Libya Free After 43 Years

Libyans Take Over Their Country

The capture of Qaddafi's compound at Bab al Azziyah by rebels and its subsequent occupation by the people of Tripoli on August 24 means that some mopping up operations are required, so people are happy but fearful. In the east, in Cyrenaica, rebels pushed into Al Brega and passed Ras Lanuf on August 24. By the 26th, they are likely passing Al Sidr, closing in on Sirte. Meanwhile, preparations for a new government, a new society, are intensifying.

But where is the mad dog of Tripoli? As long as the Qaddafis are loose, they will serve as a potential lightning rod for loyalists. Those loyalists are loose in Tripoli, but some ten thousand rebel democratic fighters are now converging: the hunt begins. Where is Qaddafi?

He most likely hiding in a private compound, one owned by one of his military commanders. He might be able to make it south to Sabha, but that would mean traveling off road, since the rebels control the road to the Fezzan. Once in the south, he would be free of NATO aircraft and drones. It was in Sabha that Mu'ammar Qaddafi committed himself to 'revolutionary action.' From there he could make his way deeper into the Sahara.

On the 25th the Libyan Transitional National Council announced that free passage would be given Qaddafi if he just turned himself in. But the Mad Dog of the Magreb is too wily to fall for that. He'll die in Libya, he and his son, Saif.

For over four months there were some one dozen assassination and intel teams operating in Tripoli. Using fast autos, these undercover warriors pursued leads developed through their neighborhood contacts, or from NATO. Now some three thousand rebel fighters are searching for him. Every structure in the city will be thoroughly searched. But Qaddafi could still disappear. Even by submarine.

The Libyan people are free to pick up the pieces and attempt to erect a just, democratic government. Law and order will need to imposed. All the various long-suppressed tribal and sectarian organs will come out, already organized. But the power remains with the people – the secular, educated people who simply want justice, some chance to make it money-wise, and to choose their own leaders.

Some Arab theorists want an American-style democracy, others want a European style. The first features a strong president, and a clear triangle of powers as a break to executive power. The European style is of course the parliamentary, with a prime minister who may be appointed, or elected.

Our recommendation is neither of these are right for Libya. There does not have to be single leaders: the people can govern themselves and will rejoice in doing so after nearly a half century of gruesome oppression. Another weakness in both European and American democracies is policy paralysis. Parliaments can be inflammatory, while a 3-part government of the Americans, is too often dead-locked.

Qaddafi prevented social institutions to arise naturally, but imposed his own courts, training institutes, banks, and financial agencies, tribal soirees, and private officer corps. Now these are all down. Some organs might be revived and altered, but in other cases, entirely new institutions have to be founded and funded.

China and Russia are using their chairs on the UN Security Council, to block the distribution to the THC of Libyan funds overseas. South Africa also refused to release gold to the rebels. Qaddafi of course is a legend in Africa, greatly hated by some, but welcomed by others. But only because he had money. Now Mu'ammar has a bundle of Libyan bank notes and foreign currencies, but that would last him a week. He will have to depend on his properties in Africa ikf he wants to keep living in style. I think the International Criminal Court will catch up with him. For Mu'ammar was a Jekyl/Hide split personality. For 42 years he ruled like a tyrranical king, by force, of course.

One might hope that Qaddafi left some apt advice in his little Green Book. But he remained ignorant of the actual Muslim legal texts. He never trusted anyone mentioning Islam. He locked up (or killed) thousands of Islamists. This was highly catastrophic and ironical, because the Libyan jurists follow the Maliki school of jurisprudence, which is arguably, the most liberal of the four Sunni schools (mazhab). Malik ibn 'Anas should be something of a patron saint, able to apply Islamic land law to create new institutions and provide women with a measure of ownership of houses.

One thing the Libyan architects could do is to study the Al Muwatta, by Malik ibn 'Anas, for directions of how to create local welfare institutions; re-instate the commons; collect taxes and create political forums.

The Arabs are much more into politics than people in the West, speaking generally. They have no problem meeting and talking about things. The tendency is to trust others, or take them on face value, but real critical thinking is required to meet any of the rebels' objectives.

The Libyan civil war last a half year. Over that time, the people in the coastal cities suffered grievous lack of electricity, communications and food and water: all scarce. Now the nascent authorities must bring in all that is needed to get the country up running again.

But before that can happen, the Mad Dog of Libya must be hunted down.

Syria – Russia blocks UN transfer of the Syrian case to the International Criminal court. Bashar and his crew are conducting continuous operations against pockets of resistance in Homs, Hama, Dayr Az Zaur, Latakia, Dera'a and suburbs in Damascus.

