تنظيم الديمقراطية في الدول الإسلامية
Egypt – the same urban-rural split characterizes Egypt as well as Tunisia (and Algeria and Morocco). Elections coming up in November will likely favor the Islamists, but again, like Tunisia, the Islamists will be a plurality. Pluralities are curious because they force a kind of fusion of ideologies, philosophies and personnel up and down the ranks. Or such cooperation may fail.
Most Americans still believe that Muslims attacked the Pentagon and the World Trade Center. But the one thing all these terrorist groups have in common, is ignorance of Islam. Many American 'christians' hate the prophet Muhammad and all things Islamic. Their knowledge of the shari'a is limited to laws of stoning, the cutting off of hands, persecution of non-Muslim, the repression and restriction of women, terror and jihad. None of these are Islamic. We know this because we can trace each of these errors – we know where they came from and how they got into Islamic law.(See 'Islam under the Knife', at www.middleeastspeculum.blogspot.com. Scroll down)
Note: Though these governments have sufficient revenue to fund secular services (schools, clinics, hospitals, emergency food and water, burial) the money went to the armed forces, weapons, pensions, and to enriching the leader, his staff, his family and cronies.
Morocco - more protests coming soon, as the kingdom moves too slowly with reform.
Turkey – a devastating earthquake, measuring 7.2 on the Richter scale, hit the cites of Edris and Van, killing over 500. Even after four days, some villages are still cut off. The quake occurred simultaneously with the first winter weather. The Van region is far from Istanbul and Ankara, so we puzzled when the Turkish gov. turned down all outside help. Chalk it up Turkish national pride. (later, outside teams were admitted). Turkey is trying to win a big power status in the region, under the cloak of regional unity – peace with Iran and Syria. Both have proven to be big embarrassments.
Curious thing about the Islamists heading up the government in Turkey: they seem not to have studied the many Ottoman studies of fiqh and the shari'a. We know from our own research, that the Ottomans successfully modernized all those aspects of the shari'a not related to religious services.
Yemen – soldiers loyal to president Ali Abdullah Saleh and dissident general Ali Mohsin and his defecting forces. Unfortunately, people protesting and marching are being 'protected' by Mohsen's forces, which triggers gunfights and civilian deaths. Soon, we think, Saleh will step down, but till he can safeguard himself, his staff and his family and friends, from prosecution by a new government.
How that government will accrue and be ordered, is hard to imagine, because already, all the factions, septs, tribes, labor leaders, intellectuals, socialists, private and public companies, plus the women – are jockeying for power. But before this happens, the shibab, the youth, will retain their decisive influence. These kids feed on angry dumbed-down rap 'music' from the US, and have no inkling to compromise, even with the protesting adults.
Libya – with the death of Mu'ammar Qaddafi and complete liberation of all Libya, the end of fighting, one might expect that the oil brokers and investors, might return the price of gasoline, heating oil and diesel, back to the level they were a year ago. Those prices were 50% less than they are still today.
Saudi Arabia has been pumping extra oil, but the price has been kept artificially high, constituting a huge distortion of the market. But this is not discussed, even though most Americans have to pay this extra surcharge on almost everything they buy. To me, it is the strangest thing I have ever seen in the USA: a total silence as wealth is just sucked away by some 24 future traders engaged in wanton speculation, plus the big oil companies, who never hesitate to exploit a situation to raise prices.
The so-called 'jitters' (insecurity) of the market – all those monied investors and brokers and traders – is perhaps the key factor. But this is very embarrassing. The money people have figured out that 'oil is important' and 'much of it is in Muslim lands' – so they get nervous. Of course they've never studied the Middle East, employing the methods of social science, and fear what they do not know.
A little knowledge is a dangerous thing, especially of the Middle East.
Now for the theme of the week: Organizing Democratic Reform
The Week's Headlines - Oct.21 - Oct. 28
Syria - After Friday prayers, some 170 protests were recorded, all peaceful. Yet the regime's police and army shot dead 37 in the hours after Friday prayers. Most of the victims lived in Der'a, Homs and in Hama. It seems sanctions make no difference: the secret police are as active as ever, and as brutal.
Tunisia - National elections have split the next interim government. The An Nada party took more votes, but not a majority. Even though urban Tunisia is deemed to be the most modern and secular of Arab nations, the bulk of the population live outside Tunis and its suburbs. Thus they are in daily contact with local Muslim leaders. The governments of Tunisia almost succeeded in providing basic services for its people. As in Egypt, the local Muslims provide services the government cannot. The dominance of cities over the villages in the countryside is a chief theme, largely outside people's awareness. But, unlike Europe and North America, the cities are not seen as centers of authentic culture: the culture is safeguarded by a 'purer' rural strain, closely tied to life-ways, featuring native music, art, and trade. That's why Middle East and North African leaders are almost all born in villages.
