All Arab Nations Benefit from Revolution

وقد استفادت جميع الدول العربية من الثورة.
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Even where the revolution failed, important concessions have been granted. The protesters in Jordan, Morocco and the UAE are not calling for the ouster of their kings. In Bahrain, the dissidents are welcomed to spell out their (legitimate) grievances, to parliament. In Oman and Djibouti, the governments have rapidly responded to the protest by creating hundreds of jobs.

Libya Wins Its Independence -

Readers of this publication are familiar with the topographic details of the war in Libya, so it is not too surprising to learn that NATO planned the stunning rebel victory over the heavily armed forces of Mu'ammar Qaddafi. Just what 'planned' means is a point in question. But as we pointed out in earlier postings, Qaddafi's forces could not cover their flanks, or even control urban territory.

The rebel's decision to activate another front in the west, through the Nafusa Mountains, was the decisive move, in our view. NATO must have convinced the Tunisians to open a corridor from Ramala to Nalut.

On Sept. 1 representatives from some fifty nations met in Paris with reps from the NTC (Libya's lawful government). Libya deserves and will receive, not so much assistance, as access to its oil profits stashed overseas (over $100 billion).

By Friday, prayers and the beginning of the Eid al Fitr, Qaddafi's forces are found in Sirte and Sabha. We have often mentioned both places. They are the home turf of Qaddafi. It is was in Sabha, in the Fezzan, that Qaddafi went to high school. There, he learned how to scheme and plot revolution. After, he lived for months with the Tuareg, and traveled in his own mobile caravan deep in the Sahara.

The National Transitional Council (NTC), Libya's legitimate government, has given the defenders of Sirte and Sabha a week before they would attack. Meanwhile, NATO jets have conducted close to three hundred sorties in and around Sirte, breaking up any fixed defenses Qaddafi's troops can put up.

But Sabha is another situation, remote and beyond NATO air. Actually, US jets can re-fuel over the Sahara and smash the defenses, but this would be a special operation. Sources from the rebl command asserted Thursday Sept.1, that Mu'ammar Qadafi was in the south, on his way to Niger. We've been saying the same thing: that Qaddafi can navigate the Sahara in a small caravan, expecting to meet friends along the way. Qaddafi need not worry in Niger, Zimbabwe, and most southern African nations.

Meanwhile, prisons are still being found, mass graves. Some 50,000 Libyans are missing. One can be sure that investigations are going forward. There is a hard edge to the rebels: too much blood spilled. Qaddafi's rule was 'a boring nightmare.'

The West is fretting that Islamists are inside the NTC. The jihadi Abdul Hakim Belhaj was invited to attend some high level meetings. Belhaj once had links with Al Qaida, the Taliban and with the murderous Egyptian group Al Jihad. Even worse, the NTC commander Abdel Fattah Younis was murdered by the Libyan Islamic Fighting Group. That organization has just been 'de-mobilized.' The new name is the 'Islamic Movement for Change (IMC).'

These Libyan Islamists were well organized. They often stormed impossible targets, like the Bab al Azziyah complex south of Tripoli, Qaddafi's HQ. But we should bear in mind that these Islamist leaders, like Belhaj, are aging veterans, tired of war. Times have certainly changed. Previously, all problems were dropped on America, Israel and the West. But today, the US is greatly praised for its coordination of the entire NATO air war. Press a little further and the Arabs will find that the USA does not back but condemns Jewish settlement in the West Bank of Palestine.

Syria – low intensity conflict for years?

The prognosis is not good. There can be no resolution. Syria's low intensity civil war can go on for years. This is intolerable – not what Syria deserves. Lack of electricity and war, food and fuel, combined with incessant fear, will just wear the people down.

Aleppo and Damascus see few demonstrations, which means the Ba'athi regime can turn its attentions elsewhere. At the moment, the regime is conducting a vicious police action in Hama, in an effort to catch the defecting district attorney, Adnan Bukar. On Friday the 24th there was a huge demonstration in Homs. The police shot dead some 30 and detained some 200. Many of these will not be seen alive again. Some were from Deir Az Zaur, in the east.

Will guns find their way into people's hands? The army cannot seal all the borders. But a civil war would be tragic. It would last for years and kill tens of thousands.

A Syrian colleague in NYC tells me the Syrian Ba'athi regime under Bashar Al Assad, is not that strong. “It will splinter.” The majority of army soldiers are Sunni Muslims, and their Alewite commanders don't hesitate to use lethal force to keep the army as a tool of repression. That's the only tool they have to keep the troops in line.

The whole world condemns the Syrian regime for its attacks on its innocent civilians. Even Iran has protested. “We call on Syria to meet the demands of its people” said a spokesman in Tehran. Syria is isolated internationally.

On Saturday Sept. 3 we  see further meetings between representatives of the Syrian people and the international community. If they are not planning for war, they must be planning a diplomatic overture. Even the regime has limits. The resistance should consider government proposals for a multi-party system. There has to be flexibility on both side for there to be an agreement, a reconciliation.

