ثورات العربيThe Arab Uprisings Persist – The Search for Resolutions
Following Friday prayers today, all hell broke loose. Murderous conflict occurs again as police and troops shoot protesters in Libya, Syria and the Yemen. Meanwhile, behind the scenes, in Morocco, Egypt, Tunisia, Lebanon, Jordan, Palestine, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, the Sudan, Djibouti, negotiations continue as concessions are made and new governments are put together. Note we do not mention the Western Sahara and Algeria, as these powerful precursors are in a class by themselves.
Libya -
Today fighting rages in the east and west. Marse al Brega, which is part of the larger Marse Al Buqayrah industrial city, is being fought over street by street in a bizarre industrial setting that mocks the West. For example, there are rows of miniature tract homes, all identical. Many walls and gated areas. Large box buildings and petrol off-loading structures: pipelines, pumping stations and the terminal. The past week saw the retreat of anti-Qaddafi democratic fighters, from their most-western positions, 29 miles east of Sirt (not Surt), back through the Ras Lanuf complex, to Al Adjabiya. Marshalling their forces March 30-31, they attacked back into Al Brega. NATO, which took command of its Libyan operation on March 30, did not appear to provide combat air support to the 'rebels,' although US and French jets attacked Qaddafi positions and armor in the suburbs of Al Misrata.
The democratic fighters of Al Misrata have been battling Qaddafi forces for over 40 days. Long ago they gave up electricity, water and the freedom to walk the streets without fear. The town is strewn with debris. Apparently the democratic fighters used RPGs to prevent Qaddafi snipers from occupying the roofs of buildings. Just where the rebels are getting their supplies, their arms and ammunition, will soon be known (probably just themselves, using their own boats). The city, which hosts some 240,000 people, has an eight mile coastline on which small boats can land and off-load.
I can't quite think of another battle quite so heroic. Except perhaps Zawiya.
But why the emphasis on war? Should not we stress political developments? Already we hear of dialogue between pro- and anti-Qaddafi factions. Then there are the tribes, all 30 of them. (There are actually around 140, but many are just sub-tribes.)
Reports arriving March 31 say Qaddafi's son Saif al Islam, is negotiating with rebel leaders. The first issue must be a ceasefire, and indeed, on April 1, we hear the rebels of Benghazi call for a ceasefire – as long as Qaddafi lets the people to protest without interference. But Qaddafi mocks this. But...
On March 31, we see the defection of three high-ranking Libyan ministers. Musa Kusa (not Moussa Koussa)He has been Libya's foreign minister since 2009. Before that, he was head of Libya's foreign intelligence branch, since 1994. He brings especial knowledge of the most sensitive Libyan 'players,' not just his own government, but the tribes, the People's Congresses, et al.
Libya's UN ambassador Abuzeid Dorda, and Mohamet Abdul Qasim, speaker of Libya's General Peoples' Congress, also defected on March 31. (All somehow got out of Libya to Tunisia.)
As for communications between the tribes, one might discount them, as Qaddafi did. Could these various tribes communicate with each other? Remember what Qaddafi gave his people: electric power 24/7, promotions, roads and automobiles. So such communications do indeed take place: by phone and using cars. Furthermore, the leaders of the tribes do know each other, through the Peoples' Congress. So we see a possibility of the tribes becoming effective 3rd forces, able to mediate between pro- and anti-Qaddafi forces, and bring peace.