In Tunisia this week this chasm between urban and rural provoked riots and protests in Sidi Bouzid.Egypt – the same urban-rural split characterizes Egypt as well as Tunisia (and Algeria and Morocco). Elections coming up in November will likely favor the Islamists, but again, like Tunisia, the Islamists will be a plurality. Pluralities are curious because they force a kind of fusion of ideologies, philosophies and personnel up and down the ranks. Or such cooperation may fail.
Most Americans still believe that Muslims attacked the Pentagon and the World Trade Center. But the one thing all these terrorist groups have in common, is ignorance of Islam. Many American 'christians' hate the prophet Muhammad and all things Islamic. Their knowledge of the shari'a is limited to laws of stoning, the cutting off of hands, persecution of non-Muslim, the repression and restriction of women, terror and jihad. None of these are Islamic. We know this because we can trace each of these errors – we know where they came from and how they got into Islamic law.(See 'Islam under the Knife', at www.middleeastspeculum.blogspot.com. Scroll down)
Note: Though these governments have sufficient revenue to fund secular services (schools, clinics, hospitals, emergency food and water, burial) the money went to the armed forces, weapons, pensions, and to enriching the leader, his staff, his family and cronies.
Morocco - more protests coming soon, as the kingdom moves too slowly with reform.
Turkey – a devastating earthquake, measuring 7.2 on the Richter scale, hit the cites of Edris and Van, killing over 500. Even after four days, some villages are still cut off. The quake occurred simultaneously with the first winter weather. The Van region is far from Istanbul and Ankara, so we puzzled when the Turkish gov. turned down all outside help. Chalk it up Turkish national pride. (later, outside teams were admitted). Turkey is trying to win a big power status in the region, under the cloak of regional unity – peace with Iran and Syria. Both have proven to be big embarrassments.
Curious thing about the Islamists heading up the government in Turkey: they seem not to have studied the many Ottoman studies of fiqh and the shari'a. We know from our own research, that the Ottomans successfully modernized all those aspects of the shari'a not related to religious services.
Yemen – soldiers loyal to president Ali Abdullah Saleh and dissident general Ali Mohsin and his defecting forces. Unfortunately, people protesting and marching are being 'protected' by Mohsen's forces, which triggers gunfights and civilian deaths. Soon, we think, Saleh will step down, but till he can safeguard himself, his staff and his family and friends, from prosecution by a new government.
How that government will accrue and be ordered, is hard to imagine, because already, all the factions, septs, tribes, labor leaders, intellectuals, socialists, private and public companies, plus the women – are jockeying for power. But before this happens, the shibab, the youth, will retain their decisive influence. These kids feed on angry dumbed-down rap 'music' from the US, and have no inkling to compromise, even with the protesting adults.
Libya – with the death of Mu'ammar Qaddafi and complete liberation of all Libya, the end of fighting, one might expect that the oil brokers and investors, might return the price of gasoline, heating oil and diesel, back to the level they were a year ago. Those prices were 50% less than they are still today.
Saudi Arabia has been pumping extra oil, but the price has been kept artificially high, constituting a huge distortion of the market. But this is not discussed, even though most Americans have to pay this extra surcharge on almost everything they buy. To me, it is the strangest thing I have ever seen in the USA: a total silence as wealth is just sucked away by some 24 future traders engaged in wanton speculation, plus the big oil companies, who never hesitate to exploit a situation to raise prices.
The so-called 'jitters' (insecurity) of the market – all those monied investors and brokers and traders – is perhaps the key factor. But this is very embarrassing. The money people have figured out that 'oil is important' and 'much of it is in Muslim lands' – so they get nervous. Of course they've never studied the Middle East, employing the methods of social science, and fear what they do not know.
A little knowledge is a dangerous thing, especially of the Middle East.
Now for the theme of the week: Organizing Democratic Reform
Except for Syria, the citizens of Arab countries are busily discussing social and economic and political reform. Only in Libya has a complete regime been swept away. All others are discussing issues and dealing with economic demands. People from very different backgrounds have been meeting, and talent and expertise is pooled.
The overwhelming view held by politically active Arabs is some sort of parliamentary democracy, where elections are held for offices on some four levels – neighborhood sheriff, to village mayor, to one's rep in state, and the state itself, via the PM and his many ministers.
