Middle East Speculum Report by John Paul Maynard
Arab Revolutions 2011 Escalation Feb. 18 2011
These three days (Feb.17-19) featured simultaneous demonstrations in most Arab nations, except Qatar, Kuwait, Oman, the UAE and Mauritania. Non-Arab Iran, Djibouti and Kazakhstan are also in turmoil. The causes are all shared: unemployment, soaring food and fuel costs, a crippling lack of affordable housing, cronyism, corruption and misrule, and police oppression – the lifting of emergency powers put in place by the army – plus constitutional reforms allowing for some sort of representation.
Egypt has only been doing this for some 6,000 years, so it is not surprising that no one voices any personal wish to be president, publicly. An uprising without leaders suggests that the government, too, will and can be free of official and military 'bids,' or any strong man.
History has not seen such a phenomena: a whiplash of protest, spreading all over the Arab world, simultaneously. No one knows where it will end. It is clear, however, that progressive people will be free to demonstrate whenever and wherever they want. Big demonstrations are also happening in Belgium and the United States (Wisconsin).
The shebab (youth) are forming their own countries. The Muslim youth are the best organized. But remember, teenagers do not have adult brains – the frontal cortex is still sorting itself out. So expect impulse, a black and white way of thinking, demonization, sports-team allegiances. Armed with cell phones and the internet, these adolescents can apparently move crowds of tens of thousands, tactically.
But the government can intercept these messages, and move quickly to the threatened building. That's what happened in Egypt on the night of 9th of Feb., when the shebab tried to seize the parliament building. The government had tanks brought up. This same thing happened in Bahrain on the 18th-19th of Feb., and in Libya from the 17th to the 19th. Of course the progressive patriots of democratic Iran demonstrated these large-scale tactical movements, dispersing to another part of town, when the government thugs reach a critical mass.. (Note: this is day three of big running demonstrations and street battles in Teheran).
LIBYA -
Qadahfy turns his special forces and commandos on the people, shooting them in many places, not just al Baida, and Benghazi. It's the third day of escalating protests, and it is estimated that over one hundred democrats have been killed. But some police and army units may side with the people.
Protests started growing, in al Baida and Benghazi, till on the 18th, huge crowds – a cool one hundred thousand perhaps – flooded and took over, town squares and offices. Riot troops were fighting neighborhood by neighborhood, and in the Benghazi kasbah, even the rats are fleeing.
Qadahfy has done nothing to reform, unlike all the other potentates, except Iran. He has blocked his own top officials from many needed changes. Now he prays to God that his army holds.
Qadahfy would like to go back to the Fezzan, just to get away from the commotion, to think things through, but must stay in Triboli, where his top cops are instructed no doubt, to keep a sharp eye on their junior officers. That's Qadahfy's worst nightmare – that his younger troops and intel pol go for over to the people.
There were pro-government demonstrations, in Benghazi and Tripoli, but much smaller. Just a month ago any protester with a sign or a chant would have been shot (or worse) by the regime. But now Qadahfy cannot kill too many, for he has been following, since 2006, the bitter resentment and sense of vengeance, of the families and friends of those killed (some 1,200) in Baida security HQ in 2006.
All those many shura and committees and trade unions that Qadahfy set up, they were just 'rubber stamps.' But now look what has happened: these group are gaining some independence, even power. It seems east Libya might break free of control by Tripoli.
Qadahfy has been in power for 42 years, longest in the world. He wants 'in' to world forums.
So he just may graciously hand over some of his powers, not for his people, but to keep his command together, and avoid being pilloried by the Euro-American media, NGOs and governments.
BAHRAIN -
Bahrain's leaders exhibited poor form by viciously attacking protesters on the Pearl roundabout, Manama. That happened in early morning of Feb.17, while protesters slept in their tents. Four were killed, and today, the 18th, we here of running battles with the police and army, with many casualties. The authorities give no warning before opening fire. The hospitals are inundated, with many victims still lying on the pavement, no one able to get to them. Emir Hasan Khalifa apologizes on the air, appealing to 'the nation.'
