The Revolutions after One Year

Egyptians Celebrate Anniversary -

The anniversary extended over a week, as demonstrators are searched by Brothers (Ikhwan al Muslimiyya, the Muslim Brotherhood , before entering Tahrir Square. The army has commissioned the Brothers to run security, arguing that since the Islamists took some 75% of the vote in the recent parliamentary elections, they are entitled to run security.

Of course the weird relations between the army and the Brothers have been on-and-off-and-on again, a cycle going back to the late 1930s. The Salafis were able to grab some 25% (or more) of the vote because the army put them on a legal platform and allowed Wahhabi clerics from the Gulf Arab states (except Oman, Iraq and Bahrein) to fund these Muslim organs.

The much more tolerant sufi groups have long been targets by takhfiris in this ten-year-old Muslim Inquisition. Most Egyptian Muslims have no choice as their culture becomes mere white bread spiced with coercion. Following the Wahhabis, other Muslims can be targeted (to be slandered, wounded and killed) simply because they dress in western clothes or read books.

The Egyptian Block has done a decent job in getting over superficial ideological differences. Socialists mix with businessmen, the educated with the labor unions, the young with the old, and the men with the women.. Unfortunately, most professional associations have fallen under MB control or influence..

Now the focus shifts to writing a constitution and holding presidential elections this summer. The street, however, wants SCAF to give up its power. So the revolution rolls on.

Morocco: Is This Revolution or What?

The group-immolation of five students opens once again factors of raw dissent. The February 20^th Movement is composed of the loyal, established opposition, thereby excluding many youth. Back in March 2011, the King, Muhammad the 6^th, reorganized the entire political arena. The Berber language, Tamazight, was legalized, the judiciary was made independent, and the king opted to have parliament choose the PM. The large Committee for Justice and Benevolence signed on, even though the king kept for himself, the religious ministries, the armed forces and foreign relations.

The November 25 elections were deemed free and fair. Some 45% of voters turned out, up from 37% in the elections of 2007. The large PJD (Party of Jutsice and Developmet) took 107 out of 395 seats, while the Istiqlal (Independence) Party took 60 out of 395 seats. The promising Party of Authenticity and Modernity, led by Fuad Ali Al Himan, did not fare well in the elections.

Yemen - Ali Abdullah Saleh departs for America

The moment most have been waiting for – the resignation and disappearance of President Saleh – occurred last week when he flew, via Oman, to the USA. He'll undergo a surgery aimed at helping his nervous system.

Yemen has slowly been changing. Life in Sana'a and other cities is returning to normal. The economy is so shattered that even a little clean water, NG, food, gasoline – goes a long way to restoring chances for long-term survival.

But in the cities of Ta'is and Aden refugees are swamping the flimsy facilities and testing the tempers of everyone involved. A group called the Ansar Ash Shari'a (Helpers of the Legal Way), no doubt connected with al Qaidah, is conducting terror operations.

Some 70,000 refugees from the east have flooded into Aden. They are being housed 70-a-room in local schools. UN offices are filling and placing sandbags all around its compound. The UN is a prime target, as the terrorists prefer to render the country completely destitute, as a way to power.

High tension remains between the opposition (complex) and the government; and within the army (many dissident soldiers) and with the opposition (the street challenges the traditional dissidents).

Readers of this blog have known of the humanitarian needs of the Yemenis since February 2011.

Though US operations last autumn killed Anwar Aulaki and other leaders of AQAP (Al Qaida of the Arabian Peninsula, this is no way ended the group. Furthermore, other Al Qaida-type terrorists may be crossing from Somalia to the Yemen. Will Yemen become another Somalia? Indeed, the clash of interests and identities may well draw in terrorist elements.

Yemen is not like Somalia, being much more complex. Yemenis are master farmers, while Somalis are expert camel breeders. Maybe all the diverging elements can check each other in ways that bring them together in a new government.

Central Government Failing in Libya -

The Benghazi offices of the National Transitional Council were overrun by street-generated armed former soldiers and Islamist ideologues. The government cannot persuade dissident rebel groups from handing in their weapons. The towns and cities remain under municipal control, and some rebel groups, tribally based, like the Mishurata, the Zawiya and Tripoli groups, have set up prisons to hold some 50,000 prisoners – those accused of working for the Qaddhafi entity. There is a civil rights catastrophe occurring and the government is not in control.

Syria Prepares for Another Month of Arab League Monitoring -

Both the regime and the protesters are preparing for another month of Arab League monitoring. This time we believe casualties will go down, not up. Too many killed in Syria – at least 6,000. Fighting may break out with Turkey – iof the regime goes after dissidents across the border.

