The Arab League Visits Syria

Syria -

Demonstrations break out all over Syria after Friday prayers, today, 30 Dec.

Violence dropped for one day as the monitors from the Arab League finally deploy. But the next day the Syrian regime continued with its murderous tactics, deploying armor against neighborhoods in Homs, Hama, Dera'a, Idlib and against a huge demonstration, estimated at 250,000, in Damascus. Some 40 were killed in these cities on the 28^th of Dec.. On the 30^th, another 40 were killed as the army opened fire on crowds leaving Friday prayers.

The League needs a little time to gather facts. We expect their first report in early January. So far, the League seems to be allied with the regime of Bashar al Asad, traveling inside army communications. The head of the League monitors is Lt. Gen. Mustafa ad Dabi. He's from the Sudan where he was active in the suppression of the rebels in Darfur.

If the League equivocates, sides with the regime and its murderous thugs, it will be seen through, open for all to see. At the same time, we do expect the League to voice support for all factions (including pro-regime civilians).

Receiving reports from Homs, we wonder how the League can even get into neighborhoods like Bab al Amr, so great is the destruction. Life in Homs has become very basic: a search for water, a little food, heat. People have endured some nine months of cruel suppression. Almost everyone has lost a friend or family member.

Police and intel (mukhabarat) units cannot move freely into radicalized neighborhoods, without armor and artillery of the Syrian army. That military is over-stretched: intervention is largely temporary: the armor and infantry visit and revisit certain villages and neighborhoods. Many villages and neighborhoods never see them at all. They do raid city blocks and villages, usually after specific fighters and activists, but end up arresting innocent men in a dragnet.

Over the past nine months, the protests have evolved into a national movement. Today, some 250 demonstrations took place, in virtually all towns and cities. The protesters are aiming to occupy main traffic circles, monuments and parks.

The presence of the Arab League monitors has induced larger demonstrations. The huge one today in Damascus may have topped a quarter of a million. The monitors are being told by the regime that their presence is triggering unrest, just as journalists do. 'Playing to the camera.'

But it is entirely proper that the presence of monitors leads to more and bigger demonstrations. The Syrian opposition is so low, so poor, so hard-pressed, that any attention from outside, is seen as help. The Arab League will likely not be able to give much help. To continue the task, the League will require several hundred monitors.

But can it broker a deal with Asad? A ceasefire? Release of prisoners?

Some 140 have been killed during the 50 hours since the AL monitors arrived. Yesterday a video showed orange-vested AL monitors running for their lives with protesters, as Syrian shabeeba thugs fired into the crowd. The regime does not seem to be in control of its own forces. Genocide is chaos.

Egypt -

On the 29^th of Dec., the Egyptian secret policed launched raids against several pro-democracy groups, NGOs, two of which were official American – the Democrat and Republican institutes of democracy). On the 30^th the Egyptian government finally censured the police, telling the NGOs (and the US ambassador) that they need not worry about such raids in the future. All materials taken by the security police were to be returned. But then, on New Year's Day, the Egyptian government reversed itself, promises disciplinary action against NGOs seeking to influence Egypt's people.

Elections are running through their last phase. Soon, attention will be focused on drafting a constitution. We'll see that in the spring of 2012. In the summer there will be elections for prime minister.

Valid candidates include Muhammad al Baradei and Amr Musa – the former head of the Arab League. But much can happen till then.

Small groups of demonstrators have been occupying Tahrir Square for nearly a month. They want to disband the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces, render the army to civilian control. Naturally, they drew the army's wrath. Some 70 have been killed in Tahrir Square since Dec. 8.

The parliamentary elections show the Islamists winning some 50%. That includes the Muslim Brotherhood, the Salafis and various Sufi groups. The army is hoping the MB will discipline those Salafis bent on action. The problem is that the MB cannot discipline itself, that is, it cannot stop small cells from going virile. The problem is that the MB's charter and its literature, sees everything Western as against Islam. This stance was a cheap shot that successfully usurped the genuine Islamic reform tradition, starting with Jalal ad-Din al Afghani, and going through Mohammed Abdou. To them, the obstacle was the clergy's refusal to educate itself and accept Western implements and ideas.

The West has no choice but to deal with Muslim political parties. Here we see the tragic weakness, a kind of willful ignorance, that basically phases out 'the other, the enemy.' Because so few Americans know the Qur'an and the original texts of Islamic law, there is not much hope for understanding, intelligent dialogue.

The Islamists do not help themselves by saying stupid things like “Democracy is incompatible with Islam.” Our readers know how untrue that is. Traditionally, Arab Bedouin elected their sheikhs. The first four rashidun caliphs were elected (by the ulema, most likely on Muhammad's order). It is not unusual to see meetings end with a show of hands.

Yemen -

Unrest simmers in Sana'a and elsewhere. Ali Saleh has yet to depart, as he said he would. His destination: the USA. But just for a few days. That's what he said on the 27^th of Dec. He said he would return to Yemen and “join the opposition.” Meanwhile, the opposition wants to get him before he escapes, to try him for the many crimes of his forces.

Those forces are still controlled by Saleh's son Ahmad, and his nephew. On the other side are dissident soldiers under Gen. Mohsin. The elite is fissiparous, the army split. Power remains with the tribes.

Meanwhile, the economy has contracted to street level: little water, food, fuel, medicine, ammo. The international community by now should have arranged for supply ships unloading at al Hudaydah on the Red Sea.

Israel -

Israel is a Muslim country, Arab, so we watch her politics: the great backlash against ultra-orthodox Jews who split on and harass women. In Brooklyn, NY, a transportation country owned by orthodox segregates men and women in different buses and vans, or puts women in the back of buses and vans, thereby violating US law. The Americans are more friendly with the religious fundamentalists than is the Israeli populace. The USA is of course a player (not an arbiter) in the Middle East.

Palestine -

Little information is leaking about the proposed merger of Hamas and the Palestinian Authority. This has been tried on at least four occasions. In every case, the clergy in Hamas overreached themselves, demanding positions for which they are not qualified.

Iraq -

The last US soldier left and 12 hours later there were a string of 13 bombs directed at government (Shi'a) targets, including pilgrims. Deep fissures open up between Sunni and Shi'a. Iran is readying itself to step in, 'clandestinely'. Already there is a low-intensity war underway.

President Nur al Maliki is at fault for falling under the influence of the dim Sadr entity, an obvious Iranian stooge. He would not have won if he had  chosen otherwise. Maliki is going after the Sunni Vice President Hashemi, who sought sanctuary with the Kurds in the north. Hashemi is accused of links with Sunni death squads. Those squads bear the hallmarks of al Qaida, so I doubt Hashemi is connected.

Iran -

Arabs live in Iran, in Khuzistan. Western Europe and North America are pushing through a blockade of Iran, preventing its sale of oil and gas. The Iranians vow to close the Straits. The US replies that this will mean war. There is a 10% chance that Iran will dump mines into the Strait. The US has special helicopters that can explode these mines from the air. But if Irani revolutionary guards deploy in small boats with shoulder-fired missiles, those helicopters cannot operate.

Iran possesses some eight frigate/destroyers and four small modern diesel submarines. It is not clear that US ships and installations can shoot down Irani cruise missiles. Iran has test-fired two of these just in the past 40 hours.

Any such tussle will give the Israelis the chance to conduct a bombing campaign against nuclear facilities in Natanz, Qom and elsewhere.

Iran may opt for conflict, to heal the rifts tearing apart the government. The world price for oil will likely double, impoverishing Iran, but the damage would redound onto the Americans. Or so they think.

Saudi Arabia -

The day after the Iranians said they would stop traffic in the Straits of Hormuz, the White House announced the $82 billion sale of F-16Ds with upgrades for 70 other F-16s, to the Kingdom. The Gulf Cooperation Council announced that they can make up for lost oil due to Irani aggression. The world financial and commodity markets were lulled back to sleep.

The author is, amongst other things, the moderator/instructor for the online discussion group 'Islamic Civilization' hosted by the Graduate Alumni Association, Harvard University.

AN INTENSIFICATION OF THE VIOLENCE

AN INTENSIFICATION OF THE VIOLENCE

The winter solstice, like September's equinox, features an acceleration of events, each fraught with implications for the future. Will the protesters succeed in bringing down the army? Syria, Egypt and Iraq are in extremis, with people slowly starving. But Yemen, peace has finally arrived.

Syria -

An unfortunate increase in violence has troubled Syrians of all stripes. The regime is convinced it is dealing with 'terrorists' and now, al Qaidah. Explosions rock Damascus: some forty regime personnel were killed when suicide bombers penetrated a government secret police 'intelligence' HQ.

