Organizing Democracy after a Revolution تنظيم الديمقراطية بعد الثورة

تنظيم الديمقراطية بعد الثورة

Organizing Democracy after Revolution

هذه ليست نظرية ولكن الخطوات الفعلية التي نجحت ثورة كدولة ديمقراطية.

The seven-point scheme below is not a theory but actual nodes of an octave as it would be if completed. Deviations can occur at any step, and the process stopped.

1. ceasefire

2. release of prisoners

3. talk, and an agreement to talk more

4. a shared study of principles held in common, laws

5. changes in laws, some immediately

6. evolution of party platforms

7. elections

This is what it looks like when the octave completes itself. A diverging group of political actors agree to cooperate to make a new kind of government. That's why a ceasefire is the first required step -  it all comes out of that imposed local peace. The Arab revolutions  are impacting on seven levels all at once. Here is the octave of societal man:

do – the relation I have with myself

re – what happens between two people

mi – three people – the family or firm

First INTERVAL – no semitone between mi and fa

fa – the village

so – town

la – regions, counties, provinces

si – nation

Second INTERVAL – no semitone

do – (of the 2^nd octave) all nations, world unity

Any historical event, like a revolution, impacts, occurs, on each of the above levels all at once, or in sequence.. The key is to see how the big vibrations effect and affect each level. At the moment, world leaders are gathering around Israel's gross disregard for basic norms. Even if the Jews, armed with the bible and American money, succeed in driving the Arabs out of the West Bank of Palestine, the land will always remain stolen property. And thus fuel terror and the build-up to catastrophic nuclear war, an exchange of missiles by Iran and Israel.

We've also written about the rasher of political players, including the new ones from the Arab street. Americans think they have influenced the Muslim Arab people, but this is incorrect. The Arabs are no stranger to representative democracy. Bedouin chiefs are generally elected, and the tent of the sheikh is always open, even to the poorest of petitioners.  I have attended meetings where people ending in a show-of-hands. Then there is Islam, strongly equalitarian

This time the fundamentalist clergy will not get away with it without cost. Jewish, Christian, Muslim faiths cannot be corrupted, as they are, by loud, political clerics. Gaza, Israel, Iran show what happens when the clergy control politicians and the masses. America, too, uses biblical images and narratives to define themselves, to carry their hopes after death, to make discriminations between other peoples, including your own society. The past five presidents believe in the Apocalypse, and some were tempted to become a part of it.

 Let us list the players, the groups arguing their platforms: ( in North Africa, Yemen, Syria.)  They range from from kids on the street, high school students, most with cell phones; local Muslim mullahs and imams, of some nine different stripes; businessmen, on all levels; women as family members and as political associations; banks and holding companies;  educators, teachers professors, scientists; lawyers; labor unions and professional associations; national Muslim leaders; former government employees; pensioners; Muslim media groups, some competing; minority representatives; women organizations, incl, profession associations; older established parties, like the socialists and conservative political associations; expatriates returning; the government ministries and departments, the police, the army and intelligence services; former political prisoners; the dispossessed, the destitute;  and the grieving; the disabled, – the sick and wounded, the lame; big farmers and small farmers; transportation companies, big and small; the unemployed; university students; housewives and homemakers.

So you see it is a big field of players, each with their interests, but generally overlapping. They all share the same dream of freedom and prosperity. Can so many different constituencies  agree on a form of government? That's the questions the people in the Region ask themselves. They talk and get to know each other, each other's arguments and priorities. The process requires referencing a common moral and legal traditions, written and unwritten. The groups find common ground in basic humane principles: how to care for the sick and wounded; how to get food and fuel in; finding jobs for returning emigres – many professionals, and much more.

The Arab revolutions of 2011-2012 have had no one leader, or any leaders, which is a very good sign for two reasons. Are leaders really necessary to a society where most everyone is highly alert, proactive and responsible?

The Arab revolutions were very broad-based revolts, based on common grievances and shared expectations. Only Libya has seen a complete destruction of a regime. But the people were morally out-raged at their core, largely at police behavior by states. It started first amongst the Sahrawis in southwest Algeria in the summer of 2010 – a continual protest against Morocco's failure to hold a referendum of independence in the Southern (or Western or Spanish) Sahara; then the autumn 2010's protests in Algeria itself, in the cities along the coast, and in the Kabyle mountains to the east; the Algerian immolations spread to Tunisia, and, most importantly, the Algerian protesters realized they could disobey the authorities, the police and army and al mukhabarat. All the other revolts were triggered by the realization of this simple fact - that crowds can stare down the police, go up against the army. So I commend the brave protesters, many women, outside Algiers, in late December 2010 who stared down the police after taking casualties from their fire.

Tunisia and Egypt and Libya revolutions followed, completing the above process/octave: an elected gov., with one ultimately responsible, an elected PM with enough executive power as to cut through the bureaucracies and the chaos to make things happen.

But the revolution itself was not a rational process, thought out and planned, but a spontaneous emotional self-liberation, as protesters grew to realize that they could use civil disobedience to take control of their countries.

No intel group has any complete accurate record of all the conversations in places like Algiers and Cairo. Except for Lib ya, former regime officials are still in control, not just army, intel and police, but businessmen who were providing definite key services: food, fuel, water, housing, information and telecommunications, medicine.

The election of moderate Muslim associations is legit because these groups also, provide necessary services for poor populations which the state cannot provide.

The above octave of political organization is useful for examining the dynamically tragic situation in Syria. Just a few weeks ago we said the situation was all locked up, frozen. The Syrian regime of Al Asad deployed whole divisions of tanks against small towns and suburbs – indiscriminate killing, and many raids by the secret police.

On the 2^rd of October, the Arab League offered to broker a truce. On the 3^rd, the Al Asad regime said it agreed to stand down and hold talks. On the 4^th, today, Friday, the so-called liberal opposition in Syria refused to heed any such talks or standing down. Readers know we predicted this.

This refusal by the opposition to talk peace with the authorities is a product of all the blood and suffering, and the refusal of the Syrian army and secret police units, to just back off. A systematic round-up (and execution) of protest leaders is continuing, with some 20 killed in and around Homs on Thursday, and another 180 seriously injured all unarmed protesters, or men resisting arrest.

Why is it so difficult to just proceed peacefully to new elections? Because that requires talking face to face with a hideous machine which eats people arbitrarily. Many thought Bashar al Asad was a reformer, opening up Syria to big business and private banking. But ten years of this led to a widening disparity of incomes. Well-connected families in Damascus and Aleppo did very well, while many, many educated people, ready to work, were frozen out and impoverished, as commodity prices kept rising.

There is a certain raw pride in revolutionaries, a confidence and belief necessary for unarmed people to go up against a heavily-armed state apparatus. This is how and why many die in these things. It also precludes or makes difficult, any negotiations and local discussion of the immediate needs of the population. Even a simple ceasefire is rendered void, because the regime sees the refusal-to-talk on behalf of the popular opposition, as a sign that more war is the only course. For the regime is fighting for its survival.

But events in Tunisia, Egypt and Libya have un-nerved the Syrian regime. Bashar can see his probable fate all too well. There will be not relenting, no let up in the state's prosecution of its war against 'armed terrorists' and 'foreign-led extremists.'

The opposition has put together a National Council, committed to democracy. Half its members are in Turkey (and other countries) and half in Syria. This integration of revolutionary committees across Syria is a story in itself. Given government control of the roads, how could delegates meet and work out a governm,ent-in-waiting?

One reason is that the paid informers long used by the regime, have been rolled up. There is still traffic on the roads: people can get around, but not everywhere, and not all the time. The regime has no choice but to deploy low-level Syrian army units to man roadblocks, and these are usually Sunni recruits, draftees. Hence they let the opposition to move around.

The Arab League is lock-on to Syria, and will not relent in proffering peace talks. But just getting a ceasefire is proving impossible. That is unfortunate, as a simple ceasefire requires no effort, no expense, except a little dialogue between the parties.

The regime's story of how it hanged tough in the face of defecting soldiers and secret police, executing many who refused to shoot dead unarmed fellow citizens., is a poignant epic, full of heroism and rank evil.

The opposition story is even more amazing: unarmed people going up against tanks. This incredible bravery was seen in Libya, in the sieges of Mishrata, Zawiye and Tripoli, where the people went up against terrible odds.

How can such bravery be transferred to constitutional government at peace? Revolutions may succeed in overthrowing a regime, but fail to evolve just government. The answer is in everyone talking and figuring out what to do. A coup d'etat involves just a few actors, but a real revolution involves many thousands of people. In the Arab revolutions of 2010-12, just about everybody is affected in one way or another. Such a broad based call for justice and fair food and fuel prices means that an even more broadly based government will evolve, develop.

The fourth node in the above octave (organizing democracy) refers to orienting one's thinking to existing legal traditions, written and unwritten. In Libya, for example, the new interim government pledges to base their law on the Shari'a and fiqh. Tremors ran through the stock market and American security buffs. One big reason why the Shari'a is mentioned is that Islam is the glue that holds the Libyan tribes together. Qaddafi had tried to destroy or usurp both civil and sectarian jurisprudence, and even the courts themselves. For four decades the people had no independent judiciary: justice was mocked. The citizenry were not encouraged or rewarded for thinking that fairness and human rights was natural. Indeed, it was a crime to think that way.

