Struggle on All Fronts

الحرب في سوريا وشارع ليبيا احتجاجات تنتشر إلى إسرائيل

Egypt – On July 29, a huge crowd of Islamists protest in Tahrir Sq., Cairo. Is this a threat to secular rule, the revolution? Refer to past postings for our take on Egypt's Muslim groups.

Libya – Rebel Chief of Staff assassinated by own troops. Abdel Fattah Younis killed by members of the Feb.17 Martyr's Brigade. Fighting breaks out in Benghazi between rebel democratic forces.

Syria - regime still bent on using force. Som e three thousand detained and tortured. 1,600 killed. That's too much pain for reconciliation. On the 31st of July, Syrian army and police units hit Hama, killing some 95. Other Syrian army attacks were centered on Idlib, Der Az Zawr and Dera'a, with deaths reported.

Yemen – the people of Yemen are under severe strain, and need immediate humanitarian relief.

Israel/Palestine – Israeli ethnic cleansing underway in the Jordan Valley. On the peace front, demonstrations are being planned featuring Jews and Arabs together..

Turkey - PM Erdowan sacks Turkish generals. Political Islam tolerates no opposition.

Nigeria - The spiritual leader of Nigeria's Muslims condemn police intervention in northern cities in pursuit of Boku Haram terrorists. Speaking out for crazed terrorists, augurs poorly.

Mali and Mauritania – mop up operations against al Qaeda

Somalia - UN finally gets bulk foods into Mogadisciu while AU forces fight back the crazed Shibab.  Terrible famine and drought afflicts southern Somalia. Many have lost all their livestock.

Afghanistan – loss of leaders in Qandahar cannot be immediately replaced

Chinese Turkestan (Shinjiang) - two violent incidents killing some 18. Kashgar is under curfew. It has been difficult for the press to get accurate information.

                                                                                           -John Paul Maynard

Assessing Reconciliation

ون فقط صعودا أو هبوطا على جانبي منع عودة الاضطرابات المصالحة إلى مصر. عناق الحشود في سوريةأي ركود -- المتطرفون فقط صعودا أو هبوطا على جانبي منع عودة الاضطرابات المصالحة إلى مصر. عناق الحشود في سورية

Either Up or Down – No Stasis

Progress is made or there is a descending process wherein a society may become more intolerant of beliefs different than one's own. The revolution itself may be a necessary movement to free up citizens' rights, but it should lead to some form of representational government, a achievement won through talks, not combat.

There are international efforts trying to somehow resolve or pacify extremely disturbed factions. In Yemen, president Saleh threatens to return from hospital in Riyadh, Said Arabia, to resume one-man rule.

In Libya, the UN is trying to mediate an end to the civil war, as the French tried last month, with no results. Libya looks like a stalemate, but close analysis shows the Libyan National Transitional government gaining a small advantage, supported as the rebels are, by the NATO fighter bombers.

In Syria, Turkey has offered its good offices, providing sanctuary for civilians fleeing from murderous Syrian army and police forces. The Ba'athi regime held reconciliation meetings on at least two occasions, but opposition leaders refused any such talks.

In each of these situations, reconciliation was and is rejected. Swhy? First, too much blood has been shed. Second, the regimes in question express no real flexibility: they will not step down from power; nor do they support any transition which would compromise their power and influence.

Which side does Time favor? This is a rather apostate un-Islamic formulation of an important question. The regimes in Libya, Syria and Yemen assume time is on their side. Looking up from their bunkers they believe that they, and tens of thousands of supporters, can out-last popular un-democratic movements.

The two Al Qaddafi leaders, Saleh of Yemen, and Bashar Al Assad of Syria, have made a bet that their security forces are, will be, ultimately faithful. Yet in each case the army has splintered. The despots control the grounds around them, and their bodyguards are not standard soldiers. They rule in close associations with their sons, in Libya and the Yemen, while Al Assad rules with his brother Mater.

My point is that, while it looks like a stalemate in these three Arab nations, it is not – the people are slowly gaining. Day after day, Qaddafi, Al Assad and Ali Saleh look like they can and do stand fast, but closer inspection reveals that the armies only control the grounds on which they are in any given moment. Isolated roadblocks expose those troops to attack. There are not that many cars and trucks in the first place, in these countries.

Since each of these three nations produce(d) oil, one would expect many automobiles and trucks. But that's not the case. Only the privileged owned cars and trucks: the governments made it difficult to own such even if one had the money.

Lack of cars and trucks and buses is an indicator of repression and not some environmental safeguard. The rebel democrats are not fighting for the right to own and drive a vehicle – or are they? Owning a car is better than having an uncle in the air force, although it is best to have both.

Libya, Syria and the Yemen need rationalize their political economies. The manner of their resisting indicates the regimes have no such intentions. They may say they support democracy, i.e, multi-party representational rule, but any such 'change' would no doubt keep them in power. For these despots, giving up power peacefully just does not trump survival and the wish to control.