Conditions are extreme in Homs and Hama, in Dar'a and Idlib, and the AL monitoring should lead, if not to peace, then to the transport of food (and water) into these cities. Just as important are seeds and plastic sheeting to make hot houses.

The regime does not care about western sanctions, as its survival is at stake and also because, the Russians will support it. While the situation is not black and white, it is true that the regime has discredited itself through the wanton killing of citizens simply demonstrating.

The author, JPM, is the monitor/instructor for the on line discussion group on Islamic civilization hosted by the graduate alumni office, Harvard University, Cambridge, Massachusetts.

Your comments are more useful than you might assume.

Genocidal Projects Underway

ARAB LEAGUE meets in Cairo: Will Monitoring Continue?

The question is whether the League monitors will be renewed, and if renewed, how it will change in Syria. Monitoring is something the League is attempting to do in Yemen, Somalia and the Sudan. Nigeria too is being closely studied, as war ignites in the north.

The Arab League has undergone a striking change: the establishment sided with the people on the streets. Actually, it is not nearly so simple. Paranoid conservative actors like Omar Bashar in Syria and Bashar Al Asad in Syria and Ali Abdullah Saleh in Yemen, keep the League out of peacemaking in any of these places.

Genocidal Projects Underway

It must have been the invasion and occupation of Iraq that set the Mid East table spinning. In any case, the clerics have given us a set of genocidal projects: Iran is making a nuclear weapon and ballistic missiles. In Palestine and Lebanon radical clerical elites teach genocide to their congregations, against Jews. In Saudi Arabia, militant Wahhabi clerics teach intolerance, ever takfir, licensing the slaying of elected officials and their staffs. In Israel, hard-line rabbis direct investors and settlers to roll up Arab Palestine – a slow motion genocide. Meanwhile, in the USA, Republican candidates for president call for a Crusade against the Persians immediately.

Behind all these countries, including Israel, clerics lurk, book in hand. They want a return to the early Medieval period, when religions clashed. Of course they are a minority, a usurping unelected group, deluded and aggressive, murderous. But they go for power and enforce bad laws.

Elections in Egypt - An Islamist sweep

With the final third voting, the Egyptian people has given 70% o0f parliamentary seats to Islamists. In today's elections, the Muslim Botherhood took 47%, while the hard-line Salafis took some 25%. The remainer went mostly to the Egyptian bloc, which is an umbrella for the liberal parties, business and minorities. For example, Naguib Sawiris, a Copt, directs a business-friendly group which won support across Egypt. 


Libyan rebels seize offices in Benghazi -

The National Transitional Council now has to be mobile after hundreds of demonstrators seized NTC offices in the eastern city of Benghazi. Even in Benghazi, people are not giving up their weapons. The problems today stem from tribal rivalries, and from the lack of any democratic history.


Saudi Arabia -  The Kingdom pulls out of the Arab League

The Saudis are very angry with Hafiz al Asad and his regime.On the 21st, they pulled out of the Arab League. The Saudis are now aligned with Qatar, and the UAE. Also on Jan.21, Saudi Foreign Minister gives a speach where he demands that Russia and China stop vetoing the vetoes.


Syria -  The mystery of Douma

FSA takes over Douma, a suburb of Damascus. Syrian army stays on the ring road, as the FSA troops pull back. Strange. Now the government forces cannot patrol in most regions of Damascus. All the forces connected with the regime have fallen back.


Yemen - Ali Saleh leaves Yemen for the USA

Giving an empassionate speach to a picked crowd, Ali Abdullah Saleh flies to the USA for medical treatment. Sana'a erupts in spontaneous expressions of joyful anxiety.

The Need for Islamic Legal Reform -

My own graduate work was in fiqh and shari'a so it is easy to see how the bad laws got into the shari'a texts. Stoning, for example, was a old Jewish law, attested in both Old and New Testaments. The cutting off of hands and gouging out of eyes was a Byzantine law taken from the Gospels “If your hand offend thee, cut it off. If thy eye offend thee, pluck it out...” Terror is condemned in the Qur'an, at each step, from its conception as a plot, to its execution to the consequences. As for Jihad, there is no theory of war in the Qur'an: a warning against 'mischief on the earth and corruption in it' offering rights and rites for its victims.

What the Radical Clerics Want -

Only the radical clerics want war. But they have used their assumed status, to influence other simple-minded bigots. They play on fears, and don't care much about the other. For example, in a recent prisoner-exchange, Bibi Nitanyahu traded some 1,300 HAMAS prisoners, for one Israeli. A good bargain, in their view, as (to them) the life of a Jew is worth more than any number of Arab dead.

