Change of Seasons - the Arab Autumn

تغيير الفصول -- خريف العربية

Change of Seasons: The Arab Autumn

Writing on the fall equinox, there does seem to be a turn or a change in the on-going narrative, as if a dam burst. Autumn is a time of maturation. We see in most Arab nations intense dialogue. Behind the scenes, opposing groups thrash it out: in Egypt, Tunisia, Libya, Morocco, Mauritania, Bahrain, Palestine, Jordan and Iraq - all sides are seeking effective accommodation, agreements which would allow these nations to regain profitable economies. Inside the democratic opposition are all kinds of groups – socialists, secular intellectuals, technocrats, oligopolists, professional organizations, former prisoners and mothers of the dead, various business interests (i.e. tourism), the armed forces and their officers, defecting soldiers and politicians, returning expatriates, students, pensioners, Islamists of many stripes, and, of course, the shibab – the youth on the street.

As if they planned it, some actors took the autumnal equinox as a time to act. Yemen president Ali Abdullah Saleh flew back to his country after a three-month absence for medical treatment. And as soon as  arrived home to his palace, he ordered his Revolutionary Guards to attack dissident army units in Sana'a. Unarmed protesters were caught in the cross fire, killing 25. These attacks just intensified the collective will of the protesters. Huge demonstration on the 25th.

Just five days before, the opposition staged a huge demonstration in Sana'a, which appeared to be marching on the presidential palace. This demonstration was 'secured' by dissident elements of the Yemeni armed forces led by Gen. Ali Mohsin. The Yemeni army and special forces opened fire on the crowd repeatedly, killing over 100 protesters. Now the Saleh is back, we expect negotiations to further concentrate, even though Saleh is not going to yield.

Yemen – the Yemen is a poor country, now made destitute by the political instability. The various regions – Ma'rib, Sa'ada in the north, the Tihama along the Red Sea coast, Ta'iz, Abdan in the south (Aden), the Hadramaut in the east – all are going their separate ways, power falling back onto the tribes and clans. Western powers are anxious that al Qaida does not exploit the chaos, as it has been doing in the south as well as the east. The USA has a large program underway dedicated to killing Al Qaida's leader in the Arabian peninsula, Anwar Aulaki “the American” who has tried repeatedly to kill innocent people. The tribes in the east tend to support al Qaida, largely because of Saudi pressure. They are also in opposition to the Saleh family. Note: Saleh son, Ahmed, may be acting as de facto ruler, commanding the Yemeni special forces, and army, against the brutal ambitions of the Ahmar tribe. The Houthis in the north, largely Shi'a, have also joined the opposition, providing a 'royal' prestige to the protests.

Libya - The war in Libya is not quite finished. Again on the equinox, anti-Qaddafi forces take the southern city of Sabha, in the Fezzan.  NTC democratic forces break into Sirte, on Sept.24. The rebels will rapidly seize control in the vast south, including the all-important oil fields in the Al Kufrah oasis, in the extreme southeast of Libya. It seems the Qaddafi forces refrained from sabotaging the oil wells.

That fact, if true, should alleviate some of the unseemly panic affecting the world's petroleum market. But the investors and speculators prefer the new permanent high prices for diesel and gasoline. Led by the Republicans, Congress will do nothing to help lower gasoline prices. High energy prices has ignited inflation in the USA and in Europe, two regions not all that more peaceful than the Arab nations. Both empires are threatened. He see another crippling debt-crisis by the Republican right.

Bahrain - Shi'i leaders boycott elections. Small demonstrations in Shi'i towns. It is unfortunate that the opposition got co-opted by sectarian and ethnic hotheads. The Al Khalifa family has often invited the Shi'a to participate in the political process - use elected office to win some representation. But no. These Muslims erroneously dismiss democracy. And this is sad because the educated secular people who organized and launched the (attempted) 'Pearl' revolution, have lost control.

Also on the equinox, the Palestinian authority led by Mahmud Abbas (Abu Mazen) formally requested from the UN a new enhanced status, basically as a nation. America's first Jewish president – Barack Obama – is determined to veto any such decision, even if unanimous. The Americans fail to grasp how they are being used and led along by ignorant mean biblical fundamentalists in the South, who see the Torah as a blue print for empire. But the settlements in the West Bank will always be stolen land, and hence a cause for war and terror.

Most American Jews do not want such an expanded greater Israel but, again, there are groups of rabbis and lay Jews and Christian Zionists, who are using the Republican Party to put a stop to any real negotiations involving withdrawal from the stolen land. Al Qaida tried to cause a war between Islam and America, but did not succeed until Republican blowhards, like the Perry entity, called for full prosecution of the Muslims. Now the USA finds opposition up all through the Arab world. The King of Saudi Arabia says if the US vetoes the Palestinian resolution, that will end the special relation his country has with the Americans. Oh dear, oh my, that means even higher gasoline prices?