Many Muslim fundamentalists have solemnly proclaimed that Islam is not compatible

with democracy. How can they say that? The first four caliphs were elected. In fact, most Bedouin elect their chiefs. Muhammad supported elections not just because they were fair and efficient, able to adapt, but mostly because he always accentuated personal responsibility.

Democracy assumes individual responsibility. People are asked to think for themselves, and be a part of choosing the ruler. In complex modern societies, the voting citizen is assumed to have investigated the critical issues facing the nation. He or she must know the world at large, as well as their own societies. Of course this rarely happens. But it is critical that complex societies find the correct solutions, for without right thinking, these societies go down quickly. It is the norm not the exception that leaders get these complex issues right. History shows that dynasties, nations, empires succumb to mistakes made in high places. But most muddle through. Almost always, the poor and the middle suffer.

In the USA, for example, most people still believe that banks lend money for growing businesses or to invent new things and further innovation. Traditionally, their profits were made on loans and mortgages. But that ended a decade ago. Since then, banks make their money not by investing, but by ripping off its poorer customers using fees: overdraft charges, higher interest rates for loans, and debit and credit card fees.

The issue is pertinent because the social equity protest movement, following the Arab protests, has become a global phenomena, spontaneous, and without leaders. The economic costs of these revolutions has been extraordinarily high. All those in Cairo and Sana'a living on $2 a day now live on $1 a day, or less. Supplies may arrive, but paying for them is made problematic due to the soaring food and commodity prices, and the need to set up a new distribution system.

Ultimately, the way poorer countries can access credit on the market is determined by the ratio of imports over exports. The Americans put that system in place at the Bretton Woods hotel, New Hampshire, in July 1944. It happened over the protests of the other delegations. The proper rule was to base credit on per-capita exports. Such a policy, put in place in 1944, would have created a different kind of world, one much more favorable to free enterprise than the present system.

Businessmen and women are flocking to the capitals, hoping to be part of the erection of the new societies. Investors outside might intervene, but only if the rule of law is enforced. Law and legislation are potent tools in re-building a society. All Muslim countries have secular traditions: civil and criminal law traditions, usually taken in pieces from Europe.

Americans are right in criticizing Islam for letting terrorists and stupid mullahs usurp the religion. Stoning and the cutting off of hands, the persecution of non-Muslims, the repression of women, terrorism – these are not part of the original Shari'a. We even know how they crept into these Muslim legal traditions (of which there are at least five).

The blackening of the Shari'a in Europe and America is unfortunate. Americans know only the five bad implants, but nothing as to the 40-odd spheres of human experience which the Shari'a addresses with admirable justice.

The main principle in Islamic law is ijtihad and fiqh. Both infer struggle – a hard struggle to decide correctly. It is just this effort, this competence, which is required in building a new country. People put aside well-established grievances and stereotypes, to work together to solve real problems.

It's pilgrimage time, and Saudi Arabia's top cleric, Mufti Sheikh Abdul Aziz al Sheikh, call for peace: negotiations, not blood. A delegation of several thousand Syrians traveled to Mecca, praying for Syrian unity. "Let us stand shouldert to shoulder."

The Arab League was upset that the Al Asad regime is using lethal force after it agreed to seek a ceasefire. But the Syrian National Council chief Burhan Galioun, wants no talks with the regime. Why not set the regime on a course to divest itself of power? Why the war?

-John Paul Maynard

Organizing Democracies in Muslim Nations تنظيم الديمقراطية في الدول الإسلامية

تنظيم الديمقراطية في الدول الإسلامية

The Week's Headlines - Oct.21 - Oct. 28

Syria - After Friday prayers, some 170 protests were recorded, all peaceful. Yet the regime's police and army shot dead 37 in the hours after Friday prayers. Most of the victims lived in Der'a, Homs and in Hama. It seems sanctions make no difference: the secret police are as active as ever, and as brutal.

Tunisia - National elections have split the next interim government. The An Nada party took more votes, but not a majority. Even though urban Tunisia is deemed to be the most modern and secular of Arab nations, the bulk of the population live outside Tunis and its suburbs. Thus they are in daily contact with local Muslim leaders. The governments of Tunisia almost succeeded in providing basic services for its people. As in Egypt, the local Muslims provide services the government cannot. The dominance of cities over the villages in the countryside is a chief theme, largely outside people's awareness. But, unlike Europe and North America, the cities are not seen as centers of authentic culture: the culture is safeguarded by a 'purer' rural strain, closely tied to life-ways, featuring native music, art, and trade. That's why Middle East and North African leaders are almost all born in villages.

In Tunisia this week this chasm between urban and rural provoked riots and protests in Sidi Bouzid.
Egypt – the same urban-rural split characterizes Egypt as well as Tunisia (and Algeria and Morocco). Elections coming up in November will likely favor the Islamists, but again, like Tunisia, the Islamists will be a plurality. Pluralities are curious because they force a kind of fusion of ideologies, philosophies and personnel up and down the ranks. Or such cooperation may fail.
Most Americans still believe that Muslims attacked the Pentagon and the World Trade Center. But the one thing all these terrorist groups have in common, is ignorance of Islam. Many American 'christians' hate the prophet Muhammad and all things Islamic. Their knowledge of the shari'a is limited to laws of stoning, the cutting off of hands, persecution of non-Muslim, the repression and restriction of women, terror and jihad. None of these are Islamic. We know this because we can trace each of these errors – we know where they came from and how they got into Islamic law.(See 'Islam under the Knife', at www.middleeastspeculum.blogspot.com. Scroll down)
Note: Though these governments have sufficient revenue to fund secular services (schools, clinics, hospitals, emergency food and water, burial) the money went to the armed forces, weapons, pensions, and to enriching the leader, his staff, his family and cronies.

Morocco - more protests coming soon, as the kingdom moves too slowly with reform.

Turkey – a devastating earthquake, measuring 7.2 on the Richter scale, hit the cites of Edris and Van, killing over 500. Even after four days, some villages are still cut off. The quake occurred simultaneously with the first winter weather. The Van region is far from Istanbul and Ankara, so we puzzled when the Turkish gov. turned down all outside help. Chalk it up Turkish national pride. (later, outside teams were admitted). Turkey is trying to win a big power status in the region, under the cloak of regional unity – peace with Iran and Syria. Both have proven to be big embarrassments.
Curious thing about the Islamists heading up the government in Turkey: they seem not to have studied the many Ottoman studies of fiqh and the shari'a. We know from our own research, that the Ottomans successfully modernized all those aspects of the shari'a not related to religious services.

Yemen – soldiers loyal to president Ali Abdullah Saleh and dissident general Ali Mohsin and his defecting forces. Unfortunately, people protesting and marching are being 'protected' by Mohsen's forces, which triggers gunfights and civilian deaths. Soon, we think, Saleh will step down, but till he can safeguard himself, his staff and his family and friends, from prosecution by a new government.

How that government will accrue and be ordered, is hard to imagine, because already, all the factions, septs, tribes, labor leaders, intellectuals, socialists, private and public companies, plus the women – are jockeying for power. But before this happens, the shibab, the youth, will retain their decisive influence. These kids feed on angry dumbed-down rap 'music' from the US, and have no inkling to compromise, even with the protesting adults.

Libya – with the death of Mu'ammar Qaddafi and complete liberation of all Libya, the end of fighting, one might expect that the oil brokers and investors, might return the price of gasoline, heating oil and diesel, back to the level they were a year ago. Those prices were 50% less than they are still today.
Saudi Arabia has been pumping extra oil, but the price has been kept artificially high, constituting a huge distortion of the market. But this is not discussed, even though most Americans have to pay this extra surcharge on almost everything they buy. To me, it is the strangest thing I have ever seen in the USA: a total silence as wealth is just sucked away by some 24 future traders engaged in wanton speculation, plus the big oil companies, who never hesitate to exploit a situation to raise prices.
The so-called 'jitters' (insecurity) of the market – all those monied investors and brokers and traders – is perhaps the key factor. But this is very embarrassing. The money people have figured out that 'oil is important' and 'much of it is in Muslim lands' – so they get nervous. Of course they've never studied the Middle East, employing the methods of social science, and fear what they do not know.

A little knowledge is a dangerous thing, especially of the Middle East.

Now for the theme of the week: Organizing Democratic Reform

Except for Syria, the citizens of Arab countries are busily discussing social and economic and political reform. Only in Libya has a complete regime been swept away. All others are discussing issues and dealing with economic demands. People from very different backgrounds have been meeting, and talent and expertise is pooled.

The overwhelming view held by politically active Arabs is some sort of parliamentary democracy, where elections are held for offices on some four levels – neighborhood sheriff, to village mayor, to one's rep in state, and the state itself, via the PM and his many ministers.

One big difference today is that so many Arabs, women as well as men, are educated. America did not have to trumpet its own version of democracy, because the educated Arab is aware of the various political economies: not just the differences between a prime minister and a president, but various kinds of socialism, Islamism, 'Athenianism,” et al.

It hurts whenever I hear some ignorant mullah or American politician say that Islam is incompatible with democracy. In Arabia, the bedouin elect their leaders. The emirs and sultans must keep their doors open to all members of the community. I have attended meeting in the Middle East and Central Asia, where collective decisions were determined by a show of hands.

