The Mullahs Weigh In الملالي في وزن

الملالي في وزن

The Mullahs Weigh In

Islam was not the cause or issue behind the Arab revolts, but, as elections approach, Islamists are aggressively seeking power. In Egypt, Libya, Bahrain, the Yemen, Syria, Jordan, Algeria, Mauritania, uneducated mullahs and imams are slowly tightening their holds over neighborhoods and villages.

Egypt – The Muslim Brotherhood is upset that Egypt's Supreme (Military) Council is giving one third of the seats in parliament, to independents. The MB had calculated that they could win almost a half of the seats, but the secular leaders of the Egyptian revolution, are not going to let that happen. Though the Egyptian MB claims to be “the only organized religious party,' actually, there exists many other religious groups, like the many sufi tariqats. The sufi moderates do not care to be absorbed and denied by the mass organ MB. After all, the MB grew out of Hasan Banna's hatred, ignorance and arrogance. To them, the only problem is the western nations. In this they deviated from the original Muslim reform tradition, initiated by Jalal ad Din Al Afghani, which saw the clergy as the main obstacle to progress.

The MB, were they to take the power, would quickly disable all the other parties as it puts through its narrow, selective interpretation of fiqh and shari'a. Are the Egyptians up for this? What if the economy contracts further? On Oct. 1, the military shura announces a change in the election law, so that supporters of Hosni Mubarak can never hold office. The MB threatened a boycott of the elections by its many members throughout Egypt.  The MB in Egypt have a bad record, and 30 years of repression, has further embittered them. We are right to assume re-polarizations, where the secular intellectuals join with former technocrats and business leaders, to prevent the psuedo-Muslims from gaining power. 

There are some spheres of social interaction in which Islamists have a role.  They should join the neighborhood Muslims and other secular leaders, in providing social services.  Just because you dress in white and pray together does not mean you can run a country or even claim knowledge of Islam. The great limit of almost all Muslim scholars is that they have not looked at the Muslim religion using the skills, techniques and sources of modern social sciences.  Islam does have a role, but the mullahs, muftis and qadis are not even able to analyze land law laid down by Muhammad at Medina, and the Qur'an. The great Muslim jurists talked specifically about waqf or dedicated land, about common land (miri) and  iqta' - land given by the emir to a specific individual;  ijra' or rented land, leased land;  dead land is barren land that no one owns but which can be revived; and finally: the simple free hold of a plot by a man or his brothers - such an arrangement goes directly against the Shari'a. The Qur'an and Muhammad wanted home ownership to be divided, that a mother and a grandmother and sister all get a tranche . 

The point is this: real Islam can be used to combat the usurping Islamists. Terrorism is condemned in the Qur'an, at every step: from the plotting, to the execution, to damnation in hell. Women are given definite rights. But Muslim education is so limited, so poor, that it rather rare to find scholars east or west, who Arabic well enough to examine the actual legal writings. Egyptians

لا يرتكبون الشر أو الأذى به باسمي. إذا قمت بذلك ، سوف أضع النفايات روحك.

Do not use my name to cause harm. If you do, I will lay waste your soul.

Libya – The Libyan democratic forces, now under command of the National Transitional Council, saw one Islamist group, assassinate its commander (M. Yunis) back in July. The Benghazi liberals arrested the killers, neutralizing the Islamist terrorists. But that's one cell amongst some 20. It was the jihadist Bilhaj who commanded the Islamist forces which broke into Qaddafi's compound. He is the leading Islamist member in the NTC.

Note that we do not call these groups Muslim. Islam mean s surrender, surrender to God, but these groups use the religion to justify their narrow, mean, violent ideology. The world is full of prayers, but prayers do little. As the scripture says: “Never use my name to cause harm. If you do, I'll lay waste to your soul.”

The self-acclaimed 'Muslim experts' tell the people that Islam is opposed to 'western' democracy. But that is wrong, inaccurate. Muhammad said “The government must consult with the people at every step.” He also called for the election of the Khalif. The first four 'rashidun' khalifs were elected by the elders of Medina. Finally, Arab nomads generally elect their chiefs – the sheikhs.

Sirte and Bani Walid remain besieged. Many civilians remain, and the NTC does not want to push them into the Qaddafi camp by attacking and killing civilians. We did see the capture of the biggest city in the south, Sabha, in the Fezzan. It is the main town for all the 20 some villages stretching to Ghat, on the southeastern Algerian border. Some three hundred miles north, also on the border with Algeria, is the ancient city of Ghadames. The town traded with Africa across the Sahara, and with the coastal Libyans to the north. On September 28, there was fighting in Ghadames. It seems that the settled folk are ethnically cleansing the native Tuaregs. Or is it pro-Qaddafi forces firing on anti-Qaddafi demonstrators?

The Tuaregs are the Berbers, longidolized by Qaddafi. (He lived in a tent). The Mad Dog of Tripoli may have been born outside Sirte, to Berber/Bedouin parents, but he returned to the remote, isolated Fezzan to go to high school. Sabha turned Qaddafi into a revolutionary, of sorts. Periodically, he tried to show solidarity with the Tuareg, but eventually came to believe they were a n untrustworthy folk to be corralled and settled, using force if necessary. So Qaddafi's reputation with the Tuaregs is equivocal.

NTC officials claimed that Qaddafi was seen in Ghat, on the border with Algeria, on or around Sept.. Regrettably, the NTC does not trust the Tuareg, seeing them as a privileged tribe. In Sabha and Awbari, and Marzuk, Tuaregs were driven from their homes, which were then burned. The Libyan Tuareg are part of a larger confederation of Berber tribes, from Algeria, Mali, Niger, who are bound to come and fight Tuareg enemies in the Libyan Fezzan. Strangely, the coastal Libyans are not admitting the nomads. But only the nomads can control the Libya's immense south.

On the 29^th of Sept., the NTC, Libya's lawful gov., spoke of inaugurating new ministries for a Libyan government., plus elections, and some basic rights. A democratic constitution will eventually be promulgated. But the immediate problem is controlling some 100 militia organs, each armed to the teeth. For example, some 48 militia groups fought in and around Tripoli.The opposition is so diverse that these fighters cannot even be put into categories. Incredibly, monarchists abound.  The Libyans did not forget the wisdom of the royal Senussi teaching brotherhood. That Sufi wisdom was very low key. It was of course the Sanusi emir who led the resistance against the Italians. It is a way, a way to hold Libya together.

