ARAB REVOLUTIONS 2011-2013                                                                   November 25, 2012

Hypocrisy in Bright Sunlight

Egypt –

President Morsi goes for it, grasping for absolute power, on Thanksgiving Day, November 22, 2012. The secular people of Cairo and Alexandria rally. On the 26^th, members of the Supreme Judicial Counsel will meet with Morsi. Meanwhile, riots break out and MB buildings are burned in Alexandria. Nobel prize-winning Muhammad al Baradai tried to mediate between secular and sectarian, finally breaking with the Muslim fundamentalists, blaming Morsi. Of course Morsi and his henchmen must, for their own psychological ‘balance,’ regard Islam and themselves as superior to modern ways, modern knowledge, and all other religions.

The Muslim Brothers (Ikhwan) and the Salafiyya would never have marshaled so much support if Saudi Arabia (and the UAE and Qatar) did not plough several billions of $ into Egypt over the past two years. It really is remarkable to trace global presence of Saudi-funded mosques and mullahs. The Wahhabis are intolerant and murderous, destroying Muslim shrines and tombs. They are concerned about outer things, not inner virtues:  the beard, the robe, the literal meaning of the Qur’an and ahadith, praying in each other’s presence, and of course, the lucrative pilgrimage to Mecca.

In Egypt the Muslim Brotherhood and Salafis were built up by Saudi theologians, legal experts and holy warriors, so they won the presidency and parliament. With another $ billion pouring in, Morsi took the chance that he could simply grab absolute power, dominating parliament and the constitutional committee. All this is terrifying to Israel and other Arab states. Westerners, Russians, Chinese, Indians are aghast, appalled.

I am convinced these problems with violent political ‘Islamists’ will only be solved when religious falsehood is exposed for what it is. A ‘way to God’ goes off the rails when it magnifies the human ego, or reinforces the group-self. All true prophets taught a kind of dying to self which cannot happen if ego dominates. Expressed more scientifically, the personality grips the essence and covers it so thoroughly that most humans do not get to experience essence after early childhood.

Since there is no constitution, actions against Morsi are without legal basis. Most have lost trust in the Brothers. They say one thing, then do the opposite.

Syria –

The Muslim Brothers as well as Shi’a warriors from Hizbullah in Lebanon have been building up their forces, again using Saudi and Emirate and Qatari money.  As in Libya, the more effective military units seem to be the Islamists. As I write, Syrian free rebels are claiming to have captured an airfield on the edge of Damascus. The Syrian regime is now fighting ‘everywhere,’ and is losing the ability to deploy fighter bombers and attack helicopters, because the airfields have been overrun.

Syrian jails are jammed packed with young protesters. Freedom fighters are usually shot on the spot. Over the past 20 months, some 40,000 Syrians have gone missing. The regime is likely holding some 15,000. All this drives the uprising. Many ordinary hum drum Syrians have become heroic warriors simply because the regime is so invidiously venal.

The West (and East Asia) is not arming the resistance. No guns and ammo. Instead, the fighting free Syrian forces receive decent radios, med supplies, and perhaps real-time intel. The Sunni Gulf states are providing the weapons and ammo.

Yemen –

The government won back control over towns in the south, but Al Qaida of the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) has been roaming around ambushing soldiers and assassinating officials, officers and suspected spies. Back last August, the Americans killed Anwari out in Yemen’s east, the Hadramaut using Saudi intel operatives and a drone.

The US has lost favor as the Yemenis forget that any state which provides a base for terrorists hitting targets outside the country, loses absolute sovereignty. The Pakistanis do not know that either.

Many Yemenis blame the USA more than Al Qaida. The government of course continues to accept American money and, yes, orders. AQAP is trying to kill many innocent Americans and Jews and Shi’a.

All the other regional states are undergoing slow, painful change. Iraq has split up between Shia, Sunni and Kurdistan. President Nur al Maliki failed in his most important task – to keep Iraq together as a multi-ethnic democratic nation. Iran of course is meddling in many ways, not least through the entity known as Muqtada as-Sadr. Iranian operatives can easily pass through Iraq to Syria and Lebanon.

Israel/Palestine –

Over November 2012 there was a rapid build-up of tensions. Radical Palestinian jihadists fired off rockets at Israel. Of course they were all inaccurate.  Iranian weapons found their way to Gaza, when Egypt opened up a few border crossings (tunnels). Some 12,000 missiles were fired at Israel, killing 6. No country would let such attacks continue, so Israel responded, killing some 160 and destroying more rockets and ammo caches. HAMAS leaders were targeted and some killed.

Israel had little problem finding them, watching them, from hour to hour, and attacking them from the air. Several thousand people in Gaza are taking money from the Israelis, many not even aware of it. But the Arab people are generally not into perpetual jihad. Muhammad never countenanced such a thing.

Israel is eating its twin – Arab Palestine. The Jews, led by American genocidal ‘conquerors,’  are slowly annexing the West Bank. They did pull out of Gaza, putting its 1.7 million under embargo and many restrictions, while reinforcing their hold over the West Bank.

Bibi the Whiner does not worry that Americans might object to his party’s abject slow-motion genocide, its annexation of Arab Palestine. He has the Americans under his control. Incredibly, the once-great Republican party sponsors ‘christian’ Zionists who egg on the Israelis and  support the deracination of the Arabs in their own lands, some of whom are, of curse, Christians. It’s perverse.

Given such perversity, such hypocrisy, it is not surprising that US government influence in the Middle East and Central Asia is now measured in negatives.  Thanks to the jihadi terrorists of 9/11, most American people do not like Muslims. I wonder what God thinks about the children of Abraham making war on each other.

            by JPM

Arab Revolutions   2011-12

Posting  Sept. 29 2012

Behind the Religions

The film “The Innocence of Muslims” was produced for the purposes of defaming the prophet  Muhammad. It is hate speech and has to be classified that way because there was, is, no other motive or objective, except to hurt Muslims.  The film shows no art or technique in its making. 