These shared genocidal projects are beyond being shameless, or noxious. The costs of their crimes and damages can never be calculated. The Mid East is going nuclear. By the year 2016, Iran may have ready its bombs and missiles.

Sometimes the ball is in the Russians court. They support Syria. Russia's only base in the Med is at Tartus, Syria. It is a client state. Relation between Tehran and the Kremlin are more complex. The only peaceful scenario I can foresee features Russia putting the squeeze on Iran.

Regional Changes -

As we noted last week, there are regional changes underway. Turkey has been deeply embarrassed by its naïve 'reunion' with Iran and Syria – disabused. In some place, like Yemen and Egypt, life is turning back to normal: some much-needed supplies are flowing in, though not nearly enough.

Egyptian politics are much more volatile than the press has it. Everyday there are incidents. It's a big country, concentrated along the Nile and in the Delta. The Copts are taking a beating, and curiously, many Muslims have vowed to protect their Christian minority..

Tunisia has the best chance, it seems, of returning to pre-revolution 'prosperity.'

('We've been down so long it looks like up to us.')

Algeria deserves constant study, for several reasons. Mass demonstrations still occur, but the government has done some amazing things, like increasing fresh water by a third, using desalination.

In Sudan, in Jongle state in the South of North Sudan, the Lau Nuer and the Merlei tribe are battling it out, while Sudan prosecutes another genocidal campaign against former SLA people in Kordofan.

People are placing bets on whether Syria, Yemen, Sudan and Nigeria will erupt in a civil wars – led by clerics. The odds are, respectively, one in 4; one in 3, one in 2. and one in 3.

Curiously, sectarianism is a subliminal, if not direct, element, in all these genocidal projects. In the United States, amongst the Southern Republicans, the debates were led by Mike Huccabee, a fundamentalist preacher.

Anti-intellectualism is rife, not just in the southern USA, but virtually all countries we looked. Ignoring history and science will get us nowhere.

Meanwhile, the table is turning now, the clock ticking.

-John Paul Maynard, Harvard University

Geopolitical Changes in the Middle East

Egypt - The first Anniversary of the Revolution of January 25

One year after Egypt's revolution, Egyptians are still trying to sort things out. Just a month ago we saw more demonstrations in Tahrir Square against the military's assumption of power. In November and December 2011 there occurred other demonstrations: by the minority Coptic community, and by women.

Both fear the emergence of the Muslim Brotherhood (and Salafis). Outside observers are right to be concerned, as well. The MB and the Salafis see everything western, every idea, every tool, every medicine, as evil. All non-Muslims were kafirs – infidels who can be killed with God's sanction.

Though relatively small in number, the Islamists intend to force all others to believe and think as they do. They err in saying, as they once did, that democracy and Islam are incompatible. Our readers are familiar why Islam and democracy can get along just fine.

The Egyptian armed forces and intelligence services present a huge obstacle to prospective democrats in Egypt. Field Marshal Hussein Tantawi 'the Sphinx' says very little. During the summer of 2011, we received reports that the army and the Muslim Brotherhood have reached a power-sharing agreement. In December, we heard that this alliance has soured.

On the 14^th of January, Muhammad El Baradei ends his campaign for president. He did not feel the coming elections will be free and fair. Originally, El Baradei had brokered an agreement, an alliance, between his party and the Muslim Brotherhood.

But that soured in November, for reasons not known.

Yemen – Parliament Confused

Ali Abdullah Saleh is seeking immunity from prosecution for himself, his close associates, and his family. Such an immunity has to be voted into law by the Yemeni parliament. But on January 16, the parliament postponed the vote.

The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) has long advised immunity and elections. But in their peace agreement(s) they did not specify which comes first: elections? Or immunity?

At present there is a stand-off between Saleh and his Revolutionary Guards, and dissident soldiers controlled by the Hashid tribe, led by dissident Maj. Gen. Ali Mohsen. Back in June, Hashid warriors attacked the presidential palace, wounding Ali Abdullah Saleh.

With the revolution losing its force, thanks to incompatible differences inside the opposition, gangs of armed thugs are raising hell in Taiz and elsewhere. Aden, too, has recently seen kidnapping and robbery. Often the soldiers and police observe the shake-downs, but do nothing. The Southern Movement cannot control its clandestine terror cells. On Jan. 15, there was a protest demonstration of police and soldiers – demanding plots of land on which they might construct their houses.

Al Qaeda has been scene walking freely in Aden and in some eastern cities. They drive Toyota Hi-Lux trucks. One leader is Tariq Al Dhahab, who commands some 400-500 warriors.