Syria - The demonstrations began at the stone mosque of Dera'a al Bilad, over the detention of some teenagers accused of painting anti-government graffiti on walls. That was over six months ago. The unrest spread to Latakia (led by a Sunni cleric), to Homs, Suweida, and Deir Az Zaur in the east, on the Euphrates. Hama rose up. Again, we see peaceful protests become violent – riots, direct assaults on gov. ministries and arsenals. In Dera', rioters burned down valuable buildings. The government shot down rioters, and its own troops who refused to fire on civilians. The unrest spread, week by week, till some 2,700 Syrians had been killed, and another 20,000 missing. Now the Syrian army is attacking Rastan and Homs. They announce their own casualty figures.

The Ba'athi regime of the Al Assad brothers and their Alewite clique appears able to vanquish the 'terrorists' and 'foreign agents.' But can such conflict be sustained? Homs, Hama, Der'a, Suweida, Latakia, Rastan, Deir Az Zaur together with the villages surrounding these towns, have been repressed. For months they've been without water, electrical power, or the freedom to walk around outside. We are worried that Syria will become a humanitarian disaster area. Can the gov. even control its borders? Some small arms have been coming into Syrian over Mount Lebanon. Sunnis arming Sunnis, Shi'a arming Shi'a. No solution appears possible. How about a ceasefire?  The democratic opposition is unarmed, and do not want a big shoot out with the regime. So it is up to Bashar and Mater Al Assad The democrats will not agree to any legal, step-by-step reform process. They do not trust Bashar al Assad. Even if he and his regime agrees to step down with blanket immunity from prosecution, the revolutionaries will not talk to them, for the rebels want revenge, 'justice,'. Too much blood has been shed. But such victim hood augurs poorly for the next twelve months.

Saudi Arabia – There is a long history of royal resistance to fanatic Wahhabi Islamists. Ibn Saudi allied with them, in his bid to take over the Hashimite shrines of Mecca and Medina and create the Saudi state.. Like the Muslim Brotherhood, the Wahhabis are only interested in surface appearances: the shape and length of your beard, your clothes, being seen at prayers, the mouthing of the Qur'an, etc. This superficiality makes possible, step by step, the killing of innocents, even other Muslims. Islam has matured a bit in the Kingdom. Why? Many of the Wahhabi mullahs appointed to the big Saudi-built mosques outside of Arabia, proved downright embarrassing. Many of these clerics supported the political radicalization, the preparation of the youth for jihad, even acts of terror. They themselves demonstrate none of the self-critical logic which is the very root of Islam. They take no blame. Very, very few of those Wahhabi Hanbali clerics ever studied any social science. So what do they know?  Many propagate hatred, just hatred.

Last week the king announced that women will eventually be able to vote in municipal elections. He also overturned the sentence (10 lashes) given to a woman driver in Riyadh. No doubt leading Wahhabi clerics were miffed if not outraged. The repression of women goes directly against Muhammad's practice at Medina. For example, Islam gives property ownership not just to the men, but to all family members. Human rights advocates ask for the election of parliamentary reps. But Saudi Arabia does not even have a parliament. It is governed by the shura council appointed by the king. The campaign to elect parliamentarian representatives constitutes the leading cause for Saudi Arabia's closet opposition.

Bahrain – Twenty doctors were sentenced to prison for 5 through 15 years. The crimes relate to dissidents using the general hospital as a center for rallies and more aggressive operations, aimed at removing the government. How unfortunate that the original leaders of the secular, educated resistance got themselves usurped and hijacked by Shi'i imams and their poor, young activists. Even as they occupied Pearl Square in Manama, the demonstrators tried to differentiate themselves from the many religious and ethnic dissidents, but the moderates were infiltrated, and the revolution taken over by young agents of the clergy. The police fired on the crowd, a bad mistake, as it permitted the radical imami activists, to redefine the movement as a direct bid to overthrow the king. It was a tragic escalation, and no one can be sure who bears greater blame: the regime and its police, or the Shi'i hot heads.

With all the wounded and dead, the general hospital became a tactical center, of sorts. It was taken over for three weeks, becoming a de facto coordination center for the resistance. Hence the prosecution of some 20 personnel out of some 2,400 who work there. These 20 doctors allegedly barricaded themselves off from the rest of the hospital, turning away Sunnis injured by the rioters. Weapons were found stocked in the hospital. Many outside commentators reject this narrative. In their view, the doctors were targeted because they gave interviews to the foreign media in which they condemned the violence, the savage response of the police. Either way it augurs poorly for the future. The tragedy is this: the demonstrators did not, and will not, join the Sunnis in Bahrain's parliament. Reform has been offered, via legal means, for some ten years. But such is the Shi'i leadership that they will only settle for the removal of the government.

The Yemen – No sooner did Ali Saleh arrive in Sana'a, than he ordered his troops to open fire on opposition positions. Many unarmed demonstrators were caught in the crossfire. Part of the army follows dissident Gen. Ali Mohsen. He in turn is tied to the Hashid tribe, led by Sheikh Sadeq al Ahmar. They were the ones who almost killed Saleh some three months ago. Naturally, they are Saleh's chief target. Whether the Revolutionary Guards will do his work remains to be seen.

Yemen is coming apart, resuming a de-centralization mode characteristic of Yemen's history. Basically, the tribes control all movement. Yemen's royalists are the Zaidi Shi'a, in the mountains of the north. There, they've joined the Al Houthi tribe, preventing army occupation of Sa'ada and other towns. The entire south of the country has its own twin agenda: the army tries to exert control over installations (like the port of Aden), and roads, while Al Qaida and its affiliates infiltrate surrounding villages. The Tahima, on the Red Sea coast, is the only quiet place. The main port of Al Hudayda is functioning. Out in the east, there is an array of tribes and clans, in the Hadramaut up through Shibam and Tarim, and the wild northeast of Yemen, centered in Minwakh and Hisn al 'Qabr. Here lives Anwar al Awlaki 'the American,' al Qaida's most dangerous operative. Using drones (probably flying from Masirah Island) and jet strikes from carrier-based bombers, the US DOD and CIA hope to kill him. FLASH:  report of Awlaki being killed by a drone Hellfire, Sept.30.

Again, here is a case where a leader offers to engage in a step-by-step reform, leading to his retirement. But the opposition, led by extremist youths armed with cell phones, has not proven able to pursue such legal step-by-step democratization, even if it calls for the quick retirement of the president. The Yemeni opposition in Sana'a was originally a movement by educated secular dissidents, arising largely over the lack of water, electric power, inexpensive food and fuel, housing and jobs. But other dissidents joined in, taking control: the shebab (the youth) and tribes and labor unions and professional organs.
 