The royal Khalifa clan always warned the Americans that democracy will end once the Iranian-backed Shi'a gain representation. Looking back over the past two decades, one can see earlier struggles, just as vicious as the present. In 1992 the government opened to Iran, setting up economic joint ventures, but by 1994, it was clear that the Iranian Revolutionary Guards commanded certain virulent Shi'i anarchist 'Islamists,' on the Island. A National Guard was created, led by Hamad Khalifa, till he appointed himself, not as emir, but as king. Vicious repression in March 1995, saw police use rubber bullets, tear gas, and the arrest of leaders. A policeman had been murdered and a Shi'a convictred and hung.
Violence flared again 1997. The evidence showed that Iran had direct control of core factions of disaffected Shi'a, and aimed to overthrow the monarchy. The Saudis were ready to intervene, and in fact, Saudi police were on the streets. The Bahrain Defense Forces (BDF) will not split over rights.
A Sunni crowd gathered at the Great Mosque, voicing support for the government. They know that weapons were found last night, when the Pearl tent city was 'collapsed.'
The violence over the past few days around Manama shows how seriously the Bahraini authorities take the protests. The protesters say they are not sectarian at all. But we know how easy it is for a few 'mock-Muslim crazies' to move outside the law.
Not poverty but psychological frustration and indignation have brought different groups together to protest the Khalifa dynasty, its refusal to put in place a functioning parliament. Seventy per cent of Bahrain is Shi'i, , some 26% are Sunni, plus tiny percentages of foreigners, Christians and even some Jews. Till now, political action in Bahrain pivots on sectarian/cultural issues, with a loose Shi'i coalition of some tens of thousands, expressing varying degrees of reform. The Khalifa family and their clients were 'over-prepared,' having hired hundreds of Syrian, Yemeni and Pakistani mercenaries to keep the riffraff down. But it is the educated secular people, families, which constitute the manifestation. Will they be hijacked by the Iranian-support Shi'i policial 'masters?'
It did look like a murder of the innocents, but not quite. Many of the protesters were armed by the 18th. One witnessed observed a protester aiming a laser at a helicopter. Like other uprisings, there is a smart gentle 'head and voice,' secular educated folk, but, as one looks deeper, there are others in the shadows – Islamic groups, like the dumbed-down Muslim Brotherhood, anarchists, members of extremist parties and secret cells. In Bahrain, conflict between the Shi'a majority and the Sunni government, has been going on for over twenty years. I have little doubt that Iranian intelligence has a presence in the Manama Pearl Circle demonstrations.
Yet Hamad Khalifa is not off the hook. He proclaimed himself 'king' instead of emir, in 2002. He was the former police chief, for a decade. Bahrain had troubled parliamentary elections in 2007, basically a 50-50 toss up between the Free National Movement (FNM and the Progressive Liberal Party (PLP). As in Egypt, explicit Muslim parties are banned. They need be vetted.
Spreading more of the wealth, through subsidies, and employment, has helped keep the lid on, till now..
EGYPT -
One week after Mubarak resigned, protesters are frustrated, because the power structure remains, the same cabinet, the same army and police commanders. Nor has the military offered to bring on protester candidates, to set up a new government. Now the army is being criticized for delay.
Today the 18th Feb. featured a big celebration 'manifestation, following Friday prayers.' Crowds were large, possibly one hundred thousand. Feelings towards the army is changing.
These revolutions should never lose their core aims. In each case the uprising stemmed from secular democrats, many educated, and their aims had nothing to do with ethnicity, class, or religious affiliations. Their complaints were political and economic.
In Egypt there is no chance that the Muslim Brothers will go for it – everybody is watching them - but eight or ten years from now, they may be in the government, fighting demonstrations also.
YEMEN -
Four dead, three in Aden, one in Ta'izz, which means the uprising has spread. Indeed, the independence movement of the south, will be using the peoples' frustrations, to push through their own agenda. Years ago we would fear communist penetration, more recently the Muslim Brotherhood, but South Yemen is different culturally from North Yemen, being more globally aware and sophisticated. They've received ancient influences from South Asia, and then from the British.