Nonetheless the Arab street erupted in protests. US embassies were targeted in the mistaken belief that the American government was somehow implicated in the making of that atrocious film. The American ambassador to Libya was murdered. Some twenty Arabs were shot by their own police and army, and the scene has not quieted down, even after a week of protests.

Those protests are likely organized by salafis and other Islamists.  Maybe even an Al Qaida affiliate was involved, i.e. Libya’s Ansar ash Shari’a. There were daily protests on the film issue, from Morocco to Pakistan.  US embassies in Sana’a, Khartoum and Cairo were all attacked and damaged. Even a week later, some embassies are still under siege.

The United States is able to enforce instances of hate speech. The maker of the film was arrested Sept. 27, for violating parole and hiding assets.  He is a criminal whose name need not be mentioned. Nor should we mention the writer of the film score.  In each case, their ethnicities would prompt further racial and sectarian violence.

Since I am an American I should speak more about why the US government is failing to win widespread support in Muslim countries.  Ignorance of Islam has been willful. Early, in middle school, American students do learn about Islam, the religion.  Muslims are said to be children of Abraham, strict monotheists.  Little is said about it, and little said about Judaism and Christianity, in America’s public schools, as the US government has no religious affiliation. It is secular, making it possible for temples of all kinds to flourish.

Just about all Americans want only peace and prosperity for the peoples of the Middle East. The exceptions are militant Christian and Jews, itching to link up in a final ‘cleansing’ of the Holy Land.

The unfortunate betrayal of America’s secular values acts like a self-fulfilling prophecy, drawing many millions of ‘modern’ militant worshippers into the weird dream-like identification with the Middle East, stemming  from books written 2,500 years ago, and from the colored illustrations of the Bible Land which they viewed  repeatedly while very young.  In the minds of many, the ancient religion is backed up with pictures of camels and wise men wearing robes, the wars of the Middle Ages are not over.

This is a pathogenic vision, shared by minorities of mock-christians, mock-muslims and mock-jews. Briefly, we used hypnosis to return to the ‘Sunday school’ levels of the American psyche, and found a set of ‘holy land’ images, floating rather freely in the psyche of the typical subject. Only because of this mass delusion can the genocidal minority, led by clerics, manipulate and sway and involve, the majority.

 The really weird thing is that these militant fanatics do not even know their own scriptures. Here is a verse they might study. “If you use my name to commit evil, I will tear you limb from limb.” (Ex.:20:7).

Originally, the prophets sought to teach self-transformation. Each was a personal search, an individual search for God or for Higher Mind.  That means doubting everything that goes through one’s mind: one’s thoughts, one negative feelings,  and the discomforts of the body (sensation).  It’s the same for religion as it is for science – don’t trust any thought or image in the head, and see through an imagined persona.

So any reinforcing of egos using group religion has gone off the tracks. Groups often reinforce egos. The outer, later religion, becomes just rituals done before others.  The prophets say “Try this, apply this insight to your own psyche and soul.”  The religion says: “Do this at the right time. If not, you are not worthy and should be shunned.  A religious group becomes dangerous – and false – when it becomes exclusive.  The cleric’s ego spawns special ideas amongst his flock. “Only we are the righteous believers.”

The personality must be seen through, if it is to release its grasp on the essence. Essence cannot talk, and the persona knows ‘everything.’  Someone close top God does not have a self-confident or symbol-spinning ego.

The prophets were all modest men. Religions so inflate them as to ruin their monotheism. People like Moses, Christ, Muhammad did not want people to worship them. They wanted individuals to gain the same holiness that they enjoyed. In pursuit of those powers, the individual is free to use any technique which helps.  “There is no compulsion in Islam” said Muhammad. But that was long ago.

Of course, the tragedy engulfs many. Cascades of misplaced hatred enervate the hard psyches of street toughs. Ever since the Iranian Revolution was usurped (1979) by Ayatollah Beheshti et al., the local clergy sought allegiances with the neighborhood gangs. Each gave what the other needed.  So we have aggressive operable teams of terrorists creating mayhem in their own lands and outside their own lands.

In the USA, the Republican Party has sought to create a new, effective alliance with the state of Israel. Their constituents in the South believe that end of the world is nigh, that it occur in the Middle East, after terrible warfare,  in which they intend to be amongst the chosen.  To be chosen, one has to emotionally believe in the figure of Christ. They believe the historical Jesus was, and is, the only God.

The stupidity of people should never be underestimated. One sees in history avalanches of violence, each the product of hateful speech (or unspoken bigotry). The popes declared 63 Crusades, holy wars, which took, as their harvest, millions of lives. More than Islam, corporate Christianity proved lethal, full of hatred. Latin and Orthodox clergies still hate each other.

On September 27, our offices were subject to a cyber attack. Our defenses caught the malware just before it entered our system. Examining it, we found that it came from Konya, Turkey.  It just so happens that I know Konya, or used to, having written my thesis on  ‘The Psychological Theories of Jalal al Din Rumi.’  I studied with Anne Marie Schimmel at Harvard. Why are Muslim hackers trying to bring us down? We have been explaining all the good in Islam to a world audience.

There are two studies which may have prompted the attacks.  They are found at http://middleeastspeculum.blogspot.com. One is entitled ‘Islam under the Knife.’ It explains how the original teachings of Muhammad in regard to women, to jihad, to democracy, to Jews and Christians, were changed in the generations following the prophet.

“Government must consult with the people at every step” said Muhammad. But those protesters in all those Muslim cities, are deeply antagonistic to their national elite. Since they have been fed and paid for and armed and equipped, by US money, American fortunes fall as well.

Egypt: Politics Suspended, Coup d'Etat, or What?

The government's electoral commission announced on June 22 that Muhammad Morsi (Morsy) has defeated Ahmed Shafiq in the presidential election. Morsi won 52%  of the vote.