Syria - Arab League ponders intervention

The peaceful protests in Syria degenerated into a civil war as the regime used brutal force indiscriminately. After some 10 months, some 6,000 have been killed. There is another 30,000 wounded and some 12,000 protesters still in prison. Many of those will not survive.

Many believe the conflict has turned into a religious war, between the dispossessed Sunni majority, and the ruling Shi'i Allewite regime of Bashar Al Asad. The widening of the Sunni/Shi'a rift has prompted changes in the constellation of regional power.

Turkey and Iran are watching themselves become enemies. The Iranians want to send the Syrian regimes arms and ammo, but its trucks are intercepted transiting Turkey. The Saudis and other Gulf states all favor the protesters – because they are Sunnis.

The Arab League did not finesse its visit to Syria. But in the coming year, we see the League sorting out its various potential roles – as brokers of the peace.

The problem is that over 6,000 have been killed, prompting revenge operations. The Syrian opposition will not cease its demonstrating.

The Role(s) of the Armed Forces in Egypt, Yemen and Syria.

Nasser's Legacy Hard to Reverse

Back in 1952, the Free Officers were just a small slice of political life in Egypt. They were surrounded by leftists, Islamists, Wafd party activists, businessmen big and small, and a monarchy backed by its creditors, Britain and France, with its armed forces and intelligence apparats. Nasser, Sadat, Amr, et al, should not have survived. Only because the Free Officers cultivated ties with officers in the army was Nasser able to do what he did.

Most analysts looking at Egypt see a terrible legacy: the Free Officers chased out a thriving international community in Cairo and Alexandria, making life as dull as it was unjust. Socialism took hold even as the Communists were liquidated, which meant high taxes. But most crucially, the armed forces were continually favored. The army came to run things. So today Egypt is back where it was in the early 1960s, where power has devolved upon the army, specifically the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces (SCAF) led by Hussein Tantawi, the 'Sphinx.'

Over recent weeks there has been a number of demonstrations against army rule, to which the army responded with violence. These recent demonstrations have opened wounds. Behind each demonstrator are other activists, some of whom are applying pressure on the security services.

Nasser's legacy spread from Egypt to Yemen, Syria, Libya, the Sudan, and Algeria. In each case, the security state still holds power and is not giving any up.

Military forces are generally wasting, unproductive assets. But Nasser built on earlier traditions, going back to Muhammad Ali, even to the Mameluke period, by which the armed forces during peacetime, develop industries, courts, and schools.

Transfer of power to a civilian, democratic government may be in the cards, but only through a step-by-step process. A new constitution has to be drawn up and promulgated. A president has to be elected. In the next weeks, parliamentary elections (for the lower house) will be concluded.

In Yemen, all sides are dead-locked, waiting for Ali Abdullah Saleh to leave the country. He said he would do so two weeks back, but once again he has reneged on an agreement. Saleh wants all his people to have some protection short of emigration. The opposition wants all the regime's privileged charged with crimes. They want to take control of the armed forces and the security forces. This wish-list is too much, too fast. A step-by-step process will soon commence, we hope.

In Syria, the officers are also on top. The Syrian regime consists of more than a million people, most security officers. Mahir Al Asad, Bashar's brother, is just one of some one hundred and fifty officers in the various services who are related to Bashar, or share his religion, and who do his bidding.

The Arab League has just finished two weeks of on-the-ground investigations. Led by Lt. Gen. Al Dabi from the Sudan, the League appeared to be co-opted by fascist killers. “We are not here to broker peace but to find out what is happening.”

In the Gulf, tensions are high as Iran warns the US not to deploy its carrier battle group into the Gulf. Meanwhile, the group; rescues 7 Iranian fishermen who had been held captive for two months by 15 Somali pirates.

Iraq experiences a surge in terror, with bombs killing some 80 people, mostly Shi'a. Now al Qaida is leading the Sunnis in a violent response. How else can they deal with the Shi'a government of Nur Al Maleki? He thought it was just fine to join with the dim mullah Sadr, excluding Sunnis (and Christians) from effective power. The government cannot even generate big money from its big oil deposits.

The author is the moderator/instructor for the online discussion group; 'Islamic Civilization,' hosted by the graduate alumni association, Harvard University.

The Arab League Visits Syria

Syria -

Demonstrations break out all over Syria after Friday prayers, today, 30 Dec.

Violence dropped for one day as the monitors from the Arab League finally deploy. But the next day the Syrian regime continued with its murderous tactics, deploying armor against neighborhoods in Homs, Hama, Dera'a, Idlib and against a huge demonstration, estimated at 250,000, in Damascus. Some 40 were killed in these cities on the 28^th of Dec.. On the 30^th, another 40 were killed as the army opened fire on crowds leaving Friday prayers.