Since the attack was concurrent with the arrival of the first Arab League monitors, many believed the Syrian regime staged the attack. But would the regime kill 40 of its own intelligence staff?

Syrian intelligence in Lebanon claim to have tracked the movement of arms and Al Qaidah personnel from Lebanon into Syria. Readers of this blog are familiar with this point of vulnerability – Lebanon. We have often wondered how many weapons and ammo and Sunni MB agents have infiltrated Syria from Lebanon.

In any case, some 28 demonstrators were shot dead on the 22^nd . There were some 200 demonstrations in Syria on the 24rd . Earlier, on the 20^th, some 80 were killed during a regime assault on the town of Idlib. In short, an increase in violence.

It is impossible to know for sure, but it seems the attack was not by al Qaida or the Muslim Brotherhood, but by dissident soldiers in conjunction with civilians bent of revenge for the murder of their loved ones. That's our bet. We could be wrong, but I doubt the operatives coming into Syria, could stage a sophisticated attack on a well-defended police/air force HQ, with two days of planning.

The US State Department followed European states in declaring that Bashar al Asad and his henchmen, have lost all legitimacy. Syrian regime officials cannot travel or access money stashed overseas. Switzerland, for example, has frozen some $55 million in accounts held by Al Asad (Dec.22).

The Arab League has matured to the point that it can move against Arab rulers bent of genocide. We are most pleasantly surprised. Now League officials are deploying throughout Syria. Their presence amongst the civilians demonstrating, will prevent the police from firing blindly into the crowd. If Arab League mediators are killed by regime forces, the League will isolate the regime even more.

Will the regime run out of money to pay its agents? The regime will use force to keep many police, intel and army personnl working. But how long can this go on? Many regions are already destitute: the economy is collapsing. We believe the Syrian regime will bow to Arab League injunctions, hoping to evade sanctions. But too much blood has been shed. The UN said today that some 5,000 have died, shot by security personnel. Obviously, people are not going down: some 700 of those killed were members of the army or police.

The Syrian regime's talk against terrorism is not credible. Syria sent thousands of Islamist militants across the border into Iraq, to kill coalition forces. That's why the West wants him out.

Egypt -

Tahrir Square has been occupied for nearly three weeks. Some 70 were killed outright by the army. On the 21^st, women held a demonstration in the Square, protesting army violence. The army did not touch them, but then again, the women did not march on government offices.

The protest is about the assumption of power by the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces, led by Marshall Hussein Tantawi 'the Sphinx.' This raises the complicated issue of the army's role. Jokingly, Egyptians say 'the army has deployed to the coasts' referring to the many hotels and villas dedicated just to army officers. Over the past 20 years, some effort has been made to sell army businesses and industries to the private sector.

Elections have brought the Islamists into power, though they played little role in the revolution of the 28^th of January. How will they compromise with secular democrats? With the technocrats?

Yemen -

On the 24th of Dec. violence breaks out when demonstrators marched on the presidential palace in Sana'a. They were met with elite Revolutionary Guards behind barricades. Tear gas and rubber bullets apparently did not stop the crowd of some 12,000., for the soldeirs fired into the crowd, killing at least nine. Note: many of the marchers had walked for 4 days from Ta'iz, where some weeks ago, the Guard killed some 25.

This raises the question of discipline. The uncompromising attitudes of the opposition were useful last year, but unnecessary when Saleh agreed to step down. That was back in late February 2011.

M ore recently, on November 23, president Ali Abdullah Saleh formally resigned, transferring power to his deputy, Abdu Rabbo Mansur Hadi. Hadi is trying to lead a transitional government but of course lacks credibility amongst the opposition. This too is too harsh. Why cannot Yemenis talk it out?

The opposition's Prime Minister designate is Muhammad Salem Basundwa, a former minister, but chiefly a newspaper man. He's from Aden and was active in the way of freedom, since the British ruled. The British imprisoned him. So he has the revolutionary credentials required.

In some places in Sana'a, it looks like  peace has broken out, with citizens and police removing the many barricades in Sana'a's streets. But...after eleven months of struggle, the revolution in Yemen is not over. Peace depends in part on the Al Ahmer family, tribal leaders, who face the wrath of Saleh loyalists for nearly killing the president last summer. The opposition too, is still divided: "You can cut us in many ways: secular/sectarian, socialists/capitalists, educated/uneducated, Sunni/Shi'a, tribe by tribe, old and young. It is this last which is most important. For the youth are organized, if not by the mullahs and imams, then by electronic culture. The youth, the shebab, may not make policies and sign agreements, but, with their cell phones and social media, they are the ones who move the people, who tactically organize and direct the demonstrations. They are linked nationally.

The demonstrators feel that Saleh's resignation will not bring down the corrupt regime. Economic realities dictate another, more efficient and less corrupt government. For example, Sana'a only gets an hour of electricity a day. How could that be? Why is not the infrastructure being used? What happened to the over $13 billion in aid Yemen received since 2000?

We expect a huge demonstration on Christmas Day. In fact, there will be protests in some 13 provinces. Just last summer, we saw the tribes emerge as de facto rulers of their regions. But now we see all the provinces unite to bash a government already making steps to democracy.

Iraq -

We include Iraq though it has not had an 'Arab Spring.' Instead, the Americans pulled out this week. Is that freedom? With the withdrawal of the Americans, the way is wide open for the terrorists to crawl out of their holes. Hence the 16 bombs that went off on the Dec. 22^nd, 2011. Since the targets were Shi'a, we can only assume that Al Qaida is back in business.

The situation is slowly degenerating. Many vital issues cannot be settle, and policies implemented. The oil industry is languishing because the Kurds, the Shi'a and the Sunnis cannot agree on who owns what or how Iraq's huge resources are to be managed and apportioned. Other sectors, like agriculture and industry, also suffer, partly due to the lack of electrical power.

We've received the first reports that Iran is moving over to a more direct attempt to control Iraq.

The author is, amongst other things, the moderator/instructor for the online discussion group on Islamic civilization, hosted by the Graduate Alumni Association, Harvard University

New Unrest in Egypt and Syria

Egypt - The second phase of parliamentary elections give 30% of votes to the Muslim Brotherhood, and 30% for Salafi candidates. We are surprised that the figures are so low. These elections are taking place in Suez, Ismailiyya, and in delta and Nile towns, areas supposedly more conservative than Cairo and Alexandria. 

Demonstration in Tahrir Square became violent as army units block access to government buildings. Young men are demonstrating against the usurpation of power and privilege by former-regime officers and officials. Some 20 have been killed from the 5th to 19th of Dec. 2011. Egyptian officers displayed their opinion of the Al Jazirah media channels by throwing its equipment out high floors overlooking the Square.

Egypt is a religious nation; naturally they see Islam as the most important part of their culture. The poor voted for the Salafists. Since they never received any benefits, they opt for the Islamists in their neighborhood. Salafis in Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the UAE have flooded Egypt with money, some 500 million, and this has permitted the Salafis and MB to become professional organizations, paying small pensions to the destitute.(If you've been poor, you know the necessity of a little bit of money.)

 Syria - On Dec. 19 we hear that the Syrian government has accepted the UN and Arab League's peace plan. We hear that Arab League mediators are now entering Syria. The idea is now to work for a ceasefire: the army and police cease and desist, while the opposition must refrain from violent demonstrations. 

Twenty seven were killed on the 16th of Dec. Syrian army. Needless to say, police can no longer go where they want: dissident soldiers are trying to protect the crowds. The recent fighting has been most intense in Dara'a and in Hama: these are people seeking revenge for losses of family and friends.

The Arab League is constantly trying to find workable solutions. Just today, Dec. 19^th, we hear that the Al Asad regime has accepted League mediators. The UN threatens to refer Syria may to the International Criminal Control. On the 15th, Iraqi peace negotiators arrived in Damascus. On the 17th of Dec., they meet with the opposition. Iraq may have a special role, due to its Shi'i leadership. But we expect it will side with the Al Asad regime, just as Iran does, and for the same reason (sectarian ideololgy, all three are ruled by Shi'a).
 
Iraq - The US ends its decade-long occupation on December 15, 2011. The majority of Iraqis do not view the American invasion and occupation in a positive way. True, Saddam was killing an average 30 to 50 thousand Iraqis each year; but the US had to leave because Iraq's Shi'i government refused to grant US personnel freedom from prosecution by Iraqi courts.  

The Iraqi government has its own tussle with the Islamic Republic: bombs have killed over a hundred Shi'a pilgrims in the past ten days. An Iranian cleric is put in office in Najaf. Mullah Sadr's Irani-trained hit squads are now targeting US foreign service personnel, and contractors. 