The Syrian army is made up of Sunni conscripts, so Bashar al Assad has brought in hundreds of adviser/snipers from Iran. They are from the Al Quds brigade, basically, the Revolutionary Guards. They're a terrorist organ.

The Ba'athi masters are incredible as they murder Syrian innocents. The West want the Ba'athists out – they've lost their legitimacy. Meanwhile, Russia, China, Iran and even Turkey are making sure Bashar and his brother remain on top.

Yemen – Whispers behind the Curtain

The Saudis and the American keep Ali Abdullah in his hospital in Riyadh, leaving his people to work it out by themselves. But tensions are high. First, there is little clean water and food, no NG and little gas and diesel. Jobs can't happenm because there's not enough money to pay workers, no matter how important their work.

The revolt in Yemen stemmed from an alliance between the shibab (the youth) on the street, and the intellectuals and professionals. Now that division has opened up. This more ominous than the return of Saleh. A new government cannot be formed, unless, as the shibab demand, all the officials and officers are placed under arrest to be tried for murder. These demands are not just: many officials and officers are not corrupt or guilty. They are needed in the new government. But the shibab say no. So the rebels in Sana'a are deadlocked.

Syria – Huge demonstrations in Homs 

 took place following the end of prayers on Friday. Aug. 26. The killing, maiming and imprisonment of protesters (and soldiers who refuse to kill), is taking place, in various towns. Outside Syria, in Istanbul, Syrian rebel reps are trying to figure out how they will fight the Ba'athists, and what kind government would be best for post-Assad Syria.

European parliaments work only when they are independent of the king or prime minister. It not clear which if any of the Arab states can create a two-part freedom, a balance, through which a parliament might legislate and a PM or president might veto. The American tri-partite system on the other hand is too balanced. Leading to gridlock and ultimately, to a failure to adapt to change.

Can the Arabs come up with their own multi-party system? Can new constitutions be approved? I believe the Arabs have their own traditions of democracy: the traditional access to the sheikh, voting by hands at the end of meetings, the election of the chief, in peace and in times of war.

Certainly Muhammad had an interest in democracy. “Government must consult with the people at every step.” He sanctified dissent when it is over errors in policy and practice: “My people will never agree on an error.”

Qatar – Riding the wave behind the scenes

It turns out that Qatar is playing a formative role all through the Arab Spring. Al Jazeerah media group is now just one of many independent media organs in the Arab world.

Who's in Charge anyways?

الذي هو في أي حال تهمة؟

Libya – Qaddafi's forces pull back

The democratic rebels have forced Qaddafi back into his Tripoli redoubt. Tripoli is cut from its thee supply lines: from Sabha and the Fezzan to the south, through the terminal and refinery at Zawiya on the western coast, and through the border coastal road with Tunisia. Note: Tripoli falls to the democratic rebels on August 22, 2011.

Unable to verify that Qaddafi is talking to the resistance, we look to the end game. Under nightly NATO bombardment, Qaddafi has been running like a rat from one private home after another. There must be many mobile teams of shooters out to get him.

Can the Mad Dog of Tripoli fight it out? Everything depends on close coordination between NATO pilots and their navigators, and Libya democratic forces on the ground. At the moment, both sides are preparing for the next step: a drive on Tripoli.

Qaddafi can't marshal and deploy armor or even artillery without bringing down fighter bombers. This is why we can predict Qaddafi will be dead within six (6) days.

This is good news for the whole world. The fears of the investors have pushed the price of gasoline up almost a dollar or 33% above its pre-war price. One must also mention the speculators and oil companies who take advantage of these fears. The end of the war in Libya means that some one million barrels a day of the finest oil on the planet, will flow into Europe.

But does not the USA deserve some of that splendid Saharan crude? Long ago the USA outlawed any importation of oil from Libya, because of terrorism. Obviously, the situation has changed: Qaddafi will be driven into exile or killed.

Qaddafi was, is, the man who spoiled the party. The middle classes all over the world had to pay ever more for their gasoline and diesel. Since 1970, Qaddafi engineered a relentless cost-hike – taking advantage of Libya's superb low-sulfur petroleum, as well as the close distance between Libya and its European customers.

At times the premiums Qaddafi added reached 400% of the original price. In recent times, I would guess the premiums have ranged from 25% to 60%. The new government will also charge premiums, but at roughly a rate one third (1/3) of Qaddafi's premiums.

The democratic rebels will not forget who helped them, so this is an excellent chance to (prepare to) purchase fresh Libyan crude. The USA should make it a policy priority to import appx. 7% of Libya's oil production.

