  labor unions and socialists and communists; the tribes; professional associations; women's groups. School children; university students; disaffected army and police.

Can these folks get it together to make a new Yemen?



United Arab Emirates -

There is much dissent in the UAE. The Bedouin gripe, the mullahs scheme, the majority non-native population is suppressed if not oppressed. Even the super-rich bitch as if they are victims. Many are, in Dubai, where property is still sold for twice its worth.. But the economy is damn good, so it perplexes his majesty, president Al Khalifa, that anyone should feel bad.. It must have been him who felt so insulted by what opposition members put out in the airwaves, that they sentenced a score to prison terms 'for insulting the government.

UAE has a parliamentary upper house, some forty members, working with the prime minister M. Rashid Makhtoum. He also presides over the Council of Ministers.

Bahrain -

The tragedy of the Bahrain spring was the manipulation of the educated demonstrators by unseen clerical 'hands.' This threatened to bring in Iran. The occupation of Pearl Square turned into a riot, an occupation of a vital shared space, so drew fire. There's no excuse for that, of course.

Before the Pearl Square occupation, the ministers were trying to draw in responsible Shi'a. But any Shi'a MP had to obey the soft-power dictates of the marji'oun (Iran'Iraq's clerical establishment and hierarchy).

As Iran prepares its bomb and ballistic missile, word has been relayed to the Bahrain leaders, that their country will not survive an attack on the American 5^th Fleet in Manama harbor. So, in the years to come, I see the Americans being asked to leave. The Americans can always come back if trouble develops.

Iraq -

The last American soldiers will be leaving Iraq in just three weeks. The Pentagon wanted to keep some eight big bases in the country, but Iraq simply threatened to sue American offenders in Iraqi courts. That was enough to get the Americans to cut and run.

The Shi'a in the top offices are not sharing power, except with the Kurd Talebani, who is now pro-Iranian. The various Sunni intel services are gearing up for a secret war. How unfortunate that Iraq may not recover...She's open for business, though. Oil, gas, dates, AK-74s, RPGs. They all go together. Too much body armor. Where's Ayyad Alawi?

-John Paul Maynard

The author is the moderator/instructor for the online discussion group 'Islamic civilization' hosted by the Graduate Alumni Association, Harvard University.

Islam and Democracy الإسلام والديمقراطية

الإسلام والديمقراطية

Islam and Democracy

How can Muslim clerics claim that democracy is anti-Islamic? This is true neither in the spirit or in the letter of the law.

Amongst the bedouin, sheikhs are generally elected; the sheikh keeps his tent open to the poorest petitioner. During his many consultations, he will often ask for a show of hands. The first rashidun (rightly-guided) kaliphs – Abu Bakr, Omar, Uthman and Ali – were all elected by the ulema. Muhammad must have told them to do that before he died, for he often used consultative assemblies in Medina, which included Christians and Jews from some three tribes, and sometimes both men and women. The ulema are the learned elders of the community. Muhammad commissioned no clergy. He also said: “Government must consult with the people at every step.” Finally, his laws promulgated in Medina gave basic rights to the weakest - for captured prisoners, women, orphans, travelers and non-Muslims. These laws of course are often violated.

The roots of law in the Middle East go back to the Neolithic, when farming and sheherding communities learned to coexist and prosper. Each produced what the other needed, and long-distance trade required such cooperation. Civilization was to grow out of this. Nomads were instrumental in most empires right down to the Ottomans. The rifle ended that. But the bedouin still ruled outside the habitable zones. Urban rule usually did not extend outside a city's walls.

Westerners err in thinking that the shari'a represents authoritarian thinking. Hardy. The early jurists - Malik, Numa (Abu Hanifa), Ash Shafi'i and ibn Hanbal were all persecuted by the Abbasid authorities, because they would not use the law for political purposes, to harm people.

Scroll back to three issues and you'll find a list of seven steps, from ceasefire to election, which charts the progress of a successful revolution. Note the inner search stage, where all the law codes are laid out, all the constitutions, then assessed and assembled by a group of electors representing the various constituent groups. This is a tough task for any nation, given the trauma, the long reign of un-democratic regimes, the lack of education and the genocidal imperative of vilification. What is a poor takfiri to do?

Secular educated people globally fear the re-emergence of Muslim Brothers and Salafis. Both are taught to hate everything western, particularly western ideas. Though they are Sunnis, long suffering, they look to the judge-led theocracy of Islamic Iran as an exemplar, something to aim for – total control.

Democracy admits the Islamists into its big tent. But what then? Since Islamic schools traditionally teach nothing applicable to today, clerics and their students cannot serve as high officials in offices requiring scientific expertise, accurate decisions.

Religious fundamentalists amongst the Jews, the Christians and the Muslims, have long resisted any accommodation with international norms. Few study in any depth the sciences required to assess the scriptures, and to put them in a context by which they might be understood. Once a text is deemed sacred, it can't be changed. It can't be criticized. This leads to people using it as a recipe or a blueprint for conquest and genocide.

This lack of any social science means that the clerics cannot know their religion(s) and history, nor interpret them correctly, as the scriptures are cryptolectic. The true believers claim God composed these writings, but then, why would He want to deceive us, or make grammatical errors, or prompt genocide or suffer so many egregious contradictions? Is our God a mean one who arbitrarily consigns innocent populations to eternal hell (as so many believe) or is it a benevolent God who loves all Her children?

The fingers of man are all over these books. The Qur'an was not assembled till some five decades after Muhammad's death; then just pieced together. The 24 books of the Torah all come from different places, different perspectives. One book may have several authors, often competing. Hence the contradictions. In short, Judaism has had many interpretations. The New Testament, with its genocidal final book of Revelation, only survives in demotic Greek – a dumbed down version of Homeric and Hellenic Greek. The gospels sometimes contradict each other.