More valuable to the US than bases, is the friendship and cooperation between American and Iraqi governments, providing: the opening of oil wells, firepower (F-16s) and in intelligence. The government of Nur al Maliki is in bed with the Sadr entity. Sadr owes everything to the American liberation of Iraq, yet is a dim anti-American ideologue, a puppet being played by Irani clerics. 

There are some wild, lawless areas, and gangs operating out of revenge. Kirkuk is shared by Kurds, Sunni Arabs, Turcomen, and some Christians. The suburb of Doura, south of Baghdad, has not healed. Nor have Falluja and parts of Mosul. Najaf, Karballa, and Sadr City in Baghdad are the Shi'a areas, also subject to suicide bombers. 

Yemen - After ten months of demonstrations, and shoot-outs between loyal and dissident army units, peace seems to have descended on Sana'a, al Hudayda, Aden. Taiz is also quiet, though we think the army will continue to battle Islamists, including al Qaida.

Yemen has been a humanitarian disaster zone even before the Arab Spring. Shortages of food, water, fuel, medicine, and jobs have rendered life difficult. Basically, the country is now ruled by the tribes. These tribesmen will play with Islamist militants, but will collapse them, turn them in, when they get a better offer. The assassination of Anwar Awlaki and other Al Qaida leaders was made possible because the tribes received big payments beneath the table. Meanwhile, in Sana'a another kind of stand-off is looming. Saleh has resigned the presidency but keeps his son and other relatives and friends in various positions and in businesses. How the Saleh dynasty will unravel itself, pick up and go, has yet to be seen.

Revolutionaries Outflanked by Tribe and Sect

Revolutionaries Outflanked by Tribe and Sect

Elections in Tunisia and Egypt gives influence on the highest levels to long-suppressed Muslim parties – Al Ikhwan al Muslimiyya (Muslim Brotherhood or MB), the Salafis and some eight other groups, mostly Sufis like the followers of Niffari, plus assorted Naqshbandiyya, Qaderi, Tijaniyya, Amediyya, and Coptic-Muslim associations.

“My people do not agree on an error” said Muhammad Qureyshi, rendering dissent as necessary and sacred. The Christian injunction to love one's enemies is not just because it is the human thing to do, but because the enemy often has what I need and want, which is self-knowledge. Just because I am willfully ignorant of my opposition, of how he thinks, does not infer that my enemy is ignorant of my character, self-deceits, conceits and aspirations.

There's no theory of war in the Qur'an and terrorism is described, step by step, from the initial complaint and defamation, to the planning, executing and the consequences which follow, in this world and the next.

If a few MB, Salafi and Sufi Muslim leaders are given seats in the parliament, the cabinet, and the intel police, this will effectively ward off mass Islamist resurgence. The MB cannot flex its muscle without drawing opposition from other Muslim groups, not to mention the educated secular folk.

These moderate Islamists of North Africa know they do not possess the skills, the science, required to manage and grow large modern societies. But scientists in the West are too quick to write off (or defame) Islamic civilization.

Muslims the world over suffer the indignation of cruel, inhuman laws that wormed their way into the shari'a. Those are: stoning, the cutting off of hands, the suppression of women, the treatment of non-Muslims, terror and jihad.

In this world, the best and the worst often go back-to-back. The Catholic church performs humanizing functions for the poor, the sick, the elderly, the disabled. But it also launched and prosecuted some 63 genocidal wars, plus the Inquisition (which has been revived under the German pope.)

The same is with large Muslim organs. They do great work locally, providing services, services the government cannot give (because the money went to debt servicing, the armed forces and to a corrupt elite).

Women have been providing services all along so they too deserve a place in the cabinet and in parliament. We hope at least one woman will be on the parliamentary committee charged with writing a new constitution. There should be three.

If we observe Islamists trying to deprive women of their rights, then we know that some are bent on engineering society using dubious hadith and highly select verses from the Qur'an. Another bad sign would be the teaching of hate in North Africa medressehs, as wood sabotage and terror. (Note: the vital NG pipeline from Egypt to Israel has been bombed five times).

Let us look more closely at last week's election returns.

Egypt -

The Nov. 28 elections were just part one in a graduated sequence of balloting. But the strong showing of Islamists in Cairo and Alexandria will only increase as up-coming elections move from province to province. In November, the MB-sourced Freedom and Justice party took 36.6% of the vote, while the Salafists took an astounding 24.4%. This upset was made possible because of a grass-roots organization, funded by money from Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the UAE. As for the secular Egyptian Bloc, they took some 1.29 votes out of 9.7 million ballots cast.

The original revolutionaries, secular, educated youth, were unable to reach the many more poor and uneducated. The new Wafd party took fewer than one million votes. The modern moderate Islamist party Al Wasit also received less than one million.

November's elections covered only 9 of Egypt's 27 governates. The up-coming elections on Dec.14-15 will cover municipalities in lower Egypt, while the elections of Jan.3-4 2012, will involve districts in the center and south of the country.

 Tunisa -

November elections were free and fair, and we should not be too surprised that Islamists win seats in parliament. The moderate Islamist party, Ennahda, has ruled tolerantly on a number of key issues, like rights for women. But the Salafist party, the Ansar Ash Shari'ah (AST), has ruled most intolerantly, advocating violent jihad, even persecution  of non-Muslims, and that includes secular educated Tunisians.

The Ansar ash Sharia'a was established last April, as many Tunisian jihadists returned home. Some had served in Iraq and Afghanistan, and the Salafis want government to take care of these jihadists. AST sides with the Taliban and with Al Qaida. They follow the extremist sheikh Al Kitab al Idrisi, and are based in the Bab al Khadra neighborhood of Tunis.

The Salafis in Tunisia are not as established as the Salafis in Egypt and Lebanon. and the Gulf. We fully expect the An Anahda to monitor and restrain the more militant, media-savvy Salafis.

Many secular folk in and outside Tunisia lament the results of democratic elections - the accession of Islamists. But democracy is a path to be followed: the ideologues  become responsible when elected. If not, they're ridiculed and dismissed. The Qur'an contains no theory of or call for war. It does not talk of holy war, and of course it condemns 'mischief in the earth.'  It is certainly incorrect to say that Muahaamad at Mecca was npot democratic. The first four rashidun calipyhs were elected (by the ulema) and Muhammad told them to handle any succession issues that way.

There is a real divide between the Bedouin and the urban-based Salafists. The Bedouin elect their sheikhs, and they are not driven by some one-line passage in the scriptures. The Salafis and Islamiksts in general are said to represent the countryside, but that's not quite how it is. The small farmers and the bazaar are poor, but put their faith is the impartial forces of the market.

It is very embarrassing to talk with Islamists because very few know their own codes (fiqh, shari'a) and even fewer have ever studied their faith using the techniques of modern physical and psychological sciences.  How many are qualified for public office? In any case, the people are not going to let the politics of symbolic appeal trump what needs to be done, practically.

Yemen -

A new interim government under Abdul Rahman Al Mansur al Qadi is sworn in on Sat. Ddec.10, but this splits the protesters. Many think the regime will not give up control, and that the corrupt elite will escape trial. Other protesters want the protests to end so the economy can be rescued. Both the tribes and the Islamists are now players. Yet chaos reigns, and we expect further outbursts of fighting. The new government must immediately bring dissident army units under control. The army needs be united, and this may be difficult.

Even though Ali Saleh resigns, flying to Riyadh (Dec.3), fighting breaks out in Taizz between loyal and insurgent army forces. Some 50 are killed, from Dec.4 to Dec. 9, 2011. Tribes and sects are vying for power. Violence in Sana'a as well, involving Revolutionary Guards under the command of Ahmed Saleh, fighting dissident army units led by Gen, Ali Mohsen.

Yemen is facing a debilitating crisis, with shortages of NG, gasoline, diesel, food, medicines, water. The port of Al Hudayda should have five big freighters and two tankers (NG, jet, and auto fuels), if the international community is responding as it should, meeting the Yemenis' requirements.

One reason Saleh left Yemen is because he leaves his own family and friends in the lurch. They'll be rolled back. If and when a new government takes office, the borders will be closed and the corrupt will be imprisoned. Much effort is being made to spare former Saleh staffers and technocrats from the ignominy of genocide against one own people.

Our readers know Yemen as being remarkably divided for such a small place. The Red Sea and Arabian Sea coasts have evolved quite different cultures. The inner towns of the Hadramaut valley, exhibit a different culture than, say, the Zaydi Shi'a of northern As Sa'ada. And we should not forget Socotra, one of the strangest places on earth, with some 600 indigenous species. The Dahlak archipelago is also weird.

The Yemeni opposition is highly diverse, as diverse as is the country. The secular intellectuals who organized the revolt remain in alliance with the shebab, the youth with the electronic communication devices, who directed the movement of protesters. Over the past eleven months, all the elements, from tribes to truck drivers, from university students to housewives, from mullahs to tribal chiefs, have had ample time to talk through differences and to evolve, in waiting, an effective new government. But the Islamists are pushing for more.