In Egypt and Tunisia, continued demonstrations are focused on just this discontent with those who inherited full absolute power following the revolution. Marshall Hasan Tantawi in Egypt was never seen as a leader by the democrats. But he has the guns and radios, and a rigid, exclusive command structure. We will see whether free elections take place in September. Unrest will cause Tantawi to cancel them.

Such deep unrest is the reason why neither Egypt or Tunisia helps the Libyan rebels, directly. A battalion of Egyptian soldiers with a battalion of MIA tanks, landed by boat at, say, Misuratah, would cause a rapid contraction of the Qaddafi regime. But, alas, such a maneuver is not in the cards.

Then there is the third situation: Gulf Arab monarchies determined not to give away their tribe-based power. Saudi Arabia is preparing to promulgate an anti-terrorism law. The spokesman for the Human Rights First Society, Alm Ugaiteeb, calls such a law “a massacre of freedoms.”

King Abdullah ibn Aziz is greatly worried, first by the Iran-influenced Shi'a in the east of SA, then second, an invigorated al Qaeda nested in eastern Yemen, expanding to the north and the south.

These are the bad dreams of the Saudi royals, American bad dreams as well. Because the terrorists exploit the unrest, the opposition must clearly discipline their ranks, keeping the terrorists out. These revolutions owe nothing to the Muslim clergy. So they cannot let the clergy get into high places, because most of those personally ambitious, don't hesitate to defame their opponents – the sinful people who clip their beards and wear western clothes.

Morocco might seem like a happy exception: King Muhammad VI is driving hom,e some limited elections. but he'll retain rule over the army, the clergy, the banks, the yoiuth clubs, and much more.

In Saudi Arabia, the king is pushing through an 'anti-terrorism law,' which will provide a clear legal means to arrest, detain, torture, imprison and even execute protesters.

In Egypt, another protest was broken up. The protesters are angry that so many officials and police were exonerated for murderous acts back in January-February. They do not like Gen. Hasan Tantawi pulling the strings behind the scene. Readers of this blog has often heard complaints against 'Tantawi the Sphinx.' (After a violent attack by police in Alexandria, new crowds gathered at Tahrir Squaere, and tried to march on the defense ministry - to get Tantawi.

Algeria (Al Jaza'ir) resembles Morocco in ushering in reform without too many dead. President Boutiflika went through a big change of heart some eight years ago. Originally set up as a straw man for the Algerian armed forces, he turned 180 degrees – to the people. But he can't alienate army and police. Every day there are demonstrations somewhere in Algeria, usually in the suburbs around Algiers and Oran, but inland also, especially in Kabylie – the eastern hills where the Berbers live. The imposition of the Arabic language as the nation's official 'tongue,' alienated and polarized the Berber. Though many Algerians think they are Arabic, the dominant genomic source is Berber. Algeria is a land of mutually hostile languages: Arabic, French, Berber. It is the only Arab nation to have had to fight for its independence. And it went through a terrible civil war from 1992-1998. It has money, and the coastal population is integrated with the world economy.

But Algeria's problems are endemic, systemic, the lawful results of chaos, and the failure of law-and-order. It became a police state. But it took massive demonstrations and strikes to get the government to lift its emergency powers.

-John Paul Maynard

Either Up or Down – No Stasis

Progress is made or there is a descending process wherein a society may become more intolerant of beliefs different than one's own. The revolution itself may be a necessary movement to free up citizens' rights, but it should lead to some form of representational government, a achievement won through talks, not combat.

There are international efforts trying to somehow resolve or pacify extremely disturbed factions. In Yemen, president Saleh threatens to return from hospital in Riyadh, Said Arabia, to resume one-man rule.

In Libya, the UN is trying to mediate an end to the civil war, as the French tried last month, with no results. Libya looks like a stalemate, but close analysis shows the Libyan National Transitional government gaining a small advantage, supported as the rebels are, by the NATO fighter bombers.

In Syria, Turkey has offered its good offices, providing sanctuary for civilians fleeing from murderous Syrian army and police forces. The Ba'athi regime held reconciliation meetings on at least two occasions, but opposition leaders refused any such talks.

In each of these situations, reconciliation was and is rejected. Swhy? First, too much blood has been shed. Second, the regimes in question express no real flexibility: they will not step down from power; nor do they support any transition which would compromise their power and influence.

Which side does Time favor? This is a rather apostate un-Islamic formulation of an important question. The regimes in Libya, Syria and Yemen assume time is on their side. Looking up from their bunkers they believe that they, and tens of thousands of supporters, can out-last popular un-democratic movements.

The two Al Qaddafi leaders, Saleh of Yemen, and Bashar Al Assad of Syria, have made a bet that their security forces are, will be, ultimately faithful. Yet in each case the army has splintered. The despots control the grounds around them, and their bodyguards are not standard soldiers. They rule in close associations with their sons, in Libya and the Yemen, while Al Assad rules with his brother Mater.