The League needs a little time to gather facts. We expect their first report in early January. So far, the League seems to be allied with the regime of Bashar al Asad, traveling inside army communications. The head of the League monitors is Lt. Gen. Mustafa ad Dabi. He's from the Sudan where he was active in the suppression of the rebels in Darfur.

If the League equivocates, sides with the regime and its murderous thugs, it will be seen through, open for all to see. At the same time, we do expect the League to voice support for all factions (including pro-regime civilians).

Receiving reports from Homs, we wonder how the League can even get into neighborhoods like Bab al Amr, so great is the destruction. Life in Homs has become very basic: a search for water, a little food, heat. People have endured some nine months of cruel suppression. Almost everyone has lost a friend or family member.

Police and intel (mukhabarat) units cannot move freely into radicalized neighborhoods, without armor and artillery of the Syrian army. That military is over-stretched: intervention is largely temporary: the armor and infantry visit and revisit certain villages and neighborhoods. Many villages and neighborhoods never see them at all. They do raid city blocks and villages, usually after specific fighters and activists, but end up arresting innocent men in a dragnet.

Over the past nine months, the protests have evolved into a national movement. Today, some 250 demonstrations took place, in virtually all towns and cities. The protesters are aiming to occupy main traffic circles, monuments and parks.

The presence of the Arab League monitors has induced larger demonstrations. The huge one today in Damascus may have topped a quarter of a million. The monitors are being told by the regime that their presence is triggering unrest, just as journalists do. 'Playing to the camera.'

But it is entirely proper that the presence of monitors leads to more and bigger demonstrations. The Syrian opposition is so low, so poor, so hard-pressed, that any attention from outside, is seen as help. The Arab League will likely not be able to give much help. To continue the task, the League will require several hundred monitors.

But can it broker a deal with Asad? A ceasefire? Release of prisoners?

Some 140 have been killed during the 50 hours since the AL monitors arrived. Yesterday a video showed orange-vested AL monitors running for their lives with protesters, as Syrian shabeeba thugs fired into the crowd. The regime does not seem to be in control of its own forces. Genocide is chaos.

Egypt -

On the 29^th of Dec., the Egyptian secret policed launched raids against several pro-democracy groups, NGOs, two of which were official American – the Democrat and Republican institutes of democracy). On the 30^th the Egyptian government finally censured the police, telling the NGOs (and the US ambassador) that they need not worry about such raids in the future. All materials taken by the security police were to be returned. But then, on New Year's Day, the Egyptian government reversed itself, promises disciplinary action against NGOs seeking to influence Egypt's people.

Elections are running through their last phase. Soon, attention will be focused on drafting a constitution. We'll see that in the spring of 2012. In the summer there will be elections for prime minister.

Valid candidates include Muhammad al Baradei and Amr Musa – the former head of the Arab League. But much can happen till then.

Small groups of demonstrators have been occupying Tahrir Square for nearly a month. They want to disband the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces, render the army to civilian control. Naturally, they drew the army's wrath. Some 70 have been killed in Tahrir Square since Dec. 8.

The parliamentary elections show the Islamists winning some 50%. That includes the Muslim Brotherhood, the Salafis and various Sufi groups. The army is hoping the MB will discipline those Salafis bent on action. The problem is that the MB cannot discipline itself, that is, it cannot stop small cells from going virile. The problem is that the MB's charter and its literature, sees everything Western as against Islam. This stance was a cheap shot that successfully usurped the genuine Islamic reform tradition, starting with Jalal ad-Din al Afghani, and going through Mohammed Abdou. To them, the obstacle was the clergy's refusal to educate itself and accept Western implements and ideas.

The West has no choice but to deal with Muslim political parties. Here we see the tragic weakness, a kind of willful ignorance, that basically phases out 'the other, the enemy.' Because so few Americans know the Qur'an and the original texts of Islamic law, there is not much hope for understanding, intelligent dialogue.

The Islamists do not help themselves by saying stupid things like “Democracy is incompatible with Islam.” Our readers know how untrue that is. Traditionally, Arab Bedouin elected their sheikhs. The first four rashidun caliphs were elected (by the ulema, most likely on Muhammad's order). It is not unusual to see meetings end with a show of hands.

Yemen -

Unrest simmers in Sana'a and elsewhere. Ali Saleh has yet to depart, as he said he would. His destination: the USA. But just for a few days. That's what he said on the 27^th of Dec. He said he would return to Yemen and “join the opposition.” Meanwhile, the opposition wants to get him before he escapes, to try him for the many crimes of his forces.