Yemen's army is a recipient of funds from Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Britain and the USA. At the moment, Revolutionary Guards keep the protesters from occupying government buildings. The resistance paradoxically does not like or even recognize, Ali Abdullah Saleh's resignation. They want to try him for capital crimes.

Some 150 children have been slain in the course of this conflict.

The anti-Saleh movement does not accept the GCC deal.

Syria -

Today, on Friday, we receive reports that some 14 were killed, seven in Homs, four in a Damascus suburb (Douma?), and three in Hama. The regime shows no sign of letting up. When the protests began some nine months ago, the various Syrian police services had the run of the towns. Then this disappeared, as citizens fought them with sticks and stones. Then the police services used army units to protect themselves from the angry populace, while they searched specific apartments for propest leaders. Now, the army has to go in first, because the opposition now contains several thousand defecting Syrian soldiers and police.

Curiously, Bashar al Asad appeared on ABC TV in the States, interviewed by Barbara Walters. He denied any responsibility for killing some 1250 Syrians. He felt sorry but had no doubts. He denied he had effective power to stop security forces. And he was sure that the opposition is led by armed terrorists.

None of these countries in Arabia are run by one man exclusively. Syria is an idea greater than any individual. The Ba'ath has been demonized by the West. Yet it represents small business owners. It also provides a minimal level of income, a way of distributing careers. Some ten years ago, economic restrictions were gradually lifted. Just two years back, we saw some big Syrian banks become independent, free to lend to whom it will. Some two million Syrians became wealthy as a result of the liberalization of traditional Syrian business acumen.

Children are dying in Homs for lack of heat and food, especially milk. From the very start, we knew the terrible economic costs of revolution. In regard to Syria and Yemen, NGOs and international agencies are afraid to go back in. So we see a collapse in the foreign aid system, just when they are needed the most.

Somalia -

Somalia is one of the 22 countries in the Arab League. It has been at war with itself for a quarter of a century. Just these past few days, we note a sudden up-tick of war. The Shebab have invested northern Mogadisiu with child fighters, while Ugandan and Kenyan troops are fighting to hold on to gains made just these past weeks.

The Kenyans are focusing of the south, Kismayu, and that pressure may have forced the Shibab back up into Mogadisciu. The Americans are involved. Using drones and choppers based on amphibious landing ships, they can intercept the highway between Mogadisciu to Kismayu. But only during the daylight hours.

Recent bombing in Northern Somalia, Puntland, was likely pirate masters warning the moderate government to back off foreign requests to move on the pirates, from land.

Sudan -

War lingers in the Sudan. Last summer saw the division of the country. The oil – the little of which might be there – lies right on the border (Abiye), and it is obvious that North and South Sudan should share the proceeds. Fighting festers in Kordufan, as Black Arab-speaking Muslims attempt to keep the Janjawid out of their homelands.

Palestine, Lebanon, Iraq -

These Arab nations are all divided within themselves, in such fundamental ways, that we do not expect an amelioration of their grievous fates. Sunni and Shi'a confront each other inside the Lebanese government, the Iraqi government and inside the Palestinian societies of Gaza, the West Bank, and East Jerusalem. In each case, there is a non-Muslim element, which may offer ways of escape from civil war.

There exist Christian, Druze and Kurdish factors who might wisely not bet on the fights in Iraq, Lebanon, Syria, and Palestine. The minorities must be protected, and they are generally, either buy the regime or by the democratic opposition.

-JPM

What the Elections Mean: More Focused Discussions

What the Elections Mean: More Focused Discussions

Most everyone saw it coming: the election of moderate Islamists. Backroom dealings bring former foes together. We all hoped that discussions amongst themselves would lead to democracy. Now we know that political wannabes will not alter their core positions. For the clerics, that means rejecting everything Western, be it a tool, a media artifact, or an idea.

The revolutions had nothing to do with Islam or the MB. But like Algeria in 1992, the demonstrations were manipulated, hijacked. That's the fear. In our archive, the reader can find our studies of moderate Islam. Let us turn to the elections.

Egypt -

Big protest demonstrations in Tahrir Square, Cairo, in Alexandria and elsewhere, did not prevent parliamentary elections from going forward to Monday, Nov.28. Now votes are being counted. The Ikhwan Muslimiyya will gain some 43% of the seat (according to our calculation last autumn). In response, Gen. Hussein Tantawi meets with Muhammad Al Baradei. Mr. Al Baradei has been trying to link up with the Ikhwan, since July, 2011. He has had many 'enlightening discussions' with mullahs and muftis. This man who handled nuclear weapon data, enforcing controls, is now handling a fire burning just as brightly: the drive for a country where the shari'a is the basis of all legislation.

Leave it to the Brothers to screw things up yet again. Following Hasan Al Banna, they see every thing, tool, idea, practice coming from the West, as evil. In order for them to come forward, they need to back out of their assumed posture, as eternally at war with Israel, Britain and the USA.

Another problem is that the Brothers, for all their study, do not have access to modern sciences, physical, psychological and social. They do not read the texts critically. They are interested in being seen as pious alongside others. Islam can provide a total experience, 'unpolluted.' That would be fine if they were following Muhammad Qurayshi's precepts and practices at Medina. But of course bad laws broke into the shari'a. Before these alien and destructive laws are removed from the books, Islamic countries will be criticized by the rest of the world. Who wants to get stoned? Or cut the hand off of a repeat shoplifter? And the persecution, demonization, genocide, against other families of Abraham?

Why the terror? The killing of innocents? What verse of what sura justifies and prompts this behavior?

And jihad. There is no theory of war in the Qur'an, but look at them fight.

Washington and other NATO nations are worried that the Islamists are going to come out on top. Curiously, we have never met, in all of our travels, a mullah, mufti or scholar of religions, who could see the Islamic-system' of seven ways of holding land. They just were not trained to use phenomenological analysis to critically 'lift' that system from the early books of Malik ibn Anas, Numa, Ahmed ibn Hanbal, Al Mawardi, As Suyuti.of their key terms.

You can check out the innards of a curious book entitled “A Phalanx of Lies: How Falsehoods Bedevil Peace in the Middle East and Central Asia. Here we go at fundamentalist here in the USA, in Israel and in Islamic countries. We know which passages from the Torah, the New Testament and the Qur'an they are using to justify and guide their genocidal urges. Why?

When people get so poor they go into survival mode, dying off early, they'll cling to the steady hand of the local cleric, who provides something the West cannot. Even the Egyptian state cannot provide services for a third of its people, a vacuum the Islamists fill. This is their proper place, and should be supported. Together, secular and sectarian could and should provide all kinds of services. Education is not a service. Egyptian children should learn about Islam and other religions. Will the Islamists be involved? Maybe as students. Only rarely is a mullah trained in modern social sciences, or even how to read a text. Symbols get taken for sign-posts: the little mind sees a big pattern. Hence the childish extreme beliefs about Islam, that it involves wearing robes and being seen in the mosque. If our attention gets stuck in form, irrelevant aspects, like how long my beard should grow, or dominance over women, then there is not enough attention left to ferret out the practical, useful core truths.

The Salafis and the fundamentalists, Shi'i or Sunni, claim to find everything in the Qur'an. They'll kill you if you say the book was written by a human. Of course such reverence for a book is the sin of shirk, of associating God with another person or thing. The Qur'an was pieced together a half century after the prophet's death. The first written biographies of the prophet (Sira) were written some 160 years after his death. All those stories about Muhammad – most have grains of truth.

Readers are invited to log on to www.middleeastspeculum.blogspot.com to find therein, two papers. One, “Islam under the Knife: Reform Brings Power” shows how obnoxious inhumane laws wormed their way into the shari'a. They are: stoning, the cutting off of hands and gouging out of eyes, the repression and control of women, persecution of non-Muslims, terror, jihad, genocide.

Last week, SCAF (Supreme Council of the Armed Forces) led by Hussein Tantawi 'the Sphinx,' suggested that elections for a prime minister be held this coming summer. He also has been conferring with many technocrats, generals and commodity suppliers. Al Azhar sheikhs should be discrete and not jump into street Islam.