My point is that, while it looks like a stalemate in these three Arab nations, it is not – the people are slowly gaining. Day after day, Qaddafi, Al Assad and Ali Saleh look like they can and do stand fast, but closer inspection reveals that the armies only control the grounds on which they are in any given moment. Isolated roadblocks expose those troops to attack. There are not that many cars and trucks in the first place, in these countries.

Since each of these three nations produce(d) oil, one would expect many automobiles and trucks. But that's not the case. Only the privileged owned cars and trucks: the governments made it difficult to own such even if one had the money.

Lack of cars and trucks and buses is an indicator of repression and not some environmental safeguard. The rebel democrats are not fighting for the right to own and drive a vehicle – or are they? Owning a car is better than having an uncle in the air force, although it is best to have both.

Libya, Syria and the Yemen need rationalize their political economies. The manner of their resisting indicates the regimes have no such intentions. They may say they support democracy, i.e, multi-party representational rule, but any such 'change' would no doubt keep them in power. For these despots, giving up power peacefully just does not trump survival and the wish to control.

In Egypt and Tunisia, continued demonstrations are focused on just this discontent with those who inherited full absolute power following the revolution. Marsdhall Hasan Tantawi in Egypt was never seen as a leader by the democrats. But he has the guns and radios, and a rigid, exclusive command structure. We will see whether free elections take place in September. Unrest will cause Tantawi to cancel them.

Such deep unrest is the reason why neither Egypt or Tunisia helps the Libyan rebels, directly. A battalion of Egyptian soldiers with a battalion of MIA tanks, landed by boat at, say, Misuratah, would cause a rapid contraction of the Qaddafi regime. But, alas, such a maneuver is not in the cards.

Then there is the third situation: Gulf Arab monarchies determined not to give away their tribe-based power. Saudi Arabia is preparing to promulgate an anti-terrorism law. The spokesman for the Human Rights First Society, Alm Ugaiteeb, calls such a law “a massacre of freedoms.”

King Abdullah ibn Aziz is greatly worried, first by the Iran-influenced Shi'a in the east of SA, then second, an invigorated al Qaeda nested in eastern Yemen, expanding to the north and the south.

These are the bad dreams of the Saudi royals, American bad dreams as well. Because the terrorists exploit the unrest, the opposition must clearly discipline their ranks, keeping the terrorists out. These revolutions owe nothing to the Muslim cldergy. So they cannot let the clergy get into high places, because most of those personally ambitious, don't hesitate to defame their opponents – the sinful people who clip their beards and wear western clothes.

Morocco might seem like a happy exception: King Muhammad VI is driving hom,e some limited elections. but he'll retain rule over the army, the clergy, the banks, the yoiuth clubs, and much more.

In Saudi Arabia, the king is pushing through an 'anti-terrorism law,' which will provide a clear legal means to arrest, detain, torture, imprison and even execute protesters.

In Egypt, another protest was broken up. The protesters are angry that so many officials and police were exonerated for murderous acts back in January-February. They do not like Gen. Hasan Tantawi pulling the strings behind the scene. Readers of this blog has often heard complaints 'Tantawi the Sphinx.'

Huge Demonstrations Rock Syria

Black and White or Shades of Gray?

Serious blood – some 13,000 souls – have perished in the so-called Arab Spring. Certainly they did not die in vain, as future events will show.

But the situation is not so black and white as it may seem to popular democrats, or regime police. Men join the police not to kill civilians but for give them safety; and when they are ordered to shoot into the crowds, they must seem to comply, or face death themselves. Over 500 police and army have been executed by their officers.

This is no apology for turning police and army weapons of civilians. When that happens, legitimacy is indeed lost. But must these revolutions become even more bloody? Forces of reconciliation are visible in Syria, in the Yemen, and in North Africa, from Egypt and Tunisia to Algeria and Morocco.

Libya -

The worst fighting has been in Libya, where we believe some 7,000 Libyans have perished (plus some 330 civilians from other countries).

France under Foreign Minister Francoise Fillon has offered Qaddafi generous offers of retirement, if he'll just move to Zimbabwe. He should be free there from the International Court and Interpol. Let us hope he does exit, with his sons.

But Qaddafi can't turn his back on those henchmen closet to him, his security, so they will have to emigrate also, for the Libyan democratic resistance is not going to forgive all after victory.

Libya has been at war with itself for four (4) months, which is not long for a civil war. Just this weekend we see a Turkish-sponsored meeting of all anti-Qaddafi forces, a effort to forge a better joint military 'method.'

Qaddafi has had four decades to stash large amounts of ammunition. The coastal road may be too hot to travel, but there are many other roads, some running parallel to the coastal road. The depots lie in these areas, and this large area of steppe in southern Cyrenaica (south of the Green Mountain), south Sirtica and south of Tripoli, in the Nafusah Mountains to the west, and further down, in the Fezzan (centered on Sabha).

NATO strikes have destroyed some 65% of Qaddafi's ammo, but 20% of what remains, is effectively out of limits. So Qaddafi's men have some 15% of normal pre-existing stocks. Nor can Qaddafi bring in enough through Africa, as Algeria is not about to let trucks through. In Mali and Chad and Niger, there are small low-intensity conflicts which are, like Libya, slowing working themselves out militarily.