But what about parliament? Egypt's Supreme Constitutional Court, yoked to the SCAF, dissolved the parliamentary elections in both houses of parliament, because religious candidates were too narrow in their allegiance. There is grave doubt that a Muslim parliament has the expertise and education required for bringing Egypt into the 21st Century. Many early supporters voted against the Muslim Brotherhood in these elections, because the country has not recovered, economically. But many secular educated types voted for the Brothers, out of fear of Mubarak's regime. That regime remains intact.

Curiously, Islamic law can play a role in altering the role of the big banks and financial brokerages, from lending cash and credits with interest, to joining entrepreneurs as joint investors. But the armed forces run the economy and do not care to share out revenues, funds, profits, on a local, person-to-person level.

Behind the scene lurks the Sphinx - Marshal Hasan Tantawi. He says nothing. There is nothing to say. All that effort and sacrifice for the revolution - has it been all for nothing? The future of the revolution is now better secured. Morsi can't put through any big Islamic project - the people will turn on him.

Morsi and his party can certainly help relieve poverty on the most basic level. Control of foreign affairs, security, and the more modern aspects of the economy, remains with SCAF.

There is a way for the government and the brotherhood to work together, symbiotically. But the corporate fallacy be-devils the loud, self-defining Muslims. If you ask one, Do you serve Islam? They will say yes. Ask them: Do you serve God? They will say yes. But Islam is no idol in the head, no one concept or institution, but different in form and content in every human who has heard about it.

No, humans do not serve Islam. Islam serves humans. Humans do not do God's work How could they when they cannot even help themselves? No, God helps you, helps the humans, who would destroy themselves without the help of revealed law. From high above, She sees them as so many worms, with openings at each end. But the clerical egos wax loud and harsh, condemning many of Abraham's children to hell because they are not Muslims. That is the sickness of the corporate fallacy in religion.

Muhammad was clear: "There is no coercion in religion."  As God says in the Bible, Numbers 8:20:
"If you use my name to cause evil, I will lay waste your soul with a special punishment."


Syria - Evisceration of the nation


Those who know Syria are quick to point out the fissures opening between communities and congregations. The Sunni-Shi'a atrocities get acted out again. This can only happen if modern ethics are abandoned. Behind the opposition is discontent, derived from failed expectations. Much of urban Syria, Damascus and Aleppo (Haleb), tasted prosperity, so were late in anti-regime demonstrations.

With bombs going off, Damascus has lost its illusory peace. The extended Al Asad family is fearful of vehicle bombs. But they are buttressed by Russia and Iran. So much has been shed one cannot expect peace for some 20 months, till passions cool, or leaders are replaced.

Practicing genocide against your own population is nothing new for the Russians and the Americans, so we might see them 'talk Asad down.' True, he has sacrificed his legitimacy, but the government personnel and assets p- they are passive, neutral. Officers cannot play the religion card with their troops, because so many are Sunni Muslims. The Sunni chauvinists, led by the Ikhwan (MB), have been importing into Syria, appx. 2 tons of weapons and ammunition each day, across the Lebanese, Turkish and Jordanian borders. The money needed comes from Saudi Arabia, Qatar, the UAE and from private sources in Turkey. The Syrian Ba'athi regime is getting daily transfusions from Iran, Iraq and even from Russia and China. None of these mock-democratic states want any instability, so back the Syrian regime and its weaponry.

The Syrian civil war is spreading into Lebanon and Iraq. Perhaps in Gaza as well. Last week's rocket barrage into Israeli settlements may have been a relief, a distraction from the gruesome fact that the Palestinians are Sunni Muslims while the Syrians and Iranian regimes are militant Shi'a.

Iraq: Wanton Slaughter of Shi'a Pilgrims at Karbala and Najaf, and in Baghdad.

How self-serving and banal, to follow your own ethnic and sectarian group into unnecessary conflict and war with one's Muslim brothers and sisters. Yet Nur al Maliki has brought in the dark mock mullah, Iranian controlled, the spoiled incompetent Sadr, who wants to kill Americans and Brits.
How unfortunate that neither took the opportunity to re-build Iraq. How? By disavowing tribal and sectarian 'causes' in order to elect people competent to fix the country.

The Kurds are playing a dangerous game, allying with Motaqa al Sadr. They are receiving from the Iranians oil and dirt-cheap Chinese-made consumer goods. So what if Iraq goes to hell...


Yemen - Al Ansar and Al Qaida on the Run?

High drama in southern Yemen, as government special forces backed by armor re-took Zinjibil and surrounding villages, killing some 70 insurgents. But the grisly Ansar 'Helpers' set off a suicide bomb, killing the Yemen army commander. Meanwhile, in Sana'a women civil rights activists insist that focus on al Qaida is all wrong. 'Let al Qaida be!" is their implication. Restoring Yemen's shattered economy is top- priority, to them. We, too, have been calling for emergency fuel and food shipments, for the past 15 months.

Any nation that lets its territory be used to launch attacks against other nations, loses much of its sovreignity, according to international law, as well as to the law of the jungle. The Pakistanis deny this, and most Yemenis also. That's why the national military command must remain integral. That is why the Saudisk, the Omanis and the Americans are conducting operations in the region. Yemen consists of some 15 regions, each with its own culture and orientation.

Neither the Yemeni armed forces or the Americans can extricate terror-cells from the country. That depends on the tribal leaderships. And behind them, their vocal constituents. In ways they never before experienced, ordinary Yemenis in the south have had to decide which side they are on. The radical Islamists were tolerable for a while. For a while, there were dissident army units in Ta'iz. But under the new leadership, a plea has been made for national salvation.

Riots in Israel featuring Jews and Arabs together -

June 23-24 in Tel Aviv witnessed swarms of social rights demonstrators turning violent, smashing bank windows, blocking traffic, and creating general mayhem. The demonstration was, is, a protest against the huge income gap between the politically connected rich, some 20 families, and the other 99.9 per cent. One lesson: the politics of symbolic appeal has till now vexed practical solutions, but from here on in, the challenges, economic and environmental, are such that no state or political party can afford ideology. We heard Israeli military leaders (Shaul Mofas and Ehud Barak) confess that the West Bank and Gaza is such a mess, such an expensive stand-off, that unilateral withdrawal from Arab Palestine might occur.

