Egypt: Politics Suspended, Coup d'Etat, or What?

The government's electoral commission announced on June 22 that Muhammad Morsi (Morsy) has defeated Ahmed Shafiq in the presidential election. Morsi won 52%  of the vote.

But what about parliament? Egypt's Supreme Constitutional Court, yoked to the SCAF, dissolved the parliamentary elections in both houses of parliament, because religious candidates were too narrow in their allegiance. There is grave doubt that a Muslim parliament has the expertise and education required for bringing Egypt into the 21st Century. Many early supporters voted against the Muslim Brotherhood in these elections, because the country has not recovered, economically. But many secular educated types voted for the Brothers, out of fear of Mubarak's regime. That regime remains intact.

Curiously, Islamic law can play a role in altering the role of the big banks and financial brokerages, from lending cash and credits with interest, to joining entrepreneurs as joint investors. But the armed forces run the economy and do not care to share out revenues, funds, profits, on a local, person-to-person level.

Behind the scene lurks the Sphinx - Marshal Hasan Tantawi. He says nothing. There is nothing to say. All that effort and sacrifice for the revolution - has it been all for nothing? The future of the revolution is now better secured. Morsi can't put through any big Islamic project - the people will turn on him.

Morsi and his party can certainly help relieve poverty on the most basic level. Control of foreign affairs, security, and the more modern aspects of the economy, remains with SCAF.

There is a way for the government and the brotherhood to work together, symbiotically. But the corporate fallacy be-devils the loud, self-defining Muslims. If you ask one, Do you serve Islam? They will say yes. Ask them: Do you serve God? They will say yes. But Islam is no idol in the head, no one concept or institution, but different in form and content in every human who has heard about it.

No, humans do not serve Islam. Islam serves humans. Humans do not do God's work How could they when they cannot even help themselves? No, God helps you, helps the humans, who would destroy themselves without the help of revealed law. From high above, She sees them as so many worms, with openings at each end. But the clerical egos wax loud and harsh, condemning many of Abraham's children to hell because they are not Muslims. That is the sickness of the corporate fallacy in religion.

Muhammad was clear: "There is no coercion in religion."  As God says in the Bible, Numbers 8:20:
"If you use my name to cause evil, I will lay waste your soul with a special punishment."


Syria - Evisceration of the nation


Those who know Syria are quick to point out the fissures opening between communities and congregations. The Sunni-Shi'a atrocities get acted out again. This can only happen if modern ethics are abandoned. Behind the opposition is discontent, derived from failed expectations. Much of urban Syria, Damascus and Aleppo (Haleb), tasted prosperity, so were late in anti-regime demonstrations.

With bombs going off, Damascus has lost its illusory peace. The extended Al Asad family is fearful of vehicle bombs. But they are buttressed by Russia and Iran. So much has been shed one cannot expect peace for some 20 months, till passions cool, or leaders are replaced.

Practicing genocide against your own population is nothing new for the Russians and the Americans, so we might see them 'talk Asad down.' True, he has sacrificed his legitimacy, but the government personnel and assets p- they are passive, neutral. Officers cannot play the religion card with their troops, because so many are Sunni Muslims. The Sunni chauvinists, led by the Ikhwan (MB), have been importing into Syria, appx. 2 tons of weapons and ammunition each day, across the Lebanese, Turkish and Jordanian borders. The money needed comes from Saudi Arabia, Qatar, the UAE and from private sources in Turkey. The Syrian Ba'athi regime is getting daily transfusions from Iran, Iraq and even from Russia and China. None of these mock-democratic states want any instability, so back the Syrian regime and its weaponry.

The Syrian civil war is spreading into Lebanon and Iraq. Perhaps in Gaza as well. Last week's rocket barrage into Israeli settlements may have been a relief, a distraction from the gruesome fact that the Palestinians are Sunni Muslims while the Syrians and Iranian regimes are militant Shi'a.

Iraq: Wanton Slaughter of Shi'a Pilgrims at Karbala and Najaf, and in Baghdad.