Islamic laws which most everyone hates – stoning, the cutting off of hands, persecution of non-Muslims, repression of women, terror, jihad – none of these laws are a part of Muhammad's revelation and practice at Mecca and Medina. Yet ignorant 'Muslims' will die to enforce these additions. We think it is time to resurrect the authentic Muslim reform tradition, initiated by Jalal ad Din Al Afghani in the mid 19^th century. Let the clerics find their place in service to their flocks. If they act to seize power, these terrorists use a law much higher (to them) than commonly-held civil or international laws and norms. Scripture is above criticism, and now, once again, the holy books are being used to prompt and justify genocide.

Egypt should do what the Ottomans did - forced the leading clerics from all sects to reside in Istanbul. There they got to know each other. There were few cases of genocidal sectarianism. The Turks fought long wars on its eastern borders against the Safavids, but Palestine was peaceful, if poor, for some four hundred and thirty years.

We are advising select muftis and social scientists of the utility of using the Ottoman recension of the shari'a – its modern scientific re-casting, in detailed, produced by Tanzimat reformers in the 19^th Century.

American Christian Zionists are terrified at the re-emergence of Islamic North Africa. They don't hesitate to betray their own co-religionists by bashing the Christian Palestinians and taking sides against the Christians in Syria. The Palestinians have been split in two, making their liquidation or 'transfer' easy. Israel is determined to become a Jewish state, which means that its annexation of Arab Palestine, requires 'transfer.'

In fact, an Israeli friend-of-a-friend called our office asking me to query my Arab contacts, how they would feel is they were each given a villa on the sea in the UAE. “Arab Palestine will always be stolen land, instigating war, terror and hate.”

The American government has an immense bureaucracy dedicated to fighting Islamic extremists. But what about militant Jewish extremists? Or the Christian ones? If the commander of the Israeli army units in the West Bank says publicly that the rampaging settlers, Jewish American fanatics, led by rabbis, are terrorists, pure and simple; if the Israeli army views the settlers that way, then why do Americans fall to the right of the IDF? Why back (or acquiesce in) the (slow) destruction of Israel's twin, Arab Palestine? The mullahs in Gaza also talk of a genocidal program.

“Do not use my name to cause harm. If you do, I will punish you especially severely.” -Exodus 20:7

Egypt -

As elections on 28^th of November draw nigh, Tahrir Square erupts again in mass demonstrations , prompting violent responses by the authorities. Some forty have been killed over the six days, from Nov. 17 to the 25^th. The protesters have been fighting back, with stones and petrol bombs. The army is using rubbed coated metal bullets on its own people. Why?

The demonstrations want to put the armed forces under civilian control. Back in February, we saw the army intervene to stop police attacks on innocents in Tahrir Square. There grew then an agreement between the army and the Muslim Brotherhood.

Some interpreted this unholy alliance as a joint bid to exclude the secular, educated people, those who originated the protests.. In any case, these cozy relations between the Brothers and the Army did not endure half a year. It became clear to all Egyptians that the leadership of the armed forces, the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces (SCAF), was dragging its feet of democratic reforms.

Field Marshall Hussein Tantawi did not help much by being silent. After three days of rioting in Cairo, Alexandria, Aswan and Suez, he announced that presidential elections will be pushed up, to 2012. Yet as of this date, he has not called off those units which are battling their own citizens inn the side streets around Tahrir Square.

In Cairo, young, secular, educated people appear to leading the demonstration, as they did back in January. Fundamentalist Muslims, distinguished by their dress, seemed to have been excluded. Many marchers have expressed concern about their protest movement being manipulated by the Muslim Brotherhood and Salafis.

But all expect the MB to win a plurality. Educated, urban populations went back to Tahrir just to protest the ascension of the Islamists and its alliance with the SCAF, to cut off any democracy. But Cairo and Alexandria are just districts. Outside, in the delta and up the Nile, amongst the fellahin, the Islamists rule.

Educated people shudder at the thought of making the shari'a the basis of family, civil, criminal and economic law. This new Islamist-led government will first gain a working majority, through coalition building with much smaller parties, then promulgate a constitution inimical to the rights of women.

As Monday's parliamentary elections occur on Nov. 28^th, Tahrir Square remains full of demonstrators

We believe elections will go ahead. Here is a list of coaltions and parties: Visit them.

Coalitions 

Democratic Alliance for Egypt
Egyptian Bloc
Islamist Bloc (Alliance for Egypt)
Revolution Continues Alliance

Parties

Egyptian Current Party
Egyptian Social Democratic Party
Democratic Workers’ Party
Free Egyptians Party
Freedom and Justice Party
Al-Karama Party
National Progressive Unionist (Tagammu) Party
National Democratic Party Offshoots
Al-Nour Party
Socialist Popular Alliance Party
Al-Wafd Party
Al-Wasat Party

Syria -

Exclusion from the Arab Union did not halt Al Asad's gruesome inhuman assaults against Syria's people. More and more soldiers are defecting. The civilians now have some protection: the secret police cannot move so freely, and need constant army escorts. Some 50 Syrians were killed just in the past few days. Some were Syrian soldiers fighting for the regime. Defecting Syrian army personnel are providing some security to protesters, and to neighborhoods being raided. It seems the Syrians have learned from the Americans, with night raids, phone intercepts, enhanced interrogation, and the arming of pro-government militia. Iran of course is involved: the collapse of Shi'i Syria would sever Iran's direct contact with its proxies Hizbullah (in south Lebanon), and Hamas (in Gaza). The stakes are very high.

Saudi Arabia -

Two people were killed on the 24^th in the east of the country. There has been a small Shi'i dissident movement in Dhamman, Hotuf , and Mubarraz. Militants use motor-scooters to deliver their target packages. This sporadic low-level resistance worries the royal family: most believe Iran is behind it. These Shi'i Saudi towns also access into Qatar.

Other research indicates a Saudi elite very anxious about Iran. Last month, an agreement was signed with the USA for some $60 billion-worth of weapons.

