Arab Revolutions: The Global Implications حلال الثورة -- الآثار العالمية

Before we begin the essay, let us list events happening just these past two days. After prayers on Friday, Islamists in Tunis marched on the office/home of acting PM Beji Caid Sebsi. They were met by the police, causing running battles with a rather small group. Yet, as elections loom on Oct.23, there is real worry that the Islamists will dominate. That will be too great a change for modern Tunisia.

Events in Egypt also augur poorly for its November elections. On Oct.9-10, Copts demonstrated in Cairo against persecution by aggressive Salafis. Some 20 were killed as Islamist thugs join the police in concerted attacks. Copts live up and down the Nile - they were the original occupants - but they've been subject to occasional persecution if not downright genocide. Note that the interim Egyptian gov. rapidly promulgated a strict law against murderous religious aggression. Note also that some Egyptian Muslims were ready to sacrifice their lives defending their Coptic brothers.

Most extremist pseudo-Muslims think Islam is incompatible with democracy. Now, as Islamists prepare to take power on all levels, thanks to democracy, they are not, in general and at root, prone to compromise over issues of symbolic significance. They want to mainline the Shari'a, but without fiqh, shari'a cannot be comprehended or applied judiciously. As one of the few non-Muslim social scientists who has read the Arab texts and studied the roots and progress of Islamic law traditions, it is easy to see where the Islamists err. Muhammad's practice at Medina was not that proffered by the religion, which grew up generations later. Muhammad favored the common man, gave to women rights to divorce, inherit, be free of abuse and slander. He had no need of a clergy

Those who loudly call themselves Muslims, who pray before each other, wear robes and long beards, who study the Qur'an even if Arabic is a mystery - these people have no right to proclaim themselves more Islamic than secular educated men and women who read books, who strive for understanding and to find just prescriptions to an array of pressing social problems.
 

Arab Revolutions: The Global Implications       

 حلال الثورة -- الآثار العالمي

The Arab protests of 2011 did not occur in a vacuum. Demonstrations in Iran in the spring and summer of 2009 set several precedents: the use of social media to organize and direct demonstrations, in Tehran; the murderous response of the regime affected observers world-wide. Then there were, all summer and autumn, the continual demonstrations in south western Algeria, centered on Tindouf, led by the Polisario, protesting the failure of Morocco to obey UN rulings about holding a referendum on independence for the Sahrawis. All through the summer and autumn news of these demonstrations reverberated with the Algerian public. There were several self-immolations. And it was in Algeria in January 8, 2011 that the protesters dared to disobey orders by the police to disband and obey curfew. In our view, that discovery, that they could disobey a wrong law, and its enforcers, was the key precursor.

But each Arab nation had its own tradition(s), various competing narratives. In Egypt, on Jan. 1, there was the dastardly firebombing of a Coptic church in Alexandria. A week later, the immolation of a fruit-seller in Tunisia, Muhammad Bouazizi. There were several immolation suicides in Algeria in the previous weeks. All these were precursors. These were the matches which lit the fires of rebellion.

But one can step back, and see underlying causes, like a deteriorating natural environment, globally. The vicious unprecedented drought affecting Russia in the summer of 2009 - the Kremlin canceled all grain exports, forcing the price of bread to climb steeply in all countries importing wheat.

Foolish policies in  the USA also weigh in - ethanol subsidies. The precipitous rise in food prices stem directly from these ethanol subsidies passed by Congress.  Too many farmers decided not to grow food but crops which can be used to make ethanol, which can be mixed with gasoline and diesel. Many millions outside America suffered - the poorest of the poor.

But remember, the discontent in the Arab world goes back some three decades. More recently, the unrest arose from the doubling of food prices in the three years 2008-2011, the lack of housing, the lack of jobs and dissatisfaction with greedy arbitrary governments. All these governments specialized by shifting the burden of taxation back upon the middle and lower classes, the so-called masses.

Of course each Arab nation has had its own internal dynamic: other factors weigh in long before. In each case, events took their own course. Every nation is different. Only Egypt, Libya and Tunisia had successful revolutions (thus far), but even these have not been consolidated. Yet progress towards democracy (or jobs) has been made in all those Arab countries where people chose to demonstrate.