The bulk of this oil will be shipped to Newfoundland, where three huge new refineries will crack it for New England customers. This small, original part of the USA has no oil or gas, and is politically vulnerable to gunslinger politicians from Texas and other Southern centers. Now that most of New England's electrical power is streaming down from Quebec, it is only fitting that its petroleum products keep coming down from Newfoundland.

Syria -

More oppression – another 100 or so killed this week, in Latakya, Homs and in villages and suburbs, as Mater Al Assad deploys his strong army (and paramilitary shabibha) on some 27 fronts. Bashar said on the 18^th of August: “We are ending all military operations” but of course Bashar is not exactly in command of the eight Syrian intelligence outfits, plus his army and police. And sitting with Bashar are some 20 Ba'athi 'princes and princesses.' And they don't control it. It's Mater.

Actually, one can almost double the casualties reported, just to show the numbers of Syrian officers and soldiers killed, often by their own men.

How long can this go on? The whole world is calling for Al Assad to step down. But if he did, who would keep Mater and his Alewite thugs in check?

The UN will soon hand the Case of Syria to the International Criminal Court.

Indeed, we are impressed by the activist diplomacy of the Turks, the Western Europeans and the United States. The Turks had just made a “very special peaceful embrace” of Bashar's new Syrian regime. The Europeans were taking Syria's oil surpluses. The USA supported Syria multi-ethnic and inter-denominational balance.

The UN and the Arab League have also shown new faces, willing to come together free of political posturing. The Arab League did in fact authorize NATO actions in Libya. Of course Syria is different, and only Turkey and Israel are in a position to intervene militarily.

Meanwhile, Mater and his friends and cousins will keep up the desultory bombardment of civilian housing blocks and mosques. Thousands are being imprisoned. We estimate ten a day are perishing in detention. Will the Sunni majority in the (lower ranks) army rise up against their officers? If it keeps going on, this war against the people, you will see splits in the intel services and the armed forces.

But who is willing to just watch the slaughter month after month? Unlike Libya, the Syrian civil war can continue indefinitely. So, a radical diplomatic approach is called for.

That approach is to have the Ba'athi government, at its highest levels, to step down, choosing internal or external exile. But the Muslim Brotherhood must not be allowed to take over the government. Though they are the best organized, and have long martyrial traditions, blood to avenge, the Brothers are actually a tiny minority. In Syria, most everyone is educated. So they are not about to hand the revolution over to the Islamists.

If the rebels in Turkey can line up a cabinet, then perhaps there might be one-to-one meeting, up and down the line, permitting a graceful exit, followed by genuine reconciliation. That's the only way I see to bring the Syrian atrocities to an end.

Yemen - A New Regional Configuration

President Ali Abdullah Saleh is still in hospital in Riyadh. Though he vows to return, that would likely cause civil war, a resumption of it. It looks like stasis and static in Sana'a, but people are talking. The demonstrators are split between two groups. One is the group of educated secular professionals, the other is the shabab on the street. So time is needed to talk things out.

Half of the Yemenis are age 20 or below, and we know that the human brain in adolescents is not fully developed, specifically the frontal cortex, which is required should one care to know the consequences of one's actions. In Egypt, Tunisia, Libya, Syria as well as in the Yemen, there is quiet un-published struggle underway between the youth and the elders.

Yemen features diverse cultural and economic zones. The national government can barely keep hold of Aden and the south (Himyar and the Hadramaut), while the Tihama along the Red Sea coast still functions as a port (Al Hudaydah) and cultural center (Mocha and Zabid). With the withdrawal of army, government and district police one watches as these regions revert to tribal and sectarian rule.

The USA is involved. Though condemned wherever it goes, most Arabs and Pashto recognize the legitimate right to revenge. So let us not cheer the genocidal terrorists operating now in Eastern Yemen. Let us not condemn all the various Muslim groups. Remember, Islamic law (shari'a and fiqh) is preferable to tribal codes, not just for women, but economically as well.

Unfortunately America's knowledge of Islam is so pathetic it cannot engage in any intelligent dialogue with in situ Muslim communities. Though the US is a Muslim nation, it has no academic center that can study the shari'a and fiqh without bias.

The first thing one should ask anyone calling himself a Muslim, or anyone professing to know about Islam, is: How does Muhammad's teaching at Medina differ from the religion that later evolved?

Egypt – End of Peace with Israel?

