Middle East Speculum Report - Arab Revolutions 2011
You can access accurate studies re Islam, the genuine Muslim reform tradition, and the changing political economies at http://middleeastspeculum.blogspot.com Those interested in the ways electricity is changing politics, would be interested in reading the list of research topics undertaken by Speculum, at http://thehumanpreservationproject.blogspot.com.
Also listed are 'primed blind-spots.' The Dark Spaces, assumptions, images in the head, the general disorientation of typical Americans. Plus 'affluenza' - the diseases of affluence. Now get ready for Arabia.
Algeria -
We begin with Algeria for several reasons. It was after prayers on Friday Feb. 11th, that the crowds grew and became so brave and determined, that they defied the government's order to disband and obey curfew. The courage of just a few score citizens was enough to tip the whole Arab political equation, resetting its mainspring. The Tunisians adapted, as did the Egyptians. Algeria has a long, long history of street demonstrations going back into the French period; but are also wary and reluctant to trigger violence, because they have seen how violence spirals out of control, how it triggers more violence. And this they don't want. Nor do the protesters demand a new government; just more freedoms. Just a few hundred showed up in Algiers today. Things are not so hot, perhaps, because Algerian society possesses genuine freedom of speech.
Furthermore, this police state has made concessions. Although Bouteflika was an army creation, he does not represent them today. The FLN does. He re-installed food subsidies, and just recently, on March rescinding the emergency powers. The protesters will still be attacked by police, as demonstrations remain illegal.
Many in the Arab world are demonstrating of the first time, but Algerians have a long history of protesting. Is non-violent political change possible? The Algerians may again lead the way by actually addressing the critical economic issues: lack of jobs, the high costs of food, the drastic shortage in adequate affordable housing, for individuals and families. But this is exactly what Speculum prescribed back in 1976, as a student at Harvard, working under A.J. Meyer.
Demonstrations do not demand new government, but more freedoms. Just a few hundred showed up in Algiers, because Algeria has genuine freedom of speech. This police state has made concessions, rescinding the emergency powers. The protesters are attacked by police. People are tired of violence. The civil war, 1991-2002, featured naked violence and arbitrary killings of innocents on a large scale.
TOWARDS ACCURATE PRESCRIPTIONS: Neither left or right, east or west, has the prescriptions. Nor does Islam, as long as it is run and directed by clergy, very few of whom have any social-scientific background. The backwardness is the dead conventions of religion, a dumbed-down version of a prophet's behavior, stealing the prophet's own prestige and holiness, for themselves, to dress themselves up. Of course any spiritual work that reinforces the ego is off the rails and potentially harmful to society. It is not so easy to see genuine Islam in the Islamic world. The houses, for example, are almost all owned by men, when, of course, in Islam, property is owned by all who live therein, that is, everyone in the family gets a share.
Just as the reforming master of the 19th C., Jalal ad Din al Afghani, blamed the Muslim clergy for the backwardness of Islamic societies, so do contemporary observers see the usurpation by an uneducated clergy as the root cause of the troubles. He saw what we see, that the Muslim religion and the Prophet's own teaching, are different and diverging.
If the Left and the Right are bankrupt of prescriptions, where to now? Let us rephrase the question: what are the 3rd forces? We don't see any. Political history seems to be a simple alternation of left and right, collective and individual rights, a kind of dialectic. But it is not so simple. Hegel and Marx believed in a dialectic between 2 forces, when of course there are three involved. We see this on the atomic level, where the neutron, last to be discovered, is distinguished by a mass as great as a proton, but no charge.
So what is the 'third force?' Personal initiative, study and effort? "Where two are gathered in my name, I'll be the third." There is the kind of thinking that does away with all contradictions. It's this resolution that we seek, a Third which resolves the tension between plus and minus, active-passive. But the 3rd is Unseen: all but invisible. For example, to bake bread one needs flour and water, then a heat, which you can't see. Islam offers some possible solutions, but paradoxically, perhaps, the loudest teachers of Islam at Al Aqsa possess only, from my own experience, an incomplete awareness of the history and environment in which the Prophet lived. There are big differences between what the Muslim religion says today, and what Muhammad Qurayshi practiced in the city of Medina from 622 to 630 AD. You should know this stuff, it's basic. So reference “Islam under the Knife: Reform Brings Power” at the Middle EastSpeculum website.