Muhammad himself was a democrat. He said: “Government must consult with the people at every step.” The first four caliphs – the rashidun – were elected. Islam has a very strong sense of equality between all people, rich or poor, black or white, literate and illiterate, and yes, men and women. So democracy fits in well and the Arabs need no instructions as to how to configure their governments. Putting together a constitution, on the other hand, might require some international expertise.

All the Arab states have distinct differences, making each revolution rather complex. With this great wave of political activity sweeping over Arab lands and beyond, we are afforded a chance to see the differences between them.

Readers of this publication have been fed a summation of these national characteristics, in abbreviated format. By clicking on the titles in the archive (on the right margin) you can acquaint yourself with how the protests took different courses.

Syria is a gaping flesh wound that just festers. Over 3,000 Syrians have been killed. The populations in 'bad cities'are under continual attack. The revolt is endemic in Homs, Halab, Latakia, Ar Rustan, the Douma suburb of Damascus, Deir az Zaur (out east on the Euphrates), and in the far south, As Suweida and the city which started it all – Dera'a.

Frankly, we were stumped for months and months, seeing no solution. The activists turn down all offers and suggestions coming from their respective regimes. Compromise is not possible, it seems, given the amount of blood shed. A gov. does lose its legitimacy if it turns its weapons on unarmed citizens, so the democratic opposition will not truck with Damascus. “There is no way we can talk it out” said one student from Syria. Bashar and Maher Al Assad will not stop the attacks because they know their very survival is at stake.

As late as last month, we saw no hope for a ceasefire, no less a settlement of issues. But the Syrian regime is running out of money. Sanctions prevent supplies, electronic toys and food from getting through. Foreign accounts have been frozen. Out of all the nations, Syria can count on no true friendship, though ties remain between Russia. China, like Russia, do not like to see autocratic regimes collapse into the chaos of democracy. North Korea supports the Syrian gov., as does Serbia.

Because of these pressures, the Syrians just might be persuaded to cease fire and perhaps talk. Maybe the opposing leaders change their thinking and find that they are both Syrians. So international calls for a ceasefire just might be answered. That call might be from the UN, the USA, the Arab League, the EU, or perhaps from Iran and/or Turkey. Stop all provocative manifestations, and prohibit the police from interfering in illegal demonstrations. Those are the first, basic goals that need be met. We should remember them, for no political process, no dialogue, can come out of the violence. Both sides have been violent: demonstrations turn into riots then the police shoots, as it trained to do.

The Seven (7) Steps to Democratic Government

The first step is the ceasefire.

The second step is to release all the political prisoners.

The third step is to talk, discuss needs, issues, events and endemic problems, across class, gender, professional associations, race, labor unions, religious affiliations, and across the great divide separating the very rich from the very poor.

Step four is to write a constitution,

step five: ratification of the constitution in the new assemblies or in the central divan for the ulama.

Step six: formation of party platforms

Step Seven: elections.

That's the octave of modern state formation. Each 'note' is itself an octave, and each of the smaller octaves are themselves made up of seven elements.

Let us explain, citing an example. We start with a country that has overthrown its leaders, using civil disobedience. Somehow a ceasefire must be effected, and for that to happen, both sides must step down. The process of negotiation, back and forth like a tennis game, can go either way, either building trust, or aggravating the relationship. There is no such thing as the status quo: it's either up or down. Mostly down. So the complexity of getting a ceasefire in place consists of seven activities: from making contact, to recognizing economic and ecological changes, to adapt in order to fulfill material and medical needs, to actually enforcing a ceasefire, to transition into formal talks. And each of these is a complex affair.

We will return to the seven steps in organizing democracies in North Africa and the Middle East next week. We post late every Friday.

By John Paul Maynard

The author is, amongst other things, the moderator/instructor of an on line discussion group on Islamic civilization, for the Graduate Alumni Association, Harvard University.

Arab Autumn - A Bitter-Sweet Harvest

حلال الخريف -- الحصاد المر الحلو

Arabia in Autumn – A Bitter-Sweet Harvest

Syria -

In Syria, violent suppression of dissent continues. Today after prayers, some nine were shot dead in and around Homs. The regime uses photographs and school records to identify protesters, then raids their homes, often hauling young men and women away at night. The figure of 3,000 is generally given for deaths, both civilian and military, but some 20,000 Syrians are missing, mostly young men, but also older intellectuals. The regime's brutal techniques have cowed the dissidents: streets in Hama, Latakia, Dara'a, As Suweida, Ar Rastan, Deir Az Zaur and Homs were quiet, much too quiet. People are huddling in dark apartments, many war damaged, with little or no potable water, electrical power, and food. Out of such conditions comes such misery that behavior is closely guarded, the demonstrations come to end, temporarily. But today they appeared again: the people refuse to be cowed.

Demonstrations in 2009 in Tehran, Iran, and those in Syria over the past 9 months, resemble each other, that we wonder if the same people are involved in the successful suppression of these democratic movements. For months, the rebellion grew, spread from neighborhood to neighborhood, then from city to city, as Syria's neglected educated youth explored the limits of civil disobedience.

But the government is deploying snipers under orders to shoot anyone moving outside, while the secret police (generally called al Mukhabarat) make well-planned raids on individual apartments. Many defecting army personnel and targeted dissidents are constantly moving, through the satellite villages around these cities. So the army, under Mahir Al Assad, is maneuvering armor brigades, which, backed by helicopter gunships and bombers, is making sweeps all along the border, and in select areas outside the cities.

Note: The Turks are also maneuvering armor along its border. Devastating PKK (Kurdish Workers' Party) assaults on the 18^th provoked Turkey to deploy battalions and squadrons inside northern Iraq. The other Kurds, the Americans, the Europeans, as well as the Iraqi gov., do not appear to mind such incursions. Not that they have any say. This is the mountainous region, northeast of Dahuk and Zakhu. The entire border region suggests a time warp, from Ugarit on the coast across to the Caspian, evoking Hurrian and Hittite historical memories.

In Syria, it is all jammed up. Neither the regime or its critics can win. All those more wealthy Syrians in Damascus and Haleb (Aleppo) are also losing big time. Here at Speculum we cannot determine how the regime is paying its 2.3 million armed forces, intel agents, secret police and informants. The Syrian gov. personnel are under extensive sanctions, and the Syrian National Bank has closed due to a shortage of funds. We suspect that Iran, Russia and maybe China are secretly providing credits. But how can the Syrian regime take delivery, or spend funds loaned or given to it?

The question is pertinent, because only such an economic breakdown of relationships will pry the regime's finger off the trigger. Where will the oil come from to run its vehicles and aircraft and navy? How will people in Syria stay warm this winter? These are the pressing questions in the country today.

Libya - Qaddafi is killed in Sirte (Surt) as resistance collapses. We confess our error, for “we deduce that the Mad Dog of Tripoli is hiding in the south, a vast territory impossible to monitor. Qaddafi had long cultivated warm relations with the Tuaregs. It was they who taught him to be a man of action.” Qaddafi went to high school in Sabha, in the Fezzan, far to the south.

But no: Qaddafi opted to make a stand in Sirte, the place of his birth and strongly pro-Qaddafi. Between Tripolitania and Cyranaica, he could command both fronts, kor so he thought. His son Mustahim, Libya's highest ranking security official, was killed with his father. Qaddafi also may have hoped to flee Libya by sea. It is surprising that NTC fighters did not learn of Qaddafi's presence in Sirte until they found him hiding in a fetid drainage pipe, like a rat. Many think the Colonel was killed by his captors, but others say one of Qaddafi's own body guards put a bullet in the side of his head.

Libya's revolution is so far the only complete revolution amongst all the Arab states. But it was also the most improbable. Given Qaddafi's hideous repression, the revolt last February of Benghazi was a brave act: if the US president did not order his pilots to intervene, the revolt would likely have been crushed. Or left smoldering while Qaddafi sews up, integrates, his forces of repression.

The Libyan revolution did not occur in a vacuum. The Sahrawi protests of the summer and autumn 2011 may have tempted the Libyans to rise up. Perhaps it was Algeria, where the crowds disobeyed the police curfew and people set themselves on fire. Tunisian demonstrators took heed of the Algerian lesson, as did the demonstrators at Tahrir Square, Cairo.

NATO countries have no claims, are not pressing for influence. The revolt is all Libyan in terms of sacrifice. But NATO jets proved decisive: satellites and electronic intercept missions were followed by armed recon, then the strike 'packages.' But NATO would not have intervened had not Amr Musa (Moussa), chief of the Arab League, given the green light to Big Power intervention.

Amr Musa is hoping to win the presidency in the upcoming December elections. He was Egypt's foreign minister and that job led to his appointment to head the Arab League. Paradoxically, he has had a much information about the Arab world than did the nationalists, like Gamal Abdul Nasir (Nasser).

Mr. Musa (the Arab League) did not mind but ordered Western intervention, while Nasir went to war to fight the West. The League is showing signs of unexpected maturity. The West has changed also: an international order can be formed without the support of the Russians and Chinese. The real threat is much closer to home: rivalry and competition for diminishing amounts of oil and other minerals might bring these big petrol-heavy 'advanced' economies into deadly plots, schemes, bribes and narrow stratagem and ruses and machinations, all to win a place at the big Mid East oil banquet.