How self-serving and banal, to follow your own ethnic and sectarian group into unnecessary conflict and war with one's Muslim brothers and sisters. Yet Nur al Maliki has brought in the dark mock mullah, Iranian controlled, the spoiled incompetent Sadr, who wants to kill Americans and Brits.
How unfortunate that neither took the opportunity to re-build Iraq. How? By disavowing tribal and sectarian 'causes' in order to elect people competent to fix the country.

The Kurds are playing a dangerous game, allying with Motaqa al Sadr. They are receiving from the Iranians oil and dirt-cheap Chinese-made consumer goods. So what if Iraq goes to hell...


Yemen - Al Ansar and Al Qaida on the Run?

High drama in southern Yemen, as government special forces backed by armor re-took Zinjibil and surrounding villages, killing some 70 insurgents. But the grisly Ansar 'Helpers' set off a suicide bomb, killing the Yemen army commander. Meanwhile, in Sana'a women civil rights activists insist that focus on al Qaida is all wrong. 'Let al Qaida be!" is their implication. Restoring Yemen's shattered economy is top- priority, to them. We, too, have been calling for emergency fuel and food shipments, for the past 15 months.

Any nation that lets its territory be used to launch attacks against other nations, loses much of its sovreignity, according to international law, as well as to the law of the jungle. The Pakistanis deny this, and most Yemenis also. That's why the national military command must remain integral. That is why the Saudisk, the Omanis and the Americans are conducting operations in the region. Yemen consists of some 15 regions, each with its own culture and orientation.

Neither the Yemeni armed forces or the Americans can extricate terror-cells from the country. That depends on the tribal leaderships. And behind them, their vocal constituents. In ways they never before experienced, ordinary Yemenis in the south have had to decide which side they are on. The radical Islamists were tolerable for a while. For a while, there were dissident army units in Ta'iz. But under the new leadership, a plea has been made for national salvation.

Riots in Israel featuring Jews and Arabs together -

June 23-24 in Tel Aviv witnessed swarms of social rights demonstrators turning violent, smashing bank windows, blocking traffic, and creating general mayhem. The demonstration was, is, a protest against the huge income gap between the politically connected rich, some 20 families, and the other 99.9 per cent. One lesson: the politics of symbolic appeal has till now vexed practical solutions, but from here on in, the challenges, economic and environmental, are such that no state or political party can afford ideology. We heard Israeli military leaders (Shaul Mofas and Ehud Barak) confess that the West Bank and Gaza is such a mess, such an expensive stand-off, that unilateral withdrawal from Arab Palestine might occur.

At the same time, there has grown up an array of armed groups dedicated to Jihad. In Gaza, these are: Jaish al Ummah wa Masadah, Jund Ansar Allah, Jaish al Islam, Jamaat Ansar al Suna and the Jamaat al Tauhid wa'l Jihad fi Filistin. The bedoin in the Sinai are now calling them selves 'Al Qaida.' The Iranians used to be paymasters, but now they focus on Iraq and Syria. The Palestinian groups are Sunni, anyway. Can Hamas control these hotheads? Can the secular Palestinian authority infiltrate all groups planning violent genocidal acts to create terror?

Just as many Arabs live in Israel, so many Jews live in Palestine. But they must be citizens of that state, vote in its elections, take positions alongside Arabs. Of course this is anathema to the clerics and congregations on both sides. Will the Holy Land survive the clerics? Can the world afford this foolish 'war of the faiths?'  How do you think God feels when She looks down and sees the Children of Abraham fight amongst themselves? She sees clearly the fatal human tendency, of the ego and the ordinary conceptual mind, go to bed together, a kind of the incest. Personality so covers the Essence that most of the Earthlings live their lives oblivious to their deep roots. We all come from the same source.



The author is moderator/instructor of the online discussion group 'Islamic Civilization,' hosted by the Graduate Alumni Office, Harvard University. He can be reached at tulku7@verizon.net.

Is Syria a Civil War? Or Just Genocide?
 
