MIDDLE EAST SPECULUM REPORT - 16 February 2011

First scan Western Asia and North Africa, at all the ferment. We were watching Algeria all through the autumn, because bombs had exploded there, justifying heavy police action once again. And it was the refusal of the protesters outside Algiers to obey the government's curfew, and the unwillingness of tactical commanders, to use live ammunition on its own people. That's what ignited the Tunisians, who did just the same. Then there occurred that heinous bombing of a church in Alexandria, followed by riots between Christians and Muslims, and the firebombing of a mosque. That was the shock, I think, that kicked these particular people to protest. The young Ikhwan associates may have piled on oncew Tahrir Square became the arena, but the initial crowd was democratic, if not representative. About 1.3 million Egyptians participated in the demonstrations at the Ishma'ili Maydan (Tahrir Square).

Twitter, Facebook, the internet, cell phones and texting, not only provided information but also were used to rally, coordinate and even command the crowds. This tactical use of the net was pioneered by the Iranians last year, and today (Feb.15), when the police could not keep up with rapidly deploying crowds letter by a young crowd with Blackberries and other hand-held cyber tools. On January 25th, in Cairo, the protesters defied the police and army, just as they had seen done, and soon there was unrest through the region.

It is important to look at the other political and economic events occurring concurrently with the Arab revolts, just to gauge the force, the breadth and depth of those revolts. Lebanon, for example, has seen a drastic change in government earlier in December.. The west-hoping coalition fell as ministers resigned. Hizbullah, allied with militant Palestinian organs, has moved in and risen up as the most weighty player on the Lebanese scene.

Unrest in Iran has been simmering all along, since last year's protests. On the 15th of February several crowds coallesced. The police and then the Basij responded, but they were outnumbered. Why were there not more police and Basij?

At the same time, the hardline marji'un, the Shi'i clerics, gathered for a hate fest, with clenched fists held in the air while chanting death to America. In fact, these clerics are pushing through fatwas allowing Teheran police to pick up Mrrs. Karrubi and Khatami, then execute them.
Where is Ruhollah Khomeini when we need him? He would take his cane and chase out all the imposters. Khomeini hated police action – it hurt democracy – he hated anyone using the wealth or power of the state for their own status, power or wealth.
We have a sneaking suspicion that the authorities are having problems getting enough police and Basij to attack the people. The steady executions of protesters may have soured some of them.\
Iran is playing hardball in Afghanistan, cutting refined-fuel exports. All the westerners are dependent on petroleum, if only through an airlift. Kabul is literally breaking apart, into sections and suburbs, because people can't get to work. The few buses are overloaded. The winter has been a drag for most, for there is neither enough wood or oil to cook and keep warm.
Our proposal to create a 'smart town' from scratch in the Kabul area was presented to Hamid Karzai two weeks ago. Of course we don't expect to hear from him. But he knows he has no hope of providing housing for all the government-funded teachers and students, except by utilizing auto-construction methods. All Near East and North Africa nations need 'smart towns,' towns which can provide their own food and fuel, and which are connected to the world wirelessly.

WHO IS RUNNING EGYPT?
There exists already a spectrum of groups, ranging from the Committee of Wise Men to the Armed Forces Supreme Council. The first is a broad spectrum of the protesters, including scientists, doctors, Muslim lawyers, literary figures, historians, and one or two media-savvy youths. The second is the High Shura of the Uniformed Classes. The supreme Council has as members three judges from the Egyptian Supreme Court, plus Mr. Sobhi Saleh, representing the Ikhwan, all led by Tariq al Bishri. Mr. Bishri was first known as a leftist who later got into Islam. He has long been intrigued by the possibility of integrating modern ways with Islamic ones. Another member is a Coptic Christian.