At the same time, there has grown up an array of armed groups dedicated to Jihad. In Gaza, these are: Jaish al Ummah wa Masadah, Jund Ansar Allah, Jaish al Islam, Jamaat Ansar al Suna and the Jamaat al Tauhid wa'l Jihad fi Filistin. The bedoin in the Sinai are now calling them selves 'Al Qaida.' The Iranians used to be paymasters, but now they focus on Iraq and Syria. The Palestinian groups are Sunni, anyway. Can Hamas control these hotheads? Can the secular Palestinian authority infiltrate all groups planning violent genocidal acts to create terror?

Just as many Arabs live in Israel, so many Jews live in Palestine. But they must be citizens of that state, vote in its elections, take positions alongside Arabs. Of course this is anathema to the clerics and congregations on both sides. Will the Holy Land survive the clerics? Can the world afford this foolish 'war of the faiths?'  How do you think God feels when She looks down and sees the Children of Abraham fight amongst themselves? She sees clearly the fatal human tendency, of the ego and the ordinary conceptual mind, go to bed together, a kind of the incest. Personality so covers the Essence that most of the Earthlings live their lives oblivious to their deep roots. We all come from the same source.



The author is moderator/instructor of the online discussion group 'Islamic Civilization,' hosted by the Graduate Alumni Office, Harvard University. He can be reached at tulku7@verizon.net.

Is Syria a Civil War? Or Just Genocide?
 
When non-combatants are slain because of their religion, ethnicity or by exercising their rights of speech and assembly, we call this genocide - a killing of the people. Soldiers cannot even imagine turning their weapons on unarmed civilians. The massacre last week in Houla featured tank and artillery fire, followed by an assault by the shabiha, the 'ghosts,' on the Sunni town. These are Nusayri militia armed by the Asad regime, for defensive purposes. The press calls them Alewites, partisans of Ali, but that term is much too broad. The Nusayris trace back through the Old Man of the Mountain, the Assassins, and can be found anywhere. Modern, educated Syria does not want any of it. Time and again I hear "This is not a religious struggle." Not many Syrians support either Sunni or Shi'a dominance. Of course, to amateurs outside Syria, that seems to be what is happening - a sectarian war.

First, there are many factors at play, not just sectarian identifications. Syria is amazingly complex and varied. The population is quite mature, taking their Islam in spirit if not in letter, admitting diversity, such as protecting the Christians. Some 73% of Syrian Muslims want that guarantee. Amongst the opposition, some 83% are Sunnis, which means 17% are not. They're educated secular Shi'a, and Christians. Of course there are Sunni soldiers fighting for Asad, a majority in the army if not in the intelligence agencies. It helps to narrow down the argument, and that argument has little to do with religion, or religious rights.

But outsiders may not see it that way. Sunnis in Syria are being armed by its Sunni neighbors. The Shi'a backing Al Asad look towards the land corridor established from Teheran to Baghdad to Damascus to Hizbullah in Lebanon, thanks to the Americans and the British. Indeed, this week sees deadly firefights between Shi'a-Sunni neighbors in Tripoli, Lebanon, with some 25 killed over three days.

We do not believe Syria has fallen into a religious war or even a civil war, as we do not see fighting on broad fronts, capture of towns, outside invasions. Multiply the violence by eight (8) and then we can call it a civil war. But still not a religious one.

Our own experience in Syria has been bizarre. I know basic Qur'anic Arabic so often startled those with whom I spoke. Syria still keeps alive those old traditions, which transcend the Sunni-Shi'a split. Ba'ath socialism may ignore them, suppress them, but even in the schools, the classic Arab poets are read. Many, like Mutanabbi, were Syrian. So it still has a classical culture. Homs, for example, used to be an empire in its own right, called Emesa. Of course the regime has been wasteful. So over-reaching is the state, that reforms were obviously overdue. Bashar al Asad tried to reform for a decade, setting up independent banks and special import/export zones, and giving passports to entrepreneurs. But, as usual, revolutions occur not at the low point but when expectations rise.

Behind the maneuvers of the United Nations, the EU, USA, Russians, is the deep dark quiet convergence between Syria and all of her neighbors and allies. Turkey, Iran, Iraq, Lebanon, Jordan, Cyprus, Israel, Greece, Egypt - all are maneuvering in the dark. All that newly-discovered Islamic friendship of the recent past, now a mockery of Medina's promise, as tensions increase between al these big actors.

Smaller groups serve as cushioning or as ball bearings, propelling the crises. The Kurds, the Armenians, the Azeris, the Druze, the Ismailis, the four kinds of Christianity, the remaining Jews, the Baha'is, plus the religions of socialism and communism, Moloch and/or the 'free' market, which of course is not free.

It is doubtful that the Houla massacre will cause Asad to pause. He shares power with his brother, who is providing security in a most pro-active way. As Shi'ites, they see it as a desperate struggle against Sunni terrorists, though these are few in number. The Russians are correct in saying both sides have responsibilities, that both are to blame. But turning heavy weapons on one's own unarmed civilians, has abrogated the regime's legitimacy, making it open season on Asad's Ba'athists.

The Syrian National Council is riven by divisions, between religious and secular, Arab and Kurd, between the careful strategists seeking international recognition (and outside intervention) and the hotheads busy with sending in ammunition and keeping communications open. The departure last week of the Kurds is indicative of the splintering. It is only natural that the Kurds respond to the huge forces squeezing them, from Turkey, from Iran, from Syria and Iraq.