                                                                                                                  By John Paul Maynard

Change of Seasons - the Arab Autumn

تغيير الفصول -- خريف العربية

Change of Seasons: The Arab Autumn

Writing on the fall equinox, there does seem to be a turn or a change in the on-going narrative, as if a dam burst. Autumn is a time of maturation. We see in most Arab nations intense dialogue. Behind the scenes, opposing groups thrash it out: in Egypt, Tunisia, Libya, Morocco, Mauritania, Bahrain, Palestine, Jordan and Iraq - all sides are seeking effective accommodation, agreements which would allow these nations to regain profitable economies. Inside the democratic opposition are all kinds of groups – socialists, secular intellectuals, technocrats, oligopolists, professional organizations, former prisoners and mothers of the dead, various business interests (i.e. tourism), the armed forces and their officers, defecting soldiers and politicians, returning expatriates, students, pensioners, Islamists of many stripes, and, of course, the shibab – the youth on the street.

As if they planned it, some actors took the autumnal equinox as a time to act. Yemen president Ali Abdullah Saleh flew back to his country after a three-month absence for medical treatment. And as soon as  arrived home to his palace, he ordered his Revolutionary Guards to attack dissident army units in Sana'a. Unarmed protesters were caught in the cross fire, killing 25. These attacks just intensified the collective will of the protesters. Huge demonstration on the 25th.

Just five days before, the opposition staged a huge demonstration in Sana'a, which appeared to be marching on the presidential palace. This demonstration was 'secured' by dissident elements of the Yemeni armed forces led by Gen. Ali Mohsin. The Yemeni army and special forces opened fire on the crowd repeatedly, killing over 100 protesters. Now the Saleh is back, we expect negotiations to further concentrate, even though Saleh is not going to yield.

Yemen – the Yemen is a poor country, now made destitute by the political instability. The various regions – Ma'rib, Sa'ada in the north, the Tihama along the Red Sea coast, Ta'iz, Abdan in the south (Aden), the Hadramaut in the east – all are going their separate ways, power falling back onto the tribes and clans. Western powers are anxious that al Qaida does not exploit the chaos, as it has been doing in the south as well as the east. The USA has a large program underway dedicated to killing Al Qaida's leader in the Arabian peninsula, Anwar Aulaki “the American” who has tried repeatedly to kill innocent people. The tribes in the east tend to support al Qaida, largely because of Saudi pressure. They are also in opposition to the Saleh family. Note: Saleh son, Ahmed, may be acting as de facto ruler, commanding the Yemeni special forces, and army, against the brutal ambitions of the Ahmar tribe. The Houthis in the north, largely Shi'a, have also joined the opposition, providing a 'royal' prestige to the protests.

Libya - The war in Libya is not quite finished. Again on the equinox, anti-Qaddafi forces take the southern city of Sabha, in the Fezzan.  NTC democratic forces break into Sirte, on Sept.24. The rebels will rapidly seize control in the vast south, including the all-important oil fields in the Al Kufrah oasis, in the extreme southeast of Libya. It seems the Qaddafi forces refrained from sabotaging the oil wells.

That fact, if true, should alleviate some of the unseemly panic affecting the world's petroleum market. But the investors and speculators prefer the new permanent high prices for diesel and gasoline. Led by the Republicans, Congress will do nothing to help lower gasoline prices. High energy prices has ignited inflation in the USA and in Europe, two regions not all that more peaceful than the Arab nations. Both empires are threatened. He see another crippling debt-crisis by the Republican right.

Bahrain - Shi'i leaders boycott elections. Small demonstrations in Shi'i towns. It is unfortunate that the opposition got co-opted by sectarian and ethnic hotheads. The Al Khalifa family has often invited the Shi'a to participate in the political process - use elected office to win some representation. But no. These Muslims erroneously dismiss democracy. And this is sad because the educated secular people who organized and launched the (attempted) 'Pearl' revolution, have lost control.

Also on the equinox, the Palestinian authority led by Mahmud Abbas (Abu Mazen) formally requested from the UN a new enhanced status, basically as a nation. America's first Jewish president – Barack Obama – is determined to veto any such decision, even if unanimous. The Americans fail to grasp how they are being used and led along by ignorant mean biblical fundamentalists in the South, who see the Torah as a blue print for empire. But the settlements in the West Bank will always be stolen land, and hence a cause for war and terror.

Most American Jews do not want such an expanded greater Israel but, again, there are groups of rabbis and lay Jews and Christian Zionists, who are using the Republican Party to put a stop to any real negotiations involving withdrawal from the stolen land. Al Qaida tried to cause a war between Islam and America, but did not succeed until Republican blowhards, like the Perry entity, called for full prosecution of the Muslims. Now the USA finds opposition up all through the Arab world. The King of Saudi Arabia says if the US vetoes the Palestinian resolution, that will end the special relation his country has with the Americans. Oh dear, oh my, that means even higher gasoline prices?

النفاق يولد الكراهية

"Hypocrisy breeds hatred."

Iraq – Iraqis want the American occupiers out of the country, but some hesitate, aware that the civil war between Sunni and Shi'i Arabs can erupt at any time. War has been so expensive to ordinary Iraqis that Iraq's leaders must think carefully if they really want the US forces to leave. Nur al Maleki has opted to join with the Sadr entity in a bid for de facto Shi'i dominance. For obscure reasons, the two Kurdish factions side with the Shi'a and not the minority Sunni Arabs. (the Kurds have their Shi'a as well).

Jordan – The low key King, Abdallah II, started divesting monarchical powers before the Arab revolutions of 2011. Specifically, the prime minister will be elected by popular vote. Jordan is split several ways: Bedouin, Palestinain, Islamist, secular professional and government organizations, Muslims and Christians. We suspect that the opposition has been dominated by the Islamists (largely MB and Salafi who follow the crude Wahhabi interpretation), though I should hasten to add, that the 'ulema in Amman, prefer negotiations with the king, to fighting in the streets.

Syria –  was a lull in the fighting Sept.20-23. In Homs, the regime was attacking (Sept.24), trying to capture the dissident leaders and their own defecting soldiers. They had killed some 200 protesters a week for a month, till this week, when casualties fell off. The protesters have given some 2,200 killed, some four thousand missing. So regrettably, the people do not care to negotiate or go step-by-step. The Alawiis Shi'a see a direct threat to their rule and to their lives, if they ever give back power. But there might be a chance for outside negotiators, mediators, who could suggest a step-by-step program leading to a ceasefire, and eventually, election of a new government.