The shebab on the street watch and listen warily. Messages flash from Cairo to Alexandria to Suez. On the 15th of February, strikes broke out in many places – employees protesting for higher wages. The costs to Egypt just keep rising. Already food has gone up 29% just this past year, before the chaos of the protests. Gasoline is ready to mount even higher in price, not just because there is less oil to sell, but because of investors' fears. Some $25 billion has alre4ady left the country. Bankers in Europe and the Caribbean are luring these fat cats to their tax-free havens, then freezing their deposits.
But what about the shebab, the youth? Over half of Egypt's citizens are under 25 years of age. Every year the government but find millions of jobs for its graduates, but of course, in our present system, be it capitalist or socialist, cannot just create jobs, except as great expense. For years the Egyptians hired all graduates, but paid them not enough to live on. Nor did the government build even half the houses necessary. And with Egypt's birthrate soaring, we are seeing a huge lack. The money required to meet minimum social needs has been spent elsewhere.
As in so many nations, the problems stem from a very partial 'austerity remedy' proffered by the World Bank, the IMF and many western organs. The idea was to cut subsidies, so the price would rise, and then the farmers would get money, to presumably increase their fields. But fertile land in Egypt is not there to grow, not even the Western Desert; the farmers grew no more produce, so the people had to pay a new higher price. Then there was the drought in Russia last summer, which cut the wheat. Egypt is, or was, the world's biggest wheat exporter. Also, US policies re ethanol cut wheat, corn and soybean production, and meant less food on the market.
Over one fourth of Egyptians are chronically undernourished, some starving. Alexandria has sea breezes to clear the pollution, but Cairo's air is poisonous, particularly the inversions accompanying sandstorms. Some 40% of Cairenes suffer from a respiratory problem, at some point in a year. If you have been to Cairo recently, you know the traffic is wildly congested. And still millions hope to own their own cars.
So, after three weeks of revoklution, who are the players? Who will they be?
Muhammed al Baradei has occupied a place on the Council of Wise Men. Mr. al Baradei is a controversial figure. Many Egyptians say he doesn't even know the Egyptian scene, but tpo others, that means he is clean of any involvement with the Mubarak 'Bonanza.' His hands are clean.
The Israelis are fearful, the Americans a bit angry: they say he intentionally allowed the Iranians to hide their activities. He was at first open to the Iranians, then progressively, he lost faith in them.
Mr. al Baradei's brief as secretary of the UN Nuclear Energy watchdog agency included promoting the peaceful use of nuclear power, so he looked at Iran from that perspective, also.
Our first remembrance of him was back in 2002, when he finally got access to Iraq. He was certain he'd find WMD. His teams looked in all the right places, and there was no evidence of any nuclear program. But we thought he was duped.
It is as if there were two groups lined up facing each other in long lines. One group consists of those who worked for the government or who benefited from a special relationship with it, or with the armed forces. The other group are all the unofficial citizens who participated in a leaderless revolutiion.
Ahmed Sadiq the PM is in the first group, and he is hardly appropriate as a new adviser.
Till recently, Egypt has had no legal opposition party. And if the young protesters have their way, there will be a National Movement of Change, a single big tent under which all the factions can sit. But that augurs poorly for a multi-party democracy.
One thing that shocked both Tunisian and Egyptian protesters, was the breakdown in law and order once the police remained in their barracks. Some 5,000 Tunisians were so scared they sailed or rowed all the way to Italy's Lampadusa Island.