When war erupted in Libya nine months ago, the price for a barrel of oil rose by almost one third. Everybody blamed it on the jitters: “the market had learned that the economy is based on oil, and that the Middle East might be important.” The speculators get their cut, pushing up prices, as is their intention, as do the oil companies themselves. The Saudi oil minister said the kingdom would raise prices to keep the world price steady. But the Saudi government did not do that, smarting from America's knee-jerk support for Greater Israel.

The Saudi royal family will likely anoint Prince Nayef of the Interior Ministry to be king.  He is a conservative who probably does not comprehend how destructive and divisive are the Wahhabi clergy it funds throughout the world.  Why can't they promote their other native son - Malik ibn Anas?

Yemen -

Ali Abdullah Saleh flies to Saudi Arabia, vowing to give up office and signing an agreement to turn over authority to his vice president. The protesters, encamped at the university, were jubilant. Can they be patient enough to allow for a peaceful transfer of power? Ali Saleh's relatives would have to go, but where to? Saudi? Some five protesters were killed on the 24^th. Why? Because the protesters know that the mere departure of Saleh is just the surface. His people are still in control. Many of them are rather innocent. Many no doubt possess skills that Yemen needs.

We cannot see the intrigues and allegiances of the tribes and sub-tribes. Sunni and Shi'a sects also are players. Socialists and free marketeers also abound.

How to make the transition from riot to office? Behind the scenes, all the various groups have been discussing options and preferences. But tactically, it is the younger shebab, armed with digital devices, which (often) has control over the crowds. As crowds are moved around, in response to army/police operations, secular educated folk worry that their wish for democracy has been hijacked by clerics.

Morocco -

Unrest over last July's constitution: it did not lead to democracy. The regime is intent on hanging on to power. The constitution is not democratic and will not lead to a constitutional monarchy. King Muhammad VI  has reason to keep the portfolios of religion, treasury and armed forces under his sole control. Demonstrations in several cities.

United States -

We'll close with a paragraph taken from Top Secret America: The Rise of the New American Security State, by Dana Priest and William M. Arkin, p.270

“As the Muslim Brotherhood moved to capitalize on the social and political void in Egypt, the most strategically important US ally in the evolving Middle East, Washington's gigantic intelligence apparatus did nothing to warn policymakers, who were completely unprepared to promote a palatable alternative. Top Secret America had become so focused on undoing one terrorist at a time that no one was seeing the big, strategic picture, and that was because, at the bottom of it all, it had grown so big and so unwieldy and no one, still, was actually in charge.”

Erosion of Basic Human Precepts and the Collapse of Conscience

تآكل المبادئ الأساسية للإنسان وانهيار الضمير.

Erosion of Basic Human Precepts and the Collapse of Conscience

"There is no doubt about degeneration: the only question is whether it will terminal." Here we look at the collapse of conscience, all around. Clerics in Iran, Arabia, Israel and the United States all hate each other, and make their congregants hate also. In doing this, they betray their own spiritual precepts. The imagery and narrative of the bible features genocide, an extreme demonization of your neighbor and your cousin (as Jews and Arabs are), serving aggressive state land theft or outright extermination of all those different from you. The Book of Revelation preaches genocide, a big war in Meggido, Armageddin,  against those who do not accept Jesus Christ as God himself.

Today, the most important question is why clerics, men of God, serve the darkest forces known to man - genocide. In Iran, in Gaza, in Israel and the United States, scriptures are being used tochart poklicy. This temptation is part laziness, part delusion. Because the USA backed and still backs, the Israeli settlement of the West Bank of Palestine, many bad things happen in response to that obvious aggression and land theft. Iran is building  nuclear weapons, ballistic missiles, chemical toxins, radioactive devices, plus new prisons to house dissidents.  Foolishly, the Palestinian clerics in Gaza keep proclaiming that they will drive Israelis into the sea, and kill all the Jews, playing right into the hands of the Jewish land thieves. Such genocidal talk is also found widespread in the United States. The clerics there will even talk about it before their congregations, or on the radio, with a flicker of shame.

But victims of such dark forces do not go down easily. If you were stripped of your land and other immovable possessions, you would fight, too. You would also fight if your relatives were blown ujp by terrorist bomb directed at innocent civilians.

This identification with biblical or Qur'anic imagery leads to 'a casual routine genocidal demonization of your neighbor and your cousin,'  Darkness grows in the minds of many clerics, and their people follow.

These extremists always end up fighting their own co-religionists, and their own congregation, because their paths to power are false and ultimately suicidal. Take the case of the United States in 2011. The Libyan civil war prompted jitters in the markets, the price of gasoline went up a third. The Saudis easily could have pumped more crude petroleum, bringing the price of gasoline down from $3.85/gallon back to $2.85, where it was when fighting erupted in Libya. But unhappy with America's long-time acquiescense in Likud's theft of  Arab Palestine, King Abdul-Azziz decided to... just do nothing. The economic fates of some 200 million Americans were sealed. The high oil prices pushed the prices of all commodities up and up.

In Arabia, the clerics are once again pushing scripture as a blueprint for genocide. In the United States, the lead Republican candidates support a war against Iran and will start one if elected 'to save Israel.'  All the Iranians have to do is dump a daily truck load of sea mines, and they'll float into the main channel of the Strait of Hormuz, cutting all tanker traffic. All the world's economies would be drastically affected. But again, scripture is operative.

The bible and the Qur'an include some genocidal passages, which now are being used, not just to justify violence against innocents, but as a blueprint for genocide and occupation. The Torah is actually quite clear: "Do not you use my name to cause harm: if you do, I will punish you most severely."   (Exodus 20:7)

Israel -

We are nearly finished with a 20-page paper entitled “A Phalanx of Lies: How Falsehoods Bedevil Peace in the Middle East.” The paper documents the role(s) of clerics, in Gaza, Israel, Hizbullah, Iran, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and in the USA as well, as they enforce the genocidal passages in their scriptures. All the scriptures feature genocidal passages, directives. This is because proto-states used their religion to make the waging of war possible. War had long been seen as 'poor form' in the Middle East, but today, revenge has replaced restitution.