Speculum is 'mirror' in Latin, while the word mirror derives from the Arabic mira'a, 'mirror' which is a masdar, a verbal noun, of the 4th Form Verb from the root Ra'a 'to see into.'
Those who study the documents on line at http://middleeastspeculum.blogspot.com will discover the genuine tradition of Islamic reform.
Tunisia –
Prime Minister Ghanouch kicked out, replaced on Feb.26, which immediately relieved tensions in the resistance. Muslim Brothers are welcomed home, and take their places in their mosques. Tunisia is the most tolerant Arab country, thanks to a liberal curriculum and textbooks. The older ones remember Pres. Bourguiba fondly.
Prime Minister Ghanouch kicked out, replaced on Feb.26, which immediately relieved tensions in the resistance. Muslim Brothers are welcomed home, and take their places in their mosques. Tunisia is the most tolerant Arab country, thanks to a liberal curriculum and textbooks. The older ones remember Pres. Bourguiba fondly. The prime minister is M. Ebsebsi, who accuses Ben Ali of treason (March 2).
Libya -
King Idris is similarly recalled in Libya. A small demonstration in Tripoli was broken up, apparently with two killed and some twenty seriously wounded. Rapid response with violence succeeded in breaking up these protests. The citizens might lay low – except it's Friday, the weekly common prayer and sermon. Eventful day. Special militias, not army: the Khamis Brigade, or some twelve other little armies. Internet shut down. Mosques become HQs for protesters. Outside Tripoli, following Friday prayers, demonstrations broke out in Tajura, a coastal town just 20 km. to the east, which led to a clash with police, who fired tear gas and fired with rubber bullets into the crowd. Again, there were casualties.
Also on March 4th another attack by Libyan elite forces on Zawiya, in which hundreds were injured and some four killed. Some 65 protesters remain missing The Qaddafi clique is sewing up a workable half-state, extending from Tripoli down through Ghadames, Sabha to Ghat and al Birkah. Qaddafi has been flying in African mercenaries into the airport at Sabha, then driving them up on the country's best tarmac road, to Tripoli.
Qaddafi has been ordering bombing missions on each day since March 2. On the 3rd of March, Qaddafi forces attacked the colossal oil terminal (and small refinery) at Marse al Brega, part of the larger Marse Burayqah complex.
Then on the 4th, Qaddafi's pilots bombed the big arms dump outside Benghazi, successfully, setting off huge explosions and eight fires. Many dead and wounded surround the base, leaving huge fires. Too bad the president did not heed the need, as the mad-dog colonel, the Qaddafi apparat, now secures his truncated nation.
Also on the 4th, Benghazi democratic forces with soldiers assaulted the oil terminal at Ras Lanuf, winning it. Qaddafi must be angry, and it may be that he can only fly a few of his pilots. On March 2nd and 3rd, 'the mad dog of the Middle East' (as R. Reagan called Qaddafi) fumed and vented to the microphone: 'we will kill all foreigners and Americans.”
King Idris is remembered fondly in Libya. The Idris family were sufi teachers. A small demonstration in Tripoli was broken up, apparently with two killed and some twenty seriously wounded. Rapid response with violence succeeded in breaking up these protests. The citizens might lay low – except it's Friday, the weekly common prayer and sermon. Eventful day. Special militias, not army: the 32nd Brigade, or some twelve other little armies. Internet shut down. Mosques become HQs for protesters. Outside Tripoli, following Friday prayers, demonstrations broke out in Tajura, a coastal town just 20 km. to the east, which led to a clash with police, who fired tear gas and fired with rubber bullets into the crowd. Again, there were casualties.
Also on March 4th another attack by Libyan elite forces on Zawiya, in which hundreds were injured and some four killed. Some 65 protesters remain missing The Qaddafi clique is sewing up a workable half-state, extending from Tripoli down through Ghadames, Sabha to Ghat and al Birkah. Qaddafi has been flying in African mercenaries into the airport at Sabha, then driving them up on the country's best tarmac road, to Tripoli.
Qaddafi has been ordering bombing missions on each day since March 2. On the 3rd of March, Qaddafi forces attacked the colossal oil terminal (and small refinery) at Marse al Brega, part of the larger Marse Burayqah complex.