Under blockade, the regime will suffer but not starve. Syria still produces oil, for itself.  Much ammo has been stashed away. It also controls large farms. But the Syrian people of the cities have slipped. They often go without electrical power, and sometimes water. Food has tripled in price. So, along with Yemen, Syria is a humanitarian disaster zone.

Egypt – Popular anger targets the army and secret police. There are always some protesters in Tahrir Square (or surrounding streets), protesting the return to army rule. The coming elections will put Islamists into power. It is difficult to imagine, however, Egyptians opting for Islamist rule. The last aggressively Islamist rulers were the Shi'i Fatimids (969-1171); but Egypt's important leaders, i.e. the Ayyubids under Saladin; Muhammad Ali in the 19^th C.; even Gamal al Nasir, and Anwar Sadat fought the arrogant, ignorant, lethal Muslim Brotherhood. So that secularizing tradition will endure in Egypt. Last week's attack on the Israeli embassy threatens to so distract Egypt's  leaders and people, that reactionary 'traditionalists' can and will exploit the discontent, to win support in neighborhoods.

On Sept. 24, Field Marshall M. Hassan Tantawi 'the Sphinx' will talk for the first time ever, during the trial of Hosni Mubarak.  His testimony occurred behind closed doors.. Mubarak faces execution is they prove a link.

Saudi Arabia -  King  Abdullah bin Abdul'aziz announces that women will be able to vote in municipal elections, and run for office, Sept.25. He likely made his final decision to do this on or around the equinox.


Oman - Omani diplomats worked hard to free the two American hikers charged with espionage by Iran. The two were released on the 23rd of Sept., (the equinox).They condemn their captor for its brutality and ideology.

Turkey seized a Syrian ship full of arms and ammunition on the 22nd. of Sept. Last month, if you were listening, you would have heard Turkey's foreign minister announce the deployment of its navy into the Eastern Mediterranean. In Istanbul, Syrian dissidents continue to meet and consult, as a new type of government is hammered out.

Meanwhile, in the United States, the authorities cannot prevent a few rich men become filthy rich on the NY Mercantile Exchange in oil futures, while 200 million American become poorer.  Gasoline prices remain some 23% higher than they should be. OPEC is pumping enough oil. Such high prices for refined products is causing an acceleration of inflation. Even worse than these is the capture of the Republican party by ignorant blowhards. They are anti-science, which augurs poorly for the future. So the fall equinox signals a new round in the Republican's naked pursuit of power. Decisions made in their dark heads today will probably cause a shut down of the government in 5 days.

Also happening Sept.23-25: Vladimir Putin decides to be the president of Russia. He can serve two six-year terms, which means he will likely rule Russia through 2023. Medvedev will switch to prime minister. Most western investors have been driven off, by the corruption, by the lack of the rule of law at top, and by government taxes and harassment. One exception is Exxon Mobil which is joining the Russians in drilling for oil in the shallow Arctic waters north of the continent. The transfer to the Russians of our best drilling technology might seem justified in (eventually) providing more oil for the Americans. But that assumes that big oil companies have allegiances to their respective nations.

                                                                              -JPM

Events in Syria and Libya الأحداث في سوريا وليبيا وفلسطين والعراق

Syria – the opposition organizes a National Council

سورية -- المعارضة ينظم المجلس الوطني

Syrian infantry and tank units have been active in and around Homs, Hama, Deir Az Zair and in the suburbs of Damascus. The regime is under intense pressure to stop the killing, from the Arab League, Turkey, the EU, the USA and the UN. But the rulers of Syria see things differently. They had long been tracking dissidents, and had no experience with mass protests. In consequence they greatly over-reacted, killing hundreds.

Vengeance runs deep in these societies, but there were usually ways by which could expiate oneself, usually by paying money. Every town and village has its learned elders (ulema), ready to negotiate, reconcile. Islamic societies have long dealt with people different than themselves.

Keeping these cultural truths in mind, is the only way out of the impasse facing the Syrian people. I see no victory for either side; both have made their points. The citizens protesting are harder pressed: Syrian intel is detaining several thousands, mostly young men. The regime is also photographing protests, then using the photos to identify and prosecute protesters. Although millions work for the Syrian regime as informers, I doubt they can trace many down this way.

On the 16^th of Sept., Syrian democrats in Turkey announce the formation of a Syrian National Council. Many of its members are in Syria.

Libya – searching for the mad dog of Tripoli البحث عن الكلب المسعور طرابلس

The search for Qaddafi goes on. Readers of this report have studied the changing military situation. There exists a road along the coast, but inland, many tracks, some running parallel, others heading south into the desert. As we said, Qaddafi can escape using these roads.

Again, let us use inference to track down the Mad Dog of the Maghreb. Qaddafi was born of Bedouin parents, outside the coastal town of Sirte. He spent his high school years in Sabha, capital of the Fezzan, in the southeast of Libya, in the Sahara Desert.. Qaddafi went to high school there. In Sabha Qaddafi became a law-breaking revolutionary.

Curiously, on Sept. 14, NATO aircraft attacked Sabha for the first time, targeting radar and missile installations. Sabha is so far south that these NATO jets must be using air refueling, which means the Americans are involved.

While writing this we received a report that Libyan democratic rebels have broken in Sirte. Qaddafi's people fortified the east and southeast of their town. The rebels attacked from the west and the southwest, achieving surprise. We trust Sirte will surrender within the week, but this is the center of the Al Qaddaf tribe. Other tribes close to Qaddafi: Al Warfala, Al Migrahi

The leaders of Britain and France made personal visits to Tripoli, to show their support and discuss matters with NTC chief Mustafa Abdul Jalil and NTC prime minister Mahmoud Jibril. Everyone is searching for ways to build a new government and re-start the economy.

Some confusion attends the move south to Niger of convoys containing Qaddafi loyalists. Few newsmen even looked at their maps. There is no road going to Niger from the Fezzan: the fugitives drove from Ghat into Algeria, through Iizzili province, through the very remote village of Djennet with its air strip at Inedberried. From there they made their way along a dirt track through the Erg al Admer, to Agadez, Niger. From there some were flown to Niamey, the capital. Apparently Niger is keeping all the Qaddafi die-hards under house arrest. As for Qaddafi himself, he may be in Sabha, close to this overland escape route. He may also be in a rat hole somewhere in that navigable strip of land that runs parallel to the main coastal highway. That position would permit him to take charge of mercenaries and loyalist officers, in waging a protracted guerrilla war.