Usually, secular governments had mitigated this demeaning racism, this vicious disparagement and demonization of those from other religions. But times have changed. Now scripture seems to offer a blueprint for political action, being it the theft of a country, Arab Palestine, or the murderous targeting of innocent civilians by Islamist and secular Arab terrorist organs. The evangelical Christian Zionists in America use the scripture to goad the Israelis on, to seize Arab land and drive those evil people out. The fact that they render life almost impossible for Christian Arabs as well, does not phase them. The bigotry is not just sectarian, but also racial. This is foolish, and a big lie: we are all closely related, come from the same source.

Why clerics get away with promoting, advising, directing, genocidal acts, is best addressed by examining those very early biblical images of the Middle East which float freely in our own divided psyches.

Even if Jewish fanatics manage to slay the other, the land will always remain 'stolen.' And thus cause more terror and war and poverty. 

Israel is of course a Muslim country as well as a Jewish one, but this is may change. Clerics in NYC are talking about 'opening the land' and 'cleansing all of Israel.' Political representation for the Arabs in the Knesset – some 2 members out of 120 – is just symbolic, a token. But still Americans are instructed  that "Israel is the only democracy in the Middle East.” That is simply not true. Arabs have their own traditions of democracy, expressed most locally in the local elections of the bedouin chief. Muhammad successors (the first four caliphs) were all elected. In village councils decisions are made in consultation. The showing of hands, which is voting, is often used.

In the Muslim world, violent Jihadists and terror-planning mullahs have been rolled back just about everywhere. The late terrorist Anwar al Aswlaki believed those Yemeni tribes in the east would protect him.

But why fight Arab terror organs while letting the much stronger Israelis take their land?  Isn't such an 'alliance' counterproductive to Israel?  By acquiescing, are not the Americans hurting themselves?

The destiny olf Israel is not to lord over others,  taking their land. It is to be a nation amongst other nations. That is where prosperity and mental health lies.

Right-wing Jewish settlers are now routinely targeting Arab Palestinians, not just in the West Bank, but inside Israel itself. An Arab mosque in northern Israel was recently burned down. Every time President Obama made a move for peace, these biblical fanatics announced more settlement housing around East Jerusalem and in the West Bank. If you want to see what these crazed mean people do to American Jews who talk of peace with their Arab neighbors, log on to www.massada2000.org.

Observers often mention the right-wing Likud and religious parties as being committed above all to a Greater Israel. International law and humanistic norms are seen as threats, obstacles. Such a naked seizure of land, required force, violence, surveillance. Of course these fanatics: falsehoods, selfishness, short-sightedness, injustice, oppression, the utter demonization of your neighbor and cousin, plus slow motion genocide of their Arab cousins.

The radical Jews enforce these lies: that Israel first developed monotheism. That the orthodox Jews are God's chosen people; that Jews are smarter than others; that clerics represent the human spirit; that scriptures provide morality and historical truth; that the bible is an accurate record of the Canaanite Hebrews; that Jews are the natural leaders of the West; that driving out the Arabs will solve anything; that American politicians are free from prejudice, such as to be an arbiter between Arab and Jews.

Peace talks have been going on and off for some four decades. Israel is about a hundred times more powerful than the Palestinian Arabs, so how can there be any fair, impartial justice through negotiations?

The Americans claim that status – impartial arbiter. Indeed, they have facilitated meetings between Arab and Israeli leaders. The Interim agreement of 1996 was a start, but this was rendered null and void by the Likud bullies led by the great whiner, Bibi Netanyahu. But what can the majority of decent Israelis and American do? The politics of symbolic appeal have led to genocide – terror, eviction from homes, teaching school children to hate – and these fanatics will viciously try to hurt anyone talking of peace.

Racism and sectarian bigotry is rising across the region. All Abrahamic religions revere scriptures that feature, even advise, genocide. Those of other faiths, even of other Abrahamic faiths, are demonized and disparaged – rejected. Why is it that it is the clerics who instigate and justify and even direct this aggression?

Radical fanatic clergy have taken over many mosques as well. All Mid East countries, except perhaps Saudi Arabia, have strong secular traditions; but these enlightened traditions are weakened when right-wing bigots are allowed to seize the commons, steal the debate. They are ,loud and pomp;ous and ignorant of their own scriptures. Nor do they access and build on science. To understand any of the three religions, one needs access to some 12 different social sciences, from evolutionary psychology to comparative religions to history. Physical sciences are needed as well: neuroscience, social neurobiology, pathological psychiatry, genetics. All these sciences have potent lessons, based on truth. They show the religious fundamentalists to be incompetent in their own domain.

A religious group becomes spiritually when it is used to bolster egos and dream. When a religious group becomes exclusive, telling its people that it is the only way to God, or that they are God's chosen, then we know it is a false way, possibly dangerous.

The Israeli government is also moving against the Arab Bedouin. These wanderers have never been much of a problem for the Israelis. But such is the control mania that these 'illegal' non-Jews, the original inhabitants of the land, are being forced to settled down in planned villages which can be watched and controlled. Of course the original Hebrews were nomads, too.

Since Israel is leading the (unthinking) American public, we need examine how the knee-jerk support by Republicans for Israel's annexation of Jerusalem and the West Bank, plays into and validates Al Qaida's accusations about the US – that it is Jewish controlled, aligned with the right-wing Israelis.

Note what happened, however. The Saudi king was supposed to pump more oil to keep prices down, but opted not to do so. So Americans pay $3.50 a gallon when it should be $2.65. The very life of the American people is now challenged.

Remember what God says about all this: “Do not use my name to cause harm. If you do, I will punish you most severely.” That's from the Book of Exodus, 20:7.