The largest tribe is the Warfallah, with over one million members. Another tribe, the Magariha, has a reputation for violence and bloodshed, stemming from its very strong and long association with Al Qaddafi. The biggest tribe around Tripoli is the Al Misrata, which explains why that city can hold off the Qaddafi armor and artillery and death squads. The Al Awajila is a desert tribe, Berber-speaking, which has recently vowed to protect the oil fields and pumping stations. Then there are the mild-mannered Farjan tribals, scattered all through coastal Libya, from Al Ajdabiyah through Sirt to Tripoli. Far to the south, in the Fezzan, one encounters the Kawar, 15 small tribes, all Berber speaking. Qaddafi often emulated them in his many camping retreats in the far south. Another Berber group is the Al Tubo. They inhabit Sabha, Kufra and Gatroon. The Toureg Berbers, once very loyal to Mu'ammar, have defected to the democrats. As for Qaddafi's own tribe, they've long been perturbed that their wayward son "killed too many Libyans." In Sirt one finds Qaddafi's most symbolic structures - mock parliaments (Peoples Congresses), the Green Book museum. Qaddafi's tribesmen have been favored, but rising expectations, not deprivation, triggers revolutions. The Qadhafa have traditionally been in charge of the air force. The pilot who flew his MiG into Khamis Qaddafi's lair, was likely a member of the Al Qadhafa tribe, angry that these wayward sons should stain the tribe with the blood of Libyan civilians.
Curiously, we hear from both the Benghazi democrats and various European leaders, that existing oil contracts will remain in force. But then what? Will the Libyan patriots resume Qaddafi's gross over-pricing of the oil? Qaddafi did the same trick again and again, effectively multiplying the price of world oil by some 7-9 times. He kept charging his customers 'premiums on the premiums,' because Libyan fuel is of such quality, and because Libya is close to European ports. And every time Qaddafi hiked his premiums, the oil companies – bless their hearts – jacked up their prices! This went on and on, from 1971 to the present day.
It seems that the Europeans have to fight for their energy. NATO attention has shifted to Al Misrata, where British jet have been blowing up Qaddafi armor. A Turkish ferry evacuates some 200 wounded.
Syria - Day of the Martyrs
Following Friday prayers, violent demonstrations broke out in some 7 Syrian towns and cities. Worshipers coming out of Friday prayers were shot dead (at least 10), in the suburb Douma, while in the south, Dar'a erupts in a huge protest, countered by police and army using water cannon and much tear gas. Latakiya, Halab, Homs, Banias, As-Suwayda all saw intense, well-organized demonstrations. The town of Sanamen, near Dara'a, saw violent clashes today. For the first time, out east, amongst the Kurds, there occurred angry demonstrations in the towns of Qamishli, and Amuda.
Since the center of the rebellion has been Dar'a in the far south, near Jordan, we suspect the Brothers, the Ikhwan, the Muslim Brotherhood, based in Jordan, to have played a role in radicalizing the crowd, especially after Assad's goons attacked the mosque, while protesters were sleeping, killing 20.
Bashar Assad has granted some concessions, then went back on the most important one: the end of martial law. He did say he would investigate the mass-slaughter of protesters (over 70), while setting up 'review committees.' Some 160 Syrian citizens have been gunned down, not including the 300+ detained and disappeared.
When the Syrian police responded with violence, the protesters upped their demands to include the resignation of the government. The median – what can happen – is that the ruling Ba'ath party admit other parties and hold nation-wide elections.
Yes, that is the issue, a practical, reachable goal: a multi-party Syria.
Syria has its dark side. It has forged an alliance with Iran, Iraq, the Shi'a in Lebanon, now in power, and with the Palestinians. They sponsored many radical groups, not all terrorists. Years ago, the Syrian intelligence services killed some 282 Americans, many Marines and the entire CIA station. However....
More Americans may have been saved by the Syrians in recent years. They look and talk radical, but are determined to root out the dumbed down miscreant MB and its grotesque off-shoots, like Islamic Jihad and Al Qa'ida. In Syria, the MB appear to be the only party (secretly) in opposition, because other parties have all been banned. In any case...the whole world owes something to the Al Assad family. They kept Syria from becoming a fanatic Muslim nation. The Nasiris, also called Alawites, are a Shi'i minority. Like the Ishma'ilis, they are secular people. They see no contradiction in integrating western technology and costume, with their Islam. Not so the Brothers. They hate everything western, and command the deaths of all Shi'a, all non-Muslims and all secular Muslims. They are the instruments of reaction. In short the West owes the Ba'ath government some respect, as it has engineered a peaceful though corrupt and sometimes frightening, multi-sectarian society. At least till now.