Tunisia -

Like the MB in Egypt, the An Nada party may have an ax to grind. I remember way back in 1985, an Amnesty International meeting where some twelve of us met two Moroccan human rights representatives. We were to defend several Islamists in prison, but the two educated Moroccans exhibited an authentic fear. We kept arguing for the immediate release of two clerics, but AA in Tunis was not pleased. “These street clerics are not educated. How can you rule, or even play it straight, unless you were educated? “

He has a point there. In regard to the 'conflict crescent,' the emergence of a nuclear stand off, one better play straight. In Egypt, Tunis, Yemen, Bahrain, Syria, the protesters are a fraction of the populace. Yet educated citizens remain vigilant. The new constitutions will not abrogate secular civil and criminal codes. Family law may suffer. If only the shari'a were purged of the 'laws' like stoning and the cutting off of hands, persecution of non-Muslims, enforced supervised prayer, the demonization of other faiths, terror and jihad. The Qur'an has no theory of war. The high author, channeled through M., addresses the consequences of war: the care of widows and orphans, prisoners of war. It never say “Attack before they attack.” In no place does the Qur'an say “Go attack and kill.” There are three verses – one liners with exclamation marks – urging his squad of soldiers to “attack them (the non-believers) everywhere. If they resist, slay them where they stand, but if they surrender, let mercy guide your actions.” There is also a hadith where Muhammad says: “If violence breaks out, find out who started it, then attack him.”

The Brothers are winning over young men in the poor suburbs, and outside Tunis, in Sousse, Tebessa, Sfax, Kasserene and, of course, Kairoun. An Nada is national movement, still expanding, and now in office. Their leaders have some education. As they learn about the Tunisian people these high muftis slough off the carapace of identification, and slither from one huge problem to another. But the rest of the country are educated Muslims, who see no contradiction between Islam and democracy. Foolishly, most cleric argue and work against this modernization of the code. The competency of a legal system depends partly on how it reforms itself, from decade to decade.

I remain hopeful that the shari'a will be purged of its alien parts, to base itself on the precepts and practices of Muhammad at Medina and Mecca. And so be compatible with international norms and laws.

Algeria -

One of many curious aspects of Algeria is the ability of government and private companies to devise and install, power and desalination plants, highly specialized industries, all supported by other industries. This money was enriching an elite, but that elite required complete competency in these critical endeavors. Riots originated in Tindouf in June 2010, and infected Algeria. Self-immolations started with Tuareg Sahrawis protesting Morocco's annexation of their country, then spread to the suburbs of Algiers, and from there leaped Libya the armed forces and intel police.

Libya -

The same mixing and study of actual conditions needs occur in Libya. 'Experts' like Qaddafi himself, saw the Cyranaica as a blood exiswtential enemy. That rivalry goes back to 800 BCE. (Tripolitania was a Phoenician colony, Benghazi and Cyrenaica a Greek one.) Thank God that many other places exist in Libya, so to mitigate the inevitable rivalries between east and west. The Fezzan is determined to retain a long-suppressed independence, vital to nomads (even if they live in small towns).

My research assistant called my attention to videos of the last minutes of Qaddafi's life. As they lifted him from the truck, Qaddafi, face bloody, was smiling like a surprise child.

Palestine -

We have heard this from two of our Palestinian Arab friends: “OK, Israel, you have won. We surrender. Now there is only one big country, and we naturally seek full equal status before the law.”

This is the infamous one-state solution, never really achieved, either by the Israelites, the Judeans, or

by the eight imperial administrations, from Middle Egypt, Canaan (Phoenicia), Assyria, Babylon, Persia, Macedonian, Seleucid/Ptolemy Greek, Roman, Byzantine, Turk, Norman, Mameluke and Fatimid, Seljuk and Ottoman empires, the Brits and the Americans.

Such is the racial and sectarian discrimination, taught to their children at an early age, using the scripture in perverse ways, to engender hatred of the other Abrahamic brother, that we cannot see a successful 'one nation approach.' In Gaza, there are some 3,000 warriors ready for suicide attacks. Another 3,000, Shi'a, sit in bunkers in southern Lebanon. They now rule Lebanon, its parliament and the executive. Will they sacrifice themselves for the marji'? (Twelver Shi'a clerical establishment, most in Iraq and Iran, but also in Lebanon.) Many Palestinian Sunnis are also given weapons to fight.

Curiously, yet typically, the Israelis cut Palestine's own money stream, but it had no effect on the Gazan people and regime. On Dec. 2, the Israelis announced they were opening the money taps, money that belongs to the Arabs.

No contact between Arab West Bank and Gazans means they'll further polarize. The border with Egypt is now open, but where does that get you? Hunted down like dogs by Bedouin working for both the Israelis and the Egyptians?

Maybe the one-state solution should be given legs and wings and let fly. The religious Jews, following the Torah, will not like sharing holy places. And that land, reading from the bible, stretches from the Nile to the Euphrates. Of course this is all nonsense. As an archaeologist and anthropologist specializing in the Middle East, North Africa and Central Asia, who worked in the back rooms of museums (the Rockefeller), there is no record or artifacts backing up this historical expansion.

Israel -

The Jewish state is also a Muslim state. The supreme court of Israel trains its own people in Arabic and they study the early shari'a texts, Malik, Numa, ibn Hanbal. Most Israelis judges speak and read Arabic, and they routinely use the shari'a and fiqh to adjudicate in cases. Most pertain to proterty that had, long ago, been 'dedicated forever' to some social purpose. These are the waqf (auqaf pl) properties, the administration of which is the responsibility of the local cleric(s).

Israel had its Spring also, a series of demonstrations and occupation. But that broke up after Gazan terrorists ambushed an Israeli tour bus, killing eight. Some five Egyptian soldiers were then killed by an Israeli helicopter, causing an attack on the Israeli embassy in Cairo. The government and army seems to have woken up. Of course the Sinai has been a hotbed of crime and terror.

Israel would like to recruit Arab Bedouin to run ops into Sinai. So, too, the Egyptians. There are still some UN post strung along that border. Foolishly, Israel is forcing its Bedouin into government-controlled settlements, using money incentives. I've traveled amongst Israel's Bedouin, and they are harmless. They graze their animals on land no one else uses. In actual fact, they are being removed from the land. I remember seeing camel caravans on the move to the Old City (1978).

If Jerusalem really were sacred land, it would be shared, easily. The destiny of Israel and Arab Palestine is to become nations amongst other nations. History has many examples where and when two nations merge to colonize each other. Nomad and settled folk often worked out arrangements. This was the Neolithic achievement that made possible civilization. Abraham, Moses, Jesus, Muhammad – all knew it. They were not revolutionaries bring in new universal law codes, as much as traditionalists you sought to retrieve from the past, old life ways bound by shared agreed-upon laws and norms.

Today, the US asks Israel to engage in diplomacy to retrieve relations with Egypt and Turkey. Diplomacy requires some give, as well as take, and this the Likud will not agree. Why? Because the hard-lined fundamentalist rabbis are using scripture as both justification and as a blueprint. (See Exodus 23: 23-32. That's the script they're using. Note that is calls for a gradual conquest, a slow-motion genocide.

Syria -

The Ba'athi regime of Al Asad rejoices in the support it's receiving from the Russians, the Chinese, the North Koreans and the Vietnamese. UN sanctions are limited. The Arab League is in a state of deep indignation at the slaughter of unarmed citizens by Syrian police and military. Everybody, it seems, is trying to prevent a sectarian civil war. But the regime is up against the wall, like a rat cornered in a dark space. Where is it getting its money to pay its 3 million employees?

All spring and summer and autumn we were very pessimistic that peace would return to Syria anytime soon. But now I'm tracking indications of exhaustion and stress, not just amongst specific urban populations, but amongst the 16 active organs and agencies perpetrating genocide against their own citizens. Like any siege, exhaustion leads usually to a request for mercy.

Yemen -  

Some seven killed in Ta'iz on Dec.2,, probably free army soldiers and Islamists resisting the new state army. That army is still commanded by Ahmed Saleh. His father, president Ali Abdullah Saleh, has thrown in the towel and migrated once again to Saudi capital Riyadh.  Such an ignominious defeat must depress all his friends and family who hold large junks of money and power.

A sudden steep learning curve for the opposition, who want Saleh and his sons tried in court. There are some ten elements on the street that need be factored in to any analysis.: the liberal, secular, educated leadership; the shebab or youth, with electronic media; the clerics, with their congregants, usually the young toughs;  labor unions and socialists and communists; the tribes; professional associations; women's groups. School children; university students; disaffected army and police.

Can these folks get it together to make a new Yemen?



United Arab Emirates -

There is much dissent in the UAE. The Bedouin gripe, the mullahs scheme, the majority non-native population is suppressed if not oppressed. Even the super-rich bitch as if they are victims. Many are, in Dubai, where property is still sold for twice its worth.. But the economy is damn good, so it perplexes his majesty, president Al Khalifa, that anyone should feel bad.. It must have been him who felt so insulted by what opposition members put out in the airwaves, that they sentenced a score to prison terms 'for insulting the government.