Egypt -

Big demonstrations in Tahrir Square in Cairo, against the military's attempts to become the main power in Egypt from here on in. The army is trying to put itself above the law. They forced the interim government and the Supreme Council to utter principles permitting the army to disband parliament, iof it wants. The army also wants command over its own budget. The military has been quiet, but such direct challenges to their undemocratic privileges, have never been tolerated by the Egyptian armed forces.

Syria -

Violence increases with some 73 killed on November 15, 55 on the 18^th, and many more after Friday prayers on the 18^th of November. The Al Asad regime has de-ligitimized itself by firing into its own unarmed citizens. Still, it commands considerable popular support, in Damascus and in Aleppo (Haleb).

The decision by the Arab league on Nov. 12 to evict Syria, caused such vitriole and anguish in Syrian officialdom, that the League opted to give Syria another three days to cease and desist its attacks on protesters, before enforcing the eviction.

The Syrian regime is running out of money by which to pay all its henchmen. For example, over a million Syrians work for various 'intelligence' organs and police. The army is savagely controlled, since the lower ranks are largely Sunni.

Meanwhile, living conditions in Homs, Hama, Latikia, Dera'a, Suweida, Ar Rustan, Deir az Zaur,Ar Rakkah – have deteriorated such that life is challenged. Some of the sanctions prevent supplies reaching the people. Turkey is about to turn off the electricity to northern Syria, which will impact squarely on the loyal upper middle classes of Aleppo. The Syrian regime turned off electricity to Homs and Hama and Dera'a, some six months ago.

The reader can follow the Syrian crisis back to the winter of 2011 by accessing the articles listed on the right margin. You will see how afraid we were, are, that the unrest in Syria will turn into a sectarian civil war.

The protesters in Syria have recently been provided security by defecting soldiers. From what we can determine, these are the weapons used by the opposition (to protect itself), not imports of assault rifles and RPGs from Lebanon by the Muslim Brotherhood. Back in the spring, Al Asad ordered shipments of automatic weapons and ammo to Alewite and Christian communities, to defend themselves. But there are Christians and Shi'a in the opposition movement. No doubt some of those arms are seen today guarding peaceful protesters from the murderous response of the crazed authorities.

Even as the Syrian conflict festers like a wound, threatening to grow into a war, we remain strangely optimistic that Al Asad will eventually stand down his forces. But we find no mystery in the regime's rationale: they really do believe they are up against the Brothers. The Syrian leaders are well aware of the primacy of revenge in their societies. They've killed too many to now stand down. They see their survival is at stake. So any ceasefire agreement would need to have an agreement by the democratic opposition, not to stage occupations or riots or attack or tie up government buildings, while the ceasefire is in effect.

In the posting before the last one, Nov.4, we laid bare the sequence of events that need happen for a protest group to evolve into a functioning democracy.

By John Paul Maynard

The author is, amongst other things, the moderator/instructor for the on line discussion group on Islamic civilization, for the Graduate Alumni Association, Harvard University. He has worked in Israel and Palestine on a variety of projects relating to archeology, land law and theomania. He has also studied in Jordan and Syria, and earlier, in the 1970s, he received a Watson foundation fellowship to study the nomads in Afghanistan, Uzbekistan, Iran and Turkey. His doctoral work is on land law in the Middle East. The author's study of reforms in Islamic law can be read at www.middleeastspeculum.blogspot.org. His translations of Arabic and Persian literature can be found at www.hafizshirazi.blogspot.com.

Power Play -

Power Plays

The run of events has set the Middle East scene in motion, so the whole 'table' is spinning.

- Elections in Egypt in two weeks (Nov28)

- Change in the Saudi leadership

- Atrocities in Syria

- a Palestinian bid for enhanced status at the UN

- Israel's release of over a thousand Palestinian prisoners, for one soldier.

- a proactive Arab league, willing to roast a rogue regime

- Russia acts (again) to block sanctions on Syria and Iran

- a $60 billion arms deal between Saudi Arabia and the USA.

- a resurgent PKK, backed by a resurgent Iran

- pending scheduled withdrawal of American forces from Iran and Afghanistan

-  accommodating the Islamists in Tunisia after the election

- women participation in civil disobedience in Israel and Saudi Arabia.

- the breakup of the Yemen, the ancient bridge to Africa.

The Middle East has been tied fast and 'secure' going back before World War One, but is now in motion, as individuals, parties and nations vie for power.

In Egypt, ten months of discourse and negotiation led to no agreement on principle, so we expect the tensions between secular and sectarian to increase. On October 25^th, the Ikhwan al-Muslimiyya (Muslim Brotherhood or MB) breaks its own pledge not to field candidates to over 50% of the available parliamentary seats. Come Nov. 24, the MB will be competing for 77% of the seats.

The Muslim Brotherhood is fighting politically, against organized socialists, women's groups, government mullahs and police, members of the former regime (and the NDP/Wafd party), the moneyed elite, the Copt minority, intellectuals, the press (and other media), but will have no problem reaching a plurality for the simple reason that the above 'actors' are seldom seen or heard outside Cairo and Alexandria.

Government in Egypt has been continuous. Led by the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces (SCAF), many elite groups have remained in place. The army of course owns and manages many companies. Then there is the civilian elite – captains of industry. The religious hierarchy remains untouched. Government ministries, particularly those of tourism, minerals, agriculture, the economy, and security, have been running continuously.

That might be seen as a victory for conservative forces except that, again, these actors are seldom seen outside Cairo and coastal Egypt. So the Muslim leaders are up against a power-possessing cluster of elite organizations and departments. Have they learned to accommodate the secular technocrats? One recalls the much-publicized 'alliance; between Muhammad Al Baradai (former chief of the UN's nuclear regulatory organ) and the Muslim Brothers, led by Muhammad Badie. Al Baradei's group became an umbrella for youth groups, secular liberals, as well as the MB.