Palestinian terrorists from Gaza were able to transit the Sinai peninsula and attack Israeli tourists in Eilat, Israel. The Israelis over-reacted as usual, using aircraft to hunt down “terrorists” into Egypt, succeeding in killing three Egyptian soldiers.

The Egyptians are all indignant, withdrawing their ambassador. But it is clear that when the new government of Egypt, took down the barriers separating Egypt from Gaza, Palestinian strike teams were able to transit the Sinai and hit Eilat.

All this augurs poorly for continued peace. Popular demand and acclamation control the Egyptian military's response. Relations with Hamas are re-established.

Israel, which was witnessing its own street protests when the attack occurred, turned sour, causing an end to the demonstrations. Obviously both Israel and Egypt are responsible. But such is the spin on both sides, that negotiations are not possible. We don't foresee war. But as long as Israel insists on holding stolen land, it will be open to organized resistance, including the targeting and firing of missiles from Iran, Lebanon, Syria and perhaps someday  Egypt as well.

Iraq - Stepping back from the Abyss

The Iraqi government if paralyzed on the question of American troops in Iraq. Even the pro-Iranian Nur Al Maliki administration does not care to throw the country to the Iranian wolves. The Sunnis see the Americans as the last step before civil war - the abyss. Lewd imposters decorate the scene, and the ministers tell outside investors "this is a gold mine."

Jobs, food, fuel, housing - these are the basic wants characterizing Iraqi lives as much as the Arabs. Saddam left a country with some infrastructure. But those superhighways he built only hastened and made easy the invasion by the Americans. That battle back in 2003 cannot be discussed in the street.

Everywhere we look we see anti-Americanism, not as an attitude or position, but from an existential need, it seems. Erroneously these Muslim think America is against Islam, or supports Israel's theft of Arab land in Palestine and Syria. Terror targeting against the US has regrettably changed American's view of Islam. If ordinary Muslims are innocent, they would have successfully interrupted the work of God-less  paper-machet 'Muslims,' so they think.

The Wider Context -  Themes of Protests

There has been a rise in demonstrations, world wide. China has experienced some 12,000 protests just since 2008. There are (small) protests in Algeria at any given time. Bahrain of course is trying to heal the unfortunate rift opening up between its Sunni and Shi'a populations. Saudi Arabia is concentrating on its intelligence operatives in eastern Yemen, and we expect them to use heavy weapons, or call on the Americans to employ drones to track and kill 'the American,' (A. Awlaki) and his lieutenants.

Europe has seen an intensification of public protests, largely over austerity matters, but also pro- and anti-Muslim immigrants. Corruption is also a common theme. Also, there have been 'slut protests' by women against male abuse in public and private.

 There have been environmental protests in Brazil, Chile and in Meso-America. Mexico has become a failed state. Are Arab states 'failed?' Yes and no. Mexico has had revolutionary government since 1810, while Arab states have little experience with democracy.

Indeed leading Islamists are stepping forward to proclaim that Islam is anti-thetical to Islam. But not so. Muhammad said: "The government and the people must consult with each other at every step." But more primarily, Bedouin tribes elect their sheiyks. Muslims on all level meet often to discuss issues, and many of these meetings end with a show of hands. That's democracy.

							-by John Paul Maynard

Intensification of violence

Intensification of Violence in Syria, Yemen and Libya

Libya -

A month ago the Libyan democratic fighters opened a new front in the northwest, through the Nafusa Mtns., to Bir Ghanim. Control of that town shifted back and forth. Latest report is that NATO bombers are keeping Qaddafi's artillery and armor at bay. Possession of Bir Ghanim permits an organized drive on Zawiye, some 30 miles distant. That's Qaddafi's last petroleum terminal.

The reason we can seriously talk about a drive on Tripoli is that, thanks to NATO bombing, Qaddafi can't concentrate and if he deploys broadly, to cover his flanks, they get rolled up, clipped and hunted down like dogs. The rebels are using fast 'technicals' to continually outflank. Qaddafi can't field three separate armies.

Libya's Transitional National Council reshuffles its executive branch, a move praised immediately by the NATO countries. Now, over 30 nations recognize the TNC as the lawful government of Libya.

Syria -

Last week the world community called on the Syrian government to just stop firing at unarmed demonstrators. But once again, the Al Assad entity is using naked violence to terrorize whole cities. Fighting thus against its own people, 99% of them unarmed, the Ba'athi regime has lost its legitimacy. That's a sorrow deep felt, for we had hopes for the young Lion.

If the Sunni Muslims gain control in Syria, they will link up with the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt and elsewhere. America will lose prestige. But the Shi'a thrust through Iran, Iraq, Syria, Lebanon (Hizbullah) and Gaza (Hamas), would be thwacked on the snout.