When non-combatants are slain because of their religion, ethnicity or by exercising their rights of speech and assembly, we call this genocide - a killing of the people. Soldiers cannot even imagine turning their weapons on unarmed civilians. The massacre last week in Houla featured tank and artillery fire, followed by an assault by the shabiha, the 'ghosts,' on the Sunni town. These are Nusayri militia armed by the Asad regime, for defensive purposes. The press calls them Alewites, partisans of Ali, but that term is much too broad. The Nusayris trace back through the Old Man of the Mountain, the Assassins, and can be found anywhere. Modern, educated Syria does not want any of it. Time and again I hear "This is not a religious struggle." Not many Syrians support either Sunni or Shi'a dominance. Of course, to amateurs outside Syria, that seems to be what is happening - a sectarian war.

First, there are many factors at play, not just sectarian identifications. Syria is amazingly complex and varied. The population is quite mature, taking their Islam in spirit if not in letter, admitting diversity, such as protecting the Christians. Some 73% of Syrian Muslims want that guarantee. Amongst the opposition, some 83% are Sunnis, which means 17% are not. They're educated secular Shi'a, and Christians. Of course there are Sunni soldiers fighting for Asad, a majority in the army if not in the intelligence agencies. It helps to narrow down the argument, and that argument has little to do with religion, or religious rights.

But outsiders may not see it that way. Sunnis in Syria are being armed by its Sunni neighbors. The Shi'a backing Al Asad look towards the land corridor established from Teheran to Baghdad to Damascus to Hizbullah in Lebanon, thanks to the Americans and the British. Indeed, this week sees deadly firefights between Shi'a-Sunni neighbors in Tripoli, Lebanon, with some 25 killed over three days.

We do not believe Syria has fallen into a religious war or even a civil war, as we do not see fighting on broad fronts, capture of towns, outside invasions. Multiply the violence by eight (8) and then we can call it a civil war. But still not a religious one.

Our own experience in Syria has been bizarre. I know basic Qur'anic Arabic so often startled those with whom I spoke. Syria still keeps alive those old traditions, which transcend the Sunni-Shi'a split. Ba'ath socialism may ignore them, suppress them, but even in the schools, the classic Arab poets are read. Many, like Mutanabbi, were Syrian. So it still has a classical culture. Homs, for example, used to be an empire in its own right, called Emesa. Of course the regime has been wasteful. So over-reaching is the state, that reforms were obviously overdue. Bashar al Asad tried to reform for a decade, setting up independent banks and special import/export zones, and giving passports to entrepreneurs. But, as usual, revolutions occur not at the low point but when expectations rise.

Behind the maneuvers of the United Nations, the EU, USA, Russians, is the deep dark quiet convergence between Syria and all of her neighbors and allies. Turkey, Iran, Iraq, Lebanon, Jordan, Cyprus, Israel, Greece, Egypt - all are maneuvering in the dark. All that newly-discovered Islamic friendship of the recent past, now a mockery of Medina's promise, as tensions increase between al these big actors.

Smaller groups serve as cushioning or as ball bearings, propelling the crises. The Kurds, the Armenians, the Azeris, the Druze, the Ismailis, the four kinds of Christianity, the remaining Jews, the Baha'is, plus the religions of socialism and communism, Moloch and/or the 'free' market, which of course is not free.

It is doubtful that the Houla massacre will cause Asad to pause. He shares power with his brother, who is providing security in a most pro-active way. As Shi'ites, they see it as a desperate struggle against Sunni terrorists, though these are few in number. The Russians are correct in saying both sides have responsibilities, that both are to blame. But turning heavy weapons on one's own unarmed civilians, has abrogated the regime's legitimacy, making it open season on Asad's Ba'athists.

The Syrian National Council is riven by divisions, between religious and secular, Arab and Kurd, between the careful strategists seeking international recognition (and outside intervention) and the hotheads busy with sending in ammunition and keeping communications open. The departure last week of the Kurds is indicative of the splintering. It is only natural that the Kurds respond to the huge forces squeezing them, from Turkey, from Iran, from Syria and Iraq.