Azerbaijan and Armenia are close to war. Each has had nearly 20 years to stockpile weapons and ammunition. The issue is who owns Nagorno-Karabagh, a small section of greater Armenia. Outside benefactors help the Armenians retain this holy place, while Turkey and Russia support the Azeris. US interests in Azeri oil puts it in a difficult situation. For the Azeri hotheads executed genocidal projects against unarmed Armenian grandmothers, killing some 40,000, after Armenian forces occupied a full one fourth of Azeri territory. War in Syria nearby may be accelerating events.

Russia is still master of some 160 peoples, each with its own language, so does not want to see Syrian socialism overthrown, lest such rebellion occur inside Russia. Putin was correct when he said Russia has no special relation with Syria." He'll persist in blocking sanctions till the West agrees that the rebels are also to blame. If saying that will bring peace, we will. Each side needs a way out, a way of saving face, not just a way of protecting themselves.

We know what happens after a month or two of violence in a Syrian neighborhood. Civilians are killed, then the buildings are abandoned, to be occupied by snipers, then shot to pieces. About 1.3 million Syrians are internally displaced.

It may be too late to be pessimistic.



Egypt - A New Islamic Republic

The presidential elections in May produced 13 winners, none of whom got over 25% of the vote. The top five of these, are all extremists of one stripe or another. The big divide is between the Muslim Brotherhood and the SCAF 'descendents,' backed by big business and many secular older folk, led by former prime minister Ahmed Shafiq. The Ikhwan candidate, Muhammad Morsi, seems to hold the advantage, but the media has turned on him and other Islamists, prompting attacks by Muslim hotheads on state TV stations. Another party, led by Hamdan Sabahi, is 'extreme secularist' meaning that the want democracy and economic development, thereby attracting many technocrats and businessmen.

The run-off election is on June 16. Egypt has not recovered economically. All sides claim to have plans for fixing 'the system' (an Nizam) but of course this depends on technocrats up and down the line. Uneducated Muslim clerics and their followers have a role: distributing aid and assistance to those in need: the poor, the sick, the elderly and the children.

Saudi is investing nearly $2 billion into the Egyptian elections, providing all the MB cells with hard cash to purchase influence and some supplies for the people. The literature attached is banal, inane, as the Wahhabis think outer things matter, when even their own muftis, Ahmed Hanbal and ibn Taymiyya, tell them to focus on the heart, on the inside. For Islam is a personal quest, not some sports team or army that one might join. Those who say they serve Christ or Muhammad or God have a lofty view of themselves. Obviously, we need God. God doesn't need us. Our own personal guardian angels may need our efforts, but not God. We are like worms or ants, to God, or, in any case, much smaller than we think. We do not serve Islam, it serves us. There as many kinds of Islam as there are Muslims, plus all the non-Muslims who know about it.

No, it is a disappointing scene, the economic collapse, a grinding dirt poor penury afflicting urban and rural alike, decline of the money, inflation, soaring commodity prices, declining foreign investment, expatriates reluctant to come home, residual anti-foreigner and anti-Semitic sentiments, rising hostility against Copts, endless scheming by ideologues bent on power, a state apparatus (army, police, intel, big business) unable to pay for itself without American contributions.


Yemen - June's Battle of Zinjibar

Yesterday we received reports of a battle in Zinjibar, a small city on Yemen's southern coast, in Abyan province, near the port of Aden. This town fell to al Qaeda of the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) a year ago. AQAP has been chased out of the Hadramaut last autumn, as its leaders were slain by American drones. These crazed Sunni Islamists moved in Abyan over the winter, focusing their force on government troops in Ta'iz, an important provincial center in the southern mountains.

Yemenis should be grateful that the revolution ended when and how it did, permitting its army to deploy to the south. Even the two rebellions in the north, the Houthi tribe and by the Zaydi Shi'i imams, seem to subside. Maybe that's just because the economy is prostrate - no extra gas, water, food, electricity, or, for the hard pressed, ammo.

A year ago we looked at the port al Hudayda on Yemen's Red Sea coast (called the Tihama), and saw no aid ships. We need aid shipments we said then. Only a little aid has been forthcoming. The prices for food keep going up. Yemen used to export oil and food, but now can't fuel or feed itself. Let me quick to add, however, that the Yemeni farmers are masters of their terrains: they build terraces, or they'll farm in a wadi or in an alluvial fan.

M. Abdul Hadi is clearly a care-taker. The opposition really needed to focus on one leader, with a detailed policy for recovery, which includes democracy.

David Petraeus is personally directing the drone activities over Yemen, as CIA chief. Two weeks ago, some 20 militants were tracked to a house, which was hit by either a Predator drone or by US Navy pilots. The US has kept two carriers in the Arabian Sea, and maintains a base on Masirah Island, off Oman.

Israel/Palestine - Unilateral Withdrawal?

Israeli defense minister Ehud Barack gives voice to a rational sentiment, that the Israel just pull out of the West Bank, including East Jerusalem. Zealots with genocidal projects cry foul, but the IDF can always reoccupy regions of Palestine, even Gaza, if they host militants staging attacks.

Iran's alleged development of an atomic device is still a top issue. Even more pressing, the new corridor connecting the Hizbullah fighters in Lebanon, to Iran, through Syria's Baathi regime, through the Maliki-Sadr failed Iraqi government. Can Iran actually send military units into Syria and Lebanon? Clandestinely, in small numbers, as is happening.

The sanctions against Iran for upgrading uranium are preventing Iran from sending much of anything to Asad. Small rockets and ammunition for Hizbullah. Moral support. Hamas in Gaza has already re-discovered its Sunni chauvinism. Maybe Egypt will give them free ammunition and rockets. But Israel need not fear. Its civil defense program has been perfected. Patriot and Arrow batteries will knock down the bigger ballistic warheads, launched from Syria or Iran, while the Iron Dome can be deployed close to the borders.

The US Republicans usually believe the Israel they read about in their Bibles as children, is the Israel you see on the map today. The big war is against the Muslims, who many American 'christians' call the way to the Devil. Goofs like Perry, Santoram and Romney state openly that they will open operations against the Islamic Republic of Iran, and drive the Palestinians out of Palestine. This is the prerequisite for the End of Days, the final showdown.