Something so big as the Arab revolutions would naturally impact regionally and internationally. First, the unrest provoked unrest, from one Arab nation to another. Then there were the shock waves, emanating from Arabia via electronic media, impacting squarely on non-democratic regimes, like China, Burma and North Korea, effecting long-awaited changes in domestic politics and policy.

Turkey's modernist Islam-inspired government had carefully plotted its rise in regional influence, a veritable love-fest with Iran and Syria. But that collapsed with the outbreak of public unrest in Syria – and its vicious suppression by the Ba'thi Asad regime. Now Turkish armor and recon units are maneuvering along its border with Syria, behind which Syrian army and intel units are maneuvering so they can slaughter their own citizens.

The European Union has canceled its oil contracts with Syria. Today, sanctions have reached the Syrian National Bank, which will surely impact on the monied classes. The economic crisis will push Syria back forty years. Regrettably, the sanctions impact mostly on the middle class and the poor. We expect more and more Syrians will attempt to flee Syria. This may have a destabilizing effect on Lebanon.

Yemen has seen crippling unrest for some eight months now. The economy no longer provides enough food and fuel. Forget about the jobs – the entire country is coming apart. Yemen has some nine distinct regions, each with its own narrative and traditions. After three months of stand-off in Sana'a, unrest spread to Ta'iz and Abdan province in the extreme south. Clearly, Islamist groups, many with connections to Al Qaida, have sought to exploit the confusion.

The Saudis have been waging a low-intensity war against extremists in eastern Yemen for several decades. But the Americans became involved after repeated attempts by Al Qaida of the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) to kill American citizens. In 2010, the hunt began for Anwar Awlaki, chief of the AQAP, who is, or was, an American citizen. He was killed last week by a Hellfire missiles launched from an UAV. That attack was followed up on the 14th of Oct. when a series of UV attacks took out other leaders and bomb-makers of the AQAP.  All this was happening in Shabwa province, in  the Hadramaut. The terrorists then turned on their hosting population, blowing up the NG pipeline coming in from Gulf of Aden. A huge flare is currently illuminating the dessicated wadi and weird table scarps typical of this very remote and fascinating part of the Arab world. Those tribes likely passed intel onto the Yemeni gov., which informed the Americans. The US UAVs were probably based at Misirah Island, part of the Sultanate of Oman. Land a UAV on deck of a CV aircraft carrier is too risky.

The Americans are convinced that they can kill Al Qaida and its affiliates by assassinating its top leaders. They have been doing that in Afghanistan, Pakistan and Iraq, as well as in the Yemen. But these cryptic Islamist organs are populist in nature, so have little problems replacing leadership. There will always be Islamists blaming the West and Israel for everything, ready to martyr themselves, to win paradise, direct from God.

The US with all of its resources, just did not have enough knowledge of the language and the literatures of the people it was occupying, so even with all of its material resources, the US armed forces and intel units have only been 60% effective. US soldiers and agents on the street cannot even explain their own justifications and objectives, no less manipulate, 'guide,' another people, politically.

Some American Republicans like to say that George W. Bush triggered the Arab revolutions by invading Iraq in 2003 and calling for democracy. Our analysis, however, finds no relation, no cause and effect. The Arab revolts have their own causes and precursors, as we explained.

The Americans are fond of saying “Israel is the only democracy in the Middle East.”

It does not matter that the bedouin elect their chiefs, that Arab monarchs keep their doors open to even the lowest petitioner, that they often use 'a show of hands' in making collective decisions. It doesn't matter that Israeli democracy is only for the Jews, not for Christians, Druze or Muslims.

Israel is isolated. It is led by 'the great whiner' B. Netanyahu He of course fully believes that the Jews are God's chosen, that they can do what they want, that the Bible can be used as a blueprint for a new Israeli empire. The American Republicans generally back this racist unscientific and inhumane annexation of the West Bank of Palestine, even if Arab Christians lose everything. They are the self-acclaimed 'christian' Zionists.

Other Americans see Israel as a modern nation 'people like us,' but the right-wing Likud party is beholden to several small religious parties (eg. Shas), and these certainly do not promote a modern world view, but a narrow sectarian racist one. Yet the Americans buy in to that because they once read the Bible in Sunday school.