Since both pro- and anti-Assad demonstrators are correct, all the more reason to believe that compromise might be had, should Bashar and his advisers grant other political parties the right to compete in open elections. This cannot happen all at once, so it necessary to think in steps – it can only happen is both parties proceed step-by-step in sincere negotiations. Can that happen? We don't know.
The Yemen -
Demonstrations have grown and persisted, over the past two weeks, so that today, after Friday prayers in Sana'a, we see a huge protest involving some 100,000 near the university, while another protest demonstration, in support of President Saleh, was centered on Sana'a's Tahrir Square. The police have been keeping the two sides apart. That's a new role for the police/army, seen during Egypt's revolution, and now in Jordan.
This persistent protests, sustained over weeks, might seem a disaster, especially considering the estimate 140 who were killed, not so much by the police, but by unidentified pro-regime vigilantes, firing down from roofs. But there are signs of hope.
Like Assad, president Ali Abdullah Saleh has some right on his side. He has long labored to keep the Yemen together. His forces struggle against al Qaida of the Arabian Peninsula in the mountains to the east, while trying to engage the Zaiydi Shi'i north, with its royal family. That Yemen royal family is the legal possessor of the planet Mars, having filed the correct papers. You get the picture.
Always we must support minorities in the Middle East, as they preserve ancient secrets. And also because they are often under threat by the dumbed-down MB and its affiliates. Iran, which suffers a gross perversion and the ultra-dumbing down of Islam, nevertheless protects its minorities, with the possible exceptions of the Balouch and the Qashqai nomads. Iran also is persecuting Christians, the Bahais, giving their leaders 20-year jail terms. Jews, Christians and atheists are also suppressed.
Though small in area, the Yemen contains a cornucopia of cultures, from the Hadramaut in the south east (connected to South Asia), to the Tihama on the Red Sea littoral, to the mountains south of Sana'a, to Ta'izz; the city port of Aden, and the weird vertical cities of Shibam and Shabwa in the eastern badlands – all are distinctive cultures which somehow have to co-exist.
President Saleh keeps re-arranging his cabinet, trying to stay in office till 2013, in order to avoid 'a time bomb' (in his words). Like the situation in Syria, the government does have some credibility, not least in its secular spirit. The Yemen is a strange world. Like Afghanistan, it has no middle class.
Every Arab nation has an educated secular class, long suffering, and, as small as they may be, they are the true vanguard. But they ward off repeated attacks and intrigues of Muslim hotheads, usually the Brothers. We recall the verse: "There is no fanaticism in Islam."
The Brothers are, as we know, a deviation from the genuine Muslim tradition of reform (running up through Jalal ad-Din Al-Afghani, through M. Abdu to Rashid Rida, only to grossly mutate into a wretched deformed, still-birth, the dumbed-down MB, following Sayyid Qutb.They license themselves to reject everything, every idea, that is western; they are sworn to kill non-Muslims, Shi'a and secular Muslims. Obviously they need cough up and spit out that sick mission statement.
Standing back and looking at the conflict afflicting the whole Muslim world, one might say this: peace will not come till the actual ways and practices of Muhammad at Medina, gain as much publicity and study, as Islam the religion. Islam the religion formed later, as did Islamic law. The clergy usurps power then moves against Muhammad's teaching in these ways: land law (the men own everything), in relation to women and children, in how non-Muslims (particularly Jews and Zoroastrians) are to be treated, plus the Qur'anic injunctions against terror, violence, and the ridiculous gross abomination of jihad against not just non-Muslims, but Shi'a and secular Muslims.
I've talked with Brothers and can tell you they all claim to follow Muhammad, and when one cites the differences between his ways, and the laws of the religio0n, they shrivel up as if you struck them in the head or heart. The Brothers works locally, helping the destitute at times, but no Brother can hold high political office till he spits out the gross perversions of Sayyid Qutb.