LIBYA -
For those who follow Libyan affairs, the outbreak of mass violence in the city of Beghazi comes as no surprise. The demonstration occurred outside town, at the Security HQ. It was a sit-down demonstration to protest the detention of several dissident democrats. It is also the anniversary of the Bengazi Massacre, Abu Salim massacre, in 2006, when 1,200 were executed.
The government mobilized a couple hundred pro-Qadafy protesters, and these rallied as the police chased the anti-government protesters through the casbah. Over night we received reports that Libyan organizers are using cell phones and Facebook, texting and twitter, to rally a big demonstration on Feb.16th.
Libya has a huge number of unemployed youth. Highly disaffected. Numerous atttempts at rebellion, attacks on security forces, on Qadahfy, most led by Islamist groups, were all quelched by security forces. Many seized just disappear.
This big demonstration led by disaffected youth, aims to recapitulate the Tunisian model, though all know that the Colonel's police will not hesitate to use lethal force. His own movements are secret, and he has had 3 decades to prepare his forces to put down protests. But as in Iran, the people press on, as hopeless and as dangerous as the situation seems.
Impressed by US Marine, Army and Air Force operations in Afghanistan and Iraq, Qadahfy gave up his proto-WMD projects, and by 2004, sanctions against the Libyan government were lifted, and soon, it was off the US terrorist list as well. Quite a bit of private investment monies have come in to the country since then., and Qadahfy and his team have been setting up new industries.
Qadahfy has long been seen as a nutcase, especially his 'green' blend of socialism, Islam and tribal practices and laws, but he's not a freak. He is a military strong man, a tyrrant who tolerates no other party than his People's Jamahiriya: 'a state of the masses...governed by the people through local councils; in fact, a military dictatorship.' (The World Fact Book,CIA).
Qadahfy has long sought a 'third way' between capitalism and socialism. He says he had adaopted elements from Islamic law, but Libya is not run as an Islamic country. Why? Because men own the houses. Because waqf laws have long been banned.
Libya is small, just 6.2 million. One would think that its oil and gas would help the people. Indeed, the Libyan citizen is theoretically wealthy - $8,400 per adult per year. More than in the Persian Gulf or Nigeria, Qadahfy has spread the money around, usually in the form of appliances, electrical gadgets and occasional vehicles. Or privilege housing or resort vacations. Its oil is sulphur-free, making it sell at a premium. (Years ago, in 1973, New England's legal need for low-sulphur crude forced Richard Nixon to accept Qadahfy's new high prices, leading to another doubling of the oil price.)
Qadahfy has been slowly privatizing firms, and he has set up numerous small industries in recent years. So Libya produces its own steel, cement, and plastic fabrication, slowly substituting for imports. That, as well as oil and gas. In 2005, Libya exported some $32 billion, oil and gas. Such money in a small country could go far, but still, no one knows where the money goes, except to pay off thugs and informers, the army. But about some $5 billion has been invested in new industry since 2006.
Well, on Thursday, Feb. 17th, the Libyan opposition will be holding their day of rage – throughout the couyntry. Qadahfy is the oldest ruling figure in the world, some 43 years in power.
The massacres in 2003 and 2006, claiming some 1,600 lives, have, and will, never be forgotten.
Ali Abdullah, of the National Front of the Salvation of Libya, states that the goal of the protesters is democratic reforms and a new constitution.
Unemployment is over 30%. Last month, hundreds of people raided an unfinished housing complex, hoping to occupy the homes. That's how desparate they are. In all these nations, the rulers decided not to invest in low-income housing, but to pursue profits by constructing luxury flats and villas.


BAHREIN -
Bahrain has a long dissident movement, so it's no surprise that the upheaval in Egypt triggers repeated protest demonstrations in Manama. Most are Shi',' with few hopes. The government is granting rises in subsidies, and cash grants of up to $6,000 per person. But why assume that these dissidents can be bought off?


YEMEN -
After a day of rage last week, the protesters are milling around, some in mosques, some in cafes, some on the street, again led by the disaffected youth, wired, who are not afraid to confront the security police and army. Judging from photos taken in Sana'a, quite a few women accompanied the men. One might think the secular educated class might be taking responsibility, but the Muslim organs, which command the youth, are just as used to cell phones and twitter as are the secular ones.
President Ali Abdullah Saleh has given ground, promising reforms, raising the subsidies given for basics. Much foreign development money has come in, but most goes to security. Water is a critical issue, as Sana'a will run out in just a few years. Drought has set in. In the south, there is a secessionist movement, while in the north, the long-dormant Zaydi Shi'a are demand a role in the government.
“In the world of the blind, the one-eyed is king.”