Is this a balance we foresee? There must be a third factor. People in the Arab world blame the Americans and the Israelis for every thing. They believe their own propaganda, so just shoot themselves in their feet. What is the third force?

Well, on the one side, the broad Sunni population, led by the reformed Ikhwan, while on the other, Shi'a communities bent on retaining control. The third force is what is being phased out – secular politics: parliament, army, the executive, education, intel, et al.

Maybe the sun will come out, maybe the clouds over Cairo and Tunis and Algiers and Tripoli and Manama and the Yemen and Lebanon and Syria and Israel and Palestine, will part, so the sun can shine directly on the land. Sunlight is a third force.

Meanwhile, the Syrian army launched artillery and armor against Homs and villages around Homs, such as Saraqeb. Dayr Az Zaur in the east was also attacked. The regime says it will fight armed terrorists to the end, referring largely to soldiers and police who chose not to fire on the people, and who are now being hunted down.

Yemen -

Instability punctuated by rifle and canon fire as Yemen reverts to its regions. A revolt by the south is no new thing – the last happened in 2007 – but, with the president outside the country, his sons and nephews have a full plate just keeping control of Aden in the Himyar region, in the far south.

Meanwhile, in Sana'a, Saleh's army is fighting elements of the Al Hashid tribal confederation, led by the Al Ahmar family. All this heavy conflict alienates the street, which still is pacifist democratic. But the street is not wise or in the mood for reconciliation. It rejects the wisdom of the intellectuals and the elders, the secular socialists, and the professors. These younger radicals, armed with electronic devices, can trigger flash mobs, and they want a clean sweep: all government personnel must resign.

Originally, the Yemeni demonstration had to do just with lowering food prices and housing costs, jobs and a representational government. But as Saleh fired into his own people, demands for his ouster prove paramount.

Algeria -

Algeria stays cool, proud that it has avoided the turmoil afflicting Libya, Syria and the Yemen. Several times we have noted the original Jan.11 riots, over food. The government cut the price and pledged to build more houses and apartments.

On January 11, the Algerian demonstrators defied a police curfew, and orders to disband, and this brazen challenge to the authorities, helped trigger and effect the revolution in Tunisia.

The doctors and the teachers have been on strike. Since March 29, the doctors have been on strike, protesting random posting to the interior. The teacher unions have been fighting for full recognition of all teachers, from pre-school to professor. On Apr. 24^th, the police attack teachers demonstrating.

On June 23, after two months of talks, the Algerian government agrees to amend its own constitution, to assure individual human rights, re-focus state money to projects which help the poor, and which bring in direct representation.

Algeria may avoid another civil war, but Islamist politics are seething. The top Salafist, Abdelmalik Ramdani, made a TV appearance where he told Algerians that “democracy is not compatible with Islam.” The Christians in Algeria are also under severe discrimination, on a local level.

Algeria is still called 'a booming place' by French investors, and true, the government has tripled its supply of fresh water in just a decade. The forests in the eastern mountains will be systematically harvested, its profits shared. New industries and industry up-grades are afoot.

-John Paul Maynard

Intensification of Struggle

Egypt - For the first time in modern history, an Arab leader is being tried in his own court. Mubarak was on his back the whole time, quiet till the charges were read. He denied them, wagging his finger and as alert as ever.

Libya – Rebels beat back Qaddafi attack on Zlintan. The Libyan National Transitional Council in Benghazi is fighting both at al Brega and in Benghazi, as 5th-column Qaddafi loyalists in the Abiid brigade were rolled up on the 2^nd of August.

Syria – The al Assad regime tries to apply fear and terror to Hama residents, deploying 25 tanks, calling artillery on neighborhoods, and placing snipers on the roofs. Over 200 have been killed in Hama this past week. With little water and no electricity, cities like Hama have become humanitarian disaster zones. Meanwhile, for the first time, the UN passes a non-binding 'statement of concern.' India, South Africa, and Lebanon also resist incriminating the Syrian Ba'athi regime. Russia and China may be re-questioning their opposition because, after four months, the regime can only commit violence against its people. Assad: Time to go.

Yemen – The suspense continues but it seems unlikely that Pres. Ali Abdullah Saleh will voluntarily give up power, without guarantees of immunity. Immunity and impunity do not go together, however. Meanwhile, war breaks out in the south, and just to the north of Sana'a, where a rebellious tribe is currently fighting the army (commanded by Saleh's sons) for control over Sana'a's airport.

By JPM