Arab Revolutions - Coherence in Chaos

The Arab Democratic Revolts of 2011 – Coherence in Chaos

There occur days when multiple demonstrations break out simultaneously, suggesting coordination. There were huge demonstrations in Algeria and Libya on Feb. 17, and we see simultaneous manifestations (March 25th 2011) today in Jordan and Syria. Is this the Muslim Brotherhood coordinating things? Probably yes and no. As we will see, the MB is does not constitute any majority anywhere.

An Arab analyst in Dubai claims that “Ninety nine per cent of what the various protests demand is identical.” Lack of jobs, the high price of food, not enough housing for families or singles, and ever-present long-lasting martial law – these were and are the issues shared by all Arab uprisings.

One might call the recent demonstrations at the Ishma'ili Meydan (Tahrir Square), 'the fourth mass food riot in Cairo since 1972.' Going back thirty years, noting the introduction of structural adjustment, one would likely find that these earlier mass manifestations were also about jobs and housing, like this one.

The point is that the 'Washington consensus' is still wrecking economies, even though it is dead since 2008. The Seoul Model is also state-heavy, industrial, high-energy consumer driven. Over the next months, we will be exploring alternative economic systems, most not driven by consumerism.

Since 1967 SPECULUM has advocated careful study of the life-ways and knowledge of indigenous people. That includes the many millions of Arab bedouin, who somehow survive in the Sinai desert, the Negev desert, and the Sahara. I should quickly add that there still remain Arab nomads in Afghanistan (or did when I worked there in 1972-73).

Protecting minority populations in the Muslim world is a top priority. Like the other religions, Islam gets dumbed down real bad. Medieval Muslim scholarship has wonderful traditions, but today, knowledge of Islam demands the most modern of social sciences: history, pre-history, pre-Islamic literature, the archaeology of Arabia, economic history (trade routes, land and sea), ceramic traditions, comparative religions, Judaism, Zoroastrianism, 7th-C. centers of culture like Hira, Iraq, capital of the Lakhmids (where Muhammad likely studied).

SPECULUM's conclusion after a half-century of study and contemplation, is identical to that reached by Sayyid Jalal ad-Din Al Afghani, who said: “I traveled in the East and saw many Muslims but no Islam. I traveled in the West and saw no Muslims but found Islam.”

Muhammad Qurayshi's teaching in Medina 622-30, the 'amal, is of course that proffered by the religion. I can't think of anywhere, not even in Saudi Arabia or Afghanistan, where Muhammad's old laws are enforced. For example, men own the houses, which is definitely not Islamic. Actually what remains of genuine Islamic civilization, is scanty. The genuine reform tradition arising from Sayyid al Afghani in the late 19th C., focuses on the clergy as the obstacle, not foreign affairs and influences. In 1928-29, the elementary school teacher and wanna-be from Isma'iliya, successfully reversed that tradition, blaming the West and Israel, rejecting everything western as dangerous, and licensed themselves to assassinate government and cultural leaders. The paradox is that Al Afghani lived and worked in countries under European occupation (Iran, India, Egypt), while the Muslim Brotherhood reside(d) in independent nations, like Egypt (since 1917), Jordan, Syria, Libya, Algeria, Morocco, and Lebanon.

Is there rehabilitation for the Muslim Brotherhood? Their leaders must be enjoined to re-write their charter to bring the organization into line with the authentic Islamic reform tradition.

Yes, Islamists have jumped aboard the Arab revolts. They are out-numbered by secular and/or other religious groups. They have a role in serving the people on the most local level. But shou8ld not assume leadership positions inside governments unless they split out their perverse innovation (that everything western is un-Islamic, that non-Muslims, Shi'a and secular Muslims can be killed with impunity, et al.). The MB is strongest in Jordan (but married to 14 trade unions).

Western Sahara -

Did the Arab revolts begin in the Western Sahara? The Sahrawi parties have been protesting more or less continuously since October, 2010. Careful study of cell phone traffic and Google Trends (using Arabic search terms) should eventually show if the Sahrawi protests prompted new waves of protests in Algeria, in early January, which seem to have triggered the uprising in Tunisia.

Morocco -

Protests began Jan. 30,2011, in Tangier, where four people burned themselves.
The issue was, is, political reform, reducing some of the powers enjoyed by the king. On Feb.20, some 20,000 protested in Rabat. On Feb. 26, a thousand demonstrated in Rabat. The protesters are mostly labor unions, youth organs and human rights organs. Flash to one month later: On March 20, 20,000 are organized by Islamists, across 60 Moroccan cities.

