We see possible solutions emerging in all the Arab nations. Yet the gains of the revolutions have not been achieved, not yet set in law. Only in Tunisia and Egypt have regimes fallen. In the other Arab nations, concessions have been made, and gifts distributed; but governmental reform has yet to be realized. In the case of Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Oman, UAE, money has simply been handed over. King Abdallah II of Jordan and King Muhammad VIth of Morocco, have promised reform, bringing dissident democrats, trade unionists, and Islamists into parliament. That is a valid step, a foot-in-the-door, which should not be scoffed at. Algeria has lifted its state-of-emergency, yet protests are met with police attacks. Meanwhile, in Syria, Libya and the Yemen, the conflict appears intractable, as scores are killed. But even here solutions are emerging. In Bahrain and Djibouti the governments have simply crushed the protests, but again, needed concessions are being granted.
Libya -
Qaddafi accepts the African Unions peace plan, calling for a ceasefire (Apr.10). The rebels will not stop fighting, however, till the Qaddafi entity steps down and leaves.
The battle for Misrata goes on. Libyan democrats can receive by boat some supplies. At the moment, Qaddafi's tanks and APCs are inside the city, though barely. NATO jets flown by hotshot pilots are gunning for any military vehicle. The Battle for Al Misrata has been going on for forty four days. Who are these people?
The battle for Misrata goes on. Libyan democrats can receive by boat some supplies. At the moment, Qaddafi's tanks and APCs are inside the city, though barely. NATO jets flown by hotshot pilots are gunning for any military vehicle. The Battle for Al Misrata has been going on for forty four days. Who are these people?
The city of some 200,000 has a long tradition. Tripolitania was a Phoenician colony, while Cyrenaica was a Greek one. For centuries this area of the world was probably the best place for humans on the planet earth, to live. These differences still linger.
These chosen regions became Muslim gradually. The Christians generally welcomed the Arabs as liberators from predatory church taxation and restrictions. Today the Libyan people of the Mediterranean coast are a mixture of Greek, Phoenician, Arab, and Berber peoples – plus some European and Jewish genes as well.
Al Misrata is an Arab tribal name. The coherence of tribal identity in an urban context explains why these citizens are holding off Qaddafi's best troops.
This week there is a call for a ceasefire, but each side attaches conditions to it, so the fighting continues. The democrats simply ask for the right to protest peacefully without fear of regime assaults. Papa Qaddafi has apparently given his son Saif Al Islam the task of arranging a ceasefire. Is anyone game?
Could this little two-headed war be settled peacefully? Yes. But the West would have to accept another one or two years of Qaddafi rule. The democrats are ready to settle, if only a few rights are granted – like the right to choose their government.
Yes. It is possible, that a transition to democracy can 'shoe-horned into place. Qaddafi's children, Saif, Aisha, Mukhtassim, Sa'idi, could gracefully set up elections, organize the new parties, then bow out, in about a year's time. Mu'ammar can fly down to Sabha and then to Harari, to prepare a compound for his family.
Does this seem far-fetched? Why? Everyone would have to give to make peace happen.
The Qaddafi apparat has to be taken apart, but this is best done through legal means. If the Al Qaddafi is serious about democratic, he might agree to go to Sabha in the western Sahara, where he went to high school, and where he first began to scheme and plot revolution. From there, to Zimbabwe.
Meanwhile, events in the east took a tragic turn when a NATO jet hit a convoy of tanks and rocket launchers on the road heading west. That was the Benghazi democrats' only armor. I doubt the rebels will take Sirt. That's why a deal might well be possible.
It's not exactly a question of right or wrong: everyone has a bit of blood on their hands. Long ago, Qaddafi initiated foul deeds, killing civilians; attempted assassinations; gun-running for the IRA, the Abu Saif rebels in Mindinao, in the Philippines; American soldiers were targeted in Germany. His secret support of several radical terror groups run by Palestinians has long been well known.
At the moment, Musa Kusa, Libya's recent foreign minister and a long-time intelligence chief, is being interrogated by Scotland Yard and MI5 re the Lockerbie bombing of a Pan Am airliner over Scotland.
Worst of all, abuses inside Qaddafi's underground prisons are grounding down some 2,400 democrats. They're stacked in dog cages from floor to ceiling. Since there are so many detained, they cannot be maintained.
One way to test Qaddafi's sincerity (and his son's) is whether these terrible prisons will be opened and the prisoners released.
Qaddafi is on the way out. Even his sons and daughter will have to admit they do not have a special place in Libya's government. But it is also true, that, in pursuit of the aims of peace and democracy, these war criminals be aloud to open the way to national redemption. As I said, all parties have blood on their hands, so we should not wax so principled and idealistic, that we force the Qaddafi regime to destroy the country and its people.