On the 18th, the bigger demonstrations (12,000 in Sana'a) prompt attacks by pro-gov. Protesters, with many injured, several killed. The numbers demonstrating have been increasing each day for some four days. Where will it lead? Ali Abdullah Saleh has been meeting with the various opposition groups over the past five years. He said he would not run again, and work to set up a representative government.
But his police are firing live ammunition, in Aden, in Ta'izz, where some twelve thousand are in open rebellion, and in Sana'a where we see an escalating situation.
Ali Saleh says he'll leave after safeguarding the Yemeni state. He must negotiate, but this takes time, and the demonstrators are impatient. Every delay looks like government stone-walling.
In the eyes of the demonstrators, there are stars, great aspirations to a normal life, but Yemen is very poor, its oil all but pumped out, and most critical, just a few years before water disappears in Sana'a.
JORDAN -
Big pro-government demonstrations attack anti-government demonstrators, eight injured, Feb.18th. The opposition is a new group – Islamists, students, bedouin, leftists – with no experience working together, are making a bid for representation. They demand reforms, like the re-institution of the teachers union, free elections for professional associations (once hotbeds of extremism), and other reforms, like a democratically-elected parliament and prime minister. The divisions inside Jordanian society are manifold. The king is a kind of umbrella that can cover all these identities. So the anti-gov. Jordanian protesters are not calling for regime change. Just reform. And that's been tried before.
The Ikhwan are strong in Jordan. In fact, the royal family has had major struggles with them. When Brothers are appointed to high positions, they go for it, secretly at first. They tolerate no others, not even the sufis. That's because the Brothers were infected with the evil takfiri ideology of Hasan al Banna and Sayyid Qutb. It was a big dumbing down. These fools thought that everything Western was corrupt and evil; that Shi'a should be eliminated, as well as any other 'atheists.' The readl Islamic reform tradition of course runs back through Rashid Rida, Mohammed Abduh, and Sayyid JalaladDin al Afghani. They taught that the big obstacle was not western science and political theory, but the backward retrenchment of the ignorant clergy. To them, Western technology and sciences should be mastered, and incorporated in a new Islamic society free of ignorance and intolerance..
The demonstrators also called for breaking the peace treaty with Israel.
ALGERIA -
It appears to be a big stand-off between dissidents and the police/army. The democrats tried to break in to Algiers on the 14th, but were pursued and beaten back. Algerians are very wary, remembering the civil war that killed some 200,000, from 1992 to 2002.
I trace the world-wide uprising to a decision by some protesters to disobey an army curfew outside Algiers on Jan. 23th. Even the old FLN (who fought the French) are criticizing Pres. Abdelaziz Bouteflika. He's promised to lift emergency law – as long as there is no emergency.
Algeria has enormous wealth from oil and gaqs; but has done effectively nothing to ease the suffering of its burgeoning population. Food subsidies can be raised, but new homes take years, decades in Algeria. This systemic shortage of affordable housing was identified by us in 1989, as a potent force for the disaffection of young people.
DJIBOUTI -
On the 18th, huge demonstrations estimated at thirty thousand, march through the streets. President Ismail Omar Guelleh recently voted himself chief-of-state for life.
Which countries will see revolution? Nations undergoing revolutions include Tunisia and Egypt. No other regimes have gone down. All, however, are promising and indeed granting democratic and social demands, except Iran, Libya. The Arab Gulf states plus Syria are giving out cash and gifts. But will the protesters be bought off? Certainly relief from a 30% rise in food prices in one year will cool people off. In the other countries, change has been thwarted for the time being. Or is being worked out.
A biological cause: some 20 years back, infant mortality fell dramatically in most Middle East and North African countries. Now all nations have millions of educated men and women, looking for any work, or just food to eat and a decent place to live, free of parents. The median age in Djibouti is 18.
FLASH – reports received of a huge demonstration in Madison, Wisconsin.
By Speculum Staff in Amherst, Massachusetts.
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