Will revolutions degenerate into sectarian civil wars?

الفوضى غالبا ما يولد الحياة ، عادة عندما يولد النظام. -- هنري جيمس

Chaos often breeds life, when order breeds habit. -

- Henry James

The photo shows Libyan rebels tracking confused Qaddafi officers after NATO attack. 

Major events – state-ordered and organized VIOLENCE – afflicts Libya, Sudan and Syria. 

Yemen features constant confrontation, into its 4th month, with pro- and anti-regime protesters separated by the army. Ali Saleh almost signed a transition agreement, but balked, probably because all his family members have to get out of Yemen before he goes. Tunisia and Egypt enter critical phases, as we will see. Palestine and Israel deserve comment, and the United States, too. But let us re-trace our tracks back to the source – where this unrest took a visible form, to then spread.

Unrest and revolution in the Arab world is a year old. About this time last year (May 20 2010) the POLISARIO stage-managed near-constant demonstrations in the four huge refugee camps, centered on Tindouf, in the extreme SW of Algeria. The issue galvanizing the bedouin/Berbers is simply independence for the Western Sahara, a Sahrawi Arab Democratic Republic. 

After 12 years of delay, the Arab/Berber Sahrawis assumed that Morocco would obey the UNO directive to hold an independence referendum. That referendum was part of the ceasefire agreement stitched together by the American James Baker, in 1991. Baker, too assumed that the Moroccan king would honor the referendum.

Twenty years later Morocco has ignored all attempts at referendum, putting its faith is five huge berms, one built after the others, as Moroccan annexed more and more. Today it claims the whole of Western Sahara as its Southern Provinces. POLASARIO forces, jeep mounted and numbering only some 2,000, doesn't have the ability to make war. Algeria pulls their strings.

Morocco, however, has long traditions of control of 'the Southern Desert.' In fact all North African nations, concentrated on the coasts of the Med and the Atlantic, were nevertheless decisively influenced by their remote Saharan provinces. The West, too, was decisively influenced by all the gold coming up through the southern camel caravans: extra gold provided the metallic instrument by which Euro-capitalism flowered, first in coining – an anchor and means that led to the more risky paper money and bank drafts.

The 'victorious democrats' anxious to reform Egypt and Tunisia are at difficult point. Not only must they create a party with rivals, they must open dialogue with their enemies. Organizing new political parties takes years, but both want democratic reform in weeks. Older democratic parties are being submerged by Islamist groups, like the Justice and Freedom party, an umbrella for all Muslim Brotherhood organs.

There is also fighting in the Sudan, over the oil field at Abiye. Abiye is right on the border between North and South Sudan, so why the fight? Why not just split it? Well, the aspirations of both contestants require large amounts of petroleum.

Libya is at war with itself, and it does seem that Qaddafi is on his way out. His wife and daughter made it to Tunisia. He was running like a rat from private house to private house, but is now rumored to have escaped Tripoli. I suspect he's gone into the Fezzan, hustling up arms, ammunition and explosives from his friends to the south. His base is likely in or around Sabha, where he went to high school. 

Palestine too deserves attention: the American president calls for an independent Palestinian state on the 1967 borders, with possible land trade-offs to appease Israeli security concerns. Right-wing Israelis insist any recognition of Palestinian independence, or joint rule, will mean “more war and more killing.” They say this with a straight face, willingly ignorant of the fact that lethal Israeli 'collective punishments' have driven many Palestinians to violence.

American president Barack Obama gave a speech on May 19 in which he called for the creation of a Palestinian state basically with the 1967 borders. He then added that parties might want to trade tracts of land to meet security and access requirements. This is the same as the Israeli position in the past. But the Likud plays on racial fears, like Jim Crow America did.

Constantly one hears Israelis and their backers say “Israel is the only democracy in the Middle East.” They forget to add that with the Arab Bedouin, chiefs (sheiks) are generally elected. I've been at meetings which concluded with a show of hands – and that's democracy. What about Kuwait? Qatar? Turkey? Algeria? Morocco? What about the expensive protests of Arab educated secular folk? Is not that democracy?

I suppose all the governments have weaknesses. Israeli democracy is very limited and prejudicial, ethnically and in religious doctrine. Democracy is good if you're Jewish in Israel, real good if you are 'an observant settler,' for then you do not have to work. American will pay for the new homes, homes outside the Jewish state. They call it the Jewish state, but a quarter of the population are not of Jewish faith or Jewish extraction . So Israel is a Muslim state also. Curiously, Israel's supreme court, and many Arab-speaking Israeli judges, do not hesitate to use fiqh and the Shari'a in adjudicating the management of the many waqf or 'dedicated' properties in Israel. As for the Palestinian people - they have Jewish blood, most of them - an estimated 28% of the genome. Remember, back then, there were Jews everywhere in the Middle East. And especially in Syria, Aleppo (Haleb) and Dasmascus (Ash Sham.)

Syria -شمعة تذوب في يدي

'Ash-Sham is melting hot wax all over my hand.'