Iraq – discontent and violence

On Sept. 1, a vicious battle erupted inside the Ministry of the Interior, in Baghdad. Some 20 are killed as government soldiers fought the terrorists for some six hours. For two months, there has been a plan of assassinations of officials. The leaders in this mayhem are those calling themselves 'the Islamic State of Iraq.' They are closely associated, or were, with Al Qaida in Iraq. They are Sunni Muslims who don't hesitate to slaughter Shi'a, Christians, Yazidis and Jews.

Opposed are the large numbers of Shi'a Muslims from southern Iraq. Maliki is tied to the radical M. Sadr who is tied to Iran. Indeed, it is common knowledge in Iraq that foreign intelligence organs are stirring up the embers. US forces (some 50,000) will be gone before the end of the year.

Iraqis ask only for food, water, electricity, garbage collection and peace. Government services are lagging or non-existent, not for lack of money, but because of a shortage of competent administrators. Time and again, new employees embezzle money or just disappear for long periods. They have no experience as to what an administration is for. Many cannot write well, or do math.

Like Syria, we see a long low-intensity war in Iraq. The police are definitely improving: for eight years they seen their own ranks infiltrated by ethnic sectarian extremists. Now they are better at stopping infiltration. Still, this week it was announced that some 40 al Qaida prisoners escaped from a prison in Mosul. They dug a tunnel. The government has arrested the entire prison staff. Most of the escapees were captured during a curfew.

Yemen – Danger from Violence Recedes

With president Ali Saleh in hospital in Riyadh, the political situation in Sana'a is easing. Meanwhile, shortages of water, electricity and the high price of food, with little chance of profitable work, casts Yemen as a country in need of humanitarian relief.

On July 3, three soldiers were killed in the south, Aden, when a suicide bomber detonated a bomb. The country may be breaking apart, but people are confident that they can bring democracy to the country. Yemen is made for democracy – it is a federation of small states, several of which were once veritable empires. All the various actors: should we name them?

In Sana'a, secular, educated Yemenis started the protest six months ago. They worked as a team with the shibab, the youth in the streets. These young men used electronic media to call and coordinate protests. But they do not recognize the intellectuals, the professionals, still less government.

Tribes control movement around the country. The Revolutionary Guard under Saleh's sons is strong enough to fight tribal insurgents. But it must also contend with secessionists in the south (in Abyar and the Hadramaut). Al Qaida is a third force that needs be watched. They occupy eastern Yemen, under tribal protection, of course.

Sudan: Fighting in Kordufan -

With the division of Sudan in two, one would expect the people to get with it. But now there is war in southern Kordufan (located between Darfur and the Nile). Black Muslims, speaking their own language (Kordufan), are under aerial and ground attack. After the inauguration of South Sudan, other minorities want independence. But the attacks of Omar Al Bashir's Islamic Sudan has caused some ten thousand Kordufan people to leave their homes. There are nearly a million refugees, in Somalia, Ethiopia, Kenya, and South Sudan. The international community wants to help, but not all honor their pledges. People (mainly children) are dying of malnutrition and lack of clean water.

Algeria admits Qaddafi family -

Sometimes one can look at Algeria and see no indication of change. It seems that the country has avoided the Arab Spring. At other times, one sees that change has been proceeding on its course. The Algerian people did force President Boutiflika to lift emergency rule – martial law.

On July 31 Algeria admitted the wife and son and grandchildren. Hospitality dictates Algeria receive them. There's no love lost on Qaddafi himself.

Algeria is not a poor country. Over $160 billion of assets are stashed in the West. Much of this money had been ear-marked for various projects, but it just sits there.

Gone is the golden age of Algerian diplomacy, featuring Lakhmar Brahimi and others. Algeria is tired of war. Police do not need emergency powers to break up demonstrations anyways. The people are resigned to their fates: But they are mystified as to where all the oil money went.

Algeria's strong military and police precludes a campaign of protests. The nation's leadership is a bunch of old men – remnants of the old power structure.

Coastal Algerians were secularized under the French. In the interior, Islam rules. Elections for office are very difficult because of this gaping divide: one side boycotts the whole thing. So democracy is not tenable.

Can anything sew up the divide in Algeria's fabric? The army. Trade. Jobs.

Four features offers hope for the future: a dramatic rise in fresh water, thanks to a new desalination plant running of Algerian NG. Secondly, Algeria has a courageous and rather independent press. Thirdly, multiparty democracy is in place; Fourth, Algeria has so much money from oil that it cannot even invest it domestically.

Israel - mass demonstrations on July 3rd. We include Israel here because it contains many Arabs and is an Islamic country (also). The Israeli protesters want a more equitable distribution of wealth, lower taxes, lower food prices, low-income and single housing and more jobs.

                                                                                         -by John Paul Maynard