Such blatant grotesque betrayal of its own core ideal augurs poorly for Arab-American relations. Osama bin Laden did win in America, for now many, if not most Americans, now hate Islam, thanks again to Republican 'leaders' out to win votes by trashing Islam and the Arabs. What, are we back in the Dark Ages?

We point this pout, for there is reason to believe that US relations with Arab states has slipped even further. When in September the US vetoed a UN decision to upgrade its relations with the Palestinians, the king of Saudi Arabia announced that 'the special relationship (with the Americans) will be over.” Since the US takes nearly 25% of its crude oil from Saudi Arabia, there should be cause for concern in the United States. But no. If the Saudis cut the oil, the US will invade the kingdom. Those plans have long been on the table.

Even if the Israeli extremists succeed in driving all the Arabs out, Palestine will always remain stolen land, and so an aggravating factor, one precludes all peaceful conciliation and economic cooperation. But many American Republicans and people of Jewish ethnicity acquiesce in 'a cleansing of the land given by God to the Israelites.' How stupid and cruel can we be? How unseemly for a nation as big and as diverse as the USA, to take a narrow, ethnic-sectarian viewpoint, one supporting the gradual slow-motion genocide of the Palestinian nation.

Why cannot the law be used? Is it too discredited? Israel and Palestine were created together, in a two-state arrangement. Arab leaders outside of Palestine did not accept it, and attacked. The Jews also attacked the Arabs in the hours leading up to independence in 1948. The Palestinian people were not involved, except as target for ruthless ethnic cleansing. Yet Israel has long pursued collective punishment against them. It is not possible to live a normal, free, decent life, in the West Bank: some 500 Israeli checkpoints made any movement very difficult. Arab farmers cannot even make repairs on their own land. And of course, the Israelis super-intensive use of water for lawns and swimming pools, has already left some Palestinian villages with no good water.

The Arab Spring inspired mass demonstrations in Israel, from July into September. The protesters demanded more housing, jobs and some movement on peace. They were on the streets of Tel Aviv and Haifa for about a month, till Palestinian terrorist used the new open border with Egypt, to sneak into the Sinai, then, with help from the bedouin, to move south to Eilat, where they killed eight Israeli tourists. The IDF, trigger happy as always, stupidly killed 5 Egyptian officers. So relations with Egypt tanked, leading to the burning of the Israeli embassy in Cairo. But it also caused the closing of the demonstrations in Israel. The Arabs cannot afford to alienate liberal-thinking Israelis and Euro-American Jewry by resuming terror or by sabre-rattling.

Libya is full of surprises. Today, in Tripoli, some 20 pro-Qaddafi fighters emerged suddenly, firing in all directions. NTC democratic fighters converged from all directions. This sort of thing could have been anticipated, for it occurred in the Abu Salim section of Tripoli – long a pro-Qaddafi community of villas and palaces, as well as the site of the most infamous prison After a month of patient diplomacy, Sirte is finally falling to the NTC fighters.

Where is the old man? Then mad dog of Tripoli? As we explained months ago, he is in the south, taken care of by close Tuareg friends. They sleep in tents and move using camels. There is no way either NATO or the NTC can locate such a small party in such a vast area.

The revolution in Libya has had strong implications for some African states. Mali, Niger, Chad have all contributed mercenaries to Qaddafi. Qaddafi himself has many friends and many investments in south central Africa. Will these rich well-armed Tuareg now agitate for rebellion in their own countries? Will Mali once again be at war with itself?

The plight of the Tuareg has long been of note. Morocco, Algeria, Mauritania, Libya, Tunisia, Chad, Niger and Mali – each has its own narrative. The kidnapping of foreign tourists and aid workers has made the issue international. Again, a small group of desperate hotheads hijack a whole nation. In Libya, the NTC, taking Sabha and the Fezzan, have applied collective punishment, chasing many Tuaregs from their homes. These had been settled by Qaddafi, and actually achieved some integration with the rest of Libya. Because some Tuareg clans supported Qaddafi, all must pay.

Much of the oppression of the Tuareg stem from simply being a nomadic folk. That's a wide-spread prejudice, going back at least 10,000 years. But it is wrong, economically, culturally and politically. Only nomads can make use of the dry steppe-lands. They provide needed goods to settled communities. In general, nomadic groups preserve valuable elements of a national culture, which should be investigated, not rubbed out. The great Neolithic revolution involved animal-breeding and transhumance as much as settled communities practicing agriculture.

