Assessing Arab Revolutions After One Year

As if the year were itself a new, more intense octave, violence flared up in Syria, Egypt, Libya, Sudan, Somalia and the Yemen. Iraq too, seems to be descending into chaos. One hopes for countervailing forces and factors, but every group pursues its own interests. The revolutions have been usurped by groups with narrow interests.

Syria -

Some 200 Syrians were killed on Feb.4, a casualty level of civil war. These atrocities occurred because Al Asad knows Russia, Iran and China will be in support. Sudan, Eritrea, as well.The Arab League is rife with intrigue and accusations, and is not yet able to field a delegation seeking a ceasefire.

The recent one-month long Arab League Monitoring Mission to Syria was narrowly voted to continue – but not now. It is not clear whether they have an assertive peace plan. Though the Arab League under Amr Musa (Mousa) seemed to side with the protesters, the conservative members, led by Sudan and including Morocco and Algeria, Eritrea and Bahrain, appear to set the terms of peace – surrender to the authorities.

The opposition in Syria is divided between those who want to negotiate a new government, and those who want to fight the regime to the end. And while no outside power will offer direct military assistance, Turkey, Qatar and even Saudi Arabia, are exploring ways by which they can, separate or together, clip Al Assad's wings. All those Special Operations troops want to go in. They start by arming the opposition – supplying ammo, water, food and fuel.

The regime will try to control all the roads, but these can be hit, forcing the regime to pull back its forces, to protect government installations and VIPs. So we see the Syrian situation evolving this way.

The massive assault launched by the noxious 4^th brigade, first on eastern Damascus, then in and around Homs – has killed a thousand or so. This is not fighting but the firing of large-caliper weapons intro crowded urban neighborhoods.

One would have thought that the world community might pull together around a condemnation (with sanctions) of such inhumane behavior, but Russia and China have refused any UN support for military intervention in Syria.

The whole Arab world is wondering why Russia and China are taking such obstructionist positions. They can only be what they are. We expect the situation in Syria to intensify, even to the point of civil war. Last week, some 200 innocents were killed in one day, and those figures are those of a civil war.

Meanwhile, the Hamas leadership, in exile in Damascus, decides to flee, some going to Doha, others to Amman, and others to Egypt and from Egypt, back to Gaza. In Doha,  Khalid Meshal, head of Hamas, meets with Abu Mazen (Mahmud Abbas) to a new attempt at reconciliation.

Egypt -

The anniversary two weeks ago brought hundreds onto the streets around Tahrir Square, Cairo. The big push from below is to curb the power of the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces (SCAF), led buy the Sphinx, Marshall M. Hussein Tantawi.

What enervates educated people in Cairo is that the army, police and the Islamists have worked out loose arrangement to share power and to keep it from the 'west-influenced troublemakers', i.e. the secular democrats.'

Last month M. El Baradei threw in the towel, convinced the elections for president this summer, will be rigged. El Baradei had worked out an alliance with the Muslim Brotherhood, only to have it blown up in his face when the Brothers took up the army's bid for totalitarian control. How naïve.

Yemen -

Readers of this blog have been able to chart the slow disintegration of the country called Yemen Republic. After one year of unrest, the southern province of Abyan (including the port city of Aden) and Shabwa province in the east, have fallen under al Qaida control. In the past week, some 200 Yemeni soldiers have been killed at their posts, while on patrol, and in their barracks.

This is unusual development to us, as it was apparent, a year ago, that extreme poverty and the breakdown of eco-socio-nets, meant the rise of local hotheads who can supply necessities.

Two weeks we noted that the UN was sandbagging all its offices, particularly those in the Aden area, now flooded with refugees. More unfortunately, we see the new Vice President, Mansur al Hadi, inviting Al Qaida to join the government in talking out solutions.

Al Qwaida of the Arabian Peninsula is just one of the groups claiming Islam as their own and vowing to wage war on non-Muslims. Unfortunately, most of the food aid, fuel discounts and ammo comes into the country by ship at Al Hudaidah thanks to non-Muslims. But the clerics provide some solace as the people starve.

Again, as in Egypt and Syria and Tunisia and Libya, the educated democrats have been pushed to the side. The army is in control, around Sana'a and Ta'iz (perhaps), but not in Abyan and Shabwa, or in the north, around Sa'ada.

Jordan -

King Abdullah II received Hahas leader Khalid Mashal on February 6, 2012. Hamas is fleeing Damascus – it's too hot for the Islamists – which also coincides with talks between Fatah and Hamas, over a new unity government, formed by elections.

Foreign direct investment (FDI) as fallen steeply over the past months. Whether the newly unemployed will side with the Muslim Brothers and/or the Salafis, is not yet known. Islamists now control most labor unions and professional associations.

Israel and Palestine -

Mahmud Abbas of Fatah and Khalid Mishal of Hamas met in Qatar in the latest step in their reunion. The Israeli line is that such reunion threatens peace. But not so fast. A Palestinian government, elected, would be a better position to negotiate than either party at present. Of course there are many who do not want any peace agreement - Jews and Arabs alike.