Then on the 4th, Qaddafi's pilots bombed the big arms dump outside Benghazi, successfully, setting off huge explosions and eight fires. Many dead and wounded surround the base, leaving huge fires. Too bad the president did not heed the need, as the mad-dog colonel, the Qaddafi apparat, now secures his truncated nation.
Also on the 4th, Benghazi democratic forces with soldiers assaulted the oil terminal at Ras Lanuf, winning it after an intense battle. Qaddafi must be angry, and it may be that he can only fly a few of his pilots. On March 2nd and 3rd, 'the mad dog of the Middle East' (as R. Reagan called Qaddafi) fumed and vented to the microphone: 'we will kill all invaders, Americans, Europeans. We will set Libya ablaze.'
Libya is an archipelago, consisting of islands, isolated communities. Starting from west and going east, the main ones are Ghadames, Sabha, and in the far south, Ghat and Birka. They're connect to Tripoli, and the coastal towns of Tripolitania: Al Jami, Sabratha, Shurman, Janzur and of course Zawiye. The center column runs from Sirt (Surt) down through Al Waddan and Zilla to Al Qatrun and Tijarhi in the Sahara. The east, Cyrenaica, its head in Benghazi, includes Al Marj, Al Bayda, Shahhat, Darnah, and Tobruk. To the west, is Ajdabiya , where the road goes south, to Jalu and the Kufrah oasis. Add to these coastal towns and villages, lthe main ones being Sirt (Surt), Al Baida, As Sidra, Mishratah, al Khums.
Egypt -
After Friday prayers on March 4th, crowds swarmed and teemed outside, seething in guttural chants, as in the mosques, delegates search for some way out. The army and the regime's caretaker PM Ahmed Shafiq seemed to exercise control exclusively, closing out the protesters. Marshall Hussein Tantawi is a Sphinx, saying nothing. Everyone assumed he would freeze the democrats out. Had already done so. But the Armed Forces Supreme Council still rules. It consists of three judges from the Supreme Court, the Muslim Brotherhood, as led by Sobhi Saleh, and secular leftist, Tariq al Bishri. Conspicuously absent are labor unions. The workers strikes that followed the Jan. 25 revolution, were smothered with kisses from the democrat reformers. 'Just wait' they told the unions.
When a rumor started circulating: Shafiq was fired, and Hisham Sharaf appointed prime minister. All that anxiety just fell away as the government gracefully opened itself up to a people's shura. I think the deal went like this: “You (the people) choose 12 and we (the army/police) will choose 8. And the 20 of us will sit around a large table, and go through the issues one by one.”
Sometimes it takes nations generations to come together in a proportional representative administration. Military service, trade and the state's need for labor and foodstuffs all served to fuse different ethnics and sects together. That's true even to the point that war has artfully grafted our pacific approaches to social harmony. The Egyptian army 'deployed to the coasts,' as the Egyptians joke, has much to give in the way of spinning off businesses. Looking by sector, there are definite reasons not to privatize all of the army's businesses. Hosni Mubarak privatized many, but was careful not to damage or kill firms producing tools and materials, or offering lucrative services in the precious tourist industry, or making anything necessary to the function of many other firms.
This demonization of others precludes their gifting what they know. Are any of us strong and wise enough to not learn from our enemies? There cannot be real socialism till there is real capitalism. And cannot be real capitalism without real socialism. Now we need to find the third way, for only out of that, will Egypt's wound and sickness be cured. The IMF and World Bank lead the bankers in pressing for 'structural adjustments' but they've been in effect since 1981 and only impoverished the people and poisoned the air of Cairo. Obviously, the leaders of the world, the leaders of Egypt, must find prescriptions to the malaise. For Egypt at the present time, has more of a humanitarian than development need. Water, food, housing, jobs. Neither socialism or the present species of corporate capitalism, can guide these deprived nations.
Saudi Arabi -
Protests begun last Friday Feb. 27th in the east by Shi'a, were still demonstrating one week later. After prayers on Friday the 4th of March, small protests took place in Ad Dammam, Hafuf, and Khatif. These Shi'a just don't want to be discriminate against. They don't want to overthrow the royal family. They all benefited, and just to shore up that reality, King Abdul Aziz Abdallah II announced he's giving a cool $36 billion in goodies to the people. Can these hotheads be bought off? I wonder.