Of course the textbook histories point to all the problems and conflicts between nomads and farmers. Certainly, mayhem was always an option. But the view is a distortion, because the much longer periods of peace between them, is no remarked upon: it was seen as natural, even essential. The nomads provide milk, yogurt, cheese, meat, leather, and living animals to the farmers, while the farmers supplied the nomads with much-needed grains, metal utensils, weapons, etc.

Our own views of civilization need be adjusted accordingly. The civilizations following the Sumerians all featured nomads in power, for they controlled the land trade routes, just as the sea nomads controlled the sea routes. Cities are seen as a culmination of settled life, but obviously they needed the cooperation of various nomad groups to maintain routes to other cities. It may be argued that the state arose out of this weakness of cities in the face of nomadic predation. But close inspection shows that the armies themselves were nomadic, both in personnel and in technology.

The great Muslim civilizations all featured nomads coming to power. Be it Mecca and Medina in the Hijaz, the Ummayads in Damascus, the Abbasids in Baghdad, Balkh in Afghan Turkestan, the Persian empires including the Safavid, as well as the Seljukid, Osmanli and Timurid civilizations – all owe much to pastoral nomadism.

Finally, the Arab revolutions of 2010-2112 were, are, simultaneous with very severe economic stress in Europe and the USA (and elsewhere). The collapse of the housing market bubble in the US in late 2007, seems to have been caused by the sudden rise in gasoline and diesel prices in 2006-08. Energy cost was the needle which punctured the housing bubble, which in turn, exposed egregious corporate malfeasance, reinforced by unrestrained greed. The full implications of this near-collapse of western civilization have yet to be felt or seen. But that makes these factors more powerful. What we do not know will hurt us. But in the USA, politics have become so jammed up, by Republican 'leaders,' that willful ignorance wins out.

So all those hoping that the USA might represent and promote its own principles might best sober up: the Republican 'leaders' do not engage in reason. Like all ideologues, they are dead certain. No appeal to history, to the lessons of the past, is useless.; And they don't care is everybody else gets hurt.

Wealthy people and corporations in the USA do not pay taxes. Republicans are demanding that all the progress from the Renaissance through the Enlightenment up till today, be rejected: let care of the poor and the elderly and the sick and the disabled be abandoned. Of course they have no answers for creating jobs.

So revolution may be coming to the USA as well. The rich right wing did not foresee that the have-nots will take to the streets. Will American cops fire on their own people? Yes, in Texas and the south. But march leaders are savvy enough. In the USA as in Arabia, people may have to die for the law enforcement and its directors to be shamed. Kent State all over again. Cops do know that many lawyers are assisting the protesters, that unwarranted arbitrary violence and arrests will backfire.

The Arab revolutions had some affect on the Chinese government. It has opened itself to some criticism, to petitions from the discontent. But they will not tolerate mass demonstrations – they fear them – which means they will use the army to shoot the people.

Demonstrations broke out in Europe as well. Thanks again to high oil prices, the conservative British gov. cut expenses by some 30%, not hesitating to cut programs for the poor and the disabled and the students.

The economies of Mediterranean Europe are in danger of default. Since northern Europeans are loathe to bail out these fun-in-the-sun economies, Greece, Italy, Portugal and Spain, threaten the EU experiment. Or so it might seem.

October 14-16: The Occupy Wall Street movement catches on and spreads around the &US and then the world.  Many of these demonstrations were small and were not reported or picked up by the media. In Rome, black-masked anarchists hijack the protest, instigating police attacks on it. Elsewhere, it was peaceful. In New York, Mayor Bloomberg is keeping it cool. 

                                                                                                              By John Paul Maynard

The author is the moderator/instructor for the on-line discussion group on Islamic civilization, the Graduate Alumni Association, Harvard University, Cambridge, Massachusetts. To see the author's studies of Islamic land law and the genuine Islamic reform tradition, log on to: http://www.middleeastspeculum.blogspot.com.    For accurate info and analysis of the USA, its decline, log on to: http://speculumUSA.blogspot.com.