Important data re the tribes in Libya can be found in the previous Apr. 1 posting. Is it true that Qadddafi mediates between tribes, settling blood feuds? Reconciling them? Is it true that he has conciliated them enough so that they worked together to forge a nation? A bit too simplistic. He no doubt ran many de-stabilizing operations against the more recalcitrant tribes, like the Warfalla (who seek a dominance of numbers) and, of course, the Misrata, the Zawiyya, and the Sirt.
Soon, the inside 'secret history' of the Libya's political evolution will be chronicled for us. In the meantime, we must not be snobs. Qaddafi has blood on his hands, but so do we. Qaddafi has Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde sides. Maybe for him the one constant has been a love for Libya. What if he agreed to retire to Sabha, while his sons work with the democrats to set a representational democracy?
Syria -
Another wave of angry demonstrations erupted throughout Syria following Friday prayers on April 8th. The police fired live ammunition directly into a peaceful demonstration, killing 37 in Dera'a. The next day unrest broke out again in Banias on the coast. The Damascus suburb of Douma, has been completely ringed by Syrian army troops. The leadership is gambling that the terror and death visited upon the democrats by 'loyal security forces' using live ammunition will eventually eliminate the democratic 'criminals' and 'chaos'. Of course, the protests are spreading: the live firing into peaceful crowds will backfire, as it did elsewhere. News of the Dera'a atrocity triggered angry protests in Latakia, the hometown of the Al Assad clan, as well as in other cities. The new demand was for Bashar Assad to step down immediately.
The waves of protest were, are, not organized by a 'master hand.' News travels by word-of-mouth. People lurk in the shadows of the medina, whispering the unspeakable. The regime is concerned that the rabid Muslim Brotherhood will take advantage of the mayhem. True, Dera'a and As Suweiya are near the border with Jordan, where the Brothers are highly organized and roam freely. Bashar Assad has some clerics directly in his sights. But his goons can't kill them.
The waves of protest were, are, not organized by a 'master hand.' News travels by word-of-mouth. People lurk in the shadows of the medina, whispering the unspeakable. The regime is concerned that the rabid Muslim Brotherhood will take advantage of the mayhem. True, Dera'a and As Suweiya are near the border with Jordan, where the Brothers are highly organized and roam freely. Bashar Assad has some clerics directly in his sights. But his goons can't kill them.
Syria is majority Sunni Muslim, but has large minorities: the Alawites or Nasiris, the Druze, Greek Orthodox Christians, Catholics, Protestants, Jews, Monophysite Christians, Yazidis and Maneans from Iraq. From my own time spent in Haleb, Hama, Hims, and Damascus, I can see a modern secular nation, though poor. The Syrians did buy into Europe. Syrian students circulate widely. Thousands of Syrian businessmen have made fortunes in Lebanon, off-loading merchandise and trucking it over the mountains to Damascus.
But it is this very advance, which causes conservative towns like Ad Dera'a, to blow their lids. People are poor, some young men destitute. Meanwhile, their Ba'ath party peers are driving BMWs to Lebanon for week-end get-a-ways in the fleshpots of Beirut. It all says corruption to the people. And this is where the clerics step in, for what hope is there, except in God?
The protests began in Dera'a when some 15 teenagers writing graffiti on walls were detained by the police. Those youngsters were all released. That's the only public concession. Behind the scenes, it is another story. Protests erupting in an estimated 16 locals in Syria present too big a commotion for even the army to control. And it is not sure that the Syrian army will fire on its people.
If there existed a pro-Syrian, pro-Ba'ath opposition on the streets, then the army could neatly step between the two crowds, and keep the lid on. This is what the army in the Yemen is doing. But the army is grimly attached to the Assad apparat: soldiers will be executed and tortured if they prove liberal and tolerant of such blatant bids for freedom.
Again, look the frailty of our own presumptions of innocence. Did not the US government invad Iraq, The Americans sacrificed some 4,000 soldiers, and left Iraq like a wound that barely heals. How then can the Americans claim the moral high ground now? The West turns to the Syrians and Libyans and says: 'You were indirectly related to a terrorist organs and acts, so we will never admit you into our respect. We want you to give up power, even at the risk of anarchy and lawlessness.' Or when so-called educated people say Syria's close support of Hizbullah in southern Lebanon, and its vocal support of HAMAS in Gaza, are proof that the Al Assad regime is America's inveterate enemy.
Obviously, that's a warped and skewed vision. Hizbullah and HAMAS may be crazed, but they occupy their own land, unlike the Israelis, who have annexed the land and water of West Bank Arabia.