Israel/Palestine – they go together إسرائيل وفلسطين -- يذهبون معا

The US government vetoed any upgrade of status in the UN. If not, Israel would have been completely isolated. I worked in Israel, married into an Israeli family, which makes me ask: why does the USA provide cover for the annexation of the West Bank of Palestine? Even if they drive out the remaining Arabs (or take their water), that land will always remain stolen, hence a cause for war. Israel has done nothing for peace: all the peace settlements it signed at Oslo, Camp David, Rye River and with Egypt and Jordan, stipulated that Israel address the plight of Palestinian Arabs and support the creation of a Palestinian state. Israel was created by the UN (and the USA) as part of a two-state arrangement, so its legal foundation depends of recognizing a Palestinian nation.

American Republicans are generally in the camp of the Christian Zionists. They believe, like the ultra-right in Israel, that the Bible is good textbook, offering chances of expansion and dominance. It doesn't matter if innocent families are evicted from their homes, or that civilians die. Its war in Lebanon killed some 26,000 non-combatants. Its war in Gaza killed some 1,400, less that half of whom were militants.

Iraq - a wound that does not heal العراق -- جرح لا يلتئم

The third massive truck bomb exploded in Baghdad, while outside of Kerbala, some 22 Shi'a males were executed. These kind of events lead to another civil war. But most terrorists are waiting till US soldiers leave.

America – drifting off course

We noted that the arch-conservative governor of Texas Richard Perry has taken foreign policy lessons with Douglas Fife and Donald Rumsfeld: the architects of the 2003 US invasion of Iraq. That unnecessary war, plus Bush's tax cuts for the rich, sucked up America's discretionary spending. Thanks to a de-regulation of the financial industry (under R. Reagan), its massive corruption, a full $20% of America's non-land wealth went up 9in smoke. The government sunk into deep debt. It is not clear whether the nation will recover. If not, it may break up. Governor Perry is an avowed secessionist and there are active secessionist movements in some 35 states.

Why cannot the Republicans learn from men who have not made such tragic mistakes: George Schultz, Richard Lugar and John Huntsman – follow these men. Huntsman, during a recent Republican debate, said “The smart people live in Massachusetts.” No wonder this small state can regularly field both Democratic and Republican presidential candidates. And we are nothing if not international.

-John Paul Maynard Amherst, Massachusetts Sept. 16 2011

Unfinished Revolutions الثورات التي لم تكتمل

الثورات التي لم تكتمل : الولادة إلى المستقبل

Unfinished Revolutions: Giving Birth to the Future

All Arab countries have benefited from 'the Arab Spring.' Even in those countries where the revolution failed – Oman, Djibouti, the UAE and even, we hope, Bahrain – important concessions have been made, or will be made. The costs have been high, but the revolution is bearing the fruit of the future. There was no revolution in Saudi Arabia, but the king dumped a cool $1 trillion on young, poor people. Sultan Qabus quickly co-opted the young rebels in Oman by asking them to register at the Ministry of Labor and Industry, to get jobs (created by the state) or, if no job, then a stipend, plus a chance to get extra money, for opening a business. The same tactic was used to co-op the rebels in Djibouti, and also in the UAE, I suspect.

The problem in Dubai and Abu Dhabi was a group highly educated secular intellectuals, most educated in Europe and the USA, who started a protest movement back in early February 2011. They could not be bought off. There were only some two hundred of them, and they did not occupy road intersections or provoke the police. They were told certain things which led them to disband. At some point, from the highest level of the government, they were graciously accommodated. All their detailed criticisms were rigorously cataloged and presented to the leaders of the Al Khalifa and Al Makhtum clans, the UAE's ruling emirs. The UAE is flush with cash so can invest in job-creating. It is important to see exactly how they are generating jobs. The emirs have opened universities and museums and art plazas and research institutes and is almost ready to finally find jobs for their hard-working intellectuals.

Morocco and Jordan are two Arab monarchies that have moved, step by step, to effect big changes in their governments. The Arab Spring brought to a head decades-old grievances. In each case, some progress had been made before the revolutions of 2011. King Abdallah the IIth of Jordan has agreed to give more power to parliament. King Muhammad the VIth of Morocco also gave back to parliament some of his powers. These kings keep for themselves their defense and intelligence bureaucracies, and have made sure that they control the revenues collected from the people, to be invested in just the right way. (Jordan has a severe water crisis. Amman depends on bottled water trucked in.)

It is also pertinent that both kings have retained their traditional roles as 'leaders of the faithful' so can move against well-known radical Islamist organs.  Two other features Jordan and Morocco share: minority religions – Jews in Morocco (who have long had at least one seat in parliament), and the Christian Arabs in Jordan. Both still have nomads roaming around.

Both are deeply involved in crises: the enforced exodus of non-combantent Arabs from Palestine into Jordan, as a result of premeditated policies of ethnic cleansing (and theft of property). In Morocco, the whole government-led annexation of, and expansion into, the Southern Sahara has been 'victorious.' The Arab Spring began in the summer of 2010 deep in the Algerian Sahara, in the four huge refugee camps around remote Tindouf. In these four sprawling camps live (barely)  refugees from the Spanish Sahara, nomad Berber-Arabs.. All during the summer and autumn of 2010 the Polisario government led protests and demonstrations; when one camp stood down, another started its protests, so the voices of the West Saharan Berber refugees, was amplified and sustained - constant.

Not surprisingly such vocal unrest disturbed the Algerian people, who have an even longer traditions of protest. What happened, on January 11, is that a large protest in the suburbs of Algiers, refused to obey curfew – and stared down the police.

The other Arab countries had their own internal grievances, ready to explode. But when the Algerian democrats stared down the police, a new way was open - take the streets, the ministeries, et al., - and was quickly exploited by young, wired protesters in Tunisia, then Egypt, then Yemen, Libya, Bahrain, Oman, Djibouti, Jordan, Morocco, Mauritania and the UAE.

I'm sure constitutional experts from Western Europe and the United States can be of assistance to Arab rebels as they struggle to form new governments. But we must remember that the Arabs do have deep traditions of democracy. Bedouin generally elect their sheikhs, and I have been to meetings in Muslim societies where people voted with their hands. Arab sheikhs and emirs keep open their doors to common people with grievances (or capitalist opportunities). Furthermore, Islam has democratic traditions, first in its equality of believers, then in certain principles laid down by Muhammad: “government must consult with the people at every step.” and “my people will never agree on an error,” a profound statement legitimizing (intelligent) dissent. And of course the four ensuing Khalifs – Abu Bakr, Oman, Uthman and Ali – were all elected by the 'ulema, the educated elders. Though Muhammad died without preparing his patrimony (he was too modest to even imagine that he was the most powerful human who ever lived), he must have instructed the community, the 'umma, to elect its leaders. Probably because he used elections and consultations while administering Medina.