The MB is expected to win about 43% of the upcoming vote, a plurality. All sorts of maneuvers have been going on, as secular and sectarian tussle for the levers of money and power in Egypt. On April 30, 2011, , the MB changed its name to the Freedom and Justice Party. They sought to ally themselves with the military. But Field Marshall Tantawi (the Sphinx) and those officers led by Lt. Gen. Sami Hafez Enan, issued a fiat back in September, that a full one third (1/3^rd) of the seats in the parliament will go to small, independent groups. So the original 'alliance' with the Brothers has turned into a struggle for influence. After elections, these tensions will likely grow. For chief, we believe the Egyptians will choose Amr Musa, former foreign minister and the recent chief of the Arab League.

Mass demonstrations organized by the MB are expected to occur in the next few days.

As we'll see, there's enough bad blood to go around. The MB leaders have enough to do to counter, on the streets, the Salafis. Both believe everything question, including ideas, are from the Devil.

Saudi Arabia - The recent death of Prince Sultan, long-time minister of defense, has set in motion a struggle of influence. (Sultan was heir apparent). Prince Abdul Rahman, vice minister of defense, was fired, replaced by Prince Salman, mayor of Riyadh. This inner struggle comes when Said Arabia is preparing to receive new military equipment from the USA (some $60 billions worth).

When in Vienna last spring the OPEC members had a fist fight, refusing any increase of production, and putting oil prices onto a higher plateau, Saudi king Abdallah bin Abd al-Aziz informed America that it would increase production. But, if you listened to the fall-out attending America's rejection of any enhanced status at the UN, you would have heard the kin g say: “The special relationship is over.” So the Saudis did not in fact increase production by enough to offset the foolish jitters in the markets, when the people of Libya revolted against Qaddafi.

Note: So, once again, prosperity evades the USA, due to stupid errors. How can the USA possibly be a just arbiter when it acquiesces in the theft and annexation of land vouchsafed to Arab Palestine by the international community? Have we forgotten that Israel and Arab Palestine were born together, legally. The existence of one gives rights and blessing to the existence of the other. Do we abandon that law?

Alas, the Israelis, the Americans conform to the extremist Muslim fringe: Is it still the way of the sword – law, negotiation, does not apply. The Americans, Israel, Iran, the Gaza Palestinians, the Syrian regime, believe in the sword, and have prepared themselves just for this path. Peace is not really a serious issue or problem. Negotiations with others are not necessary if you are blessed by God.

For one thing, the political players are taking their cues from God, from scripture. Too many people are talking to God in the Middle East!

Syria - Thirty four civilians die after prayers on the 11th of Nov. Two weeks ago, the Arab League issued its strongest warning to the regime of Al Asad, but Al Asad did not hestitate to deploy armor into civilian neighborhoods, to support the secret police in rounding up “all terrorist suspects.” Homs has become the center of the protest, with 10 people dying a day, on average. Will the Arab League kick the Syrian regime out of the League? We don't know. But that seems to be the logical next step.

We were horrified at the weaponization of the conflict. But many times armed protesters, led by dissident army officers, have prevented the slaughter of innocents by the Baathi forces. But this has only enraged the regime. So the stand off will persist. The members of the regime know their own survival is at stake.  B ut we should not give up on seeking a negotiated settlement. Such an agreement would have to gurantee the safety of many Baathi leaders, plus the minorities: Alewites (Nasiris), Christians (of some four kinds), Jews, Kurds, and Palestinians.

Turkey has given Syria strong warnings, and has deployed strong armor along its borders. Syrian forces have already entered into Turkey, to grab defecting soldiers and police.

Turkey - Turkey has become a player. Just a year ago it was trumpeting its tripartite agreement with Syrian and Iran. Earlier it had forced Al Assad to stop harboring and arming the PKK. Iran and Syria are long been allies, and Turkey once again is faced with a war in its extreme southeast.

Israel – another wave of demonstrations, this time by women. As the ultra-orthodox rose on the back of the Likud's settlement policies, pushing into Jerusalem and the West Bank, the majority of Israelis, who are secular, or reform, are powerless to pursue the peace they want, because the leaders have used the bible to win, then to prosecute their very dark strategy of stealing an entire Arab nation.

I say this as one who has worked for the Israeli government. I echo the feelings and thoughts of younger Israelis of some empathy, who hate their own inhuman government.

Democracy has major weaknesses. The uneducated bigots all get to vote. Those who want negotiations, those who have studied social problems, those who know the world at large, are all eclipsed as once again, the politics of symbolic appeal blots out the politics of prosperity, peace and reason. Such symbolic throwbacks to the past, precludes practical solutions, long-range trade and peace inside your own country.

There is enough blame to go all around: religion is often used to persecute others. So remember the injunction: “Do not use my name to cause harm. If you do, I will punish you with especial severity.” (Ex.20:7)

-John Paul Maynard

Organizing Democracy after a Revolution تنظيم الديمقراطية بعد الثورة

تنظيم الديمقراطية بعد الثورة

Organizing Democracy after Revolution

هذه ليست نظرية ولكن الخطوات الفعلية التي نجحت ثورة كدولة ديمقراطية.

The seven-point scheme below is not a theory but actual nodes of an octave as it would be if completed. Deviations can occur at any step, and the process stopped.