UAE has a parliamentary upper house, some forty members, working with the prime minister M. Rashid Makhtoum. He also presides over the Council of Ministers.

Bahrain -

The tragedy of the Bahrain spring was the manipulation of the educated demonstrators by unseen clerical 'hands.' This threatened to bring in Iran. The occupation of Pearl Square turned into a riot, an occupation of a vital shared space, so drew fire. There's no excuse for that, of course.

Before the Pearl Square occupation, the ministers were trying to draw in responsible Shi'a. But any Shi'a MP had to obey the soft-power dictates of the marji'oun (Iran'Iraq's clerical establishment and hierarchy).

As Iran prepares its bomb and ballistic missile, word has been relayed to the Bahrain leaders, that their country will not survive an attack on the American 5^th Fleet in Manama harbor. So, in the years to come, I see the Americans being asked to leave. The Americans can always come back if trouble develops.

Iraq -

The last American soldiers will be leaving Iraq in just three weeks. The Pentagon wanted to keep some eight big bases in the country, but Iraq simply threatened to sue American offenders in Iraqi courts. That was enough to get the Americans to cut and run.

The Shi'a in the top offices are not sharing power, except with the Kurd Talebani, who is now pro-Iranian. The various Sunni intel services are gearing up for a secret war. How unfortunate that Iraq may not recover...She's open for business, though. Oil, gas, dates, AK-74s, RPGs. They all go together. Too much body armor. Where's Ayyad Alawi?

-John Paul Maynard

The author is the moderator/instructor for the online discussion group 'Islamic civilization' hosted by the Graduate Alumni Association, Harvard University.

Islam and Democracy الإسلام والديمقراطية

الإسلام والديمقراطية

Islam and Democracy

How can Muslim clerics claim that democracy is anti-Islamic? This is true neither in the spirit or in the letter of the law.

Amongst the bedouin, sheikhs are generally elected; the sheikh keeps his tent open to the poorest petitioner. During his many consultations, he will often ask for a show of hands. The first rashidun (rightly-guided) kaliphs – Abu Bakr, Omar, Uthman and Ali – were all elected by the ulema. Muhammad must have told them to do that before he died, for he often used consultative assemblies in Medina, which included Christians and Jews from some three tribes, and sometimes both men and women. The ulema are the learned elders of the community. Muhammad commissioned no clergy. He also said: “Government must consult with the people at every step.” Finally, his laws promulgated in Medina gave basic rights to the weakest - for captured prisoners, women, orphans, travelers and non-Muslims. These laws of course are often violated.

The roots of law in the Middle East go back to the Neolithic, when farming and sheherding communities learned to coexist and prosper. Each produced what the other needed, and long-distance trade required such cooperation. Civilization was to grow out of this. Nomads were instrumental in most empires right down to the Ottomans. The rifle ended that. But the bedouin still ruled outside the habitable zones. Urban rule usually did not extend outside a city's walls.

Westerners err in thinking that the shari'a represents authoritarian thinking. Hardy. The early jurists - Malik, Numa (Abu Hanifa), Ash Shafi'i and ibn Hanbal were all persecuted by the Abbasid authorities, because they would not use the law for political purposes, to harm people.

Scroll back to three issues and you'll find a list of seven steps, from ceasefire to election, which charts the progress of a successful revolution. Note the inner search stage, where all the law codes are laid out, all the constitutions, then assessed and assembled by a group of electors representing the various constituent groups. This is a tough task for any nation, given the trauma, the long reign of un-democratic regimes, the lack of education and the genocidal imperative of vilification. What is a poor takfiri to do?

Secular educated people globally fear the re-emergence of Muslim Brothers and Salafis. Both are taught to hate everything western, particularly western ideas. Though they are Sunnis, long suffering, they look to the judge-led theocracy of Islamic Iran as an exemplar, something to aim for – total control.

Democracy admits the Islamists into its big tent. But what then? Since Islamic schools traditionally teach nothing applicable to today, clerics and their students cannot serve as high officials in offices requiring scientific expertise, accurate decisions.

Religious fundamentalists amongst the Jews, the Christians and the Muslims, have long resisted any accommodation with international norms. Few study in any depth the sciences required to assess the scriptures, and to put them in a context by which they might be understood. Once a text is deemed sacred, it can't be changed. It can't be criticized. This leads to people using it as a recipe or a blueprint for conquest and genocide.

This lack of any social science means that the clerics cannot know their religion(s) and history, nor interpret them correctly, as the scriptures are cryptolectic. The true believers claim God composed these writings, but then, why would He want to deceive us, or make grammatical errors, or prompt genocide or suffer so many egregious contradictions? Is our God a mean one who arbitrarily consigns innocent populations to eternal hell (as so many believe) or is it a benevolent God who loves all Her children?

The fingers of man are all over these books. The Qur'an was not assembled till some five decades after Muhammad's death; then just pieced together. The 24 books of the Torah all come from different places, different perspectives. One book may have several authors, often competing. Hence the contradictions. In short, Judaism has had many interpretations. The New Testament, with its genocidal final book of Revelation, only survives in demotic Greek – a dumbed down version of Homeric and Hellenic Greek. The gospels sometimes contradict each other.

Islamic laws which most everyone hates – stoning, the cutting off of hands, persecution of non-Muslims, repression of women, terror, jihad – none of these laws are a part of Muhammad's revelation and practice at Mecca and Medina. Yet ignorant 'Muslims' will die to enforce these additions. We think it is time to resurrect the authentic Muslim reform tradition, initiated by Jalal ad Din Al Afghani in the mid 19^th century. Let the clerics find their place in service to their flocks. If they act to seize power, these terrorists use a law much higher (to them) than commonly-held civil or international laws and norms. Scripture is above criticism, and now, once again, the holy books are being used to prompt and justify genocide.

Egypt should do what the Ottomans did - forced the leading clerics from all sects to reside in Istanbul. There they got to know each other. There were few cases of genocidal sectarianism. The Turks fought long wars on its eastern borders against the Safavids, but Palestine was peaceful, if poor, for some four hundred and thirty years.

We are advising select muftis and social scientists of the utility of using the Ottoman recension of the shari'a – its modern scientific re-casting, in detailed, produced by Tanzimat reformers in the 19^th Century.

American Christian Zionists are terrified at the re-emergence of Islamic North Africa. They don't hesitate to betray their own co-religionists by bashing the Christian Palestinians and taking sides against the Christians in Syria. The Palestinians have been split in two, making their liquidation or 'transfer' easy. Israel is determined to become a Jewish state, which means that its annexation of Arab Palestine, requires 'transfer.'

In fact, an Israeli friend-of-a-friend called our office asking me to query my Arab contacts, how they would feel is they were each given a villa on the sea in the UAE. “Arab Palestine will always be stolen land, instigating war, terror and hate.”

The American government has an immense bureaucracy dedicated to fighting Islamic extremists. But what about militant Jewish extremists? Or the Christian ones? If the commander of the Israeli army units in the West Bank says publicly that the rampaging settlers, Jewish American fanatics, led by rabbis, are terrorists, pure and simple; if the Israeli army views the settlers that way, then why do Americans fall to the right of the IDF? Why back (or acquiesce in) the (slow) destruction of Israel's twin, Arab Palestine? The mullahs in Gaza also talk of a genocidal program.

“Do not use my name to cause harm. If you do, I will punish you especially severely.” -Exodus 20:7

Egypt -

As elections on 28^th of November draw nigh, Tahrir Square erupts again in mass demonstrations , prompting violent responses by the authorities. Some forty have been killed over the six days, from Nov. 17 to the 25^th. The protesters have been fighting back, with stones and petrol bombs. The army is using rubbed coated metal bullets on its own people. Why?

The demonstrations want to put the armed forces under civilian control. Back in February, we saw the army intervene to stop police attacks on innocents in Tahrir Square. There grew then an agreement between the army and the Muslim Brotherhood.

Some interpreted this unholy alliance as a joint bid to exclude the secular, educated people, those who originated the protests.. In any case, these cozy relations between the Brothers and the Army did not endure half a year. It became clear to all Egyptians that the leadership of the armed forces, the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces (SCAF), was dragging its feet of democratic reforms.

Field Marshall Hussein Tantawi did not help much by being silent. After three days of rioting in Cairo, Alexandria, Aswan and Suez, he announced that presidential elections will be pushed up, to 2012. Yet as of this date, he has not called off those units which are battling their own citizens inn the side streets around Tahrir Square.

In Cairo, young, secular, educated people appear to leading the demonstration, as they did back in January. Fundamentalist Muslims, distinguished by their dress, seemed to have been excluded. Many marchers have expressed concern about their protest movement being manipulated by the Muslim Brotherhood and Salafis.