Will the Arab revolutions pull the 24 Arab nations (we include Mauritania and Somalia) together? Possibly. The air forces of Qatar and the UAE now have pilots with combat experience. The Libyans will not forget them. These are two kingdoms (once sultanates) are the champions of liberal Arab 'awakening.' Both a well-armed in cash, jets, and media organs (like al Jazira).

The new leaders of Libya have their hands full disarming the thousands of militias that rose up in most of the neighborhoods. Already intense work is being done – communications across the boundaries of tribe, class, level of education, gender, and political leanings. I say 'leaning' because the Libyan people have never had the chance to choose their own leaders (at least since 1500 AD). Political parties? What do they do? What are my preferences and ideals, and how can I express these through political action?

Here are the major groups now vying for dominance:

• tribes, all 48 of them, led by the Misurata (on the Med coast) and the Tuareg in the south. For example, tribes in the Nafusa Mountains have little truck with tribes in Cyranaica.
• age and education level: can secular modern folk talk sense to their sons and their mothers? Old people are well qualified. But many of poor elderly will vote for the Islamists, because they will bury you properly, for free. Islamists are made to provide these kind of services. How can they reach for power except through that service?
• Religion. Though Libyans are Sunnis, there has been tension between the Wahhabi-crazed MB-affiliated mullahs (and their jihadis and young toughs), and the Sufis. Before Qaddafi, Libya was managed by the Sufis, the Sanussi tariqat.
• Labor unions: Qaddafi created labor organs but not independent ones. Many Libyan professionals have no collective representation, but that will change.
• Political leanings, right or left: progressive, regressive, active and reactive. Or full-time backers of the status quo. Unfortunately, nothing stays the same.
• Rich or poor
• Urban or rural
• Gender: there is constant exchanges between the three sexes.

These are the axis in the political equation. To make good democracy, all these groups need to come together and share in the power and in the responsibilities.

Global Oil Industry -  

Within hours of the news of Qaddafi's death, the oil markets started to come down a little. The US hasn't taken any Libya oil for decades, but the investment 'experts' got the jitters. I guess they've heard that oil is important, but do not have needed area qualifications to gauge the political flex and flux in the petroleum market, the OPEC, the OAPEC, IEA, US EA, the big oil companies. This created openings for both private speculators (NY Mecantile Exchange) playing the game of 'futures,' i.e., betting that the price will go up or down.) and for the big oil companies, who, bless their little hearts, never pass up a chance to jack up the price of oil. Gasoline is 30% higher than it should be.

Algeria -

Qaddafi's death occurred on the 50th anniversary of the terrible masscre of unarmed Algerians in Paris, killing some 700, many women and children. The FLN believed that, since the French were enlightened humanists, they would not fire on women and children. How wrong they were. That massacre has never been investigated. Nor was Charles DeGaul ever credited with such a savage inhuman policy. (Note: the French had been under attack by Algerian terrorists hitting innocents in France.)

The Algerian gov. is sitting on some $160 billion in gold and currency reserves. But how can such sums be spent without corruption? The Algerians have long been promised adequate housing, but again and again, the contractors keep adding little features so the housing complexes cost more than the poor or even the middle class can pay. Algeria is unusual in that its government and labor leaders cooperate in building new industrial facilities, hotels and housing blocks, and markets. The two new desalination plants that have increased the country's drinking water by a full 2/3rds, over the past two years..

We keep a sharp eye on this kind of capitalism, because it is oil money just might be intelligently invested. Few countries can act as investment bankers, drawing in resources and obligations, while joining elements of the private sector, all to create 'industries out of the blue.' There's a genius lurking there. I don't know if it is in Algiers, Oran, Tlemcen, Constantia in the Kabyle, or way down in the Sahara, in Tamanrasset.

Till the Libyans brought Qaddafi down, Algeria was the only Arab nation that had to fight for its independence. Civil war in the 1990s between Islamists and secular educated gov. personnel killed some 200,000. So the Algerians are a bit wary about massing in the streets: the police always hit them. But reform is going on: Boutiflika proved his independence from the army (after they seated him) and this leads us to think that democracy may include electing all of the members of the national assembly.

Algeria features scores of political parties, each nuanced, each reflecting a tradition of some sort.

Tunisia –

elections (national) will happen on Oct 23, this coming Sunday. They will determine 217 seats in parliament, who will then compose a new constitution. Will the Islamist An Nada Party win over a third of the seats? Yes, but not a half of them: close cooperation with the secular left will be requisite.The rural folk rise up, just as tourists stop coming to the country. Some secular people have already suffered attacks by crazed pseudo-Muslims.

Educated people like ourselves worry about the sudden organization prowess of the long-suppressed MB Wahhabi-crazed fundamentalists, led by jihadists. All Arab countries have secular traditions but Tunisia's were, are, particularly strong. But there is a divide between the capital (and its suburbs), and the rest of the country. Foolish uneducated folk will jump on the name of Islam without any ability to read its texts or how it compares to western law codes. Hence their knee-jerk support for militant mullahs. But Tunisia is, or was, arguably the most advanced Arab nation. So how can it fall to the budding jihadists? Through the ballot box.

As to whom will be chief, president. It's a toss-up between Rashid Ghannouchi, back in the country and now allied with An Nada (Islamist), vs. Beji Caid Sebsi, the acting PM. Both are implicated in repression, An Nada shoeing away Sebsi, while Sebsi more recently, beat back swarming jihadist wannabes attacking gov. installations.

It's the same in the USA, with certain bible-crazed christian fundamentalists, except that the Americans can mostly read, but nevertheless fall into the pit of shirk – worshiping something other than God, or associating Him/Her with some human intent, attitude or attribute. Behind all religions are paths of self-perfection, or at least moral development, but these cannot operate if the subject steals his religion from another and uses to embroider his ego, his personhood. Another sign that a religious group is just mocking God is when it claims to be the exclusive way to God. When such sentiments are expressed, you can be sure that the group's religion is false.

Egypt -

These principles apply to Egypt as well. Like Tunisia, it is still ruled by the armed forces and technocrats once loyal to the Mubarak regime. Intense parlaying has been taking place on all levels. Elections for president (and parliament) are coming in November. Again, we fear that a long-suppressed dumbed-down MB apparat will win great influence. The secular educated people, people of genuine accomplishment, is trying to fend them off by promulgating a rule that one third of the seats will be left for 'independents.' So any association with any group; will disqualify you. Will the Muslim plots and scheme and commit heinous acts like they were wont to do? Wait three years.

Yemen - As soon as Ali Abdullah Saleh returned from a Riyadh hospital, he went on the offensive. I guess he was able to retrieve (using Saudi channels) intelligence relating to Al Qaida of the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP), and passed it to the Americans. They then killed Anwar Awlaki and some key leaders. Some sub-tribe likely sold them out for the 2 million dollar reward. One can't travel any road in Yemen without a tribe's permission.

Meanwhile, in Sana'a the two sides fight. Every few days ten or twelve demonstrators are shot dead. As we keep saying, the material conditions have greatly deteriorated: as winter approaches, there's not enough NG. Out east in Shabwe province, AQAP blew up the NG pipeline bring fuel into the long, fertile Hadramaut wadi. Tit for tat.

Saleh feels some security issues need be settled – he's gunning for the man who tried to kill him and he's hoping the sew the country back together, using carrots and sticks, but even the Americans don't want this. Like everyone, it seems, the Americans look to a much brighter future, when this poorest of Arab lands can be led by the people living therein.

Saudi Arabia -

Just hours after Qaddafi is killed, the Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia, Sultan bin Abd al-Aziz Al Saud, dies in a hospital in New York city. One of Ibn Saud's six sons, he was defense minister for 50 years, since 1962. He more than anyone was the force behind the modern Saudi armed forces. He liked Americans and advocated pro-American policies. Replacing him as crown prince will be Muhammad Nayif, long the minister of the interior.

Will the Arab revolt extend to Saudi Shi'a in the east of the kingdom? There have been a few small incidents. But remember the king receives the Shi'a imam and mufti at least once a year. This personal diplomacy goes a long way, because the Shi'a in the Gulf are members of specific mosques. So we do not expect unrest in the Saudi kingdom.

King Abdullah ibn Abdul Aziz is actually quite popular, even beloved, by Saudis. He has managed to implement reforms, municipal elections, and set up schools for girls, while maintaining extensive contacts with the West, all the while not alienating the Wahhabi muftis and mullahs. Of course the cool one trillion dollars he dumped on the Saudi youth didn't hurt his image either.

Please consult www.middleeastspeculum.blogspot.com for longer studies of Islam, Islamic land law, and the economic challenges facing Arab lands.

By John Paul Maynard

The author is, amongst other things, the moderator/instructor for the on line discussion group “Islamic Civilization” of the Graduate Alumni Association, Harvard University, Cambridge, Massachusetts.

Arab Revolutions: The Global Implications حلال الثورة -- الآثار العالمية

Before we begin the essay, let us list events happening just these past two days. After prayers on Friday, Islamists in Tunis marched on the office/home of acting PM Beji Caid Sebsi. They were met by the police, causing running battles with a rather small group. Yet, as elections loom on Oct.23, there is real worry that the Islamists will dominate. That will be too great a change for modern Tunisia.