My guess is Qaddafi will not fold. Why? Because he has successfully smothered any protests in Tripoli, a city filled with his supporters. It will not be possible for the democratic opposition to just take it over without a hell of a battle.

At the moment there is a renewed rebel offensive in the Nafusah Mountains, just some 70 km. from Tripoli. Advancing to Tripoli from the south has the advantage of taking Qaddadfi's compound without the mess of city fighting. NATO seems to agree.

Its jets have been hitting concentrations of vehicles, armor, rocket launchers, tank trucks and tank transporters, but is missing Qaddafi's cleverly-disguised artillery emplacements.

Though Qaddafi control Tripoli, there are assassination teams moving around, hoping to catch the Colonel at a bad time. One can imagine a suspense-filled drama entitled “Fear and Loathing in Tripoli” and “Break out at Brega.” Qaddafi and his son Saif should play themselves and die on schedule.

On the 16^th of July, the United States recognized the Libyan National Transition Council to be the lawful rulers of Libya, a legal status which would permit aid to be channeled to them – those who are fighting Qaddafi. Qaddafi is now the rebel, the renegade. We hope he and his son will bow out.

Syria -

Huge demonstrations, larger than ever seen before, involving over two millions of Syrian protesters – stuns and confuses the Syrian Ba'athi regime of Bashar Al Assad and his cruel brother Maher. Some 35 were killed Friday after prayers, and during Saturday. This time the cruel shabibha – Alawite irregular militia – were met with demonstrators with sticks – and they fled. This makes the Iranian Guards directing the police, angry. But Syrian police will kill the Persian hotheads if they shoot too many civilians in Syria.

Huge demonstrations took place in Damascus' Qaboun (14 killed) and Barzeh neighborhoods. In the Rukh ad Din neighborhood, shabibha attacked a wedding party, triggering violence, and more shooting. Other protesters were lured to a 'reconciliation meeting then arrested, while those fleeing were shot at. Poor form.

Talk about forgiveness...The regime held a big reconciliation meeting for the express purpose of charting out how to turn Syria into a representational multi-party democracy. But the hard-core militant opposition stayed away. It is hard to predict the future, but we look to a weakening of both the regime and the hard-core sectarian opposition: moderates should take office, replacing many loyal but deluded brutes.

Huge demonstrations broke out after Friday prayers on the 15^th of July, in Homs, Hama, even Damascus and Aleppo. Ba'athi thugs kill some 35, presumably rioters coming at them or carry or firing guns. Remember, the Syrian regime employs a million secret police, in some eleven different police and security organizations.

But that's only one in twenty. We assume, after these huge mega-demonstrations, that a full one half of Syrian citizens have exhibited some 'resistance.' So that means there is one cop for every ten demonstrators. No problem, in the old days. But today, superior communications amongst the protesters run circles around the police.

But Bashar and Mater cannot deploy many of these units, being fragile and Sunni-controlled. So the Iranian fanatics are called in. Their spokesman makes it very simple. “Our enemy is America.”

Frankly, we were surprised at the size of the demonstrations, several over 250,000 people. It seems everybody was out. Or almost. The government can do nothing faced with this level of civil disobedience. What can it do? Every time it guns down a protester, it signs its own death warrant.

The Iran revolutionary guards are close to the front line as Syrian army and intel sec. organs target group leaders and aggressive rioters. When last week the American ambassador drove up to Homs and Hama, people cheered. But the mullahs snapped, if you read some of their sermons: “Why, of all people, do you clap for the American?”

Of course the Sunni mullahs and muftis are virulent and have been ever since Britain and France forced the Sublime Porte to litigate all sectarian and ethnic groups as equal in court. This happened around 1860, after the Crimean War. It was then that Jews, Armenians, Shi'a, Druze were targeted by the Sunni clerics.

The idiotic beliefs and grotesque distortions of Islam preached by the zaney Wahhabi clerics found ample room to expand into Syria and Lebanon, in the form of the Muslim Brotherhood. The original Brothers (Ikhwan) were in Saudi Arabia, and were arch-Wahhabis. So the two are linked.

Sunni disaffection really did preclude Sunnis from leadership positions, and led to monsters like Saddam Hussein. Alas, Iraq was not to be one of the prosperous care-free Arab Gulf monarchies. But even the harmonic sheikhdoms are fearful of their Shi'a, and young intellectuals, particularly women, who are pressing for rights, even in Saudi Arabia.

Hama is a battle cry for the MB in Syria. As we saw last week, the Syrian army had ringed the city with tanks, just like 1982. (Note: we were in Hama in 1980 and found it tense even then).

Also, on Friday, another 4 protesters were shot dead in Dera'a in the south, while in the north, along the Turkish border, Syrian armor has been shelling Idlib (killing 2).

Five days back Turkish foreign minister Davutoglu met with Ahmedinijad in Tehran. Turkey will not let Iran stop the democratization of Syria, Iraq and Afghanistan. Islamic solidarity just does not seem to matter for much nowadays.