So we see the craziness as afflicting our own leaders, clergy included. Clergy rule just behind the scenes in Morocco, Tunisia, Egypt, Israel, Gaza, Turkey, Iraq, Iran, Afghanistan, Tajikistan and Pakistan. In America, too. Canada too is still being led by a christian fundamentalist. 

Algeria -  Water Works

The third desal plant coming on line this month will give Algeria some 30% more fresh water. Did Algeria avoid an Arab Spring showdown? No, it instigated it. For seven months, continual demonstrations by POLISARIO down in Tindouf led to self-immolations and defiance of authority, which spread by radio to Libya, Tunisia and Egypt.

None of us should be so naive as to expect that Morocco's forced annexation of the Western Sahara would have no impact on the larger picture. Just because we don't hear about it, does not make it any less potent, simmering as it does for years and years. Slavery in Mauritania is another destabilizing issue. The Tuareg have been effected and affected by the Arab rebellions, most notably by Libya's civil war. That did spread through the Sahara, from Sabha down to Ghat, across a corner of Algeria, then into Niger, Mali. 

Two Tuareg groups compete to extend control over Gao and Timbuctoo, in Mali. The north has broken away. It seems more like the north has conquered down to the River Niger. Malian forces concentrate around Bamako. The Tuareg rebels fall into two groups: the democratic rebels, secular and indigenous, and the Islamists. Throw into some Qaddafi loyalists, trained soldiers, who managed to ship out much ammunition and small arms. And many Toyota trucks.

Sudan - Sudanese Forces Pull Back from Abiye

The Islamist Arab regime of Omar Bashir has ordered its soldiers out of the Abiye area, thus avoiding war with South Sudan. It is, after all, a no-brainer: Abiye lies right on the border between the two Sudans. So obviously they should share it 50-50. That would be better than destroying the oil fields and pumping stations. Daa...

Readers curious about Islam might log on to htto://middleeastspeculum.blogspot.com.
Your comments are welcome.
                       
The author is, amongst other things, the moderator/instuctor of the online discussion group 'Islamic Civilization' hosted by the Graduate Alumni Office, Harvard University.

After a year of revolution we can look back and see played out on the streets what we noted ten months ago, that the demonstrations were taken over by radical groups having no role in their generation.

Syria remains at war - over 9,000 have been killed, and the world ponders how to help the opposition. Now rumors are flying that Bashar al Asad will agree to a UN request for ceasefire.

Yemen is getting back to normal, except in the south, where Al Qaeda militants challenge government control over Aden and Ta'iz.

In Libya, bedouin tribes and Berber fight it out in Sabha, in the remote south. Some 50 were killed till a ceasefire March 30 brought back peace. Government forces arrived to enforce it.

Tunisia and Egypt feature political maneuvering in the run-up to elections.

 In Egypt, the economy has not recovered. Investors and tourists stay away because both the SCAF and the Salafis are equally dismal.

A police war is underway in the Sinai against Bedouin. The nomads are suffering in Israel as well

War continues in the south of Sudan, along the border. Civilians are targets.

Note: use this site as an archive of all major events, week by week, since January 2011. Scroll down past the below article to find our weekly postings.

At the end, we realized that genocidal projects are underway. Only if moderates accede to office do we see any end to them. 

High Noon in Arabia: The Rise of Islamic Democracies

Scholars in Islamic lands and non-Muslims outside, together debate whether or not Islam is democratic. It certainly is in spirit: there are no priests, and everyone is equal essentially. But in the letter of the law?

Our readers know the operable truths behind this debate. Bedouin tribes routinely elect their chiefs, who then represent their interests. Muhammad and his companions must have been democrats, as they won the support of diverse, fractious Medina (from year 0 to 8, 622-30 AD). The traditional view is that Muhammad left no instructions for a successor, but that is not true: he sanctioned the election of the kaliph, the lawful successor, by the community of scholars. He must have chosen this method, because the first four kaliphs – Abu Bakr, Omar, Uthman, and Ali – were all elected.

Back then, even during the prophet's lifetime, there was no 'Islamic religion' with all that that means today. The Shari'a had not even been countenanced, though Muhammad was known as a legal mediator. Even before he was a prophet, he understood perfectly the unwritten desert codes of the Hijaz, the Najd, the Syrian desert, and Southern Mesopotamia, all which derive from earlier Neolithic laws.

The rise of civilization as we know it was closely accompanied by the rise of written law. But the Jews, the Arabs, the Greeks had no notion of this earlier Neolithic period. But those living as nomads or close to nomads, certainly recognized and respected, these old desert laws.

These laws were worked out some 6000-8000 years ago, between settled communities, nomads, and traders. While most history portrays nomads as barbarians, destroying civilizations, they were actually essential to them.

Curiously, the Abrahamic religions stem from nomads (Christ wandered, hated cities, and preached to shepherds). In a key way, they were the nomad's response to the religious/civil laws of civilizations: Sumer, Babylonia, Phoenicia, Assyria, Hatti, Persia, Byzantium, Yemen. They preach equality between members (not universal freedoms).

They also preach genocide against each others. The Book of Revelations, for example, is full of genocide, as is some 8 of the 26 books comprising the Torah. Some Quranic verses, taken out of context, also appear to prescribe elimination of a group because of their religion, race, class or gender.

Since everyone is to blame, there's no need to play the blame game. And it is too late to be a pessimist: genocidal projects are well underway, including slow-motion genocide. Some radical Arab groups, Sunni and Shi'a, vow to drive the Israelis (and all Jews) into the sea, while a group of hard, mean racist Zionists expand their settlements “into all of Israel.” Iran is building a nuclear weapon, and a missile to convey it to Tel Aviv and/or Manama.