Events in Egypt also augur poorly for its November elections. On Oct.9-10, Copts demonstrated in Cairo against persecution by aggressive Salafis. Some 20 were killed as Islamist thugs join the police in concerted attacks. Copts live up and down the Nile - they were the original occupants - but they've been subject to occasional persecution if not downright genocide. Note that the interim Egyptian gov. rapidly promulgated a strict law against murderous religious aggression. Note also that some Egyptian Muslims were ready to sacrifice their lives defending their Coptic brothers.

Most extremist pseudo-Muslims think Islam is incompatible with democracy. Now, as Islamists prepare to take power on all levels, thanks to democracy, they are not, in general and at root, prone to compromise over issues of symbolic significance. They want to mainline the Shari'a, but without fiqh, shari'a cannot be comprehended or applied judiciously. As one of the few non-Muslim social scientists who has read the Arab texts and studied the roots and progress of Islamic law traditions, it is easy to see where the Islamists err. Muhammad's practice at Medina was not that proffered by the religion, which grew up generations later. Muhammad favored the common man, gave to women rights to divorce, inherit, be free of abuse and slander. He had no need of a clergy

Those who loudly call themselves Muslims, who pray before each other, wear robes and long beards, who study the Qur'an even if Arabic is a mystery - these people have no right to proclaim themselves more Islamic than secular educated men and women who read books, who strive for understanding and to find just prescriptions to an array of pressing social problems.
 

Arab Revolutions: The Global Implications       

 حلال الثورة -- الآثار العالمي

The Arab protests of 2011 did not occur in a vacuum. Demonstrations in Iran in the spring and summer of 2009 set several precedents: the use of social media to organize and direct demonstrations, in Tehran; the murderous response of the regime affected observers world-wide. Then there were, all summer and autumn, the continual demonstrations in south western Algeria, centered on Tindouf, led by the Polisario, protesting the failure of Morocco to obey UN rulings about holding a referendum on independence for the Sahrawis. All through the summer and autumn news of these demonstrations reverberated with the Algerian public. There were several self-immolations. And it was in Algeria in January 8, 2011 that the protesters dared to disobey orders by the police to disband and obey curfew. In our view, that discovery, that they could disobey a wrong law, and its enforcers, was the key precursor.

But each Arab nation had its own tradition(s), various competing narratives. In Egypt, on Jan. 1, there was the dastardly firebombing of a Coptic church in Alexandria. A week later, the immolation of a fruit-seller in Tunisia, Muhammad Bouazizi. There were several immolation suicides in Algeria in the previous weeks. All these were precursors. These were the matches which lit the fires of rebellion.

But one can step back, and see underlying causes, like a deteriorating natural environment, globally. The vicious unprecedented drought affecting Russia in the summer of 2009 - the Kremlin canceled all grain exports, forcing the price of bread to climb steeply in all countries importing wheat.

Foolish policies in  the USA also weigh in - ethanol subsidies. The precipitous rise in food prices stem directly from these ethanol subsidies passed by Congress.  Too many farmers decided not to grow food but crops which can be used to make ethanol, which can be mixed with gasoline and diesel. Many millions outside America suffered - the poorest of the poor.

But remember, the discontent in the Arab world goes back some three decades. More recently, the unrest arose from the doubling of food prices in the three years 2008-2011, the lack of housing, the lack of jobs and dissatisfaction with greedy arbitrary governments. All these governments specialized by shifting the burden of taxation back upon the middle and lower classes, the so-called masses.

Of course each Arab nation has had its own internal dynamic: other factors weigh in long before. In each case, events took their own course. Every nation is different. Only Egypt, Libya and Tunisia had successful revolutions (thus far), but even these have not been consolidated. Yet progress towards democracy (or jobs) has been made in all those Arab countries where people chose to demonstrate.

Something so big as the Arab revolutions would naturally impact regionally and internationally. First, the unrest provoked unrest, from one Arab nation to another. Then there were the shock waves, emanating from Arabia via electronic media, impacting squarely on non-democratic regimes, like China, Burma and North Korea, effecting long-awaited changes in domestic politics and policy.

Turkey's modernist Islam-inspired government had carefully plotted its rise in regional influence, a veritable love-fest with Iran and Syria. But that collapsed with the outbreak of public unrest in Syria – and its vicious suppression by the Ba'thi Asad regime. Now Turkish armor and recon units are maneuvering along its border with Syria, behind which Syrian army and intel units are maneuvering so they can slaughter their own citizens.

The European Union has canceled its oil contracts with Syria. Today, sanctions have reached the Syrian National Bank, which will surely impact on the monied classes. The economic crisis will push Syria back forty years. Regrettably, the sanctions impact mostly on the middle class and the poor. We expect more and more Syrians will attempt to flee Syria. This may have a destabilizing effect on Lebanon.

Yemen has seen crippling unrest for some eight months now. The economy no longer provides enough food and fuel. Forget about the jobs – the entire country is coming apart. Yemen has some nine distinct regions, each with its own narrative and traditions. After three months of stand-off in Sana'a, unrest spread to Ta'iz and Abdan province in the extreme south. Clearly, Islamist groups, many with connections to Al Qaida, have sought to exploit the confusion.

The Saudis have been waging a low-intensity war against extremists in eastern Yemen for several decades. But the Americans became involved after repeated attempts by Al Qaida of the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) to kill American citizens. In 2010, the hunt began for Anwar Awlaki, chief of the AQAP, who is, or was, an American citizen. He was killed last week by a Hellfire missiles launched from an UAV. That attack was followed up on the 14th of Oct. when a series of UV attacks took out other leaders and bomb-makers of the AQAP.  All this was happening in Shabwa province, in  the Hadramaut. The terrorists then turned on their hosting population, blowing up the NG pipeline coming in from Gulf of Aden. A huge flare is currently illuminating the dessicated wadi and weird table scarps typical of this very remote and fascinating part of the Arab world. Those tribes likely passed intel onto the Yemeni gov., which informed the Americans. The US UAVs were probably based at Misirah Island, part of the Sultanate of Oman. Land a UAV on deck of a CV aircraft carrier is too risky.

The Americans are convinced that they can kill Al Qaida and its affiliates by assassinating its top leaders. They have been doing that in Afghanistan, Pakistan and Iraq, as well as in the Yemen. But these cryptic Islamist organs are populist in nature, so have little problems replacing leadership. There will always be Islamists blaming the West and Israel for everything, ready to martyr themselves, to win paradise, direct from God.

The US with all of its resources, just did not have enough knowledge of the language and the literatures of the people it was occupying, so even with all of its material resources, the US armed forces and intel units have only been 60% effective. US soldiers and agents on the street cannot even explain their own justifications and objectives, no less manipulate, 'guide,' another people, politically.

Some American Republicans like to say that George W. Bush triggered the Arab revolutions by invading Iraq in 2003 and calling for democracy. Our analysis, however, finds no relation, no cause and effect. The Arab revolts have their own causes and precursors, as we explained.

The Americans are fond of saying “Israel is the only democracy in the Middle East.”

It does not matter that the bedouin elect their chiefs, that Arab monarchs keep their doors open to even the lowest petitioner, that they often use 'a show of hands' in making collective decisions. It doesn't matter that Israeli democracy is only for the Jews, not for Christians, Druze or Muslims.

Israel is isolated. It is led by 'the great whiner' B. Netanyahu He of course fully believes that the Jews are God's chosen, that they can do what they want, that the Bible can be used as a blueprint for a new Israeli empire. The American Republicans generally back this racist unscientific and inhumane annexation of the West Bank of Palestine, even if Arab Christians lose everything. They are the self-acclaimed 'christian' Zionists.

Other Americans see Israel as a modern nation 'people like us,' but the right-wing Likud party is beholden to several small religious parties (eg. Shas), and these certainly do not promote a modern world view, but a narrow sectarian racist one. Yet the Americans buy in to that because they once read the Bible in Sunday school.

Such blatant grotesque betrayal of its own core ideal augurs poorly for Arab-American relations. Osama bin Laden did win in America, for now many, if not most Americans, now hate Islam, thanks again to Republican 'leaders' out to win votes by trashing Islam and the Arabs. What, are we back in the Dark Ages?

We point this pout, for there is reason to believe that US relations with Arab states has slipped even further. When in September the US vetoed a UN decision to upgrade its relations with the Palestinians, the king of Saudi Arabia announced that 'the special relationship (with the Americans) will be over.” Since the US takes nearly 25% of its crude oil from Saudi Arabia, there should be cause for concern in the United States. But no. If the Saudis cut the oil, the US will invade the kingdom. Those plans have long been on the table.

Even if the Israeli extremists succeed in driving all the Arabs out, Palestine will always remain stolen land, and so an aggravating factor, one precludes all peaceful conciliation and economic cooperation. But many American Republicans and people of Jewish ethnicity acquiesce in 'a cleansing of the land given by God to the Israelites.' How stupid and cruel can we be? How unseemly for a nation as big and as diverse as the USA, to take a narrow, ethnic-sectarian viewpoint, one supporting the gradual slow-motion genocide of the Palestinian nation.

Why cannot the law be used? Is it too discredited? Israel and Palestine were created together, in a two-state arrangement. Arab leaders outside of Palestine did not accept it, and attacked. The Jews also attacked the Arabs in the hours leading up to independence in 1948. The Palestinian people were not involved, except as target for ruthless ethnic cleansing. Yet Israel has long pursued collective punishment against them. It is not possible to live a normal, free, decent life, in the West Bank: some 500 Israeli checkpoints made any movement very difficult. Arab farmers cannot even make repairs on their own land. And of course, the Israelis super-intensive use of water for lawns and swimming pools, has already left some Palestinian villages with no good water.