1. ceasefire

2. release of prisoners

3. talk, and an agreement to talk more

4. a shared study of principles held in common, laws

5. changes in laws, some immediately

6. evolution of party platforms

7. elections

This is what it looks like when the octave completes itself. A diverging group of political actors agree to cooperate to make a new kind of government. That's why a ceasefire is the first required step -  it all comes out of that imposed local peace. The Arab revolutions  are impacting on seven levels all at once. Here is the octave of societal man:

do – the relation I have with myself

re – what happens between two people

mi – three people – the family or firm

First INTERVAL – no semitone between mi and fa

fa – the village

so – town

la – regions, counties, provinces

si – nation

Second INTERVAL – no semitone

do – (of the 2^nd octave) all nations, world unity

Any historical event, like a revolution, impacts, occurs, on each of the above levels all at once, or in sequence.. The key is to see how the big vibrations effect and affect each level. At the moment, world leaders are gathering around Israel's gross disregard for basic norms. Even if the Jews, armed with the bible and American money, succeed in driving the Arabs out of the West Bank of Palestine, the land will always remain stolen property. And thus fuel terror and the build-up to catastrophic nuclear war, an exchange of missiles by Iran and Israel.

We've also written about the rasher of political players, including the new ones from the Arab street. Americans think they have influenced the Muslim Arab people, but this is incorrect. The Arabs are no stranger to representative democracy. Bedouin chiefs are generally elected, and the tent of the sheikh is always open, even to the poorest of petitioners.  I have attended meetings where people ending in a show-of-hands. Then there is Islam, strongly equalitarian

This time the fundamentalist clergy will not get away with it without cost. Jewish, Christian, Muslim faiths cannot be corrupted, as they are, by loud, political clerics. Gaza, Israel, Iran show what happens when the clergy control politicians and the masses. America, too, uses biblical images and narratives to define themselves, to carry their hopes after death, to make discriminations between other peoples, including your own society. The past five presidents believe in the Apocalypse, and some were tempted to become a part of it.

 Let us list the players, the groups arguing their platforms: ( in North Africa, Yemen, Syria.)  They range from from kids on the street, high school students, most with cell phones; local Muslim mullahs and imams, of some nine different stripes; businessmen, on all levels; women as family members and as political associations; banks and holding companies;  educators, teachers professors, scientists; lawyers; labor unions and professional associations; national Muslim leaders; former government employees; pensioners; Muslim media groups, some competing; minority representatives; women organizations, incl, profession associations; older established parties, like the socialists and conservative political associations; expatriates returning; the government ministries and departments, the police, the army and intelligence services; former political prisoners; the dispossessed, the destitute;  and the grieving; the disabled, – the sick and wounded, the lame; big farmers and small farmers; transportation companies, big and small; the unemployed; university students; housewives and homemakers.

So you see it is a big field of players, each with their interests, but generally overlapping. They all share the same dream of freedom and prosperity. Can so many different constituencies  agree on a form of government? That's the questions the people in the Region ask themselves. They talk and get to know each other, each other's arguments and priorities. The process requires referencing a common moral and legal traditions, written and unwritten. The groups find common ground in basic humane principles: how to care for the sick and wounded; how to get food and fuel in; finding jobs for returning emigres – many professionals, and much more.

The Arab revolutions of 2011-2012 have had no one leader, or any leaders, which is a very good sign for two reasons. Are leaders really necessary to a society where most everyone is highly alert, proactive and responsible?

The Arab revolutions were very broad-based revolts, based on common grievances and shared expectations. Only Libya has seen a complete destruction of a regime. But the people were morally out-raged at their core, largely at police behavior by states. It started first amongst the Sahrawis in southwest Algeria in the summer of 2010 – a continual protest against Morocco's failure to hold a referendum of independence in the Southern (or Western or Spanish) Sahara; then the autumn 2010's protests in Algeria itself, in the cities along the coast, and in the Kabyle mountains to the east; the Algerian immolations spread to Tunisia, and, most importantly, the Algerian protesters realized they could disobey the authorities, the police and army and al mukhabarat. All the other revolts were triggered by the realization of this simple fact - that crowds can stare down the police, go up against the army. So I commend the brave protesters, many women, outside Algiers, in late December 2010 who stared down the police after taking casualties from their fire.

Tunisia and Egypt and Libya revolutions followed, completing the above process/octave: an elected gov., with one ultimately responsible, an elected PM with enough executive power as to cut through the bureaucracies and the chaos to make things happen.

But the revolution itself was not a rational process, thought out and planned, but a spontaneous emotional self-liberation, as protesters grew to realize that they could use civil disobedience to take control of their countries.

No intel group has any complete accurate record of all the conversations in places like Algiers and Cairo. Except for Lib ya, former regime officials are still in control, not just army, intel and police, but businessmen who were providing definite key services: food, fuel, water, housing, information and telecommunications, medicine.

The election of moderate Muslim associations is legit because these groups also, provide necessary services for poor populations which the state cannot provide.

The above octave of political organization is useful for examining the dynamically tragic situation in Syria. Just a few weeks ago we said the situation was all locked up, frozen. The Syrian regime of Al Asad deployed whole divisions of tanks against small towns and suburbs – indiscriminate killing, and many raids by the secret police.

On the 2^rd of October, the Arab League offered to broker a truce. On the 3^rd, the Al Asad regime said it agreed to stand down and hold talks. On the 4^th, today, Friday, the so-called liberal opposition in Syria refused to heed any such talks or standing down. Readers know we predicted this.

This refusal by the opposition to talk peace with the authorities is a product of all the blood and suffering, and the refusal of the Syrian army and secret police units, to just back off. A systematic round-up (and execution) of protest leaders is continuing, with some 20 killed in and around Homs on Thursday, and another 180 seriously injured all unarmed protesters, or men resisting arrest.

Why is it so difficult to just proceed peacefully to new elections? Because that requires talking face to face with a hideous machine which eats people arbitrarily. Many thought Bashar al Asad was a reformer, opening up Syria to big business and private banking. But ten years of this led to a widening disparity of incomes. Well-connected families in Damascus and Aleppo did very well, while many, many educated people, ready to work, were frozen out and impoverished, as commodity prices kept rising.

There is a certain raw pride in revolutionaries, a confidence and belief necessary for unarmed people to go up against a heavily-armed state apparatus. This is how and why many die in these things. It also precludes or makes difficult, any negotiations and local discussion of the immediate needs of the population. Even a simple ceasefire is rendered void, because the regime sees the refusal-to-talk on behalf of the popular opposition, as a sign that more war is the only course. For the regime is fighting for its survival.