The US position in Arabia is shattered because of its acquiescence in the genocidal project of hard-line racialists - establishment of  Jewish settlements (by force) on the West Bank of Palestine. So much for the 2-state arrangement: why even maintain that idea? And so much for peace. Forget about that also.

Hypocrisy breeds hatred. The US loses influence in Egypt, in Yemen, in Iraq, and its politicians are loathe to criticize the Israelis for anything – even the pilfering of US secrets. The southern Republicans are also Zionists responsible for pushing through the Great Israel project. Some, like the venal Rick Perry and the louche Newt Gingrich – pledge to open war against the Iranians, if elected president. How dark can humans be?

Most analysts expect the Israelis to act, to bomb the bomb and missile factories in Iran. The two big ones are underground, easy found using Google Earth, just outside Natanz and (to the north) Qom.

Here, at Speculum, I presented to my elected officials and their staffs, a way to bring Iran and the US together, providing books to the Afghans. You can find that at http://www.centralasianlawreview.blogspot.com

Since Islam is compatible with modern democracy, the West should train at least one or two non-Muslim social scientists who have read deeply in fiqh and shari'a.

We cannot wait for that, so are moving into moderating Islam to fit modern world standards. Also, we will be converging on a number of offices in the USA, in a bid to seek peace. We write in Persian to the Iranians, in Turkic to all the Turks, and in Arabic to the Arabs.

Muhammad was a modest man. So were Moses and Jesus of Nazareth. Yet the leaders of Iran, Israel, Egypt and the Republicans in the USA, are not modest men. Far from it. But “he who is most humble is most arrogant” so the clerics are fair game in this turkey shoot. Many secretly aimed to win temporal power. They sanctify genocide, even against their own.

Indeed, the whole world should be critical of Muslims who put dress above conscience, and who like to pray before others (so as to win them). Some of the Shari'a is not Islamic and should be excised:  the laws of stoning-to-death, the cutting off of hands, hostility to foreigners and non-Muslims, repression of women, terror and offensive Jihad – these laws come from elsewhere, that is, they are not Islamic at all, and must need be expunged from all courts through the Muslim world and its diaspora.

Muslims react, blaming the West. But most Western states better incorporate the essential values of Muhammad and of God, the rule of law, economic opportunity, human rights, and mobilization of its women. This is why the great Islamic reformer Jalal ad Din al Afghani (19^th C) said: “I search the east and found many Muslims but no Islam. I went to the West and found no Muslims but I found Islam.”

The pressures on human populations are such that they can no afford dictators (and their dynasties) or to indulge in the politics of symbolic appeal. Also, let us seek support in the Torah, in Exodus 20:7, where God says: “Do not use my name to cause harm. If you do, I will punish you especially severely.”

Egypt -

Today (Feb.11 2012) the chairman of the American Joint Chiefs of Staffs (Gen. Martin Dempsey) met in Cairo with the leaders of the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces, led by the Sphinx, Marshall Tantawi. They have so much to discuss. The Egyptian armed forces are about to be denied the Pentagon teat, to the tune of some $3 billion/year (including all contracts).

Everyone seems to be taklking about the unholy alliance between the army and the Islamists: these two totalitarian forces want to keep control. The educated secular non-Islamists who started the revolution, have been cut out. It's hard for them to speak up, as their ideas can easily be ridiculed as 'western' by the Islamists and the face-sensitive army.

Hosni Mubarack's trial is a distraction. The new rulers (his appointees) want to blame it all on him, so they can retain their assets and their controls. He was not a Qadhafy or an al Asad or even an Ali Saleh. Mubarack  was not so bad, many Egyptians believe, compared with anarchy or the rabid nationalism of Gamal Abdul Nasser.

SCAF is using the same rationalew to kill Egyptians as Bashar al Asad uses to kill his own Syrian people: they are terrorists under the control of foreign powers.

Even as I write, there are some 500 demonstrators in Tahrir Square demanding that SCAF resign and hand over power. Most Egyptians, however, want life to get back to normal, and so descry the occupation of Cairo's most important round-about.

As we saw over the past months, the Islamists all together comprise some 76% of the parliamentary seats, a clear majority, likely to veto 'minority' positions held by secular educated Egyptian professionals. But the group to watch is the April 6^th Youth Movement. These are Egyptian students well armed with electronic devices, who can summon into the streets.

SCAF made a mistake in arresting and holding and charging, some 44 members of foreign NGOs dedicated to democratizing Egypt. This harsh move comes as a logical next step after SCAF's prosecution of some 12,000 demonstrators.

Syria -

The carnage continues, with death rates double what they were just last month. The center of opposition is in Homs, which was an independent kingdom (called Emesa) not so long ago, and for a long time. Homs had endured, with Hama, a repression of opportunities (and lives), so it is natural that the city should demonstrate, resist and now fight, as best they can.

Democrats in and out of Syria support the demonstrators. But the protesters are themselves split, between the hard line who will battle to the death, till Al Asad and his cronies leave office, to the more moderate, better educated protesters who want a negotiated settlement, leading to a new kind of government.

The Syrian Free Army will slowly grow, but they're no match for Syria's armed forces and secret police.

Russian foreign minister Lavrov visits Damascus on the 9-10^th of Feb.. After their meeting, al Asad said: “We will ceasefire and talk.” But he just orders more killing. On the 11^th, a high-ranking Syrian general is shot dead on the streets of Damascus.

It's too late to be pessimistic. All the Syrian regime needs to do, is back off, stop firing at citizens. But no army will let deserters organize against it. The regime is under pressure to root out 'the armed terrorists.'

Lebanon-

On the 11^th of Feb., 2012, fighting broke out in the streets of South Beirut, as Shi'a Islamists fight with Sunni Islamists. Hizbullah of course is funded by Alawite Syria, while the Palestinian refugees and other Sunnis, want Al Azsad down and down in such a way he does not get up again. Both have sent fighters over the border into Syrian, and many weapons and much ammo.