But all expect the MB to win a plurality. Educated, urban populations went back to Tahrir just to protest the ascension of the Islamists and its alliance with the SCAF, to cut off any democracy. But Cairo and Alexandria are just districts. Outside, in the delta and up the Nile, amongst the fellahin, the Islamists rule.

Educated people shudder at the thought of making the shari'a the basis of family, civil, criminal and economic law. This new Islamist-led government will first gain a working majority, through coalition building with much smaller parties, then promulgate a constitution inimical to the rights of women.

As Monday's parliamentary elections occur on Nov. 28^th, Tahrir Square remains full of demonstrators

We believe elections will go ahead. Here is a list of coaltions and parties: Visit them.

Coalitions 

Democratic Alliance for Egypt
Egyptian Bloc
Islamist Bloc (Alliance for Egypt)
Revolution Continues Alliance

Parties

Egyptian Current Party
Egyptian Social Democratic Party
Democratic Workers’ Party
Free Egyptians Party
Freedom and Justice Party
Al-Karama Party
National Progressive Unionist (Tagammu) Party
National Democratic Party Offshoots
Al-Nour Party
Socialist Popular Alliance Party
Al-Wafd Party
Al-Wasat Party

Syria -

Exclusion from the Arab Union did not halt Al Asad's gruesome inhuman assaults against Syria's people. More and more soldiers are defecting. The civilians now have some protection: the secret police cannot move so freely, and need constant army escorts. Some 50 Syrians were killed just in the past few days. Some were Syrian soldiers fighting for the regime. Defecting Syrian army personnel are providing some security to protesters, and to neighborhoods being raided. It seems the Syrians have learned from the Americans, with night raids, phone intercepts, enhanced interrogation, and the arming of pro-government militia. Iran of course is involved: the collapse of Shi'i Syria would sever Iran's direct contact with its proxies Hizbullah (in south Lebanon), and Hamas (in Gaza). The stakes are very high.

Saudi Arabia -

Two people were killed on the 24^th in the east of the country. There has been a small Shi'i dissident movement in Dhamman, Hotuf , and Mubarraz. Militants use motor-scooters to deliver their target packages. This sporadic low-level resistance worries the royal family: most believe Iran is behind it. These Shi'i Saudi towns also access into Qatar.

Other research indicates a Saudi elite very anxious about Iran. Last month, an agreement was signed with the USA for some $60 billion-worth of weapons.

When war erupted in Libya nine months ago, the price for a barrel of oil rose by almost one third. Everybody blamed it on the jitters: “the market had learned that the economy is based on oil, and that the Middle East might be important.” The speculators get their cut, pushing up prices, as is their intention, as do the oil companies themselves. The Saudi oil minister said the kingdom would raise prices to keep the world price steady. But the Saudi government did not do that, smarting from America's knee-jerk support for Greater Israel.

The Saudi royal family will likely anoint Prince Nayef of the Interior Ministry to be king.  He is a conservative who probably does not comprehend how destructive and divisive are the Wahhabi clergy it funds throughout the world.  Why can't they promote their other native son - Malik ibn Anas?

Yemen -

Ali Abdullah Saleh flies to Saudi Arabia, vowing to give up office and signing an agreement to turn over authority to his vice president. The protesters, encamped at the university, were jubilant. Can they be patient enough to allow for a peaceful transfer of power? Ali Saleh's relatives would have to go, but where to? Saudi? Some five protesters were killed on the 24^th. Why? Because the protesters know that the mere departure of Saleh is just the surface. His people are still in control. Many of them are rather innocent. Many no doubt possess skills that Yemen needs.

We cannot see the intrigues and allegiances of the tribes and sub-tribes. Sunni and Shi'a sects also are players. Socialists and free marketeers also abound.

How to make the transition from riot to office? Behind the scenes, all the various groups have been discussing options and preferences. But tactically, it is the younger shebab, armed with digital devices, which (often) has control over the crowds. As crowds are moved around, in response to army/police operations, secular educated folk worry that their wish for democracy has been hijacked by clerics.

Morocco -

Unrest over last July's constitution: it did not lead to democracy. The regime is intent on hanging on to power. The constitution is not democratic and will not lead to a constitutional monarchy. King Muhammad VI  has reason to keep the portfolios of religion, treasury and armed forces under his sole control. Demonstrations in several cities.

United States -

We'll close with a paragraph taken from Top Secret America: The Rise of the New American Security State, by Dana Priest and William M. Arkin, p.270

“As the Muslim Brotherhood moved to capitalize on the social and political void in Egypt, the most strategically important US ally in the evolving Middle East, Washington's gigantic intelligence apparatus did nothing to warn policymakers, who were completely unprepared to promote a palatable alternative. Top Secret America had become so focused on undoing one terrorist at a time that no one was seeing the big, strategic picture, and that was because, at the bottom of it all, it had grown so big and so unwieldy and no one, still, was actually in charge.”

Erosion of Basic Human Precepts and the Collapse of Conscience

تآكل المبادئ الأساسية للإنسان وانهيار الضمير.

Erosion of Basic Human Precepts and the Collapse of Conscience

"There is no doubt about degeneration: the only question is whether it will terminal." Here we look at the collapse of conscience, all around. Clerics in Iran, Arabia, Israel and the United States all hate each other, and make their congregants hate also. In doing this, they betray their own spiritual precepts. The imagery and narrative of the bible features genocide, an extreme demonization of your neighbor and your cousin (as Jews and Arabs are), serving aggressive state land theft or outright extermination of all those different from you. The Book of Revelation preaches genocide, a big war in Meggido, Armageddin,  against those who do not accept Jesus Christ as God himself.

Today, the most important question is why clerics, men of God, serve the darkest forces known to man - genocide. In Iran, in Gaza, in Israel and the United States, scriptures are being used tochart poklicy. This temptation is part laziness, part delusion. Because the USA backed and still backs, the Israeli settlement of the West Bank of Palestine, many bad things happen in response to that obvious aggression and land theft. Iran is building  nuclear weapons, ballistic missiles, chemical toxins, radioactive devices, plus new prisons to house dissidents.  Foolishly, the Palestinian clerics in Gaza keep proclaiming that they will drive Israelis into the sea, and kill all the Jews, playing right into the hands of the Jewish land thieves. Such genocidal talk is also found widespread in the United States. The clerics there will even talk about it before their congregations, or on the radio, with a flicker of shame.

But victims of such dark forces do not go down easily. If you were stripped of your land and other immovable possessions, you would fight, too. You would also fight if your relatives were blown ujp by terrorist bomb directed at innocent civilians.

This identification with biblical or Qur'anic imagery leads to 'a casual routine genocidal demonization of your neighbor and your cousin,'  Darkness grows in the minds of many clerics, and their people follow.

These extremists always end up fighting their own co-religionists, and their own congregation, because their paths to power are false and ultimately suicidal. Take the case of the United States in 2011. The Libyan civil war prompted jitters in the markets, the price of gasoline went up a third. The Saudis easily could have pumped more crude petroleum, bringing the price of gasoline down from $3.85/gallon back to $2.85, where it was when fighting erupted in Libya. But unhappy with America's long-time acquiescense in Likud's theft of  Arab Palestine, King Abdul-Azziz decided to... just do nothing. The economic fates of some 200 million Americans were sealed. The high oil prices pushed the prices of all commodities up and up.

In Arabia, the clerics are once again pushing scripture as a blueprint for genocide. In the United States, the lead Republican candidates support a war against Iran and will start one if elected 'to save Israel.'  All the Iranians have to do is dump a daily truck load of sea mines, and they'll float into the main channel of the Strait of Hormuz, cutting all tanker traffic. All the world's economies would be drastically affected. But again, scripture is operative.

The bible and the Qur'an include some genocidal passages, which now are being used, not just to justify violence against innocents, but as a blueprint for genocide and occupation. The Torah is actually quite clear: "Do not you use my name to cause harm: if you do, I will punish you most severely."   (Exodus 20:7)

Israel -

We are nearly finished with a 20-page paper entitled “A Phalanx of Lies: How Falsehoods Bedevil Peace in the Middle East.” The paper documents the role(s) of clerics, in Gaza, Israel, Hizbullah, Iran, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and in the USA as well, as they enforce the genocidal passages in their scriptures. All the scriptures feature genocidal passages, directives. This is because proto-states used their religion to make the waging of war possible. War had long been seen as 'poor form' in the Middle East, but today, revenge has replaced restitution.

Usually, secular governments had mitigated this demeaning racism, this vicious disparagement and demonization of those from other religions. But times have changed. Now scripture seems to offer a blueprint for political action, being it the theft of a country, Arab Palestine, or the murderous targeting of innocent civilians by Islamist and secular Arab terrorist organs. The evangelical Christian Zionists in America use the scripture to goad the Israelis on, to seize Arab land and drive those evil people out. The fact that they render life almost impossible for Christian Arabs as well, does not phase them. The bigotry is not just sectarian, but also racial. This is foolish, and a big lie: we are all closely related, come from the same source.