In the generations which followed, a clergy grew up, led by specialists in law, and Islam became a religion. In the early years following Muhammad's death, power passed to Damascus, where the rich Arab emirs, the Umayyads, moved to control and take the wealth. Many Muslims looked to Muhammad's own family (including Ali) to preserve Islam's core moral principles in the face of rapidly expanding commercial actors. These rich men hunted down and killed Ali and Hussein and Hasan, Muhammad's grandsons. The Middle East have never gotten over that.

The emergence of a heavily-armed Shi'a block, stretching from Iran, through southern Iraq, to Syria and Lebanon, has been rather eclipsed by events on the streets. Even Iran has advised Syria to “meet the demands of its people.” Though the government in Lebanon is currently headed by moderate Shi'a, they do not care to fight the Sunni and Christian and Druze Lebanese.

While I am writing this, there is a battle underway in Cairo, as violent mobs attack the Israeli embassy. The government, under international pressure, has been trying to disperse hundreds of Arab rebels, angry at Israel's stupid shooting to death of five Egyptian soldiers. That was in early August, after a Palestinian terror group fired at a tourist bus, killing seven Israeli non-combatants.

That incident at Eilat was, is, unfortunate, in that it greatly aggravated the people of Egypt. The Egyptian had long watch Israel's use of collective punishment, and its use of extreme violence against rather innocent Palestinian people, but here we see the same gun-happy trigger-pulling 'tactics' of the IDF. They may have some military competence, but the Israelis are as politically powerless as its backer, the USA. Lack of language skills, ignorant of Islam, the US forces in Iraq and Afghanistan were unable, even with translators, to engage in effective political dialogue with the average Arabs on the street.

Israel of course has had its own mass demonstrations. People flooded into Tel Aviv, occupying sidewalks, not road intersections. I know Israel, and many Israelis, and am not surprised at the collective shows of dissidence. Most Israelis want peace with the Arabs, but the American Republican party, egged on by Christian Zionists, evangelicals from the American south, has given the narrow right-wing government of “Bibi” "The Whiner" Nitanyahu, a carte blanche and a green light. This encouragement of the Israelis to basically take over the West Bank, is a bid to re-construct the Israeli empire. Did not God tell them to do so? No. Of course not. These fundamentalists betray the core moral principles of their own religions. That goes for the Muslim leaders as well as the Jewish and Christian political upstarts. They are obviously deluded, and they hurt millions of innocent people.

Historically, the Israelit empire lasted less than two years. Judah, Samaria and Israel were of course very different places, different cultures. Today, few Zionists talk of ruling 'from the Nile to the Euphrates' but the complete annexation of the Arab West Bank is well underway. The Jews moving into these illegal settlements include many Americans, while American taxpayers' money is used directly and indirectly to build and maintain these settlements. But even if the Jewish extremists, led by deluded fundamentalists in both Israel and America, succeed in 'cleansing' the land completely, the West Bank will always be stolen land. It is a quiet genocide. Israel has long applied collective punishment, and Palestinians are not free to do many things in their own land. For example, they cannot travel freely in their own country.

Palestine was created in 1948 alongside Israel. The two states were conceived together. Originally, the two state idea was just a concept, prompted by the collapse of the Ottoman Empire following World War One. After World War Two, the US took up the idea of a two-state solution, and the UN advanced the concept. Just before independence was declared in May, 1948, both Jewish and Arab armies fell on each other. Neither side wanted to adhere to US and UN law. Each side forfeited its own legal basis, by denying the other. The two always went together.

This week the UN will be deciding whether Palestine might be admitted as a country into the UN, a move long opposed by Israel and the USA. But if Israel is to be a legal enterprise, free of ethnic-sectarian genocide, then, as I explained, a free country called Palestine must come into being.

Right-wing American political players are determined to stop any such freedom for the Palestinian Arabs. Why? Because they are Muslims, I guess. Also: the rich spit at the poor. Also: a casual lack of law, a disregard of fundamental legal decisions by the world. That world was originally led by the USA, but no longer. True, America has gained some prestige for its armed support of the Libyan rebels, but the US government under G.W. Bush foolishly and tragically invaded Iraq in 2003. Iraq remains a bleeding wound that does not heal.

Richard Perle, Douglas Fythe, Eliot Abrams and other Jewish US security officials have been rightly cited as the originators and executors of the US invasion of Iraq - they had been talking about it for a decade - but George W. Bush, who feels Iraq was a terrible but blameless blunder, says all responsibility for the tragedy was with him. Yet, Mr. Bush is no intellectual, and was lured into a most unholy alliance with crazed violent aggressive Zionists, both Jewish and Christian, to "thwack the serpent on the nose."

Israel is one quarter Arab. It is a Muslim as well as a Jewish country. Israel's courts understand this: they routinely used the Shari'a and fiqh to adjudicate disputes and to manage Muslim waqf properties. Most Israeli judges speak Arabic, and there are elements of the judiciary which are the impartiality of the law. Israel's supreme court is the most reliable (and just) organ in the Israeli government.

The Arabs of course have played right into the right-wing Israeli bid to annex (most of) the West Bank, teaching and enforcing inveterate hatred against all Jews. Obviously this too is unjust – and counter-productive. Furthermore, the mass indoctrination of children into hating all Jews (and Americans) makes it un likely that these populations will be restored to each other. There is a huge positive synergy potential between them.

Given the American government's (tacit) support for Israel expansion beyond its lawful borders, augurs poorly for the future. The Holy Land will be opened to the Western Crusaders. Israel will, should, militarily dominate the Middle East. Many American leaders believe in that. The evangelical imperialists really do believe that the End of Days is near, and that the final showdown will be in Israel, at Meggido. Not surprisingly, the Israeli government closely monitors Americans visiting Meggido, and not surprisingly, the the clinical Israelis view American evangelicals as crazy and potentially drastically dangerous.  The idea of the Apocalypse is, of course, an Iranian idea, from the Zoroastrians, who believed in a final showdown between light and dark. The Jews took it (and much more) from the Persians when they were exiled to Babylon in the 6th C. BC.