Azerbaijan and Armenia are close to war. Each has had nearly 20 years to stockpile weapons and ammunition. The issue is who owns Nagorno-Karabagh, a small section of greater Armenia. Outside benefactors help the Armenians retain this holy place, while Turkey and Russia support the Azeris. US interests in Azeri oil puts it in a difficult situation. For the Azeri hotheads executed genocidal projects against unarmed Armenian grandmothers, killing some 40,000, after Armenian forces occupied a full one fourth of Azeri territory. War in Syria nearby may be accelerating events.

Russia is still master of some 160 peoples, each with its own language, so does not want to see Syrian socialism overthrown, lest such rebellion occur inside Russia. Putin was correct when he said Russia has no special relation with Syria." He'll persist in blocking sanctions till the West agrees that the rebels are also to blame. If saying that will bring peace, we will. Each side needs a way out, a way of saving face, not just a way of protecting themselves.

We know what happens after a month or two of violence in a Syrian neighborhood. Civilians are killed, then the buildings are abandoned, to be occupied by snipers, then shot to pieces. About 1.3 million Syrians are internally displaced.

It may be too late to be pessimistic.



Egypt - A New Islamic Republic

The presidential elections in May produced 13 winners, none of whom got over 25% of the vote. The top five of these, are all extremists of one stripe or another. The big divide is between the Muslim Brotherhood and the SCAF 'descendents,' backed by big business and many secular older folk, led by former prime minister Ahmed Shafiq. The Ikhwan candidate, Muhammad Morsi, seems to hold the advantage, but the media has turned on him and other Islamists, prompting attacks by Muslim hotheads on state TV stations. Another party, led by Hamdan Sabahi, is 'extreme secularist' meaning that the want democracy and economic development, thereby attracting many technocrats and businessmen.

The run-off election is on June 16. Egypt has not recovered economically. All sides claim to have plans for fixing 'the system' (an Nizam) but of course this depends on technocrats up and down the line. Uneducated Muslim clerics and their followers have a role: distributing aid and assistance to those in need: the poor, the sick, the elderly and the children.

Saudi is investing nearly $2 billion into the Egyptian elections, providing all the MB cells with hard cash to purchase influence and some supplies for the people. The literature attached is banal, inane, as the Wahhabis think outer things matter, when even their own muftis, Ahmed Hanbal and ibn Taymiyya, tell them to focus on the heart, on the inside. For Islam is a personal quest, not some sports team or army that one might join. Those who say they serve Christ or Muhammad or God have a lofty view of themselves. Obviously, we need God. God doesn't need us. Our own personal guardian angels may need our efforts, but not God. We are like worms or ants, to God, or, in any case, much smaller than we think. We do not serve Islam, it serves us. There as many kinds of Islam as there are Muslims, plus all the non-Muslims who know about it.

No, it is a disappointing scene, the economic collapse, a grinding dirt poor penury afflicting urban and rural alike, decline of the money, inflation, soaring commodity prices, declining foreign investment, expatriates reluctant to come home, residual anti-foreigner and anti-Semitic sentiments, rising hostility against Copts, endless scheming by ideologues bent on power, a state apparatus (army, police, intel, big business) unable to pay for itself without American contributions.


Yemen - June's Battle of Zinjibar

Yesterday we received reports of a battle in Zinjibar, a small city on Yemen's southern coast, in Abyan province, near the port of Aden. This town fell to al Qaeda of the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) a year ago. AQAP has been chased out of the Hadramaut last autumn, as its leaders were slain by American drones. These crazed Sunni Islamists moved in Abyan over the winter, focusing their force on government troops in Ta'iz, an important provincial center in the southern mountains.

Yemenis should be grateful that the revolution ended when and how it did, permitting its army to deploy to the south. Even the two rebellions in the north, the Houthi tribe and by the Zaydi Shi'i imams, seem to subside. Maybe that's just because the economy is prostrate - no extra gas, water, food, electricity, or, for the hard pressed, ammo.

A year ago we looked at the port al Hudayda on Yemen's Red Sea coast (called the Tihama), and saw no aid ships. We need aid shipments we said then. Only a little aid has been forthcoming. The prices for food keep going up. Yemen used to export oil and food, but now can't fuel or feed itself. Let me quick to add, however, that the Yemeni farmers are masters of their terrains: they build terraces, or they'll farm in a wadi or in an alluvial fan.