At the same time, the West really has to change its view of the Muslims. In many important ways, they are more advanced. All practice 'adab, a gentile literary ethic, a grace and etiquette. 'Adab leads most Arabs and Persians and Turks, to talk politics in a non-confrontational way. The average educated Arab, male or female, probably spends 3-5 times more time talking politics than his American or European counterpart.
While it is impossible to find on earth a society adhering in detail to Muhammad's practices in Medina, many rural towns and villages preserve aspects of the Mr. Qurayshi's Medinan 'amal. For example, in Islam poorest person, the smallest vendor, is guaranteed by law to have a place at the market place, a simple set of regulations which we'll not discuss here, but which completely outclasses the state-heavy energy-intensive industrial economies.
The West grows out of the Dutch revolution, the 80-years war, which somehow, against great odds, brought into being, the first modern financial empire. The Dutch learned to invest in each others' projects, to spread risk. The wealthy held shares. Then the system evolved in London, largely as a result of Dutch money, and then after WWI, to New York.
But the simplest Muslim has long learned to hold shares, even as a child, in everything from long-distant trading ventures, to the ownership of homes. But of course, today, the men own almost all the homes in Muslim lands, which is not Islamic, as defined and legislated by M.
Jordan -
After Friday prayers, rival rallies occurred in Amman, with the police moving in between them, to prevent clashes. A regrettable polarization is developing between secular and Islamic. Here the educated people are fighting the dumbed-down religion proffered by a venal clergy: the Muslim Brothers are over-represented. The Palestinian camps are also split. The protesters are calling for the release of prisoners.
Palestine -
Daily combat is occurring on the northern borders of Gaza. Hamas cannot control jihadist groups bent on killing Israelis. Meanwhile, secular Palestine and sectarian Gaza are studying proposals for re-integration. The aims of these two, however, are incompatible. Hamas wants a theocratic government. They are card-carrying MB, and as such, can only subscribe to a subterranean self-styled anti-western, anti-Semitic ideology.
Bahrain -
Security forces are going door to door, raiding homes at night, roughing up suspected protesters. Protests ended on March 16. What began as a distinctly non-religious educated vanguard, was usurped by clerics and their agents, many just teenagers.The protest turned into a Shi'a/Sunni existential struggle. Some 20 ordinary people have been killed since protests began in Feb. 14th.
Saudi Arabia -
Saudi police and GCC border units are still in Manama, Bahrain. The Saudis are scared, scared that Iran is manipulating their own Shi'a. The tussle in Bahrain seems to have drawn in elements of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards. Though western analysts tend to see Saudi fears as excessive, Saudi intelligence is on the trail of repeated attempts to land Iran-trained Shi'a subversives on its eastern coasts using speed boats. The revolutions have drawn into focus the emerging Saudi-Iranian rivalry.
Egypt -
Protesters occupied Tahrir Square again today (Apr.1). They want the leaders of the previous regime to be tried for corruption and abuse of power. Mubarak has been prevented from leaving Egypt. So have many others. There is some evidence that dirty deals are being made, being an un-reformed Muslim Brotherhood, and secular types looking for local control. The army sweeps them up. The army calls the shots in Egypt, for another four months, at least.
Our next issue will be published Friday, April 8, some eight hours after prayers end in Arabia. Stay tuned. Bookmark this page. We welcome comments. Thank you.
Longer studies on Islam can be found at http://middleeastspeculum.blogspot.com.
Speculum means mirror in Latin, but 'mirror' is the 4th masdar (verbal noun) of the verb ra'a, to see, which is mira'a – 'a thing one peers into.' It does not come from the Latin mirabilus, 'a wonder,' as the English dictionaries say. Note the cover-up. Or is it just ignorance of ourselves?
Note: The author has lived and worked in some eight Muslim countries. He is a graduate of the Center for Middle Eastern Studies, Harvard University.
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