The Arab Spring inspired mass demonstrations in Israel, from July into September. The protesters demanded more housing, jobs and some movement on peace. They were on the streets of Tel Aviv and Haifa for about a month, till Palestinian terrorist used the new open border with Egypt, to sneak into the Sinai, then, with help from the bedouin, to move south to Eilat, where they killed eight Israeli tourists. The IDF, trigger happy as always, stupidly killed 5 Egyptian officers. So relations with Egypt tanked, leading to the burning of the Israeli embassy in Cairo. But it also caused the closing of the demonstrations in Israel. The Arabs cannot afford to alienate liberal-thinking Israelis and Euro-American Jewry by resuming terror or by sabre-rattling.

Libya is full of surprises. Today, in Tripoli, some 20 pro-Qaddafi fighters emerged suddenly, firing in all directions. NTC democratic fighters converged from all directions. This sort of thing could have been anticipated, for it occurred in the Abu Salim section of Tripoli – long a pro-Qaddafi community of villas and palaces, as well as the site of the most infamous prison After a month of patient diplomacy, Sirte is finally falling to the NTC fighters.

Where is the old man? Then mad dog of Tripoli? As we explained months ago, he is in the south, taken care of by close Tuareg friends. They sleep in tents and move using camels. There is no way either NATO or the NTC can locate such a small party in such a vast area.

The revolution in Libya has had strong implications for some African states. Mali, Niger, Chad have all contributed mercenaries to Qaddafi. Qaddafi himself has many friends and many investments in south central Africa. Will these rich well-armed Tuareg now agitate for rebellion in their own countries? Will Mali once again be at war with itself?

The plight of the Tuareg has long been of note. Morocco, Algeria, Mauritania, Libya, Tunisia, Chad, Niger and Mali – each has its own narrative. The kidnapping of foreign tourists and aid workers has made the issue international. Again, a small group of desperate hotheads hijack a whole nation. In Libya, the NTC, taking Sabha and the Fezzan, have applied collective punishment, chasing many Tuaregs from their homes. These had been settled by Qaddafi, and actually achieved some integration with the rest of Libya. Because some Tuareg clans supported Qaddafi, all must pay.

Much of the oppression of the Tuareg stem from simply being a nomadic folk. That's a wide-spread prejudice, going back at least 10,000 years. But it is wrong, economically, culturally and politically. Only nomads can make use of the dry steppe-lands. They provide needed goods to settled communities. In general, nomadic groups preserve valuable elements of a national culture, which should be investigated, not rubbed out. The great Neolithic revolution involved animal-breeding and transhumance as much as settled communities practicing agriculture.

Of course the textbook histories point to all the problems and conflicts between nomads and farmers. Certainly, mayhem was always an option. But the view is a distortion, because the much longer periods of peace between them, is no remarked upon: it was seen as natural, even essential. The nomads provide milk, yogurt, cheese, meat, leather, and living animals to the farmers, while the farmers supplied the nomads with much-needed grains, metal utensils, weapons, etc.

Our own views of civilization need be adjusted accordingly. The civilizations following the Sumerians all featured nomads in power, for they controlled the land trade routes, just as the sea nomads controlled the sea routes. Cities are seen as a culmination of settled life, but obviously they needed the cooperation of various nomad groups to maintain routes to other cities. It may be argued that the state arose out of this weakness of cities in the face of nomadic predation. But close inspection shows that the armies themselves were nomadic, both in personnel and in technology.

The great Muslim civilizations all featured nomads coming to power. Be it Mecca and Medina in the Hijaz, the Ummayads in Damascus, the Abbasids in Baghdad, Balkh in Afghan Turkestan, the Persian empires including the Safavid, as well as the Seljukid, Osmanli and Timurid civilizations – all owe much to pastoral nomadism.

Finally, the Arab revolutions of 2010-2112 were, are, simultaneous with very severe economic stress in Europe and the USA (and elsewhere). The collapse of the housing market bubble in the US in late 2007, seems to have been caused by the sudden rise in gasoline and diesel prices in 2006-08. Energy cost was the needle which punctured the housing bubble, which in turn, exposed egregious corporate malfeasance, reinforced by unrestrained greed. The full implications of this near-collapse of western civilization have yet to be felt or seen. But that makes these factors more powerful. What we do not know will hurt us. But in the USA, politics have become so jammed up, by Republican 'leaders,' that willful ignorance wins out.

So all those hoping that the USA might represent and promote its own principles might best sober up: the Republican 'leaders' do not engage in reason. Like all ideologues, they are dead certain. No appeal to history, to the lessons of the past, is useless.; And they don't care is everybody else gets hurt.

Wealthy people and corporations in the USA do not pay taxes. Republicans are demanding that all the progress from the Renaissance through the Enlightenment up till today, be rejected: let care of the poor and the elderly and the sick and the disabled be abandoned. Of course they have no answers for creating jobs.

So revolution may be coming to the USA as well. The rich right wing did not foresee that the have-nots will take to the streets. Will American cops fire on their own people? Yes, in Texas and the south. But march leaders are savvy enough. In the USA as in Arabia, people may have to die for the law enforcement and its directors to be shamed. Kent State all over again. Cops do know that many lawyers are assisting the protesters, that unwarranted arbitrary violence and arrests will backfire.

The Arab revolutions had some affect on the Chinese government. It has opened itself to some criticism, to petitions from the discontent. But they will not tolerate mass demonstrations – they fear them – which means they will use the army to shoot the people.

Demonstrations broke out in Europe as well. Thanks again to high oil prices, the conservative British gov. cut expenses by some 30%, not hesitating to cut programs for the poor and the disabled and the students.

The economies of Mediterranean Europe are in danger of default. Since northern Europeans are loathe to bail out these fun-in-the-sun economies, Greece, Italy, Portugal and Spain, threaten the EU experiment. Or so it might seem.

October 14-16: The Occupy Wall Street movement catches on and spreads around the &US and then the world.  Many of these demonstrations were small and were not reported or picked up by the media. In Rome, black-masked anarchists hijack the protest, instigating police attacks on it. Elsewhere, it was peaceful. In New York, Mayor Bloomberg is keeping it cool. 

                                                                                                              By John Paul Maynard

The author is the moderator/instructor for the on-line discussion group on Islamic civilization, the Graduate Alumni Association, Harvard University, Cambridge, Massachusetts. To see the author's studies of Islamic land law and the genuine Islamic reform tradition, log on to: http://www.middleeastspeculum.blogspot.com.    For accurate info and analysis of the USA, its decline, log on to: http://speculumUSA.blogspot.com.

                                                 

A Call for Compromise دعوة لتسوية

دعوة لتسوية

A Call for Compromise

“My people will not agree on an error” said Muhammad in Medina, opening the ways of peaceful dissident. The corollary is that the community will coalesce around a truth, that unanimous consent is required for any decision. This may have worked well in 7^th century Medina, amongst an enlightened and tolerant populace. A modern society is many time more complex; it features convergence of cultures and technologies. One can also trust that, historically, ignorant and dominant men in high places have, one way or another, debased and even ruined life for millions of ordinary folk. We see that today, particularly in war and in financial speculation.

Looking back seven months, at the birth of the Arab Spring, we calculate the number killed (unarmed protesters and soldiers refusing to fire on them) at 24,000 with another 140,000 missing. Libya, Syria, Yemen, Egypt, Tunisia, Iraq, Bahrain, Sudan, Somalia, have all seen recent violence, still on-going. In and amidst these nations one looks for any sentiment of conciliation, any forgiveness, or any compromise. But it is desert, harsh and unforgiving.

All these governments now guilty of killing their own unarmed protesting citizens have offered to talk it over. Yemen's president Saleh agreed to leave office after six months. During the Libyan war of independence, Qaddafi and his children agreed to reform. In Bahrain, the Sunni king M. Hamad ibn Isa al Khalifa, opened the parliament to elective representation, inviting Shi'i leaders to state their grievances. Even in Syria, where the situation is truly dire, the Al Assad regime expresses its willingness to reform, to do what the people want to do.

But in each of these situations, the opposition refuses to talk or agree to any step-by-step process by which a new, better government can be put into office. This inability to compromise has direct implications – the sheer force of the army and secret police can now shoot you for blocking traffic. Why such suicidal behavior?

The main reason is that the discontent goes back some four decades. The second reason is that too much blood has been unjustly shed for any talks, any ceasefire. The protesters want revenge. The third reason is that a steady diet of intense demonization of one's enemy makes it impossible to even think in terms of compromise. In other words, one's cognition is faulty, failing to credit the 'enemy' with any legitimacy.

Our morality certainly does not derive at root from any book. Babies at age eight months exhibit altruistic behavior. Our legal system is based on English common law, which is based Saxon, Jute and Angle law, in other words, the laws on Germanic tribalism. The rights of women, electing one's leaders, trials by one's peers – juries – but this basic ideal of equality – all this comes from our so-called barbaric ancestors living for many centuries in the open steppe of Central Asia.