Those forces are still controlled by Saleh's son Ahmad, and his nephew. On the other side are dissident soldiers under Gen. Mohsin. The elite is fissiparous, the army split. Power remains with the tribes.

Meanwhile, the economy has contracted to street level: little water, food, fuel, medicine, ammo. The international community by now should have arranged for supply ships unloading at al Hudaydah on the Red Sea.

Israel -

Israel is a Muslim country, Arab, so we watch her politics: the great backlash against ultra-orthodox Jews who split on and harass women. In Brooklyn, NY, a transportation country owned by orthodox segregates men and women in different buses and vans, or puts women in the back of buses and vans, thereby violating US law. The Americans are more friendly with the religious fundamentalists than is the Israeli populace. The USA is of course a player (not an arbiter) in the Middle East.

Palestine -

Little information is leaking about the proposed merger of Hamas and the Palestinian Authority. This has been tried on at least four occasions. In every case, the clergy in Hamas overreached themselves, demanding positions for which they are not qualified.

Iraq -

The last US soldier left and 12 hours later there were a string of 13 bombs directed at government (Shi'a) targets, including pilgrims. Deep fissures open up between Sunni and Shi'a. Iran is readying itself to step in, 'clandestinely'. Already there is a low-intensity war underway.

President Nur al Maliki is at fault for falling under the influence of the dim Sadr entity, an obvious Iranian stooge. He would not have won if he had  chosen otherwise. Maliki is going after the Sunni Vice President Hashemi, who sought sanctuary with the Kurds in the north. Hashemi is accused of links with Sunni death squads. Those squads bear the hallmarks of al Qaida, so I doubt Hashemi is connected.

Iran -

Arabs live in Iran, in Khuzistan. Western Europe and North America are pushing through a blockade of Iran, preventing its sale of oil and gas. The Iranians vow to close the Straits. The US replies that this will mean war. There is a 10% chance that Iran will dump mines into the Strait. The US has special helicopters that can explode these mines from the air. But if Irani revolutionary guards deploy in small boats with shoulder-fired missiles, those helicopters cannot operate.

Iran possesses some eight frigate/destroyers and four small modern diesel submarines. It is not clear that US ships and installations can shoot down Irani cruise missiles. Iran has test-fired two of these just in the past 40 hours.

Any such tussle will give the Israelis the chance to conduct a bombing campaign against nuclear facilities in Natanz, Qom and elsewhere.

Iran may opt for conflict, to heal the rifts tearing apart the government. The world price for oil will likely double, impoverishing Iran, but the damage would redound onto the Americans. Or so they think.

Saudi Arabia -

The day after the Iranians said they would stop traffic in the Straits of Hormuz, the White House announced the $82 billion sale of F-16Ds with upgrades for 70 other F-16s, to the Kingdom. The Gulf Cooperation Council announced that they can make up for lost oil due to Irani aggression. The world financial and commodity markets were lulled back to sleep.

The author is, amongst other things, the moderator/instructor for the online discussion group 'Islamic Civilization' hosted by the Graduate Alumni Association, Harvard University.

AN INTENSIFICATION OF THE VIOLENCE

AN INTENSIFICATION OF THE VIOLENCE

The winter solstice, like September's equinox, features an acceleration of events, each fraught with implications for the future. Will the protesters succeed in bringing down the army? Syria, Egypt and Iraq are in extremis, with people slowly starving. But Yemen, peace has finally arrived.

Syria -

An unfortunate increase in violence has troubled Syrians of all stripes. The regime is convinced it is dealing with 'terrorists' and now, al Qaidah. Explosions rock Damascus: some forty regime personnel were killed when suicide bombers penetrated a government secret police 'intelligence' HQ.

Since the attack was concurrent with the arrival of the first Arab League monitors, many believed the Syrian regime staged the attack. But would the regime kill 40 of its own intelligence staff?

Syrian intelligence in Lebanon claim to have tracked the movement of arms and Al Qaidah personnel from Lebanon into Syria. Readers of this blog are familiar with this point of vulnerability – Lebanon. We have often wondered how many weapons and ammo and Sunni MB agents have infiltrated Syria from Lebanon.

In any case, some 28 demonstrators were shot dead on the 22^nd . There were some 200 demonstrations in Syria on the 24rd . Earlier, on the 20^th, some 80 were killed during a regime assault on the town of Idlib. In short, an increase in violence.

It is impossible to know for sure, but it seems the attack was not by al Qaida or the Muslim Brotherhood, but by dissident soldiers in conjunction with civilians bent of revenge for the murder of their loved ones. That's our bet. We could be wrong, but I doubt the operatives coming into Syria, could stage a sophisticated attack on a well-defended police/air force HQ, with two days of planning.