Reform in Saudi Arabia has a quiet history. Just five years ago, municipalities featured elections for local offices. The royal family is seen as corrupt, but not all or even most of them: many have worked hard to get where they are, educated overseas, or have spent years serving the country in some way.
Any talk of overturning the monarchy for a representative democracy, just makes it more likely that the crazed Wahhabis will inherit the whole thing, including what is under the ground (gas and oil and water). All along the royal family has been battling the stranglehold the Wahhabis have in the mosques. The grand mufti al Baz proved, quite ignorant and bigoted on any issue outside his own Hanbali orthodoxy, which, amongst the Wahhabis, gravitates on your appearance, your beard, your ouzoo, attendance at prayers, the enforced vanishing of women. I laugh because I've read Ahmend Hanbal and recall him saying: “God doesn't care about your clothes or appearances. God looks into the heart, the conscience. Woe to those who have no shame, who usurp God's prerogatives, you act in the name of the Prophet yet betray his spirit of mercy.” That's a paraphrase I recall from Ahmed Hanbal.
Bahrain -
Crowds still occupy the Pearl roundabout. The front of the mob educated Bahrainis who don't believe the protest is bv Shi'a against Sunni. The back of the mob are the younger uneducated Muslim-bent Shi'a who get encouragement, if not weapons, from Iran. They want the complete overthrow of the existing Sunni regime. In their view, the Khalifa family is way too pro-American.
Oman -
Small demonstrations in the Shuor industrial district outside Muscat, trigger a proportionate deployment by the authorities. Demonstrations protest the two killed on Feb.27th. Qabus announces undisclosed grants of cash to all Omani citizens. Then on March 5th, he fires two cabinet ministers, opening places for 'the people.' Life in Oman has been rather good; protests may persist, but numbers are very small. As small as they are, one can argue that the protesters have done more in the way of prompting reform, than forty years of parliamentary procedure.
Jordan -
Another situation where the opposition does not call for the overthrow of the monarchy, but insists on better representation, cheaper food, more affordable housing, and jobs. Zarqa, which I know, remains a hotbed of dissidence, just as it produced some al Qaida secret operatives – terrorists. Years ago they did the same.
Sudan -
North Sudanese forces are massing some 100 km north of Abiya, while Southern forces are massing near the lakes. Expect an attempt by the North to gut the Southern forces, using armor, artillery and aircraft.
This great war that rages from Mauritania to Mindinao, from Daghestan to Nigeria, will not be solved till Muhammad's practices at Medina receive as much attention as the regulations and legal casuistry of the Islamic religion, as conventionally understood.
The big differences relate to land-use and land-ownership, the rights of children (orphans) and women, a lack of clergy – Muhammad had none and couldn't imagine such a hierarchy – his diplomacy, relating to non-Muslims; to violence against civilians, to those who cause distress, fear and terror, and war.
Somalia -
African Union (Ugandan) forces beat back packs of youths heavily armed, led by die-hard Muslim pretenders, effectively denying the Somali people a government. “It's slow work, house by house.” We need keep in mind that the human frontal cortex does not fully mature till the early 20's. Youth can be dangerous in six or eight ways, and the revolutions in the Arab world, have been taken from those who started them. For what do young people know? They are more apt to demonize, fall for the politics of symbolic appeal.
Speculum is 'mirror' in Latin, while 'mirror' is mira'a in Arabic. The dictionaries says 'mirror' comes through the Old French from the Latin 'mirabilis' 'a wonderful thing.' Mira'a is the 4th form masdar or verbal noun, of the Arab root-verb ra'a 'to see into.'
About the author: John Paul Maynard has studied Arabic, Persian and Turkic literature since 1970. He has lived and worked in eight Islamic societies, working for NGOs and as an NGO. An independent diplomat, he has operated in Russia and Serbia, and in Sweden and Switzerland, as well as Central Asia and the Middle East. Since 1988, he has published of the Middle East Speculum Report, a newsletter, now on line, and The Central Asian Law Review, published irregularly but soon to have its own web site. He has taught in colleges in New England and holds degrees from Wesleyan and Harvard Universities.
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