But the Bible exhibits some potent correctives. “Thou shalt not bring false witness against another.” Imagine what would happen if people really believed this. Our collective political life could then finally focus on the very real problems, like getting enough food, gasoline, and electrical power. The Hebrew Bible also has God say: “Do not use my name to commit harm. If you do, you will be punished severely.”

(Exodus 20.7).

Only in some countries is any compromise seen. Jordan, Oman, Saudi Arabia, Morocco and Algeria have evolved into dialogue and reform. In Libya on this day the democratic freedom fighters broke in Sirte and are driving the last pro-Qaddafi loyalists from room to room. Most Libyans support amnesty and reconciliation. Just because you worked in government, or even for Qaddafi directly, does not in itself condemn you to prosecution.

In Tunisia and Egypt, the revolutions seemed guaranteed. But half a year later, it is clear that the army in each country, plus many former friends of the regime, has rolled back certain democratic reforms, keeping power all along. Just as bad, the economies did not improve, prompting widespread unrest. But behind the scenes, in the cafes of Cairo and Alexandria, in the mosques of Al Mina and Asyut, political leaders have been talking policy and reform. Early on, there were some weird 'marriages' – like the one behind technocrat Muhammad al Baradai, and the Muslim Brotherhood. Last week we examined the role of Islamists in government in Egypt, finding that they concentrate of social service on the most local level.

There is wide-spread confusion about Islam. The Islamists and ordinary Muslims think they serve Islam as 'slaves of God.' But the Qur'an makes it clear that God does not need human prayers, that Islam serves men and women, that it should never be forced or coerced. So secular people are hardly excluded from Islam, especially since most have dedicated their lives to providing food or services to the nation.

The Islamists I observed and lived with briefly, live competitively, praying in front of each other, mouthing the Qur'an without really examining it. Very few Muslim scholars have real training in the social sciences, or access to the latest discoveries, so Islam's origins, it's core message, is lost for want of rational analysis.

One thing all Muslim terrorists have in common was, is, ignorance of Islam. One thing all Americans and Europeans share is – ignorance of Islam.

Muhammad was a modest man, without pretense. He never wished to be a prophet. Though he did have a background in law, he opted not to be a universal law giver. He had no use for a clergy. He left no texts – the Qur'an was pieced together two generations later, from scraps of  writing on the scapulae of camels and horses. Muhammad had no scheme of world conquest – the Qur'an told him that Islam was just for the Arabs. He left no instructions, no successor or any means of choosing a successor except through elections. In short, Muhammad Qureyshi failed to organize his patrimony, his legacy, because he did not think himself so important.

Contrast this to the pride, often emotionally expressed, of many Muslim men. It is important that they control, even enslave, their women (against Muhammad's laws). It is safe to say that if your religion is reinforcing your ego, then it is false. For the blessing is to step aside from mere human identity as a concept, to find oneself alive in Something much higher, much more alive than even family relations or teacher-student bonds.

Any religion or sect that claims to be the exclusive way to God, or even if it claims to be the best, is immediately compromised. For such a sense of superiority is unseemly in the eyes of the Spirit. Mankind is of course much smaller than we assume as we live our lives. Belief that one has the answer, the only answer, disqualifies one's little group from the cross-fertilization that would be required to reach genuine human perfection.

There are millions in Arabia and in the USA who hate each other. The Americans will hate the whole people – all the Muslims are suspect, while the Arabs generally hate only the US government. The reasons are clear, if not entirely rational. The American invasion of Iraq in 2003 has created a bleeding wound that does not heal. America's blanket support for Israel's expansion into Arab Palestine has certainly alienated most Muslims. The US government is seen as hypocritical, and hypocrisy breeds anger.

But the Muslim states hate Israel, as they were taught to. Hatred of Jews is taught in their schools. Indoctrinating children is a sin in itself. A child's world is no longer innocent, joyful, perfect. Such hatred precludes any peaceful settlement. Even if the Palestinian leaders could cut a deal, there will be a small but determined number who commit terror. And Jews also teach hatred. And these so-called spiritual teachers have compromised themselves: the more extreme ultra-Zionists are like the militant Salafis, in that they cannot be critical to the thoughts in their own heads, but serve to reinforce their hatred by just being together. All this prevents practical concrete solutions – peace.

The Ba'athi Syrian government has long used the Palestinian issue to assist the coercion of the population. The dominance of the military in Egypt and Syria, Libya and Yemen, is in part causing the poverty that prompted the revolutions. The army is traditionally seen as being above politics, pure, loyal, even if not justified or productive. But they are essentially unproductive organizations, eating up the bulk of a nation's discretionary spending. Officers pensions and healthcare is the greatest cost, but this is true in the USA as well.

The time has come where any progress depends on talking with one's adversaries. Trust must be built, but the quickest way is just to see through one's own attitudes and prejudices. The ideologue is certain, the scientist does not know. So risk it. Or maybe the democratic opposition needs to be told to compromise.

It is such a colossal train wreck, these imperfect half-revolutions. The various societies all polarized. Now they can't re-focus and come together. All this blurry vision lets the extremists set the agenda. In Bahrain, the Yemen, in Egypt as well, the original protesters were educated secular people. But the youth took charge. Slowly the Islamists come out of their caves. But jihad is no longer the call. The real war was, is, against one's self – the jihad al nafs – against the ego.

No longer can we see these political processes as polarized between secular and sectarian. Jihadism has shot its wad. "A growing number of Muslims now want to use their faith as a means to an end, rather than end in itself - or as a way to find answers rather than being the answer itself. For them, Islam is often more about identity than piety, about Muslim values rather than Islamic ideology." (Robin Wright, Rock the Casbah, p.46. in 2011.)

                                                                                                 -John Paul Maynard

The Mullahs Weigh In الملالي في وزن

الملالي في وزن

The Mullahs Weigh In

Islam was not the cause or issue behind the Arab revolts, but, as elections approach, Islamists are aggressively seeking power. In Egypt, Libya, Bahrain, the Yemen, Syria, Jordan, Algeria, Mauritania, uneducated mullahs and imams are slowly tightening their holds over neighborhoods and villages.

Egypt – The Muslim Brotherhood is upset that Egypt's Supreme (Military) Council is giving one third of the seats in parliament, to independents. The MB had calculated that they could win almost a half of the seats, but the secular leaders of the Egyptian revolution, are not going to let that happen. Though the Egyptian MB claims to be “the only organized religious party,' actually, there exists many other religious groups, like the many sufi tariqats. The sufi moderates do not care to be absorbed and denied by the mass organ MB. After all, the MB grew out of Hasan Banna's hatred, ignorance and arrogance. To them, the only problem is the western nations. In this they deviated from the original Muslim reform tradition, initiated by Jalal ad Din Al Afghani, which saw the clergy as the main obstacle to progress.

The MB, were they to take the power, would quickly disable all the other parties as it puts through its narrow, selective interpretation of fiqh and shari'a. Are the Egyptians up for this? What if the economy contracts further? On Oct. 1, the military shura announces a change in the election law, so that supporters of Hosni Mubarak can never hold office. The MB threatened a boycott of the elections by its many members throughout Egypt.  The MB in Egypt have a bad record, and 30 years of repression, has further embittered them. We are right to assume re-polarizations, where the secular intellectuals join with former technocrats and business leaders, to prevent the psuedo-Muslims from gaining power. 

There are some spheres of social interaction in which Islamists have a role.  They should join the neighborhood Muslims and other secular leaders, in providing social services.  Just because you dress in white and pray together does not mean you can run a country or even claim knowledge of Islam. The great limit of almost all Muslim scholars is that they have not looked at the Muslim religion using the skills, techniques and sources of modern social sciences.  Islam does have a role, but the mullahs, muftis and qadis are not even able to analyze land law laid down by Muhammad at Medina, and the Qur'an. The great Muslim jurists talked specifically about waqf or dedicated land, about common land (miri) and  iqta' - land given by the emir to a specific individual;  ijra' or rented land, leased land;  dead land is barren land that no one owns but which can be revived; and finally: the simple free hold of a plot by a man or his brothers - such an arrangement goes directly against the Shari'a. The Qur'an and Muhammad wanted home ownership to be divided, that a mother and a grandmother and sister all get a tranche . 

The point is this: real Islam can be used to combat the usurping Islamists. Terrorism is condemned in the Qur'an, at every step: from the plotting, to the execution, to damnation in hell. Women are given definite rights. But Muslim education is so limited, so poor, that it rather rare to find scholars east or west, who Arabic well enough to examine the actual legal writings. Egyptians

لا يرتكبون الشر أو الأذى به باسمي. إذا قمت بذلك ، سوف أضع النفايات روحك.

Do not use my name to cause harm. If you do, I will lay waste your soul.

Libya – The Libyan democratic forces, now under command of the National Transitional Council, saw one Islamist group, assassinate its commander (M. Yunis) back in July. The Benghazi liberals arrested the killers, neutralizing the Islamist terrorists. But that's one cell amongst some 20. It was the jihadist Bilhaj who commanded the Islamist forces which broke into Qaddafi's compound. He is the leading Islamist member in the NTC.

Note that we do not call these groups Muslim. Islam mean s surrender, surrender to God, but these groups use the religion to justify their narrow, mean, violent ideology. The world is full of prayers, but prayers do little. As the scripture says: “Never use my name to cause harm. If you do, I'll lay waste to your soul.”