One big difference today is that so many Arabs, women as well as men, are educated. America did not have to trumpet its own version of democracy, because the educated Arab is aware of the various political economies: not just the differences between a prime minister and a president, but various kinds of socialism, Islamism, 'Athenianism,” et al.
It hurts whenever I hear some ignorant mullah or American politician say that Islam is incompatible with democracy. In Arabia, the bedouin elect their leaders. The emirs and sultans must keep their doors open to all members of the community. I have attended meeting in the Middle East and Central Asia, where collective decisions were determined by a show of hands.
Muhammad himself was a democrat. He said: “Government must consult with the people at every step.” The first four caliphs – the rashidun – were elected. Islam has a very strong sense of equality between all people, rich or poor, black or white, literate and illiterate, and yes, men and women. So democracy fits in well and the Arabs need no instructions as to how to configure their governments. Putting together a constitution, on the other hand, might require some international expertise.
All the Arab states have distinct differences, making each revolution rather complex. With this great wave of political activity sweeping over Arab lands and beyond, we are afforded a chance to see the differences between them.
Readers of this publication have been fed a summation of these national characteristics, in abbreviated format. By clicking on the titles in the archive (on the right margin) you can acquaint yourself with how the protests took different courses.
Syria is a gaping flesh wound that just festers. Over 3,000 Syrians have been killed. The populations in 'bad cities'are under continual attack. The revolt is endemic in Homs, Halab, Latakia, Ar Rustan, the Douma suburb of Damascus, Deir az Zaur (out east on the Euphrates), and in the far south, As Suweida and the city which started it all – Dera'a.
Frankly, we were stumped for months and months, seeing no solution. The activists turn down all offers and suggestions coming from their respective regimes. Compromise is not possible, it seems, given the amount of blood shed. A gov. does lose its legitimacy if it turns its weapons on unarmed citizens, so the democratic opposition will not truck with Damascus. “There is no way we can talk it out” said one student from Syria. Bashar and Maher Al Assad will not stop the attacks because they know their very survival is at stake.
As late as last month, we saw no hope for a ceasefire, no less a settlement of issues. But the Syrian regime is running out of money. Sanctions prevent supplies, electronic toys and food from getting through. Foreign accounts have been frozen. Out of all the nations, Syria can count on no true friendship, though ties remain between Russia. China, like Russia, do not like to see autocratic regimes collapse into the chaos of democracy. North Korea supports the Syrian gov., as does Serbia.
Because of these pressures, the Syrians just might be persuaded to cease fire and perhaps talk. Maybe the opposing leaders change their thinking and find that they are both Syrians. So international calls for a ceasefire just might be answered. That call might be from the UN, the USA, the Arab League, the EU, or perhaps from Iran and/or Turkey. Stop all provocative manifestations, and prohibit the police from interfering in illegal demonstrations. Those are the first, basic goals that need be met. We should remember them, for no political process, no dialogue, can come out of the violence. Both sides have been violent: demonstrations turn into riots then the police shoots, as it trained to do.
The Seven (7) Steps to Democratic Government
The first step is the ceasefire.
The second step is to release all the political prisoners.
The third step is to talk, discuss needs, issues, events and endemic problems, across class, gender, professional associations, race, labor unions, religious affiliations, and across the great divide separating the very rich from the very poor.
Step four is to write a constitution,
step five: ratification of the constitution in the new assemblies or in the central divan for the ulama.
Step six: formation of party platforms
Step Seven: elections.
That's the octave of modern state formation. Each 'note' is itself an octave, and each of the smaller octaves are themselves made up of seven elements.
Let us explain, citing an example. We start with a country that has overthrown its leaders, using civil disobedience. Somehow a ceasefire must be effected, and for that to happen, both sides must step down. The process of negotiation, back and forth like a tennis game, can go either way, either building trust, or aggravating the relationship. There is no such thing as the status quo: it's either up or down. Mostly down. So the complexity of getting a ceasefire in place consists of seven activities: from making contact, to recognizing economic and ecological changes, to adapt in order to fulfill material and medical needs, to actually enforcing a ceasefire, to transition into formal talks. And each of these is a complex affair.
We will return to the seven steps in organizing democracies in North Africa and the Middle East next week. We post late every Friday.
By John Paul Maynard
The author is, amongst other things, the moderator/instructor of an on line discussion group on Islamic civilization, for the Graduate Alumni Association, Harvard University.
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