M. Abdul Hadi is clearly a care-taker. The opposition really needed to focus on one leader, with a detailed policy for recovery, which includes democracy.

David Petraeus is personally directing the drone activities over Yemen, as CIA chief. Two weeks ago, some 20 militants were tracked to a house, which was hit by either a Predator drone or by US Navy pilots. The US has kept two carriers in the Arabian Sea, and maintains a base on Masirah Island, off Oman.

Israel/Palestine - Unilateral Withdrawal?

Israeli defense minister Ehud Barack gives voice to a rational sentiment, that the Israel just pull out of the West Bank, including East Jerusalem. Zealots with genocidal projects cry foul, but the IDF can always reoccupy regions of Palestine, even Gaza, if they host militants staging attacks.

Iran's alleged development of an atomic device is still a top issue. Even more pressing, the new corridor connecting the Hizbullah fighters in Lebanon, to Iran, through Syria's Baathi regime, through the Maliki-Sadr failed Iraqi government. Can Iran actually send military units into Syria and Lebanon? Clandestinely, in small numbers, as is happening.

The sanctions against Iran for upgrading uranium are preventing Iran from sending much of anything to Asad. Small rockets and ammunition for Hizbullah. Moral support. Hamas in Gaza has already re-discovered its Sunni chauvinism. Maybe Egypt will give them free ammunition and rockets. But Israel need not fear. Its civil defense program has been perfected. Patriot and Arrow batteries will knock down the bigger ballistic warheads, launched from Syria or Iran, while the Iron Dome can be deployed close to the borders.

The US Republicans usually believe the Israel they read about in their Bibles as children, is the Israel you see on the map today. The big war is against the Muslims, who many American 'christians' call the way to the Devil. Goofs like Perry, Santoram and Romney state openly that they will open operations against the Islamic Republic of Iran, and drive the Palestinians out of Palestine. This is the prerequisite for the End of Days, the final showdown.

So we see the craziness as afflicting our own leaders, clergy included. Clergy rule just behind the scenes in Morocco, Tunisia, Egypt, Israel, Gaza, Turkey, Iraq, Iran, Afghanistan, Tajikistan and Pakistan. In America, too. Canada too is still being led by a christian fundamentalist. 

Algeria -  Water Works

The third desal plant coming on line this month will give Algeria some 30% more fresh water. Did Algeria avoid an Arab Spring showdown? No, it instigated it. For seven months, continual demonstrations by POLISARIO down in Tindouf led to self-immolations and defiance of authority, which spread by radio to Libya, Tunisia and Egypt.

None of us should be so naive as to expect that Morocco's forced annexation of the Western Sahara would have no impact on the larger picture. Just because we don't hear about it, does not make it any less potent, simmering as it does for years and years. Slavery in Mauritania is another destabilizing issue. The Tuareg have been effected and affected by the Arab rebellions, most notably by Libya's civil war. That did spread through the Sahara, from Sabha down to Ghat, across a corner of Algeria, then into Niger, Mali. 

Two Tuareg groups compete to extend control over Gao and Timbuctoo, in Mali. The north has broken away. It seems more like the north has conquered down to the River Niger. Malian forces concentrate around Bamako. The Tuareg rebels fall into two groups: the democratic rebels, secular and indigenous, and the Islamists. Throw into some Qaddafi loyalists, trained soldiers, who managed to ship out much ammunition and small arms. And many Toyota trucks.

Sudan - Sudanese Forces Pull Back from Abiye

The Islamist Arab regime of Omar Bashir has ordered its soldiers out of the Abiye area, thus avoiding war with South Sudan. It is, after all, a no-brainer: Abiye lies right on the border between the two Sudans. So obviously they should share it 50-50. That would be better than destroying the oil fields and pumping stations. Daa...

Readers curious about Islam might log on to htto://middleeastspeculum.blogspot.com.
Your comments are welcome.
                       
The author is, amongst other things, the moderator/instuctor of the online discussion group 'Islamic Civilization' hosted by the Graduate Alumni Office, Harvard University.