The self-acclaimed 'Muslim experts' tell the people that Islam is opposed to 'western' democracy. But that is wrong, inaccurate. Muhammad said “The government must consult with the people at every step.” He also called for the election of the Khalif. The first four 'rashidun' khalifs were elected by the elders of Medina. Finally, Arab nomads generally elect their chiefs – the sheikhs.

Sirte and Bani Walid remain besieged. Many civilians remain, and the NTC does not want to push them into the Qaddafi camp by attacking and killing civilians. We did see the capture of the biggest city in the south, Sabha, in the Fezzan. It is the main town for all the 20 some villages stretching to Ghat, on the southeastern Algerian border. Some three hundred miles north, also on the border with Algeria, is the ancient city of Ghadames. The town traded with Africa across the Sahara, and with the coastal Libyans to the north. On September 28, there was fighting in Ghadames. It seems that the settled folk are ethnically cleansing the native Tuaregs. Or is it pro-Qaddafi forces firing on anti-Qaddafi demonstrators?

The Tuaregs are the Berbers, longidolized by Qaddafi. (He lived in a tent). The Mad Dog of Tripoli may have been born outside Sirte, to Berber/Bedouin parents, but he returned to the remote, isolated Fezzan to go to high school. Sabha turned Qaddafi into a revolutionary, of sorts. Periodically, he tried to show solidarity with the Tuareg, but eventually came to believe they were a n untrustworthy folk to be corralled and settled, using force if necessary. So Qaddafi's reputation with the Tuaregs is equivocal.

NTC officials claimed that Qaddafi was seen in Ghat, on the border with Algeria, on or around Sept.. Regrettably, the NTC does not trust the Tuareg, seeing them as a privileged tribe. In Sabha and Awbari, and Marzuk, Tuaregs were driven from their homes, which were then burned. The Libyan Tuareg are part of a larger confederation of Berber tribes, from Algeria, Mali, Niger, who are bound to come and fight Tuareg enemies in the Libyan Fezzan. Strangely, the coastal Libyans are not admitting the nomads. But only the nomads can control the Libya's immense south.

On the 29^th of Sept., the NTC, Libya's lawful gov., spoke of inaugurating new ministries for a Libyan government., plus elections, and some basic rights. A democratic constitution will eventually be promulgated. But the immediate problem is controlling some 100 militia organs, each armed to the teeth. For example, some 48 militia groups fought in and around Tripoli.The opposition is so diverse that these fighters cannot even be put into categories. Incredibly, monarchists abound.  The Libyans did not forget the wisdom of the royal Senussi teaching brotherhood. That Sufi wisdom was very low key. It was of course the Sanusi emir who led the resistance against the Italians. It is a way, a way to hold Libya together.

Syria - The demonstrations began at the stone mosque of Dera'a al Bilad, over the detention of some teenagers accused of painting anti-government graffiti on walls. That was over six months ago. The unrest spread to Latakia (led by a Sunni cleric), to Homs, Suweida, and Deir Az Zaur in the east, on the Euphrates. Hama rose up. Again, we see peaceful protests become violent – riots, direct assaults on gov. ministries and arsenals. In Dera', rioters burned down valuable buildings. The government shot down rioters, and its own troops who refused to fire on civilians. The unrest spread, week by week, till some 2,700 Syrians had been killed, and another 20,000 missing. Now the Syrian army is attacking Rastan and Homs. They announce their own casualty figures.

The Ba'athi regime of the Al Assad brothers and their Alewite clique appears able to vanquish the 'terrorists' and 'foreign agents.' But can such conflict be sustained? Homs, Hama, Der'a, Suweida, Latakia, Rastan, Deir Az Zaur together with the villages surrounding these towns, have been repressed. For months they've been without water, electrical power, or the freedom to walk around outside. We are worried that Syria will become a humanitarian disaster area. Can the gov. even control its borders? Some small arms have been coming into Syrian over Mount Lebanon. Sunnis arming Sunnis, Shi'a arming Shi'a. No solution appears possible. How about a ceasefire?  The democratic opposition is unarmed, and do not want a big shoot out with the regime. So it is up to Bashar and Mater Al Assad The democrats will not agree to any legal, step-by-step reform process. They do not trust Bashar al Assad. Even if he and his regime agrees to step down with blanket immunity from prosecution, the revolutionaries will not talk to them, for the rebels want revenge, 'justice,'. Too much blood has been shed. But such victim hood augurs poorly for the next twelve months.

Saudi Arabia – There is a long history of royal resistance to fanatic Wahhabi Islamists. Ibn Saudi allied with them, in his bid to take over the Hashimite shrines of Mecca and Medina and create the Saudi state.. Like the Muslim Brotherhood, the Wahhabis are only interested in surface appearances: the shape and length of your beard, your clothes, being seen at prayers, the mouthing of the Qur'an, etc. This superficiality makes possible, step by step, the killing of innocents, even other Muslims. Islam has matured a bit in the Kingdom. Why? Many of the Wahhabi mullahs appointed to the big Saudi-built mosques outside of Arabia, proved downright embarrassing. Many of these clerics supported the political radicalization, the preparation of the youth for jihad, even acts of terror. They themselves demonstrate none of the self-critical logic which is the very root of Islam. They take no blame. Very, very few of those Wahhabi Hanbali clerics ever studied any social science. So what do they know?  Many propagate hatred, just hatred.

Last week the king announced that women will eventually be able to vote in municipal elections. He also overturned the sentence (10 lashes) given to a woman driver in Riyadh. No doubt leading Wahhabi clerics were miffed if not outraged. The repression of women goes directly against Muhammad's practice at Medina. For example, Islam gives property ownership not just to the men, but to all family members. Human rights advocates ask for the election of parliamentary reps. But Saudi Arabia does not even have a parliament. It is governed by the shura council appointed by the king. The campaign to elect parliamentarian representatives constitutes the leading cause for Saudi Arabia's closet opposition.

Bahrain – Twenty doctors were sentenced to prison for 5 through 15 years. The crimes relate to dissidents using the general hospital as a center for rallies and more aggressive operations, aimed at removing the government. How unfortunate that the original leaders of the secular, educated resistance got themselves usurped and hijacked by Shi'i imams and their poor, young activists. Even as they occupied Pearl Square in Manama, the demonstrators tried to differentiate themselves from the many religious and ethnic dissidents, but the moderates were infiltrated, and the revolution taken over by young agents of the clergy. The police fired on the crowd, a bad mistake, as it permitted the radical imami activists, to redefine the movement as a direct bid to overthrow the king. It was a tragic escalation, and no one can be sure who bears greater blame: the regime and its police, or the Shi'i hot heads.

With all the wounded and dead, the general hospital became a tactical center, of sorts. It was taken over for three weeks, becoming a de facto coordination center for the resistance. Hence the prosecution of some 20 personnel out of some 2,400 who work there. These 20 doctors allegedly barricaded themselves off from the rest of the hospital, turning away Sunnis injured by the rioters. Weapons were found stocked in the hospital. Many outside commentators reject this narrative. In their view, the doctors were targeted because they gave interviews to the foreign media in which they condemned the violence, the savage response of the police. Either way it augurs poorly for the future. The tragedy is this: the demonstrators did not, and will not, join the Sunnis in Bahrain's parliament. Reform has been offered, via legal means, for some ten years. But such is the Shi'i leadership that they will only settle for the removal of the government.

The Yemen – No sooner did Ali Saleh arrive in Sana'a, than he ordered his troops to open fire on opposition positions. Many unarmed demonstrators were caught in the crossfire. Part of the army follows dissident Gen. Ali Mohsen. He in turn is tied to the Hashid tribe, led by Sheikh Sadeq al Ahmar. They were the ones who almost killed Saleh some three months ago. Naturally, they are Saleh's chief target. Whether the Revolutionary Guards will do his work remains to be seen.

Yemen is coming apart, resuming a de-centralization mode characteristic of Yemen's history. Basically, the tribes control all movement. Yemen's royalists are the Zaidi Shi'a, in the mountains of the north. There, they've joined the Al Houthi tribe, preventing army occupation of Sa'ada and other towns. The entire south of the country has its own twin agenda: the army tries to exert control over installations (like the port of Aden), and roads, while Al Qaida and its affiliates infiltrate surrounding villages. The Tahima, on the Red Sea coast, is the only quiet place. The main port of Al Hudayda is functioning. Out in the east, there is an array of tribes and clans, in the Hadramaut up through Shibam and Tarim, and the wild northeast of Yemen, centered in Minwakh and Hisn al 'Qabr. Here lives Anwar al Awlaki 'the American,' al Qaida's most dangerous operative. Using drones (probably flying from Masirah Island) and jet strikes from carrier-based bombers, the US DOD and CIA hope to kill him. FLASH:  report of Awlaki being killed by a drone Hellfire, Sept.30.

Again, here is a case where a leader offers to engage in a step-by-step reform, leading to his retirement. But the opposition, led by extremist youths armed with cell phones, has not proven able to pursue such legal step-by-step democratization, even if it calls for the quick retirement of the president. The Yemeni opposition in Sana'a was originally a movement by educated secular dissidents, arising largely over the lack of water, electric power, inexpensive food and fuel, housing and jobs. But other dissidents joined in, taking control: the shebab (the youth) and tribes and labor unions and professional organs.
 

                                                                                                                  By John Paul Maynard