'Sham' means candle, and Syria – it's the name of Damascus, also. Today, May 20^th, some 44 protesters were gunned down as 'peace-loving' police moved to break up demonstrations around the country. Then another 17 were shot dead at the funerals of the above. The democrats in Homs were hard hit. Too much blood has been shed, and all this violence against peaceful protests, deprives the Al Asad regime of the credibility and legitimacy it had won earlier, by protecting minorities, helping the destitute, educating them, staunching sectarian terror,  and the opening of private banks and businesses. Americans seem not to know that the Ba'ath 'Renaissance Party' is small-business-oriented. More in Syria than in Iraq.

Analysts fear a sectarian civil war: the Alewites, Druse, Christians and Jews fighting the majority Sunnis, which are backed by the Muslim Brotherhood. We see this rising sectarianism not just in Syria and Lebanon, but in Egypt and Tunisia as well. The much-heralded Tahrir Revolution was bracketed by violence against the Copts. (in Alexandria and then Cairo) At first, the protests were anti-sectarian: the Islamists played no role; but Muslim-dressed MB  teenage cadets and acolytes were common figures at the ensuing rallies. But after the army has neutralized the democrats, the mullahs step in. The MB's new party, Justice and Freedom party, will likely get some 43% of the vote in September's elections. They are just much better organized than secular groups.

One common complaint behind the Arab unrest is the lawlessness, be it random criminality, or organized by civilians, clergy, the soldiers and/or the police. How can these security officials be put to use? How can they be vetted? Who is the enemy? Unfortunately, the new democrats see Israel and the USA as their enemies.

For the Salafis, democracy is taboo – because it believes people should govern people, while they think only God rules. Of course they have a special hook-up with the Almighty, so they see no need to obey earthy laws. They are above the law, in their view, or/and very selective. For example they appeal to the Shari'a not realizing that those ancient judges and jurists would have hung them from the nearest tree. For several reasons, mocking God not being the least.

If you desire new understanding of Islam, you might read two (2) short papers. One is “Islam under the Knife: Reform Brings Power” which shows that those 'Islamic' laws which so bother non-Muslims, were not part of the original revelation channeled by Muhammad Qurayshi. That is, laws of stoning, cutting off hands and noses, repressing women, dishonoring non-Muslims, plotting to overthrow governments, murder, and jihad. None of these are part of Muhammad's system worked out in Medina.

The second paper is “Land-use and Land-ownership in Islamic Civilization.” Here we isolated and 'lifted' the original seven forms of land tenure. We see that in true Islam, ownership was shared just like they bought shares in overseas or cross-desert ventures. If twelve family members live in a household, then there are 12 sections of the pie, though uneven. Of course this is not practiced today, because in just about everywhere in the Muslim word, men own the houses, if not the women themselves.

Finally, in Yemen, a transfer agreement has been agreed upon, (May 21 2011), but failed because Ali Abdullah Saleh needs iron-clad legal defense, an international agreement prohibiting any prosecution of him and his family. His excuse: members of the democratic opposition must be present at the ceremony. Dem leaders see such witnessing to be the kiss of death, so unpopular is Mr. Saleh. He'll come around in a week or too, we hope.

For the destiny of the Yemen is too link region to region: they are all different, different cultures. It seems that the new de-centralized democratic government, has a better chance to hold Yemen together than a president in a palace. No one tribe can dominate.  Democracy gives a better chance at this, because they're using non-government channels to communicate  (like cell phones, Facebook, e mail, twitter, text messaging, sat phones, wirless web and short wave radio). Nor will they be so bent by centralizing power.

Democracy may eventually do wonders in the Yemen. Tribal affairs are interrupted by Islam and by socialism and by secular education, but terms are being worked out, even as tribes split. The democratic forces from Makallah to Mocha, from Aden to Sana'a, can and will fit together, and not press rivalries and corruption. Some  dissident groups, except al Qaideh and the other MB cells, may not find themselves under this new democratic 'tent.' Lurking behind the scenes, are tribal and Islamist splits, like tornadoes, or a chain of winds dancing for dominance. Will the new rulers of the Yemen march against terrorist Anwar Awlaki? If Yemen does not move against al Qaidah of the Arabian Peninsula, then the Saudi, Omans and Americans will. Awlaki is an America who targets his home country.

Following huge demonstrations in Syria and Yemen, protests and riots broke out in Madrid, Spain. Young Spaniards just don't have jobs because the jobs are often taken by immigrants. Their situation is not all that different from that pertaining on the other side of the Straits of Gibraltar – Morocco.

Algeria once again serves as the spark, we suspect, for the May 21 demonstration in Madrid. It was the Algerian demonstrators who proved (Jan.1-2 2011)  that it was possible to disobey state orders. Democrats in Tunisia and Egypt saw this as a critical step.  Disarming the army and police was the critical move.


We read all comments carefully.

        John Paul Maynard

             Amherst, Massachusetts May 20 2011

SPECULUM NEWS: Starting in July, I will be the moderator for an on line discussion group on Islamic civilization, open to the 37,000 living graduates of the GSAS, Harvard University, world-wide. We have already restored links with our old department, CMES/GSAS.