Algeria -

Nineteen years of emergency law ended Feb. 22, 2011. That was the outcome of the Jan. 4-5 demonstrations, which spread from Algiers to Oran and Kabyle. Everyday there ios a demonstration somewhere in the country, or so it seems.

Tunisia -

Players jockey behind the scenes, since the Jan. 11 revolt, and the resignation of PM Ghannouch.

Libya -

As we write, Qaddafi security forces are leaving Ad Adjabiya, just south of Benghazi We expect the democratic forces to move on Sirt, and then Tripoli, where they'll have to fight for a few days.

The Feb. 17th Revolt started when protesters broke into an unfinished housing project. Another factor was the arrest of family members of those executed in the 1996 massacre, at Abu Salem prison.

On March 25th, the UN demands access to war-zone cities, to help the wounded.

Egypt -

Behind the scenes, parties are jockeying for influence. Who is sleeping with whom in Cairo is not visible. So we use intuition. The two established parties, the Muslim Brotherhood and the National Democratic Party, have a real advantage in pushing ahead elections in just over 4 months. Other parties will not be given sufficient time to evolve and work out policies as well as set up agents in the streets.

On the 25th of March, the interim gov. under Marshall Tantawi makes it illegal to hold demonstrations, like those seen in Tahrir Square. March 9th has been revealed as a potent cause behind the revolution, when many detained protesters, were molested. The torture set it off. Many were arrested, and given long prison terms, in kangaroo courts.

The May 1989 riots led to the gov. legalizing select parties, and it is these which remain today potent forces behind the scenes. Parties such as the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP), Young Egypt Party (YEP), and the Green Party.

MEET THE PLAYERS: Since 1989 we've seen the approval of the Al Ghad party under Ayman Nur, Mr. Mubarak's contended in the 2005 elections. Ghad is smart, progressive, secular - “Tomorrow”

M. Al Baradei has joined with the Brothers, as a marriage of convenience. The MB will gain legitimacy while Al Baradei gains street organization and enforcement. His big mistake was not to de-fang the Brothers. How can they be trusted otherwise? Their charter calls for killing Shi'a Muslims, secular Muslims and non-Muslims. To them, everything modern or western is inappropriate for Muslims.

Wael Ghonim, a Google employee, claims some credit for the Isma'ili Meydan (Tahrir Sq.) protests, using his “We are all Khaled Said” Facebook page.

Ahmed Zewail, a 1999 Nobel Prize winner, has returned to Egypt where he linked up with the April 6 Youth Movement, a group of activists using social media to mobilize and steer the protests. Like Al Baradei, Zewail is seeking control of the street.

Lt. Gen. Sami Hafez Enan is working behind the scenes, still under the command of Hasan Tantawi. The Field Marshall has been a veritable Sphinx, refusing to talk to the population. The protesters may go soft on the military because in times of storms an anchor is needed.

Amr Musa (correct spelling) has played an oversized role, running ther Arab League and bring them over to the Arab democrats. That's amazing in itself, but he went further and authorized the UN to license No Fly Zones 'plus' (hitting ground targets), on March 12th. He appeared to vacillate two days later, when French, British and American aircraft and missiles hit the Libyan air defenses.

Finally there is M. Badie, elected chief of the Muslim Brotherhood, now elbowing his way into 'decisive committees.' How possibly can he be trusted if he does not re-write the MB charter, spitting out its dumbed-down perverse ideology. He probably does not even know the 19th. C. writings of those authentic reformers (al Afghan, M. Abdu and R. Rida.)

On March 24th, Egyptian gov. hosts first Israeli diplomat. I'm sure Badie didn't like that. There's one type of MB-influenced Arab nationalist who still thinks Israel is the Arab's greatest problem. Assuredly the Likud regime in Jerusalem deserves 'eternal opprobrium,' but Arabs would be more effective (and honest) if focused on their own problems, like the abuse of women, an inability of the gov. to construct enough flats, due to corruption, and the steady rise in food and fuel prices.

Sudan -

The protests in Khartoum, Jan. 30-31, were hit by police with excessive force. Twenty remain missing, after arrest. Other hot spots include Abbiye, the oil-rich dusty town right on the border between North and South Sudan. Darfur is rather free of violence, thanks to Qaddafi's influence, as well as the emigration of a good half the pop.