When I was in Israel I occasionally discussed these matters with foreign policy and defense 'experts' and officers, I was usually told “As an American, you don't know the Middle East. We live here. We know it.” The subtext being, 'fall into line behind us as we expand over the land God gave the Jews.'
When told this, I say simply: but you cannot go to any of the places I go to. I have lived in Turkey and speak Turkish. I've lived and worked in Iran, Afghanistan and Uzbekistan, and speak Persian. As for the Arabs, I only know Egypt, Syria and Jordan, but I speak and read Arabic. But you can't even leave your own country.
What if the world, led by the United States, used low-frequency communication to bring down, over time, the ultra-right Likud apparat? What then? Israel might cease being an enemy and become a player.
The Syrian and Israeli defense elite can be rehabilitated, de-programed, only through each other.Their border has been completely quiet for three decades, trade crosses it almost daily (from the Golan to Qunetra.) I recall the pre-Islamic code: a wise enemy is better than foolish friends.
Syria deserve respect, if not its murderous government, then its people. As for the future, one wonders how vicious the Ba'ath regime will be. I expect Syria to be in the news for the months to come. Some of the protesters are ready to sacrifice their lives.
Yemen -
A continual demonstration, it seems, has been going on around the university area of Sana'a. Severe manifestations breakout in Ta'iz, that mountain aeyrie. The south has its own protests and secessionist movements: Aden in the far south, the Tihama to the west, on the coast of the Red Sea, and the Hadramaut on the south east side. Up north the Houthi tribal rebellion persists, a call for equality and democratic reform, which is now aligning with the Zaydi Shi'a, the 'Seveners,' who once constituted Yemen's royal family. In the east, one finds worlds that westerners have only flown over, if that. And in these unimaginable eco-niches, dwell the troglodyte Al Qa'ida of the Arabian Peninsula, and their acolytes.
The crowd has grown nasty, and no compromise seems possible. The democrats want Ali Saleh out immediately, with all his family. They have been running things, the army, secret police, hotels, ministries, car dealerships, real estate. That's the bad thing about Mr. Saleh. His family looted the country. Now he demands freedom from all prosecution before he resigns. That the protesters will not accept. We expect more deaths.
The tribes can work through the Tribal Council offices, perhaps with some politicians and technocrats, to become the body to whom Ali Saleh hands over power.
At the moment there is a shortage of NG and gasoline in Yemen. Food will become scarcer also.
At the moment there is a shortage of NG and gasoline in Yemen. Food will become scarcer also.
Egypt -
Following Friday prayers, some 400 protesters re-occupied Tahrir Square, demanding trials for Hosni Mubarak, his family, friends and ministers. At night the army attacked these protesters, detaining many, and driving them from the Square. A group of army officers who were with the protesters, were all detained, and will likely not be seen again. Gunfire was heard all night long. No report on casualties yet. We presume the hospitals are not free to announce casualty figures. But the deed was done, and everyone knows it. So how will the democrats react? They will occupy Tahrir Square. So, on the third day of these new protests, some 1,800 protesters have re-captured Tahrir Sq., disobeying the army. Marshall Tantawi is playing the Sphinx, saying nothing, while pulling strings from behind a curtain. The protesters have his resignation as a precondition before the protests stop.
Elections are due in just over 4 months, not enough time for new political parties to coalesce. So we'll see the two establishment parties, the National Democratic Party (NDP) and the Muslim Brotherhood, get the upper hand, triggering another round of demonstrations and protests.
Elections are due in just over 4 months, not enough time for new political parties to coalesce. So we'll see the two establishment parties, the National Democratic Party (NDP) and the Muslim Brotherhood, get the upper hand, triggering another round of demonstrations and protests.
Algeria -
Every day there is a protest somewhere, at all hours. And they are the most orderly and well-dressed of all Arab protesters. Why? Because they've had such long experience demonstrating. Regular fights with the police are nothing to them. President Bouteflika, who was originally a front man for the FLN and the army, got himself elected in his own right, and has gone on to effectively channel protest so they don't hurt the economy.
The protesters are put together by opposition parties, including democrats; human rights activists; regional agents, like the Berber in Kabyle in the east); tribal leaders, and Islamists.
As readers of this know, I favor Algeria, putting it in a special category. I believe it was protests in late 2010 which triggered the Tunisian protests, because the Algerian protesters disobeyed a curfew order. The outbreak of revolution in Libya occurred on the 17th of Feb., the same day that mass demonstrations were held in greater Algiers, Oran, Constantine and points south.
The Algerian protests may have been triggered by sustained protests of the various Tuareg groups living in tents around the southern city of Tindouf. They went on all during the year 2010, the aim being, to persuade Morocco to hold a referendum on independence for the Western Sahara. We suspect it was the unrest the Western Sahara which triggered the Algerians protests in late December, and early January.