Yemen -

Even as we write, President Ali Abdullah Saleh may be in the air, ready to land in Sana'a to the cheering of his many supporters. Maybe not. We haven't yet received reports swhether Saleh actually made it back to Yemen. There, he is so weak that he can be just a figurehead. His relatives, however, control the Republican Guards, and are fighting in the south to keep the country together.

The north of Yemen is controlled by Gen. Ali Mohsen, a defecting general, while the south is controlled by Saleh's sons. There are constant clashes and fist fights all through Yemen as neighbors spar over the question of tribal dominance.

Meanwhile, the Al Ahmar familiar, merchants closely tied to the Saudis, are expected to put forth again the GCC agreement for transition, but are searching for a strong man that can hold Yemen together. The Saudis do not want a democracy on its borders.

This should worry the secular educated people who initiated this revolution. Who can they turn to? All the different factions check each other: no one rules. And this is good for a democratic emergence, if the country just does not come apart in the process.

-John Paul Maynard

e mail: johnpaulmaynard@post.harvard.edu

Will the Arabs Recover Their Economies?

Decremental Decline or Free Fall?

Unrest in most Arab nations impacted squarely on their economies, and none have fully recovered. Food is too expensive, fuel scarce, and many fewer affordable professionals. Millions of jobs need to be created. Millions of new homes/ But what is happening? Syria and Libya, once the most oppressive of Arab regimes, are wracked by war and unrest. Others, like Yemen, are losing their modern sector: short of NG, propane, diesel, aviation fuel, kerosene and gasoline, and wood, the people of Yemen have to remember the ways of their ancestors. Once they were able to thrive in this complex little world, without oil and power. Is it decremental decline – or free fall? Here we look at an Arab summer.

Tunisia, Egypt, Syria, the Yemen, Sudan, Bahrain – these are countries hoping to recover from the economic damage wrought by the unrest. We are worried that they are falling into a black hole, from which they cannot climb out. Many poor countries just cannot get out of their poverty: while some citizens get rich, many others become poorer. Subsistence farmers and shepherds have been given a cold shoulder since about 1950, because high-volume cash crops use tractors and other equipment, as well as water and fertilizer. They look down at the fellaheen. But now, with sustained high oil prices, the small farmers' time has come - to stage a return.

The crisis of energy costs has arrived a bit early for some, but we are not under any illusions or delusions. I worked in areas of the world too poor and remote to be plugged into the power/petrol 'socket.' I know people can live without burning any hydrocarbons, but it does require some new appropriate technology – like animals.

The unrest of the Arab Spring was inevitable. So too the wars in Syria and Libya. But are not the people being caught in a downward spiral? In Libya, some of the towns have gone for four months with no electricity, cell phones, water or fuel or food. Yemen is collapsing, whole sections breaking off. Trouble in Egypt and Tunisia. Algeria just can't start building enough housing, because so many are on the take.

Jobs. Jobs. Jobs. Not nearly enough. The present power-possessors have neither the will or the imagination to create millions of new jobs. It can be done. Many of us in the USA remember President Johnson's CETA program. Many, many important issues and imperatives were accomplished using CETA workers. But that takes money, and even the government of the USA, does not have enough. It is forced to raise its debt ceiling. Or the whole thing crashes and seizes up with smoke rising up all over the place.

Egypt -

On Friday the 8th, we see a huge demonstration in Cairo at Tahrir Square. Over 250,000 were present, as the side streets to the square were full of protesters.

The unrest has been bubbling for some time. Few politicians and police have been called to account. The army has been quietly managing the reform process from behind the scenes. Marshall Tantawi is playing the Sphinx. The army has set up basic guidelines – and the bulk of the new politicos have been preparing party platforms. But for those who perished or were grievously wounded in Egypt's February revolution, friends and family of the dead demand justice.

Most Egyptians (and Tunisians) are suffering higher food and fuel prices. Many have lost jobs. Industry is still limited by government management. Tourism has yet to regain pre-2011 levels. New housing has failed to appear. The world downturn is as much responsible as are local conditions – the unrest. Greed and corruption are active forces.

Libya -

The pace of the war quickened. Qaddafi has his hands on war material but his forces cannot respond everywhere. In fact, even sections of Tripoli are off limits to army soldiers and intel police: no go areas, lethal.

Last month, another front in the war opened, in the Nafusah Mountains in Libya's northwest. At the time of this writing, Libyan democratic fighters, advancing from the southwest, are some than 52 km/30 miles from Tripoli. Qaddafi cannot drive the rebels out, and we expect a great exploitation of this advance, both by Libyan democratic forces (armed to the teeth with tanks and rockets) and by NATO jets. Can they work together?

Sudan -

On Saturday the 9^th we see the birth of South Sudan. The South is all celebration, but it is the north which we need watch. Will black Africans be molested in Northern Sudan? Does the Sudanese army have orders to shoot civilians? Are there Northern forces fighting still in Southern Sudan?