Palestine -

Fatah leader Abu Abbas (Abu Mazen) and Hamas leader Khalid Mashal sign documents unifying their two fiefdoms, each a vital part of any Palestinian state. Unfortunately, those who oppose peace have the guns and the justifications to kill.

Iraq -

Iraq is in a parlous state, split between Shi'a and Sunni. Even the Kurds are split. Iran is slowly taking over. Sunni fighters are also streaming in from Saudi Arabia and elsewhere. Nur al Maliki is a sop to Muhammad Sadr, the rash bumpkin and Irani stooge, who never fails to voice hate to America as a glue to hold his disparate people together.

The new American embassy opens, but will house only 8,000 Americans, not the 16,000 originally planned. But even the Green Zone has been divided by the regime into sections where foreigners have problems getting through.

By 'High Noon' we mean a moment of decision.

by JPM, Harvard University, Cambridge, Massachusetts   Feb. 14, 2012 

Assessing Arab Revolutions After One Year

As if the year were itself a new, more intense octave, violence flared up in Syria, Egypt, Libya, Sudan, Somalia and the Yemen. Iraq too, seems to be descending into chaos. One hopes for countervailing forces and factors, but every group pursues its own interests. The revolutions have been usurped by groups with narrow interests.

Syria -

Some 200 Syrians were killed on Feb.4, a casualty level of civil war. These atrocities occurred because Al Asad knows Russia, Iran and China will be in support. Sudan, Eritrea, as well.The Arab League is rife with intrigue and accusations, and is not yet able to field a delegation seeking a ceasefire.

The recent one-month long Arab League Monitoring Mission to Syria was narrowly voted to continue – but not now. It is not clear whether they have an assertive peace plan. Though the Arab League under Amr Musa (Mousa) seemed to side with the protesters, the conservative members, led by Sudan and including Morocco and Algeria, Eritrea and Bahrain, appear to set the terms of peace – surrender to the authorities.

The opposition in Syria is divided between those who want to negotiate a new government, and those who want to fight the regime to the end. And while no outside power will offer direct military assistance, Turkey, Qatar and even Saudi Arabia, are exploring ways by which they can, separate or together, clip Al Assad's wings. All those Special Operations troops want to go in. They start by arming the opposition – supplying ammo, water, food and fuel.

The regime will try to control all the roads, but these can be hit, forcing the regime to pull back its forces, to protect government installations and VIPs. So we see the Syrian situation evolving this way.

The massive assault launched by the noxious 4^th brigade, first on eastern Damascus, then in and around Homs – has killed a thousand or so. This is not fighting but the firing of large-caliper weapons intro crowded urban neighborhoods.

One would have thought that the world community might pull together around a condemnation (with sanctions) of such inhumane behavior, but Russia and China have refused any UN support for military intervention in Syria.

The whole Arab world is wondering why Russia and China are taking such obstructionist positions. They can only be what they are. We expect the situation in Syria to intensify, even to the point of civil war. Last week, some 200 innocents were killed in one day, and those figures are those of a civil war.

Meanwhile, the Hamas leadership, in exile in Damascus, decides to flee, some going to Doha, others to Amman, and others to Egypt and from Egypt, back to Gaza. In Doha,  Khalid Meshal, head of Hamas, meets with Abu Mazen (Mahmud Abbas) to a new attempt at reconciliation.

Egypt -

The anniversary two weeks ago brought hundreds onto the streets around Tahrir Square, Cairo. The big push from below is to curb the power of the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces (SCAF), led buy the Sphinx, Marshall M. Hussein Tantawi.

What enervates educated people in Cairo is that the army, police and the Islamists have worked out loose arrangement to share power and to keep it from the 'west-influenced troublemakers', i.e. the secular democrats.'

Last month M. El Baradei threw in the towel, convinced the elections for president this summer, will be rigged. El Baradei had worked out an alliance with the Muslim Brotherhood, only to have it blown up in his face when the Brothers took up the army's bid for totalitarian control. How naïve.

Yemen -

Readers of this blog have been able to chart the slow disintegration of the country called Yemen Republic. After one year of unrest, the southern province of Abyan (including the port city of Aden) and Shabwa province in the east, have fallen under al Qaida control. In the past week, some 200 Yemeni soldiers have been killed at their posts, while on patrol, and in their barracks.

This is unusual development to us, as it was apparent, a year ago, that extreme poverty and the breakdown of eco-socio-nets, meant the rise of local hotheads who can supply necessities.

Two weeks we noted that the UN was sandbagging all its offices, particularly those in the Aden area, now flooded with refugees. More unfortunately, we see the new Vice President, Mansur al Hadi, inviting Al Qaida to join the government in talking out solutions.

Al Qwaida of the Arabian Peninsula is just one of the groups claiming Islam as their own and vowing to wage war on non-Muslims. Unfortunately, most of the food aid, fuel discounts and ammo comes into the country by ship at Al Hudaidah thanks to non-Muslims. But the clerics provide some solace as the people starve.

Again, as in Egypt and Syria and Tunisia and Libya, the educated democrats have been pushed to the side. The army is in control, around Sana'a and Ta'iz (perhaps), but not in Abyan and Shabwa, or in the north, around Sa'ada.

Jordan -

King Abdullah II received Hahas leader Khalid Mashal on February 6, 2012. Hamas is fleeing Damascus – it's too hot for the Islamists – which also coincides with talks between Fatah and Hamas, over a new unity government, formed by elections.

Foreign direct investment (FDI) as fallen steeply over the past months. Whether the newly unemployed will side with the Muslim Brothers and/or the Salafis, is not yet known. Islamists now control most labor unions and professional associations.

Israel and Palestine -

Mahmud Abbas of Fatah and Khalid Mishal of Hamas met in Qatar in the latest step in their reunion. The Israeli line is that such reunion threatens peace. But not so fast. A Palestinian government, elected, would be a better position to negotiate than either party at present. Of course there are many who do not want any peace agreement - Jews and Arabs alike.