The US State Department followed European states in declaring that Bashar al Asad and his henchmen, have lost all legitimacy. Syrian regime officials cannot travel or access money stashed overseas. Switzerland, for example, has frozen some $55 million in accounts held by Al Asad (Dec.22).

The Arab League has matured to the point that it can move against Arab rulers bent of genocide. We are most pleasantly surprised. Now League officials are deploying throughout Syria. Their presence amongst the civilians demonstrating, will prevent the police from firing blindly into the crowd. If Arab League mediators are killed by regime forces, the League will isolate the regime even more.

Will the regime run out of money to pay its agents? The regime will use force to keep many police, intel and army personnl working. But how long can this go on? Many regions are already destitute: the economy is collapsing. We believe the Syrian regime will bow to Arab League injunctions, hoping to evade sanctions. But too much blood has been shed. The UN said today that some 5,000 have died, shot by security personnel. Obviously, people are not going down: some 700 of those killed were members of the army or police.

The Syrian regime's talk against terrorism is not credible. Syria sent thousands of Islamist militants across the border into Iraq, to kill coalition forces. That's why the West wants him out.

Egypt -

Tahrir Square has been occupied for nearly three weeks. Some 70 were killed outright by the army. On the 21^st, women held a demonstration in the Square, protesting army violence. The army did not touch them, but then again, the women did not march on government offices.

The protest is about the assumption of power by the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces, led by Marshall Hussein Tantawi 'the Sphinx.' This raises the complicated issue of the army's role. Jokingly, Egyptians say 'the army has deployed to the coasts' referring to the many hotels and villas dedicated just to army officers. Over the past 20 years, some effort has been made to sell army businesses and industries to the private sector.

Elections have brought the Islamists into power, though they played little role in the revolution of the 28^th of January. How will they compromise with secular democrats? With the technocrats?

Yemen -

On the 24th of Dec. violence breaks out when demonstrators marched on the presidential palace in Sana'a. They were met with elite Revolutionary Guards behind barricades. Tear gas and rubber bullets apparently did not stop the crowd of some 12,000., for the soldeirs fired into the crowd, killing at least nine. Note: many of the marchers had walked for 4 days from Ta'iz, where some weeks ago, the Guard killed some 25.

This raises the question of discipline. The uncompromising attitudes of the opposition were useful last year, but unnecessary when Saleh agreed to step down. That was back in late February 2011.

M ore recently, on November 23, president Ali Abdullah Saleh formally resigned, transferring power to his deputy, Abdu Rabbo Mansur Hadi. Hadi is trying to lead a transitional government but of course lacks credibility amongst the opposition. This too is too harsh. Why cannot Yemenis talk it out?

The opposition's Prime Minister designate is Muhammad Salem Basundwa, a former minister, but chiefly a newspaper man. He's from Aden and was active in the way of freedom, since the British ruled. The British imprisoned him. So he has the revolutionary credentials required.

In some places in Sana'a, it looks like  peace has broken out, with citizens and police removing the many barricades in Sana'a's streets. But...after eleven months of struggle, the revolution in Yemen is not over. Peace depends in part on the Al Ahmer family, tribal leaders, who face the wrath of Saleh loyalists for nearly killing the president last summer. The opposition too, is still divided: "You can cut us in many ways: secular/sectarian, socialists/capitalists, educated/uneducated, Sunni/Shi'a, tribe by tribe, old and young. It is this last which is most important. For the youth are organized, if not by the mullahs and imams, then by electronic culture. The youth, the shebab, may not make policies and sign agreements, but, with their cell phones and social media, they are the ones who move the people, who tactically organize and direct the demonstrations. They are linked nationally.

The demonstrators feel that Saleh's resignation will not bring down the corrupt regime. Economic realities dictate another, more efficient and less corrupt government. For example, Sana'a only gets an hour of electricity a day. How could that be? Why is not the infrastructure being used? What happened to the over $13 billion in aid Yemen received since 2000?

We expect a huge demonstration on Christmas Day. In fact, there will be protests in some 13 provinces. Just last summer, we saw the tribes emerge as de facto rulers of their regions. But now we see all the provinces unite to bash a government already making steps to democracy.

Iraq -

We include Iraq though it has not had an 'Arab Spring.' Instead, the Americans pulled out this week. Is that freedom? With the withdrawal of the Americans, the way is wide open for the terrorists to crawl out of their holes. Hence the 16 bombs that went off on the Dec. 22^nd, 2011. Since the targets were Shi'a, we can only assume that Al Qaida is back in business.