But who is the light and who is the dark? I have had to counsel the US government (especially the Defense Dept.) not to be so infiltrated and dominated and compromised by Iranian ideas. The Republicans, the loud, aggressive ones, don't like science, but such adherents to Iranian ideas also betrays their own Biblical principles. They don't know their own traditions. Nor do the Muslims.

Of course the USA is great big nation, ethnically diverse, and democratic, with a secular government (thank God). It should never choose sides based on ethnic/sectarian favoritism. If the USA were a great nation, it would not take sides.

Arab regimes have long used the Arab-Israeli dispute to distract their citizens (blaming the 'other') and prevent them from moving for reforms at home. Now the Arab Spring – revolution – has shown the Arab people to be temporarily un-distracted by Israel. So it is worrisome, I suppose, that the Arab dissidents are fighting their own police at the Israeli embassy in Cairo, as I write. Yet the Mubarrack policy of joining with Israel (and America) to wall off (imprison) the Palestinians in Gaza, was not just either.

An outside (or inside) observer might think it implausible that any Palestinian state will emerge in the near future. The ultra-right crypto-fascists are rich and determined. The Bible tells them to fight, just like they fought 3,000 years ago.

Actually the Hebrew Bible (also revered by the Arabs) is against any such thing: “If you use my name to cause harm, I will lay waste your soul.” (Ex.20:7) Curiously, the Qur'an is a more pro-Jewish text than the Hebrew Bible. About 40% of the Qur'an recounts Biblical stories – but the characters are white-washed. Abraham is not held account for driving his concubine into the desert with his own son, then marrying his barren half-sister Sarah. Moses was a murderer, and not a Hebrew at all. King David murdered one of his devoted officers, Absalom, in order to marry his wife, Tamar. The prophets of course were scathing in their criticisms of the Israeli imperial pretensions - the influence of loud ignorant fundamentalists who were used by war lords and even the king.

But the way is open: the new Palestinian nation will simply have a Jewish minority, just as Israel has a Muslim minority. The Jewish settlers are all extremists – using the Bible (and guns) to annex much of Arab Palestine. They will not want to be part of Arab Palestine, even though they are (they live there). Will either the Israeli or the American government have the moral fibre to enforce a two-state solution? Not if the willfully ignorant Republican Zionists in the US government have their way.

I lived in Palestine and in Israel, and know that Arabs and Jews can get along splendidly if they were not so crassly influenced by their mean leaders. So, as long as America betrays its own core code of equality before the law, the whole Israeli-Arab dispute will continue to be exploited by religious hotheads on all three sides. And hypocrisy breeds anger.

As I finish, I hear on the radio that the big fight at the Israeli embassy in Cairo has become more violent, as Egyptian army commandos fire at the protesters. Thousands of enraged Egyptian urban young males are trying to break into the vault, the inner sanctum. Will the army shoot them dead? The revolution in Egypt is hardly finished.
 

                                                  -John Paul Maynard, Amherst, Massachusetts

for papers on Islamic land law, reform in Islam, an analysis of economic change in Egypt, log onto

www.middleeastspeculum.blogspot.com.

The author is the moderator for the graduate alumni association's on line discussion group on Islamic civilization.  His e mail address: johnpaulmaynard@post.harvard.edu.

All Arab Nations Benefit from Revolution

وقد استفادت جميع الدول العربية من الثورة.
Note: Speculum posts each Friday night (EST) following prayers and the release of casualty numbers from the hospitals. To reference our deeper studies of Islam and the Islamic world, log on to http://www.middleeastspeculum.blogspot.com.

Even where the revolution failed, important concessions have been granted. The protesters in Jordan, Morocco and the UAE are not calling for the ouster of their kings. In Bahrain, the dissidents are welcomed to spell out their (legitimate) grievances, to parliament. In Oman and Djibouti, the governments have rapidly responded to the protest by creating hundreds of jobs.

Libya Wins Its Independence -

Readers of this publication are familiar with the topographic details of the war in Libya, so it is not too surprising to learn that NATO planned the stunning rebel victory over the heavily armed forces of Mu'ammar Qaddafi. Just what 'planned' means is a point in question. But as we pointed out in earlier postings, Qaddafi's forces could not cover their flanks, or even control urban territory.

The rebel's decision to activate another front in the west, through the Nafusa Mountains, was the decisive move, in our view. NATO must have convinced the Tunisians to open a corridor from Ramala to Nalut.

On Sept. 1 representatives from some fifty nations met in Paris with reps from the NTC (Libya's lawful government). Libya deserves and will receive, not so much assistance, as access to its oil profits stashed overseas (over $100 billion).

By Friday, prayers and the beginning of the Eid al Fitr, Qaddafi's forces are found in Sirte and Sabha. We have often mentioned both places. They are the home turf of Qaddafi. It is was in Sabha, in the Fezzan, that Qaddafi went to high school. There, he learned how to scheme and plot revolution. After, he lived for months with the Tuareg, and traveled in his own mobile caravan deep in the Sahara.

The National Transitional Council (NTC), Libya's legitimate government, has given the defenders of Sirte and Sabha a week before they would attack. Meanwhile, NATO jets have conducted close to three hundred sorties in and around Sirte, breaking up any fixed defenses Qaddafi's troops can put up.

But Sabha is another situation, remote and beyond NATO air. Actually, US jets can re-fuel over the Sahara and smash the defenses, but this would be a special operation. Sources from the rebl command asserted Thursday Sept.1, that Mu'ammar Qadafi was in the south, on his way to Niger. We've been saying the same thing: that Qaddafi can navigate the Sahara in a small caravan, expecting to meet friends along the way. Qaddafi need not worry in Niger, Zimbabwe, and most southern African nations.

Meanwhile, prisons are still being found, mass graves. Some 50,000 Libyans are missing. One can be sure that investigations are going forward. There is a hard edge to the rebels: too much blood spilled. Qaddafi's rule was 'a boring nightmare.'

The West is fretting that Islamists are inside the NTC. The jihadi Abdul Hakim Belhaj was invited to attend some high level meetings. Belhaj once had links with Al Qaida, the Taliban and with the murderous Egyptian group Al Jihad. Even worse, the NTC commander Abdel Fattah Younis was murdered by the Libyan Islamic Fighting Group. That organization has just been 'de-mobilized.' The new name is the 'Islamic Movement for Change (IMC).'

These Libyan Islamists were well organized. They often stormed impossible targets, like the Bab al Azziyah complex south of Tripoli, Qaddafi's HQ. But we should bear in mind that these Islamist leaders, like Belhaj, are aging veterans, tired of war. Times have certainly changed. Previously, all problems were dropped on America, Israel and the West. But today, the US is greatly praised for its coordination of the entire NATO air war. Press a little further and the Arabs will find that the USA does not back but condemns Jewish settlement in the West Bank of Palestine.