Djibouti -

Demonstrations began in Djibouti City Feb. 3, 2011 with just some 300 protesters, then escalated so that, during the bigger protests Feb.19-24: larger demonstrations calling for the resignation of President Ismail Omar Guellah. Many opposition leaders have been arrested.

Yemen -

March 25th protests demand Saleh's resignation, and he agrees, except he wants to hand over the gov. to 'capable hands.' Ali Abdullah Saleh's position and influence has been fraying since 2009. The demonstrations began very small, in mid-January, 2011, following Friday prayers. March 17, 52 protesters were shot to death, in a coordinated sniper attack, during a peaceful protest. Pres. Saleh in response said: “I have big regrets.” Efforts are underway to find the perpetrators.

On the 27th of Jan., over 16,000 were demonstrating in Sana'a. Of course there were pro-Saleh demonstrations as well, and the two fought, though now, in late March, the riot police moves between them. The demonstrations keep getting louder and larger, hoping to drive Ali Abdullah Saleh from power, which he has held since before 1990 (when Yemen was united). He was head of North Yemen before then, and worked directly with the Zaydi imams and the royalists. Now the Yemeni Shi'i royals are hoping to get back into leadership positions. Saleh's own tribe has reportedly turned against him. His PM M. Qirte, says Saleh will resign in just weeks.

Yemen consists of rather distinct parts, each drawing from different cultural traditions: the North (royalist Zaydi Shi'a); the Hadramaut (SE), with its Indian Ocean connections; the south – Aden. The Tihama (west coast), and the East, Shibam and the mountains to the north, home of Al Qaideh of the Arabia Peninsula.

We suspect Saleh will step down by mid-April. Two figures to watch: Maj. Gen. Abd al Rab Mansour al Hadi, VP since 1994; and Ali M. Mujawwar, PM since 2007.

Saudi Arabia -

The Shi'a live in the east, just where the petroleum refineries and terminals are located. The Saudi king has always met with the Shi'a head ayatollah at least once a year. One might think the king might prefer him to the Wahhabis. Certainly the royal family has been struggling with the Wahhabis all along.

Demonstrations began in Jeddah in late Jan. when protesters assembled to push for infrastructure improvements, specifically the repair of roads after some flooding. On the 5th of Feb., some 40 women demonstrated in Riyadh, calling not for freedoms or change in gov., but release of protesters detained by police.

The gov. would have done itself a favor if they had released innocents like Faisel Ahmad Abdul-Ahad (Abdul Ahadwas). His death in detention triggered the March 11th 'Day of Rage,' in which two protesters were killed. A week of protests prompt King Abdallah Abdul Aziz to put up some $37 billion for all sorts of goodies.

This probably will not work. What will work is some protection and chances for Shi'a to move into office management positions. Demonstrations have been held in Qatif, Riyadh, Hofuf, Damman and Jeddah.

Syria -

Today March 25th, some 22 were gunned down by security police in Dera'a. Bashir Al Asad meets with his political advisors, and hints publicly of a return to representative government, with licensed political parties. Demonstrations in Syria began in the far south, in Dera'a, on the 26th of Jan. Today, 25th March, 2011, police and protesters clash yet again after a violent week of protests. “We will sacrifice our lives gladly to make this happen.” said one activist. Demonstrations spread to Damascus, Hama, Aleppo, and Banyas on the coast. The Syrian gov. of Bashir al Assad unleashed his official killers on Mar. 17 at Dira'a on innocent protesters calling for the dissolution of the state security apparatus. On March 19th, another 6 were killed in Damascus. Then over 20 protesters were killed in Dira'a, in the south, on 24 March. Such violence then galvanized even more protesters on the 25th, leading Bashir to make more than material concessions. We are amazed to think of democracy coming to Syria.

Lebanon -

Recent demonstrations are calling for the disarmament of Hizbullah. Also curious is that the new Hizbullah-installed president, vocally called for air strikes against Qaddafi's troops in Libya. Earlier demonstrations called for a change in 'confessionalism' – the automatic apportioning of jobs by sect and ethnicity. All those secular young people in Lebanon, will not fold to Hizbullah.