But events in Tunisia, Egypt and Libya have un-nerved the Syrian regime. Bashar can see his probable fate all too well. There will be not relenting, no let up in the state's prosecution of its war against 'armed terrorists' and 'foreign-led extremists.'

The opposition has put together a National Council, committed to democracy. Half its members are in Turkey (and other countries) and half in Syria. This integration of revolutionary committees across Syria is a story in itself. Given government control of the roads, how could delegates meet and work out a governm,ent-in-waiting?

One reason is that the paid informers long used by the regime, have been rolled up. There is still traffic on the roads: people can get around, but not everywhere, and not all the time. The regime has no choice but to deploy low-level Syrian army units to man roadblocks, and these are usually Sunni recruits, draftees. Hence they let the opposition to move around.

The Arab League is lock-on to Syria, and will not relent in proffering peace talks. But just getting a ceasefire is proving impossible. That is unfortunate, as a simple ceasefire requires no effort, no expense, except a little dialogue between the parties.

The regime's story of how it hanged tough in the face of defecting soldiers and secret police, executing many who refused to shoot dead unarmed fellow citizens., is a poignant epic, full of heroism and rank evil.

The opposition story is even more amazing: unarmed people going up against tanks. This incredible bravery was seen in Libya, in the sieges of Mishrata, Zawiye and Tripoli, where the people went up against terrible odds.

How can such bravery be transferred to constitutional government at peace? Revolutions may succeed in overthrowing a regime, but fail to evolve just government. The answer is in everyone talking and figuring out what to do. A coup d'etat involves just a few actors, but a real revolution involves many thousands of people. In the Arab revolutions of 2010-12, just about everybody is affected in one way or another. Such a broad based call for justice and fair food and fuel prices means that an even more broadly based government will evolve, develop.

The fourth node in the above octave (organizing democracy) refers to orienting one's thinking to existing legal traditions, written and unwritten. In Libya, for example, the new interim government pledges to base their law on the Shari'a and fiqh. Tremors ran through the stock market and American security buffs. One big reason why the Shari'a is mentioned is that Islam is the glue that holds the Libyan tribes together. Qaddafi had tried to destroy or usurp both civil and sectarian jurisprudence, and even the courts themselves. For four decades the people had no independent judiciary: justice was mocked. The citizenry were not encouraged or rewarded for thinking that fairness and human rights was natural. Indeed, it was a crime to think that way.

Many Muslim fundamentalists have solemnly proclaimed that Islam is not compatible

with democracy. How can they say that? The first four caliphs were elected. In fact, most Bedouin elect their chiefs. Muhammad supported elections not just because they were fair and efficient, able to adapt, but mostly because he always accentuated personal responsibility.

Democracy assumes individual responsibility. People are asked to think for themselves, and be a part of choosing the ruler. In complex modern societies, the voting citizen is assumed to have investigated the critical issues facing the nation. He or she must know the world at large, as well as their own societies. Of course this rarely happens. But it is critical that complex societies find the correct solutions, for without right thinking, these societies go down quickly. It is the norm not the exception that leaders get these complex issues right. History shows that dynasties, nations, empires succumb to mistakes made in high places. But most muddle through. Almost always, the poor and the middle suffer.

In the USA, for example, most people still believe that banks lend money for growing businesses or to invent new things and further innovation. Traditionally, their profits were made on loans and mortgages. But that ended a decade ago. Since then, banks make their money not by investing, but by ripping off its poorer customers using fees: overdraft charges, higher interest rates for loans, and debit and credit card fees.

The issue is pertinent because the social equity protest movement, following the Arab protests, has become a global phenomena, spontaneous, and without leaders. The economic costs of these revolutions has been extraordinarily high. All those in Cairo and Sana'a living on $2 a day now live on $1 a day, or less. Supplies may arrive, but paying for them is made problematic due to the soaring food and commodity prices, and the need to set up a new distribution system.

Ultimately, the way poorer countries can access credit on the market is determined by the ratio of imports over exports. The Americans put that system in place at the Bretton Woods hotel, New Hampshire, in July 1944. It happened over the protests of the other delegations. The proper rule was to base credit on per-capita exports. Such a policy, put in place in 1944, would have created a different kind of world, one much more favorable to free enterprise than the present system.

Businessmen and women are flocking to the capitals, hoping to be part of the erection of the new societies. Investors outside might intervene, but only if the rule of law is enforced. Law and legislation are potent tools in re-building a society. All Muslim countries have secular traditions: civil and criminal law traditions, usually taken in pieces from Europe.

Americans are right in criticizing Islam for letting terrorists and stupid mullahs usurp the religion. Stoning and the cutting off of hands, the persecution of non-Muslims, the repression of women, terrorism – these are not part of the original Shari'a. We even know how they crept into these Muslim legal traditions (of which there are at least five).

The blackening of the Shari'a in Europe and America is unfortunate. Americans know only the five bad implants, but nothing as to the 40-odd spheres of human experience which the Shari'a addresses with admirable justice.

The main principle in Islamic law is ijtihad and fiqh. Both infer struggle – a hard struggle to decide correctly. It is just this effort, this competence, which is required in building a new country. People put aside well-established grievances and stereotypes, to work together to solve real problems.

It's pilgrimage time, and Saudi Arabia's top cleric, Mufti Sheikh Abdul Aziz al Sheikh, call for peace: negotiations, not blood. A delegation of several thousand Syrians traveled to Mecca, praying for Syrian unity. "Let us stand shouldert to shoulder."

The Arab League was upset that the Al Asad regime is using lethal force after it agreed to seek a ceasefire. But the Syrian National Council chief Burhan Galioun, wants no talks with the regime. Why not set the regime on a course to divest itself of power? Why the war?

-John Paul Maynard