Friday, August 30, 2013

An Attack on Syrian chemical rocket forces?

We argue against a symbolic strike as too risky. Hitting any chemical detail is fraught with risk. Most chemical agents have to be mixed in the warhead. Hitting these missile sites and/or chem depots can cause a catastrophic chemical 'event.' Hitting electrical grid will also impact on civilians.

But maybe the Turks or the Saudis or the Americans have some detail intelligence re Syrian chem plants, in which case it may be possible to target discrete components: pipes, pumps, minimizing civilian casualties.

 Has the Syrian regime been degraded in its air capabilities? The mere threat of US/allied intervention has roiled the Ba'athist bureaucracies and units in the cities. Matar Al Asad has an armed force on each of his eight fingers, but they are not free to go where they want. Many links between Syrian army bases are broken and when repaired, these inner-agency communications are read by the Americans. Giving the Free Syrian army an accurate maps with good intelligence might prove a better gift than weapons and munitions.

President Obama spoke today about the looming attack. He has yet to commit himself. The refusal of the British parliament to sanction a strike on Syrian regime, derives from knee-jerk opponents of everything American. We have talked to a few of these self-righteous types, and all bend history to their ideological protrusion, a kind of extremism.

Sometimes intervention works, sometimes it does not. There are no good outcomes. If the strike goes unpunished, it may be repeated. What then? The regime can box rebels into a small area, then hit it with chemicals. Of colurse women and children perish in ghastly fashion.

After WWI the world resolved not to produce or deploy chem weapons, but of course the powers and their proxies produced and stocked hundreds of tons of terrible gases like Sabin, Sarin, chlorine-based horrors in various flavors. The powers also kept themselves in landmines, anti-armor, anti-personnel, strewn about in some 18 countries. Afghanistan leads them, but the Eastern Congo is not far behind.  Somalia, Yemen, Sudan, Iraq, Iran, Pakistan, India, Myanmar, Vietnam, Cambodia, Laos, and also the mines buried along the borders of various nations, like the Libyan-Egyptian border sections.

Reader, treat yourself to different views of the Arab Spring by sampling this site's archive. You will find weekly reportage (up to 2012) and learned commentary. I have friends in Syria, and have visited Syria, just months before the city of Hama was destroyed by the Al Asad army under Mater Bashad.

Bashar means humanity in Arabic, which is a weird joke, a mocking of the dead. He is right in not claiming control over the regime, because his brother Mater and a big gang of thugs run the war.

Fear and loathing in Hama, Homs, Haleb, ash Sham, Dara'a. Millions of Syrians have left their homes. We receive a report that Jordanian divisions (3) are moving up to the Syrian border. Are they gunning for Asad Ba'athi troops? Or are they there to prevent more people from surging across the border.

Iran will have a field day if the strike on Syrian chem troops does go through. They will figure they can use gas also. Of course they suffered from it, from Iraq.  There is the risk that Iran's proxies Hizbullah in southern Lebanon and the Syrian army will launch 'retaliatory' strikes of Israel, touching off a larger war. The Israelis have their own well-paid contacts in Syria, but the Americans also have an extensive net of CIA-paid agents, and perhaps, units, inside Syria.


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