The same banal miss-use of military forces against black African civilians is apparent today in south Kordofan, where some 2,000 Nuba have been killed just in the past two months. Experts say they are fighting over oil, as in Abiyeh. But there really is not much oil down there. Why fight? Abiyeh should be shared.

The army offers the best deal, even for women. Half of Southern Sudan's budget goes to the army. “We need an intelligent army” which “does not involve itself in politics” said one returning intellectual. So many accomplished people have returned to the South, we literally have a new kind of nation. It is outward looking, ebullient, ready to absorb investment financing without the corruption. Too many good people in Sudan for corruption to flourish. Having been fighting for two decades, there is a strong ethnic, partIslamic, part Christian, part Pagan, and part secular educated scientists.

The Yaman -

Yemen is breaking apart, though the government does control the key installations in Aden, Al Hudaydah and Sana'a. The tribes have all flexed their muscles, setting up checkpoints along the roads. One pays them to gain entry. I believe we do see a curious balance-of-tribal power which will protect Yemen's assets even as it people and government collapse. These are the poorest of the Arabs. Yet Yemen is a complex country – some 16-20 tribes and sectarian and labor organs all jostling for influence and a cut of the government's budget. People are fighting for jobs, or in the hope of getting a job.

Saudi Arabia -

Educated Saudi women tried a demonstration last month at the wheel of vehicles, and some were later arrested and put in prison. There just were not enough women with vehicles to pull off any mass protest. But the police were quickly overwhelmed, and could only stop a fraction.

What about unrest in Saudi Arabia's eastern provinces? Jobs have long been available to Shi'a in the oil extraction infrastructure. The Shi'a are former maritime owners and operators, with some Persians who settled in centuries past.

The cities to watch are Al Hofuf, Al Mubarazz, Al Khobar and Ad Damman.  

Saudi Arabia exhibited the will to flex its muscle when it intervened in the unrest in Manama, Bahrain.

Saudi Arabia has suffered two recent loses. First, the Saudis failed to sway the OPEC to raise its output, so to lower world oil prices. That led to some fisticuffs in Vienna in early June. And the Arab allies (SA, UAE, Qatar, Oman, Bahrain), all sheykhdoms, failed to persuade Iran and Venezuela and Ecuador, to reduce oil prices, thereby screwing hundreds of million people all over the globe.

The refusal of the price (for oil) to decline like they did in 2008-09, combines with other negative factors to create a negative vortex (like a water going down a drain or toilet). That decline is both decremental and free fall. There are countervaling factors and forces, but these are best found in your own locale, your own surround, the sensorium.

Readers interested in the decline of the USA might like to read http://speculumusa.blogspot.com. We remain indifferent. The same concern we have regarding poverty in Arabia we can easily find in our view of the USA, or Europe. I don't like to say it - we are not alarmists - but, in case you have not noticed, civilization is falling apart.

Seen in a larger context, there appears to be all the ingredients for growth, but after several trillions of dollars have been lost, the recession became a depression. Debt alone precludes much government efforts to stimulate new job growth. So there is not the feed money to start new businesses. The slow erosion of the dollar makes most everyone poorer. Housing prices remain low, with millions in hock. But the cliff-edge, the drop point, is cheap oil from the Middle East. It seems we are losing that, and that is serious.

The decline is a decline of the over-elaborate overly-expansive 'American-style' or 'Euro-style' economy, based on the burning of cheap Mid East oil. When gasoline becomes too expensive to burn, the connections tying community to community snap, one by one. When times get bad, one can make a new home close by.

In times past, the peoples of the Muslim world knew how to build their own houses, but this knowledge is dying out in many regions. Meanwhile, population rise is unrelenting, the demand for housing quickly outstripping supply.

Immense sums have been given over to developers and contractors to construct mid and lower income housing, but in most of those cases, the contractors added a few touches and doubled the rent, appealing to the newly prosperous, the middle class. But that's over. The middle classes have dwindled, if we use money as the criterion. 


Secular educated people, many of them social scientists, are leading these revolutions. One might call these new governments 'smart' in that, in the case of Egypt, Tunisia, and even in Algeria,  one sees no one leader but instead committees with local competence on the ground, in the streets. We do think the Muslim Brotherhood will assist in  neutralizing the Salafi hotheads. The Arab people have grown enough through war to not admit such narrow clerical actors as the Salafis. Some want to kill innocents, even Muslims.

-John Paul Maynard

A Huge Demonstration in Syria - Largest Yet.

الحكيم العدو هو أفضل من صديق أحمق. "A wise enemy is better than a foolish friend."

Intensification and Focusing in the New Waves of Protest

Syria -

In Syria (and in the Yemen), huge crowds took to the streets, the largest demonstrations yet, some say. In Damascus, demonstrators avoided downtown, but congregated in streets, careful not to block all traffic. In Hama, the long-suffering district of Bab Sba'a saw 4 protesters were gunned down by a tank.

Some 24 have been killed this Friday, July 1, 2011: Homs, Idlib, Hama, Damascus and Latakia, plus the eastern Kurdish towns (e.g. Amouda) – all featured 'huge manifestations of discontent.'