The situation is slowly degenerating. Many vital issues cannot be settle, and policies implemented. The oil industry is languishing because the Kurds, the Shi'a and the Sunnis cannot agree on who owns what or how Iraq's huge resources are to be managed and apportioned. Other sectors, like agriculture and industry, also suffer, partly due to the lack of electrical power.

We've received the first reports that Iran is moving over to a more direct attempt to control Iraq.

The author is, amongst other things, the moderator/instructor for the online discussion group on Islamic civilization, hosted by the Graduate Alumni Association, Harvard University

New Unrest in Egypt and Syria

Egypt - The second phase of parliamentary elections give 30% of votes to the Muslim Brotherhood, and 30% for Salafi candidates. We are surprised that the figures are so low. These elections are taking place in Suez, Ismailiyya, and in delta and Nile towns, areas supposedly more conservative than Cairo and Alexandria. 

Demonstration in Tahrir Square became violent as army units block access to government buildings. Young men are demonstrating against the usurpation of power and privilege by former-regime officers and officials. Some 20 have been killed from the 5th to 19th of Dec. 2011. Egyptian officers displayed their opinion of the Al Jazirah media channels by throwing its equipment out high floors overlooking the Square.

Egypt is a religious nation; naturally they see Islam as the most important part of their culture. The poor voted for the Salafists. Since they never received any benefits, they opt for the Islamists in their neighborhood. Salafis in Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the UAE have flooded Egypt with money, some 500 million, and this has permitted the Salafis and MB to become professional organizations, paying small pensions to the destitute.(If you've been poor, you know the necessity of a little bit of money.)

 Syria - On Dec. 19 we hear that the Syrian government has accepted the UN and Arab League's peace plan. We hear that Arab League mediators are now entering Syria. The idea is now to work for a ceasefire: the army and police cease and desist, while the opposition must refrain from violent demonstrations. 

Twenty seven were killed on the 16th of Dec. Syrian army. Needless to say, police can no longer go where they want: dissident soldiers are trying to protect the crowds. The recent fighting has been most intense in Dara'a and in Hama: these are people seeking revenge for losses of family and friends.

The Arab League is constantly trying to find workable solutions. Just today, Dec. 19^th, we hear that the Al Asad regime has accepted League mediators. The UN threatens to refer Syria may to the International Criminal Control. On the 15th, Iraqi peace negotiators arrived in Damascus. On the 17th of Dec., they meet with the opposition. Iraq may have a special role, due to its Shi'i leadership. But we expect it will side with the Al Asad regime, just as Iran does, and for the same reason (sectarian ideololgy, all three are ruled by Shi'a).
 
Iraq - The US ends its decade-long occupation on December 15, 2011. The majority of Iraqis do not view the American invasion and occupation in a positive way. True, Saddam was killing an average 30 to 50 thousand Iraqis each year; but the US had to leave because Iraq's Shi'i government refused to grant US personnel freedom from prosecution by Iraqi courts.  

The Iraqi government has its own tussle with the Islamic Republic: bombs have killed over a hundred Shi'a pilgrims in the past ten days. An Iranian cleric is put in office in Najaf. Mullah Sadr's Irani-trained hit squads are now targeting US foreign service personnel, and contractors. 

More valuable to the US than bases, is the friendship and cooperation between American and Iraqi governments, providing: the opening of oil wells, firepower (F-16s) and in intelligence. The government of Nur al Maliki is in bed with the Sadr entity. Sadr owes everything to the American liberation of Iraq, yet is a dim anti-American ideologue, a puppet being played by Irani clerics. 

There are some wild, lawless areas, and gangs operating out of revenge. Kirkuk is shared by Kurds, Sunni Arabs, Turcomen, and some Christians. The suburb of Doura, south of Baghdad, has not healed. Nor have Falluja and parts of Mosul. Najaf, Karballa, and Sadr City in Baghdad are the Shi'a areas, also subject to suicide bombers. 

Yemen - After ten months of demonstrations, and shoot-outs between loyal and dissident army units, peace seems to have descended on Sana'a, al Hudayda, Aden. Taiz is also quiet, though we think the army will continue to battle Islamists, including al Qaida.

Yemen has been a humanitarian disaster zone even before the Arab Spring. Shortages of food, water, fuel, medicine, and jobs have rendered life difficult. Basically, the country is now ruled by the tribes. These tribesmen will play with Islamist militants, but will collapse them, turn them in, when they get a better offer. The assassination of Anwar Awlaki and other Al Qaida leaders was made possible because the tribes received big payments beneath the table. Meanwhile, in Sana'a another kind of stand-off is looming. Saleh has resigned the presidency but keeps his son and other relatives and friends in various positions and in businesses. How the Saleh dynasty will unravel itself, pick up and go, has yet to be seen.