Why clerics get away with promoting, advising, directing, genocidal acts, is best addressed by examining those very early biblical images of the Middle East which float freely in our own divided psyches.

Even if Jewish fanatics manage to slay the other, the land will always remain 'stolen.' And thus cause more terror and war and poverty. 

Israel is of course a Muslim country as well as a Jewish one, but this is may change. Clerics in NYC are talking about 'opening the land' and 'cleansing all of Israel.' Political representation for the Arabs in the Knesset – some 2 members out of 120 – is just symbolic, a token. But still Americans are instructed  that "Israel is the only democracy in the Middle East.” That is simply not true. Arabs have their own traditions of democracy, expressed most locally in the local elections of the bedouin chief. Muhammad successors (the first four caliphs) were all elected. In village councils decisions are made in consultation. The showing of hands, which is voting, is often used.

In the Muslim world, violent Jihadists and terror-planning mullahs have been rolled back just about everywhere. The late terrorist Anwar al Aswlaki believed those Yemeni tribes in the east would protect him.

But why fight Arab terror organs while letting the much stronger Israelis take their land?  Isn't such an 'alliance' counterproductive to Israel?  By acquiescing, are not the Americans hurting themselves?

The destiny olf Israel is not to lord over others,  taking their land. It is to be a nation amongst other nations. That is where prosperity and mental health lies.

Right-wing Jewish settlers are now routinely targeting Arab Palestinians, not just in the West Bank, but inside Israel itself. An Arab mosque in northern Israel was recently burned down. Every time President Obama made a move for peace, these biblical fanatics announced more settlement housing around East Jerusalem and in the West Bank. If you want to see what these crazed mean people do to American Jews who talk of peace with their Arab neighbors, log on to www.massada2000.org.

Observers often mention the right-wing Likud and religious parties as being committed above all to a Greater Israel. International law and humanistic norms are seen as threats, obstacles. Such a naked seizure of land, required force, violence, surveillance. Of course these fanatics: falsehoods, selfishness, short-sightedness, injustice, oppression, the utter demonization of your neighbor and cousin, plus slow motion genocide of their Arab cousins.

The radical Jews enforce these lies: that Israel first developed monotheism. That the orthodox Jews are God's chosen people; that Jews are smarter than others; that clerics represent the human spirit; that scriptures provide morality and historical truth; that the bible is an accurate record of the Canaanite Hebrews; that Jews are the natural leaders of the West; that driving out the Arabs will solve anything; that American politicians are free from prejudice, such as to be an arbiter between Arab and Jews.

Peace talks have been going on and off for some four decades. Israel is about a hundred times more powerful than the Palestinian Arabs, so how can there be any fair, impartial justice through negotiations?

The Americans claim that status – impartial arbiter. Indeed, they have facilitated meetings between Arab and Israeli leaders. The Interim agreement of 1996 was a start, but this was rendered null and void by the Likud bullies led by the great whiner, Bibi Netanyahu. But what can the majority of decent Israelis and American do? The politics of symbolic appeal have led to genocide – terror, eviction from homes, teaching school children to hate – and these fanatics will viciously try to hurt anyone talking of peace.

Racism and sectarian bigotry is rising across the region. All Abrahamic religions revere scriptures that feature, even advise, genocide. Those of other faiths, even of other Abrahamic faiths, are demonized and disparaged – rejected. Why is it that it is the clerics who instigate and justify and even direct this aggression?

Radical fanatic clergy have taken over many mosques as well. All Mid East countries, except perhaps Saudi Arabia, have strong secular traditions; but these enlightened traditions are weakened when right-wing bigots are allowed to seize the commons, steal the debate. They are ,loud and pomp;ous and ignorant of their own scriptures. Nor do they access and build on science. To understand any of the three religions, one needs access to some 12 different social sciences, from evolutionary psychology to comparative religions to history. Physical sciences are needed as well: neuroscience, social neurobiology, pathological psychiatry, genetics. All these sciences have potent lessons, based on truth. They show the religious fundamentalists to be incompetent in their own domain.

A religious group becomes spiritually when it is used to bolster egos and dream. When a religious group becomes exclusive, telling its people that it is the only way to God, or that they are God's chosen, then we know it is a false way, possibly dangerous.

The Israeli government is also moving against the Arab Bedouin. These wanderers have never been much of a problem for the Israelis. But such is the control mania that these 'illegal' non-Jews, the original inhabitants of the land, are being forced to settled down in planned villages which can be watched and controlled. Of course the original Hebrews were nomads, too.

Since Israel is leading the (unthinking) American public, we need examine how the knee-jerk support by Republicans for Israel's annexation of Jerusalem and the West Bank, plays into and validates Al Qaida's accusations about the US – that it is Jewish controlled, aligned with the right-wing Israelis.

Note what happened, however. The Saudi king was supposed to pump more oil to keep prices down, but opted not to do so. So Americans pay $3.50 a gallon when it should be $2.65. The very life of the American people is now challenged.

Remember what God says about all this: “Do not use my name to cause harm. If you do, I will punish you most severely.” That's from the Book of Exodus, 20:7.

Egypt -

Big demonstrations in Tahrir Square in Cairo, against the military's attempts to become the main power in Egypt from here on in. The army is trying to put itself above the law. They forced the interim government and the Supreme Council to utter principles permitting the army to disband parliament, iof it wants. The army also wants command over its own budget. The military has been quiet, but such direct challenges to their undemocratic privileges, have never been tolerated by the Egyptian armed forces.

Syria -

Violence increases with some 73 killed on November 15, 55 on the 18^th, and many more after Friday prayers on the 18^th of November. The Al Asad regime has de-ligitimized itself by firing into its own unarmed citizens. Still, it commands considerable popular support, in Damascus and in Aleppo (Haleb).

The decision by the Arab league on Nov. 12 to evict Syria, caused such vitriole and anguish in Syrian officialdom, that the League opted to give Syria another three days to cease and desist its attacks on protesters, before enforcing the eviction.

The Syrian regime is running out of money by which to pay all its henchmen. For example, over a million Syrians work for various 'intelligence' organs and police. The army is savagely controlled, since the lower ranks are largely Sunni.

Meanwhile, living conditions in Homs, Hama, Latikia, Dera'a, Suweida, Ar Rustan, Deir az Zaur,Ar Rakkah – have deteriorated such that life is challenged. Some of the sanctions prevent supplies reaching the people. Turkey is about to turn off the electricity to northern Syria, which will impact squarely on the loyal upper middle classes of Aleppo. The Syrian regime turned off electricity to Homs and Hama and Dera'a, some six months ago.

The reader can follow the Syrian crisis back to the winter of 2011 by accessing the articles listed on the right margin. You will see how afraid we were, are, that the unrest in Syria will turn into a sectarian civil war.

The protesters in Syria have recently been provided security by defecting soldiers. From what we can determine, these are the weapons used by the opposition (to protect itself), not imports of assault rifles and RPGs from Lebanon by the Muslim Brotherhood. Back in the spring, Al Asad ordered shipments of automatic weapons and ammo to Alewite and Christian communities, to defend themselves. But there are Christians and Shi'a in the opposition movement. No doubt some of those arms are seen today guarding peaceful protesters from the murderous response of the crazed authorities.

Even as the Syrian conflict festers like a wound, threatening to grow into a war, we remain strangely optimistic that Al Asad will eventually stand down his forces. But we find no mystery in the regime's rationale: they really do believe they are up against the Brothers. The Syrian leaders are well aware of the primacy of revenge in their societies. They've killed too many to now stand down. They see their survival is at stake. So any ceasefire agreement would need to have an agreement by the democratic opposition, not to stage occupations or riots or attack or tie up government buildings, while the ceasefire is in effect.

In the posting before the last one, Nov.4, we laid bare the sequence of events that need happen for a protest group to evolve into a functioning democracy.

By John Paul Maynard

The author is, amongst other things, the moderator/instructor for the on line discussion group on Islamic civilization, for the Graduate Alumni Association, Harvard University. He has worked in Israel and Palestine on a variety of projects relating to archeology, land law and theomania. He has also studied in Jordan and Syria, and earlier, in the 1970s, he received a Watson foundation fellowship to study the nomads in Afghanistan, Uzbekistan, Iran and Turkey. His doctoral work is on land law in the Middle East. The author's study of reforms in Islamic law can be read at www.middleeastspeculum.blogspot.org. His translations of Arabic and Persian literature can be found at www.hafizshirazi.blogspot.com.