After 14 weeks of unrest, some 1,300 civilian protesters (or on-lookers) have been shot dead. The Syrian government says some 500 of its soldiers and police have been shot dead. Not a pretty scene. Gunmen have sought to use the demonstrations for sectarian ends. (The Muslim Brotherhood has sent arms and fighters over the Shouf Mountains into Syria. How many, we do not know.)

On the 27^th of June, there was an attempt to reconcile. The government permitted a large meeting, featuring some 150 Syrian intellectuals. An effort to exchange reform ideas, maybe eventually to ease a transitional government in place.

But most rebel organizations rejected the reconciliation, failing to attend the meeting. Maybe they were afraid. In any case, they stayed away. They vow to fight till Bashar Al Assad (and his creepy brother Maher) is dead or gone. We see no end to it. But only crackpots want a sectarian war.

The possibilities are breath-taking. A poor, socialist nation, Syria has cleverly mechanized its agriculture, setting up co-operatives and agronomy extenion classes, as well as granaries. Like other Mid East countries, Syria has long been intent on upgrading its housing. The little cinder block houses up in the mountains above Damascus, were liveable even in the winter. They remind me of 'high Kabul' – those neighborhoods that go right up the mountain. In Kabul, there's no natural water on those hills, but the Syrians used Soviet help to drill deeply.

The Arab Spring affected many Syrians, even since  2 January 2011 when an Algerian protest defied the police orders to disperse and obey curfew. The regime's inner culture of state violence behaved as predicted: the police and army shot right into civilians, unarmed, often in mosques or coming out of them. There's little doubt that villages are arming themselves against each other. But where will that lead?

No one wants a sectarian war – except for a few crazed clergy or their henchmen, or gangster gun-runners, profiting from sales to both sides. Like the Guns of August, this August may see a 'broadening of the demonization' of your neighbor, and the grotesque dumbing down of commune identity into “us against them:” Black and white. The superb oral defamation becomes, next week, fingers on triggers. "Do not bear false witness against one another."

The Sunni-Shi'a conflict is a luxury that the people of the Western Asia can ill afford. Exactly what are their differences? They both claim to follow the same man. But Muhammad Qureyshi was a modest man. He didn't see himself as a messiah or universal law giver or even as a teacher. The Qur'an keeps a tight rein on Muhammad saying that he is only one who warns. That 's what a prophet does: warn.

Under Bashar and ten others, Syria has grown in certain sectors, held by certain families. For three months we didn't hear of demonstrations in Damascus and Aleppo (Halab). But now all these wealthy businessmen and their families and employees, now verge on bankruptcy. And so, they're going out onto the streets themselves.

Syria was replete with clandestine groups, including firms and neighborhood watch police apparat. Now, curiously, these groups are cultivating both pro- and anti-Bashar demonstrators. Many have to do that – play both ends off the middle.

Libya -

Mu'ammar al Qaddafi was indicted by the International Court, together with his son Saif al Islam, for crimes against humanity – the brazen use of military weapons against the Libyan people.(June 28).

Libyan rebels based in Tunisia, have deployed into the Jabal Nafusa and are now within 50 miles of Tripoli. Pro-Qaddafi army units have tried to surround these forces, yet have so far failed. This front draws off two brigades of the army, which would be used elsewhere, to commit atrocities and to terrorize.

On July 1, Qaddafi vows to bring the war to Europe. No doubt there are groups of Libyans who want Qaddafi to succeed, but they are diminishing. If European states want to protect themselves, hire some democratic rebels to infiltrate their groups.

Russia announced June 30 that the Euro-American war against the Colonel was highly 'immoral and improper.' The Russian leadership worried that unrest will spread into Russian streets. Vlad Putin would fire into the crowd, but Dmitri Medvedev?

The Republicans in the USA publicly chastise and castigate the president for 'going into Libya when we have no interest there.' We find this the height of irony, because the only economy and market these Republicans know, the Americans ones, is based on cheap oil from the Middle East and North Africa.

Their religious leaders are also ignorant of the many mistranslations of their scriptures, so end treating their religion as a holy war, in America as in Pakistan, a fight to the finish, against the Muslim fiend. This is how some Americans thinks, and not just ijn the South.

The future of Libya is, like Syria, full of promise, opportunities not even imagined just a few months ago. Who could pass up retirement in, say, Cyrenaica? We know there are many scholars in Libya, that they have certain keys, no one else does, an inner knowledge of the Saharan ocean, but a knowledge of the oceans too – the Atlantic. That explains why there is more than one rock inscription in the USA written in ancient Libya using Ogam (learned from Tarshish).

Egypt -

Readers of this report know we have been waiting for another Tahrir manifestation: some 5,000 protesters gathered there, in Cairo, to protest the lenient treatment being given to many police suspected of murdering Egyptian unarmed civilians. Attending this demonstration were many mothers and sons and brothers and sisters and friends, of those killed by the police. Here we see straight-forward vengeance. The police felt the same way for they didn't hesitate to attack, injuring some 1,000.