Syria – low intensity conflict for years?

The prognosis is not good. There can be no resolution. Syria's low intensity civil war can go on for years. This is intolerable – not what Syria deserves. Lack of electricity and war, food and fuel, combined with incessant fear, will just wear the people down.

Aleppo and Damascus see few demonstrations, which means the Ba'athi regime can turn its attentions elsewhere. At the moment, the regime is conducting a vicious police action in Hama, in an effort to catch the defecting district attorney, Adnan Bukar. On Friday the 24th there was a huge demonstration in Homs. The police shot dead some 30 and detained some 200. Many of these will not be seen alive again. Some were from Deir Az Zaur, in the east.

Will guns find their way into people's hands? The army cannot seal all the borders. But a civil war would be tragic. It would last for years and kill tens of thousands.

A Syrian colleague in NYC tells me the Syrian Ba'athi regime under Bashar Al Assad, is not that strong. “It will splinter.” The majority of army soldiers are Sunni Muslims, and their Alewite commanders don't hesitate to use lethal force to keep the army as a tool of repression. That's the only tool they have to keep the troops in line.

The whole world condemns the Syrian regime for its attacks on its innocent civilians. Even Iran has protested. “We call on Syria to meet the demands of its people” said a spokesman in Tehran. Syria is isolated internationally.

On Saturday Sept. 3 we  see further meetings between representatives of the Syrian people and the international community. If they are not planning for war, they must be planning a diplomatic overture. Even the regime has limits. The resistance should consider government proposals for a multi-party system. There has to be flexibility on both side for there to be an agreement, a reconciliation.

Iraq – discontent and violence

On Sept. 1, a vicious battle erupted inside the Ministry of the Interior, in Baghdad. Some 20 are killed as government soldiers fought the terrorists for some six hours. For two months, there has been a plan of assassinations of officials. The leaders in this mayhem are those calling themselves 'the Islamic State of Iraq.' They are closely associated, or were, with Al Qaida in Iraq. They are Sunni Muslims who don't hesitate to slaughter Shi'a, Christians, Yazidis and Jews.

Opposed are the large numbers of Shi'a Muslims from southern Iraq. Maliki is tied to the radical M. Sadr who is tied to Iran. Indeed, it is common knowledge in Iraq that foreign intelligence organs are stirring up the embers. US forces (some 50,000) will be gone before the end of the year.

Iraqis ask only for food, water, electricity, garbage collection and peace. Government services are lagging or non-existent, not for lack of money, but because of a shortage of competent administrators. Time and again, new employees embezzle money or just disappear for long periods. They have no experience as to what an administration is for. Many cannot write well, or do math.

Like Syria, we see a long low-intensity war in Iraq. The police are definitely improving: for eight years they seen their own ranks infiltrated by ethnic sectarian extremists. Now they are better at stopping infiltration. Still, this week it was announced that some 40 al Qaida prisoners escaped from a prison in Mosul. They dug a tunnel. The government has arrested the entire prison staff. Most of the escapees were captured during a curfew.

Yemen – Danger from Violence Recedes

With president Ali Saleh in hospital in Riyadh, the political situation in Sana'a is easing. Meanwhile, shortages of water, electricity and the high price of food, with little chance of profitable work, casts Yemen as a country in need of humanitarian relief.

On July 3, three soldiers were killed in the south, Aden, when a suicide bomber detonated a bomb. The country may be breaking apart, but people are confident that they can bring democracy to the country. Yemen is made for democracy – it is a federation of small states, several of which were once veritable empires. All the various actors: should we name them?

In Sana'a, secular, educated Yemenis started the protest six months ago. They worked as a team with the shibab, the youth in the streets. These young men used electronic media to call and coordinate protests. But they do not recognize the intellectuals, the professionals, still less government.

Tribes control movement around the country. The Revolutionary Guard under Saleh's sons is strong enough to fight tribal insurgents. But it must also contend with secessionists in the south (in Abyar and the Hadramaut). Al Qaida is a third force that needs be watched. They occupy eastern Yemen, under tribal protection, of course.

Sudan: Fighting in Kordufan -

With the division of Sudan in two, one would expect the people to get with it. But now there is war in southern Kordufan (located between Darfur and the Nile). Black Muslims, speaking their own language (Kordufan), are under aerial and ground attack. After the inauguration of South Sudan, other minorities want independence. But the attacks of Omar Al Bashir's Islamic Sudan has caused some ten thousand Kordufan people to leave their homes. There are nearly a million refugees, in Somalia, Ethiopia, Kenya, and South Sudan. The international community wants to help, but not all honor their pledges. People (mainly children) are dying of malnutrition and lack of clean water.

Algeria admits Qaddafi family -

Sometimes one can look at Algeria and see no indication of change. It seems that the country has avoided the Arab Spring. At other times, one sees that change has been proceeding on its course. The Algerian people did force President Boutiflika to lift emergency rule – martial law.

On July 31 Algeria admitted the wife and son and grandchildren. Hospitality dictates Algeria receive them. There's no love lost on Qaddafi himself.

Algeria is not a poor country. Over $160 billion of assets are stashed in the West. Much of this money had been ear-marked for various projects, but it just sits there.

Gone is the golden age of Algerian diplomacy, featuring Lakhmar Brahimi and others. Algeria is tired of war. Police do not need emergency powers to break up demonstrations anyways. The people are resigned to their fates: But they are mystified as to where all the oil money went.

Algeria's strong military and police precludes a campaign of protests. The nation's leadership is a bunch of old men – remnants of the old power structure.

Coastal Algerians were secularized under the French. In the interior, Islam rules. Elections for office are very difficult because of this gaping divide: one side boycotts the whole thing. So democracy is not tenable.

Can anything sew up the divide in Algeria's fabric? The army. Trade. Jobs.

Four features offers hope for the future: a dramatic rise in fresh water, thanks to a new desalination plant running of Algerian NG. Secondly, Algeria has a courageous and rather independent press. Thirdly, multiparty democracy is in place; Fourth, Algeria has so much money from oil that it cannot even invest it domestically.

Israel - mass demonstrations on July 3rd. We include Israel here because it contains many Arabs and is an Islamic country (also). The Israeli protesters want a more equitable distribution of wealth, lower taxes, lower food prices, low-income and single housing and more jobs.

                                                                                         -by John Paul Maynard