Power Play -

Power Plays

The run of events has set the Middle East scene in motion, so the whole 'table' is spinning.

- Elections in Egypt in two weeks (Nov28)

- Change in the Saudi leadership

- Atrocities in Syria

- a Palestinian bid for enhanced status at the UN

- Israel's release of over a thousand Palestinian prisoners, for one soldier.

- a proactive Arab league, willing to roast a rogue regime

- Russia acts (again) to block sanctions on Syria and Iran

- a $60 billion arms deal between Saudi Arabia and the USA.

- a resurgent PKK, backed by a resurgent Iran

- pending scheduled withdrawal of American forces from Iran and Afghanistan

-  accommodating the Islamists in Tunisia after the election

- women participation in civil disobedience in Israel and Saudi Arabia.

- the breakup of the Yemen, the ancient bridge to Africa.

The Middle East has been tied fast and 'secure' going back before World War One, but is now in motion, as individuals, parties and nations vie for power.

In Egypt, ten months of discourse and negotiation led to no agreement on principle, so we expect the tensions between secular and sectarian to increase. On October 25^th, the Ikhwan al-Muslimiyya (Muslim Brotherhood or MB) breaks its own pledge not to field candidates to over 50% of the available parliamentary seats. Come Nov. 24, the MB will be competing for 77% of the seats.

The Muslim Brotherhood is fighting politically, against organized socialists, women's groups, government mullahs and police, members of the former regime (and the NDP/Wafd party), the moneyed elite, the Copt minority, intellectuals, the press (and other media), but will have no problem reaching a plurality for the simple reason that the above 'actors' are seldom seen or heard outside Cairo and Alexandria.

Government in Egypt has been continuous. Led by the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces (SCAF), many elite groups have remained in place. The army of course owns and manages many companies. Then there is the civilian elite – captains of industry. The religious hierarchy remains untouched. Government ministries, particularly those of tourism, minerals, agriculture, the economy, and security, have been running continuously.

That might be seen as a victory for conservative forces except that, again, these actors are seldom seen outside Cairo and coastal Egypt. So the Muslim leaders are up against a power-possessing cluster of elite organizations and departments. Have they learned to accommodate the secular technocrats? One recalls the much-publicized 'alliance; between Muhammad Al Baradai (former chief of the UN's nuclear regulatory organ) and the Muslim Brothers, led by Muhammad Badie. Al Baradei's group became an umbrella for youth groups, secular liberals, as well as the MB.

The MB is expected to win about 43% of the upcoming vote, a plurality. All sorts of maneuvers have been going on, as secular and sectarian tussle for the levers of money and power in Egypt. On April 30, 2011, , the MB changed its name to the Freedom and Justice Party. They sought to ally themselves with the military. But Field Marshall Tantawi (the Sphinx) and those officers led by Lt. Gen. Sami Hafez Enan, issued a fiat back in September, that a full one third (1/3^rd) of the seats in the parliament will go to small, independent groups. So the original 'alliance' with the Brothers has turned into a struggle for influence. After elections, these tensions will likely grow. For chief, we believe the Egyptians will choose Amr Musa, former foreign minister and the recent chief of the Arab League.

Mass demonstrations organized by the MB are expected to occur in the next few days.

As we'll see, there's enough bad blood to go around. The MB leaders have enough to do to counter, on the streets, the Salafis. Both believe everything question, including ideas, are from the Devil.

Saudi Arabia - The recent death of Prince Sultan, long-time minister of defense, has set in motion a struggle of influence. (Sultan was heir apparent). Prince Abdul Rahman, vice minister of defense, was fired, replaced by Prince Salman, mayor of Riyadh. This inner struggle comes when Said Arabia is preparing to receive new military equipment from the USA (some $60 billions worth).

When in Vienna last spring the OPEC members had a fist fight, refusing any increase of production, and putting oil prices onto a higher plateau, Saudi king Abdallah bin Abd al-Aziz informed America that it would increase production. But, if you listened to the fall-out attending America's rejection of any enhanced status at the UN, you would have heard the kin g say: “The special relationship is over.” So the Saudis did not in fact increase production by enough to offset the foolish jitters in the markets, when the people of Libya revolted against Qaddafi.

Note: So, once again, prosperity evades the USA, due to stupid errors. How can the USA possibly be a just arbiter when it acquiesces in the theft and annexation of land vouchsafed to Arab Palestine by the international community? Have we forgotten that Israel and Arab Palestine were born together, legally. The existence of one gives rights and blessing to the existence of the other. Do we abandon that law?

Alas, the Israelis, the Americans conform to the extremist Muslim fringe: Is it still the way of the sword – law, negotiation, does not apply. The Americans, Israel, Iran, the Gaza Palestinians, the Syrian regime, believe in the sword, and have prepared themselves just for this path. Peace is not really a serious issue or problem. Negotiations with others are not necessary if you are blessed by God.

For one thing, the political players are taking their cues from God, from scripture. Too many people are talking to God in the Middle East!

Syria - Thirty four civilians die after prayers on the 11th of Nov. Two weeks ago, the Arab League issued its strongest warning to the regime of Al Asad, but Al Asad did not hestitate to deploy armor into civilian neighborhoods, to support the secret police in rounding up “all terrorist suspects.” Homs has become the center of the protest, with 10 people dying a day, on average. Will the Arab League kick the Syrian regime out of the League? We don't know. But that seems to be the logical next step.

We were horrified at the weaponization of the conflict. But many times armed protesters, led by dissident army officers, have prevented the slaughter of innocents by the Baathi forces. But this has only enraged the regime. So the stand off will persist. The members of the regime know their own survival is at stake.  B ut we should not give up on seeking a negotiated settlement. Such an agreement would have to gurantee the safety of many Baathi leaders, plus the minorities: Alewites (Nasiris), Christians (of some four kinds), Jews, Kurds, and Palestinians.

Turkey has given Syria strong warnings, and has deployed strong armor along its borders. Syrian forces have already entered into Turkey, to grab defecting soldiers and police.

Turkey - Turkey has become a player. Just a year ago it was trumpeting its tripartite agreement with Syrian and Iran. Earlier it had forced Al Assad to stop harboring and arming the PKK. Iran and Syria are long been allies, and Turkey once again is faced with a war in its extreme southeast.

Israel – another wave of demonstrations, this time by women. As the ultra-orthodox rose on the back of the Likud's settlement policies, pushing into Jerusalem and the West Bank, the majority of Israelis, who are secular, or reform, are powerless to pursue the peace they want, because the leaders have used the bible to win, then to prosecute their very dark strategy of stealing an entire Arab nation.

I say this as one who has worked for the Israeli government. I echo the feelings and thoughts of younger Israelis of some empathy, who hate their own inhuman government.

Democracy has major weaknesses. The uneducated bigots all get to vote. Those who want negotiations, those who have studied social problems, those who know the world at large, are all eclipsed as once again, the politics of symbolic appeal blots out the politics of prosperity, peace and reason. Such symbolic throwbacks to the past, precludes practical solutions, long-range trade and peace inside your own country.

There is enough blame to go all around: religion is often used to persecute others. So remember the injunction: “Do not use my name to cause harm. If you do, I will punish you with especial severity.” (Ex.20:7)

-John Paul Maynard