MIDDLE EAST SPECULUM REPORT Vol. 22. No. 2
March 2 2011 by John Paul Maynard
Speculum is Latin for mirror. Any English dictionary will tell you the word mirror comes from the Latin mirabilis 'something wonderful.' But if the Romans called a mirror a 'speculum,' the French and English heirs would also call it 'speculum' – if had come from the Romans. But the word 'mirror' is Arabic. It is a verbal noun (masdar) of the Sixth Form verb of the root 'ra'a' 'to see'. As such its literal meaning is: 'a process whereby me and it look at each other.'
This is apposite to our mission of actually seeing through the eyes of the Arabs, the Berbers, the Jews, the Persians, the Kurds, the Pashtuns, the various Turkic nations. Then marry that hard-won local knowledge with the actual capabilities of foreign forces and factors, and one can see outlines of the possible; the interplay, invisible, of geo-politics, with strong economic factors.
For example, we do not hear much about what is happening behind the scenes in Tunis and Cairo. New governments are being cobbled together, amidst much rivalry and much jockeying for power; for the revolutions are not complete anywhere.
Since our last posting we have seen unrest break out in Oman. In Bahrain and Yemen protesters are in occupation of symbolic turf, now traffic rotaries: Pearl roundabout in Manama, and Tahrir square in Sana'a. In both cases, the demonstrators
insist that the government resign. This is too extreme, since the governments can demand that discussions take place inside parliament. Both Salman Hamad al Khalifa and Sultan Qabus have been reforming leaders, so what exactly do the rioters have in mind? An Islamic republic? Already the people in both nations have greatly benefited from and by these rulers. Hence their legitimacy.
In Algeria, the secular Bouteflika government rescinded its emergency rule, Feb. 27, eliminating one source of aggravation. Also restored are subsidies – cheaper food. This just the beginning, and Bouteflika will need carry through with reforms, esp. housing.
Libya features a contest of epic dimensions, as unarmed civilians repeatedly defeat Qaddafi's goons, preventing them from occupying towns in Tripolitania. Tripoli's citizens are lying low. Timely intervention would restore US in the eyes of the Arabs, but US power is not that flexible, perhaps.
Not mentioned are the important outlying towns, like Sabha with its international airport, or Ghaddames, or the al Kufrah oasis, or Sirt or Adjabiyyah or many other smaller towns. One can expect that discussions proceed in all, and that Qaddafi is not popular in most places.
In Tunisia, the people forced the resignation of Prime Minister Ghannouchi, in power almost since Bouguiba resigned. The democrats realized that, by dismissing Ben Ali, they did little to move Tunisia towards democracy. How astute are these young leaders? Most realize that some technocrats and security personal, embassy staff, et al., need remain on the job, to provide continuity.
Morocco has seen demonstrations in Rabat and elsewhere, arguing that the king, Muhammed II, make independent the judiciary. Jobs, food and, of course, housing and jobs, were also factors. Muhammed II is a reformer, so few ask that he leave.
Uprisings and demonstrations outside the Arab world seem to have their own trajectories. The long-time ruler of Kazakhstan, Nursultan Nazarbayev, has been persuaded to step down. Iran's hardliners arrested Musavi and other dissident leaders. (Where is Ruhollah Khomeini when we need him?) Iraq has seen violent protests, people demanding food and housing and jobs.
Mikha'il Gorbachev, turning 80 today, gave a stiff interview wherein he condemned Putin and Medvedev for creating a one-party undemocratic state.
Speculum will working on prescriptions, so readers can expect not just timely tactical analysis, but long-term prescriptions. What should replace the crude structural adjustments of the IMF and World Bank? Why must the poorest pay for the mistakes (and greed) of the rich? Is there a third way between socialism and capitalism? What kind of capitalism are we talking about? Stay tuned.
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