Syria –

The moderate secular leadership of the Syrian resistance met with European leaders today, on the 12th of January 2014. The growing prominence of Al Qaida-linked Jihadi militants is largely because of direct assistance in sending arms and ammunition. Again, the same actors are involved.

Next week features a more comprehensive engagement putting rebels face-to-face with regime diplomats. The international community will try to persuade all three sides to put down their weapons. We examined the conditions necessary for a ceasefire, in several issues in 2012.

There are no fixed lines in this war. The regime must control at least 85 of some 123 districts. Syria looks like a checker board with three colors instead of two. The regime is still dropping barrel bombs on civilians. The secular rebels, whose revolution this is, are under pressure to perform. Casualties have been very high these past few weeks.

In the east, pro-Al Qaida militias have won control over Raqqah on the Euphrates River. That means there is a direct corridor for Sunni Jihadists

According to the UN, in the past three years, some 9 million Syrians have lost their homes. 160,000 Syrians are trapped without water or food in outlying districts of Damascus. Meanwhile, the Syrian Army is active in Aleppo, killing civilians as they emerged into daylight.

The world has not seen such a massive displacement of people, at least in this century. Syria is melting down. Outside powers do not want to discuss peace as long as their favorites are in disadvantageous positions.

In next week’s Syrian Peace Conference in Geneva, the original Sunni militants, led by Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, may not attend. Any peace deal must replace Bashir Al Asad and his henchmen.

Iraq –

War breaks out as Iraqi soldiers shell Fallujah and Ramadi. The Sunni minority is hanging on. All the pressure on, and exclusion of, the Sunnis by the Shia-led government, has left them with little choice except terror and bombings. Anbar province in Iraq’s southwest is Sunni controlled. The Sunni Jihadists in Raqqah, Iraq, have opened a corridor for Jihadis further west, to make it to Syria and Iraq.

Over the past two years, bombs have been going off weekly. They are usually planted in markets or churches or mosques or police and army outposts. Iraq has asked the USA for help and Mr. Obama will be providing Predator drones.

Egypt –

With presidential elections looming, players are jockeying for position. The local buzz in Cairo and Alexandria is that Maj. General Abdel Fattah al Sisi will join the race. Meanwhile, the Muslim Brotherhood has been forced underground. An urban terror is now part of life in and around Cairo.

In just a week or so, Egyptians will be going to the polls in a referendum on replacing the MB constitution (approved 2012). Adly Mansur remains interim president.

Yemen – 

To understand Yemen, one need remember the showdown between the Yemeni government and the Al Qaida of the Arabian Peninsula. AQAP was established in January 2009. The Yemeni government lost no time making war on AQAP. By late 2009, tens of thousands had been displaced. In February 2012 AQAP bombed the presidential palace, forcing Ali Saleh to flee the country.

The 2011 revolution in Yemen was to prevent Ali Saleh from handing over rule of Yemen to his son. That will not happen. The presidential platform of Abd Rabbu Mansur Hadi is multi-faceted. He has managed to extend government services, particularly in the south. 

One should bear in mind that Yemen’s government is not in full control. The tribes step in, setting up roadblock ‘checkpoints’  Will those tribes fall into line behind President Hadi? Some already have joined the government. Many are sitting on the fence.

Mansur Hadi comes from the south, from Abyan province. Maybe this helps him knit the fabric of Yemen back together. He is reforming the army, disbanding the Revolutionary Guards, and setting up military units whose prime mission will be the preservation of a strategic reserve.

Libya –

After Qadafi was killed, the militia did not put down their weapons. Today, there some 1,700 militia units in Libya. Most are well-armed. They control stretches of road, neighborhoods, sections of the grasslands. Rebels in Misrata and Tripoli have little incentive to cooperate with Benghazi. Huge stockpiles of weapons and ammunition were transferred to Jihadis. The problems in Niger and Mali following the overthrow of Qadafi, were made possible by these weapons.

Our investigation of newly-appointed national Libyan officials came out positive.

Turkey - 

The ruling party Justice and Development Party is fighting to suppress the Gulen Foundation. We believe the Turkish poresident is trying to grab all power. He already dominates the executive and legislative wings of government.