Jordan -

On March 25th, a large demonstration was held in front of the Interior Ministry, in Amman. Stones were thrown. King Abdullah II actually hopes the protesters will push through a new constitutional monarchy, as well as a democratic parliament with teeth.
Protests erupted on Jan. 14th, in Amman, Ma'an, Al Karak, Salt, Irbid and others. They appear coordinated, planned, perhaps by the Muslim Brotherhood. Yet the front of the protest, consisted of trade unions, students, and leftists. The MB is working with some 14 trade unions. Demands include resignation of PM Samir Rifa'i, who some protesters call a 'cowards.'

There was held a protest in Amman on Jan. 21, featuring 5,000. On Feb. 1, King Abdullah dismisses his government. But the protesters saw that as a weakness, so held a huge demonstration on the 25th of Feb., over 10,000, demanding a right to vote, to have representatives, to dissolve parliament. Why parliament? The protesters see it as corrupt and pro-gov.

A recent protest sign read in English: “Jordan is not only for the rich. Bread is a red line. Beware of our starvation and fury.”

Palestine -

Demonstrations began small, in Ramallah, in late Jan., then, on Valentine's Day (Feb. 14th), PA PM Salam Fayyad resigns. Leaked memos from Wikiliks and Al Jazeera really did bring down the PA elders, exposing their concessions to the Israelis. That, and short-term-brutality by the IDF, may have triggered the upturn in war: Hamas launches some 90 rockets from Gaza, killing no one. Then smaller terror organs copy the tactic, firing missiles and prompting IDF retaliation. So now Hamas is patrolling Gaza's borders.

The call in late March has been for re-unification of all Palestinians, Fatah, PA, Hamas/MB, Druze. The re-unifiers are out-flanking both the Palestinian Authority and Hamas. We expect popular protests for democratic choice. We wonder if these new democrats will demand 'the destruction of the Zionist state,' when their own prosperity and freedom depends on coming to terms with the Jews.

Bahrain -

On March 25, demonstrations in Manama were broken up by the police. A series of running battles ensued. We are awaiting casualty figures. The Bahrain protesters will tell you with a straight face that the Bahraini uprising is not sectarian – and the great majority are not religious – but in the back of the crowd, young agents of the imam are at work. Bahraini authorities really did intercept an Iranian intel squad delivering radios using speedboats.

The Bahraini revolt lost out when, after enduring violence, the protesters escalated their demands from the institution of a constitutional monarchy, to the removal of the Al Khalifa royal family altogether. The Shi'a claim to be the indigenous people on the island. Some may be, but the nomadic Al Khalifa brought benefits (control and distribution of fresh water, and investments in long-distant trade and boat building.

King Hamad Khalifa is amongst the most liberal of emirs. He issued the protesters a counter-demands” “Let us talk about your complaints in parliament.” The protesters did not think parliament an acceptable venue. The upper house (senate) is composed largely of Al Khalifa supporters, friends, protegees, offiers and employees. The lower house is the place for debate. But even the Shi'i reps in the house, are under attack and may not run again.

Kuwait -

Dozens were arrested Feb. 19th, when stateless Arab bedouin protested outside Kuwait City. Some 120,000 bedouin come in and out of Kuwait, but have no status. The Sabah family comes from the bedouin, and they gained ascendency by controlling Kuwait's only three fresh water wells, which are all in the west.

Kuwait, like Saudi Arabia, has been slow with promised reforms. The first woman entered Kuwait's parliament in 1974. Not much has changed. The MB is active in Kuwait. Caught in the middle are over a million foreigners, most laborers and home maids.

The emir promises free food and a $4,000 bonus, to citizens. The only problem is that the protesters are not citizens.

U.A.E. -

Back in February, there occurred a demonstration of maybe 200 intellectuals, calling for reform of the Federal National Council. Many of those signing the petition were former members of that council. Was can't the West link up with Arab intellectuals?

Oman -

Sultan Qabus is trying an ingenious approach, asking all unemployed to register at the Ministry of Manpower, and there to begin receiving $390 a month as long as one is jobless. Demonstrations have been small. They began on Jan. 17th, protesting for salary increases and help meeting the rising cost of living. The 18th Feb. riots were inspired by those in Bahrain. On Feb. 26th, we see the protests at the Sohar industrial city, which then spreads to Salalah.

Qabus has reshuffled his cabinet three times, seeking an acceptable mix.

Final note: only two revolutions have succeeded in toppling the head-of-state (Egypt, Tunisia). But huge concessions have been made in most Arab nations. At first these concessions were material, then later, they involved devolving power onto the 'smart street.' Syria and Libya and Yemen deserve continual monitoring.


- John Paul Maynard
legal anthropologist