النفاق يولد الكراهية

"Hypocrisy breeds hatred."

Iraq – Iraqis want the American occupiers out of the country, but some hesitate, aware that the civil war between Sunni and Shi'i Arabs can erupt at any time. War has been so expensive to ordinary Iraqis that Iraq's leaders must think carefully if they really want the US forces to leave. Nur al Maleki has opted to join with the Sadr entity in a bid for de facto Shi'i dominance. For obscure reasons, the two Kurdish factions side with the Shi'a and not the minority Sunni Arabs. (the Kurds have their Shi'a as well).

Jordan – The low key King, Abdallah II, started divesting monarchical powers before the Arab revolutions of 2011. Specifically, the prime minister will be elected by popular vote. Jordan is split several ways: Bedouin, Palestinain, Islamist, secular professional and government organizations, Muslims and Christians. We suspect that the opposition has been dominated by the Islamists (largely MB and Salafi who follow the crude Wahhabi interpretation), though I should hasten to add, that the 'ulema in Amman, prefer negotiations with the king, to fighting in the streets.

Syria –  was a lull in the fighting Sept.20-23. In Homs, the regime was attacking (Sept.24), trying to capture the dissident leaders and their own defecting soldiers. They had killed some 200 protesters a week for a month, till this week, when casualties fell off. The protesters have given some 2,200 killed, some four thousand missing. So regrettably, the people do not care to negotiate or go step-by-step. The Alawiis Shi'a see a direct threat to their rule and to their lives, if they ever give back power. But there might be a chance for outside negotiators, mediators, who could suggest a step-by-step program leading to a ceasefire, and eventually, election of a new government.

Under blockade, the regime will suffer but not starve. Syria still produces oil, for itself.  Much ammo has been stashed away. It also controls large farms. But the Syrian people of the cities have slipped. They often go without electrical power, and sometimes water. Food has tripled in price. So, along with Yemen, Syria is a humanitarian disaster zone.

Egypt – Popular anger targets the army and secret police. There are always some protesters in Tahrir Square (or surrounding streets), protesting the return to army rule. The coming elections will put Islamists into power. It is difficult to imagine, however, Egyptians opting for Islamist rule. The last aggressively Islamist rulers were the Shi'i Fatimids (969-1171); but Egypt's important leaders, i.e. the Ayyubids under Saladin; Muhammad Ali in the 19^th C.; even Gamal al Nasir, and Anwar Sadat fought the arrogant, ignorant, lethal Muslim Brotherhood. So that secularizing tradition will endure in Egypt. Last week's attack on the Israeli embassy threatens to so distract Egypt's  leaders and people, that reactionary 'traditionalists' can and will exploit the discontent, to win support in neighborhoods.

On Sept. 24, Field Marshall M. Hassan Tantawi 'the Sphinx' will talk for the first time ever, during the trial of Hosni Mubarak.  His testimony occurred behind closed doors.. Mubarak faces execution is they prove a link.

Saudi Arabia -  King  Abdullah bin Abdul'aziz announces that women will be able to vote in municipal elections, and run for office, Sept.25. He likely made his final decision to do this on or around the equinox.


Oman - Omani diplomats worked hard to free the two American hikers charged with espionage by Iran. The two were released on the 23rd of Sept., (the equinox).They condemn their captor for its brutality and ideology.

Turkey seized a Syrian ship full of arms and ammunition on the 22nd. of Sept. Last month, if you were listening, you would have heard Turkey's foreign minister announce the deployment of its navy into the Eastern Mediterranean. In Istanbul, Syrian dissidents continue to meet and consult, as a new type of government is hammered out.

Meanwhile, in the United States, the authorities cannot prevent a few rich men become filthy rich on the NY Mercantile Exchange in oil futures, while 200 million American become poorer.  Gasoline prices remain some 23% higher than they should be. OPEC is pumping enough oil. Such high prices for refined products is causing an acceleration of inflation. Even worse than these is the capture of the Republican party by ignorant blowhards. They are anti-science, which augurs poorly for the future. So the fall equinox signals a new round in the Republican's naked pursuit of power. Decisions made in their dark heads today will probably cause a shut down of the government in 5 days.

Also happening Sept.23-25: Vladimir Putin decides to be the president of Russia. He can serve two six-year terms, which means he will likely rule Russia through 2023. Medvedev will switch to prime minister. Most western investors have been driven off, by the corruption, by the lack of the rule of law at top, and by government taxes and harassment. One exception is Exxon Mobil which is joining the Russians in drilling for oil in the shallow Arctic waters north of the continent. The transfer to the Russians of our best drilling technology might seem justified in (eventually) providing more oil for the Americans. But that assumes that big oil companies have allegiances to their respective nations.

                                                                              -JPM