Tunisia -
The city Tunis is a small part of the country: the Tunisian hinterland is Muslim and not exactly all Arab. Berbers live here too. The lawlessness, however, is not coming from the desert nomads and the remote villages, but from organized criminals operating in Tunis' suburbs. Since the democrats demanded the dismantling of the security apparat, there are few ways to counter the organized criminal gangs, so lawlessness remains a feature of life in Tunisia. We suspect that the new democratic leaders are all secular and barred Islamist self-acclaimed salafis from winning any high political position.
Palestine -
Pressure was building for a unification government, joining Gaza and the West Bank, but an upturn in violence (against Israel) has made such re-unification unlikely this year. Meanwhile, rogue terrorist elements sent some 80 missiles into Israel. Israel reacts with deadly force, prompting the leaders of Hamas to suggest a ceasefire with the Jewish state. That Jewish state is of course one quarter Muslim.
Bahrain -
The government has been dragging off activists, usually in night raids. Hundreds have disappeared in detention. What began as a peaceful secular protest, gradually turned into a sectarian rebellion, as the underground Shi'a cells assumed tactical control. No body knows quite how many have been injured, killed or tortured. The opposition now demands the removal of the Al Khalifa family, leaving no doubt that they would install a Shi'i regime, where elections and parliament were replaced by vilayat faqih, or Supreme Judge.
Iraq -
Over February and March, demonstrations were seen from Basra to Suleimaniyya. Most protested endemic corruption; or asked for the removal off a corrupt governor. Other protests demanded more electricity. In Kerbala, on March 16 to 17, some 2,000 Shi'a demonstrated against Saudi's deployment of troops in Bahrain. Nuri al Maliki also protested. Maliki also threatened each of his ministers to shape up or resign.
The Material Question:
Politics aside, one looks carefully at what is needed: cheaper food and fuel, affordable housing, jobs. The material requirements deserve more coverage than they are getting. What are the prescriptions for fulfilling each of the above needs? The prime purpose of government is to figure out how to meet these requirements. The 'Washington Concensus' was abandoned a decade ago. Even the so-called Seoul Development method does not relieve the suffering most everyone is enduring: high prices for food and fuel, a drastic dearth of affordable housing, few jobs for young citizens who worked hard to educate themselves, and political police intimidation, lack of rights, torture. Then the issue of corruption, also a material hemorrhage. As the revolutions persist, one hears more extreme demands, like bringing former leaders to trial (and their families), replacing all police, total control over the army. All the governments are trying to work out a step-by-step transition, one entailing a complete change in the political environment; but these meeting and consulting groups must soon make changes in their nations' economic systems.
In addition, the Arab nations should build a railroad from Morocco to Muscat.
In our next posting (Apr.16), we will examine the role of oil in uncertain political environments.
The government has been dragging off activists, usually in night raids. Hundreds have disappeared in detention. What began as a peaceful secular protest, gradually turned into a sectarian rebellion, as the underground Shi'a cells assumed tactical control. No body knows quite how many have been injured, killed or tortured. The opposition now demands the removal of the Al Khalifa family, leaving no doubt that they would install a Shi'i regime, where elections and parliament were replaced by vilayat faqih, or Supreme Judge.
Iraq -
Over February and March, demonstrations were seen from Basra to Suleimaniyya. Most protested endemic corruption; or asked for the removal off a corrupt governor. Other protests demanded more electricity. In Kerbala, on March 16 to 17, some 2,000 Shi'a demonstrated against Saudi's deployment of troops in Bahrain. Nuri al Maliki also protested. Maliki also threatened each of his ministers to shape up or resign.
The Material Question:
Politics aside, one looks carefully at what is needed: cheaper food and fuel, affordable housing, jobs. The material requirements deserve more coverage than they are getting. What are the prescriptions for fulfilling each of the above needs? The prime purpose of government is to figure out how to meet these requirements. The 'Washington Concensus' was abandoned a decade ago. Even the so-called Seoul Development method does not relieve the suffering most everyone is enduring: high prices for food and fuel, a drastic dearth of affordable housing, few jobs for young citizens who worked hard to educate themselves, and political police intimidation, lack of rights, torture. Then the issue of corruption, also a material hemorrhage. As the revolutions persist, one hears more extreme demands, like bringing former leaders to trial (and their families), replacing all police, total control over the army. All the governments are trying to work out a step-by-step transition, one entailing a complete change in the political environment; but these meeting and consulting groups must soon make changes in their nations' economic systems.
In addition, the Arab nations should build a railroad from Morocco to Muscat.
In our next posting (Apr.16), we will examine the role of oil in uncertain political environments.
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