The Arab Spring has been ruinous to national and urban economies. It's not hard to see why the authorities wanted to keep Tahrir Square free for traffic. Food prices, the price of clear fresh water, electric power, kerosene, gasoline, NG, propane – all way up in price– double in just 16 months. So even in rich Bahrain, there are starving Shi'a.

Yemen -

The Yemeni people are in rough shape, lacking NG, gasoline, diesel, electric power, cheap food, decent housing, and enough food. Yemen is already a humanitarian disaster, and we will just close our eyes if and when Ali Abdullah Saleh returns to Sana'a. His two sons hold command positions in the army, and he has relatives all over – many have gotten rich. One reason Saleh will not resign the presidency, is that he must protect his patrimony =- all his 'children.' They can't liquidate their properties so fast.

Yemen consists of some 16 regions, and they are all diverging, that is, they falling back on more traditional; practices, like fishing from small boats, or erecting dikes across wadis, very old tricks, perfect for a Yemen which needs to grow its own food.

The tribes are boss – you can't travel without tribal permission. The remote eastern third of Yemen , including the Hadramaut, is an al Qaida safe-haven. The US is reportedly beginning a drone war 'in earnest' against Al Qaida of the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) but, since they do not have any of their people on the ground, they are relying on agents whose allegiances and affiliations are 'opaque.'

Morocco -

A referendum on a new constitution passes by a wide margin. King Muhammad the Sixth announces his signature of the reforms. He's giving up all authority except the army, the judiciary and the clerics. He forgot to mention the several branches of the secret police. So what powers do the king give to the rabble: A prime minister is to be elected, and a parliament that is competent.

Many progressive protesters don't believe it. But they are not going to turn on their king. Morocco is so fractious most everyone looks to the monarchy as their last hope. The issue of the southern Sahara is not discussed. It is true, down in Samara, in the Western Sahara, people are doing swell. But three out of four of them are settlers from Morocco proper. The natives have been chased out and now dwell in tents outside Tindouf, Algeria. With only 2,000 fighters, they present no real security threat. Morocco has had some bombings, targeting foreigners, it seems, but these were the work of Salafis, not the 'rebels', not the 'remote remnants of a Tuareg nation.'

But behind these ceremonial event stands the reality of Morocco's selfish annexation of the Spanish Sahara. As we saw earlier, it was this refusal to hold a UN-mandated referendum, that touched off a summer and autumn of protests, chiefly around Tindouf SW Algeria).

Morocco's successful referendum is not be seen a sign of reconciliation for many. Some 4 million Moroccans declined to vote at all. Just as the Israeli annexation of Palestine will always be seen as stolen land, so too will Morocco's annexed Southern Sahara be always seen as an illegal land grab. The right wing leaders of both nations do not entertain the thought that the original inhabitants might have some rights, like owning their own land. US and European response has often been contradictory.

Bahrain -

Government holds talks with Shi'a opposition. We do not know whether King Hamad Al Khalifa or the crown prince Salman bin Khalifa are acting under pressures (from the USA), internal and external. The awful irony of the Bahraini situation is that the government had long welcomed parliamentary discussions. Why do the Shi'a see talking in parliament anathema? The other weird thing is that 'innocent' 'secular non-sectarian educated protest occupying the main traffic circle (Pearl Square), were shot upon, and this led the back of the crowd (sectarian Shi'a imams) to take over and then maneuver protesters, increasing their demands to the removal of the government, its royal family, the police, intel and army command. What, are they jokers?

With the government opening up talks, will the back of the protests come forward? Or will the secular non-sectarians re-capture the opposition movement? While these reconciliation meetings were going on, a large group of cleric-led protesters were dispersed with water cannon and tear gas.

Sudan -

Unnecessary war in South Central Sudan: Kordofan erupts in violence as peasants scamble to get on the right side of the line. Sudan becomes two nations next Saturday. "The southern Sudan is like a new-born baby, needs delicate care if it is to survive.

Israel/Palestine -

The Free Gaza flotilla is some 56 boats planning to break through Israeli defenses and land supplies to the beleaguered HAMAS reps, who've not been so popular these days. There was the HAMAS-led 'unity agreement,' which fell apart when FATAH realized the religious bigots were going for control over all of 'Islamic' Palestine.  FATAH under Mahmud 'Abbas has a more practical approach to the Israelis. So once again we see that Palestinians fall victim to the politics of symbolic appeal.

Israel and Gaza may be existential enemies, but HAMAS keeps the lid on, forbidding the launching of rockets into the West Bank and Israel. So, in acting against certain Salafi organs and cells, the HAMAS is a perfect  ally to the Jews. As long as the Arab leaders keep declaring their wish to drive Isfrael into the sea, the Israeli right will use that rhetorical ill-discipline to its own advantage; even to the point of annexing whole tracts of Arab land.

By John Paul Maynard

The author is the new moderator of the graduate alumni discussion group on Islamic civilization, Harvard University.              johnpaulmaynard@post.harvard.edu