The Revolutions after One Year

Egyptians Celebrate Anniversary -

The anniversary extended over a week, as demonstrators are searched by Brothers (Ikhwan al Muslimiyya, the Muslim Brotherhood , before entering Tahrir Square. The army has commissioned the Brothers to run security, arguing that since the Islamists took some 75% of the vote in the recent parliamentary elections, they are entitled to run security.

Of course the weird relations between the army and the Brothers have been on-and-off-and-on again, a cycle going back to the late 1930s. The Salafis were able to grab some 25% (or more) of the vote because the army put them on a legal platform and allowed Wahhabi clerics from the Gulf Arab states (except Oman, Iraq and Bahrein) to fund these Muslim organs.

The much more tolerant sufi groups have long been targets by takhfiris in this ten-year-old Muslim Inquisition. Most Egyptian Muslims have no choice as their culture becomes mere white bread spiced with coercion. Following the Wahhabis, other Muslims can be targeted (to be slandered, wounded and killed) simply because they dress in western clothes or read books.

The Egyptian Block has done a decent job in getting over superficial ideological differences. Socialists mix with businessmen, the educated with the labor unions, the young with the old, and the men with the women.. Unfortunately, most professional associations have fallen under MB control or influence..

Now the focus shifts to writing a constitution and holding presidential elections this summer. The street, however, wants SCAF to give up its power. So the revolution rolls on.

Morocco: Is This Revolution or What?

The group-immolation of five students opens once again factors of raw dissent. The February 20^th Movement is composed of the loyal, established opposition, thereby excluding many youth. Back in March 2011, the King, Muhammad the 6^th, reorganized the entire political arena. The Berber language, Tamazight, was legalized, the judiciary was made independent, and the king opted to have parliament choose the PM. The large Committee for Justice and Benevolence signed on, even though the king kept for himself, the religious ministries, the armed forces and foreign relations.

The November 25 elections were deemed free and fair. Some 45% of voters turned out, up from 37% in the elections of 2007. The large PJD (Party of Jutsice and Developmet) took 107 out of 395 seats, while the Istiqlal (Independence) Party took 60 out of 395 seats. The promising Party of Authenticity and Modernity, led by Fuad Ali Al Himan, did not fare well in the elections.

Yemen - Ali Abdullah Saleh departs for America

The moment most have been waiting for – the resignation and disappearance of President Saleh – occurred last week when he flew, via Oman, to the USA. He'll undergo a surgery aimed at helping his nervous system.

Yemen has slowly been changing. Life in Sana'a and other cities is returning to normal. The economy is so shattered that even a little clean water, NG, food, gasoline – goes a long way to restoring chances for long-term survival.

But in the cities of Ta'is and Aden refugees are swamping the flimsy facilities and testing the tempers of everyone involved. A group called the Ansar Ash Shari'a (Helpers of the Legal Way), no doubt connected with al Qaidah, is conducting terror operations.

Some 70,000 refugees from the east have flooded into Aden. They are being housed 70-a-room in local schools. UN offices are filling and placing sandbags all around its compound. The UN is a prime target, as the terrorists prefer to render the country completely destitute, as a way to power.

High tension remains between the opposition (complex) and the government; and within the army (many dissident soldiers) and with the opposition (the street challenges the traditional dissidents).

Readers of this blog have known of the humanitarian needs of the Yemenis since February 2011.

Though US operations last autumn killed Anwar Aulaki and other leaders of AQAP (Al Qaida of the Arabian Peninsula, this is no way ended the group. Furthermore, other Al Qaida-type terrorists may be crossing from Somalia to the Yemen. Will Yemen become another Somalia? Indeed, the clash of interests and identities may well draw in terrorist elements.

Yemen is not like Somalia, being much more complex. Yemenis are master farmers, while Somalis are expert camel breeders. Maybe all the diverging elements can check each other in ways that bring them together in a new government.

Central Government Failing in Libya -

The Benghazi offices of the National Transitional Council were overrun by street-generated armed former soldiers and Islamist ideologues. The government cannot persuade dissident rebel groups from handing in their weapons. The towns and cities remain under municipal control, and some rebel groups, tribally based, like the Mishurata, the Zawiya and Tripoli groups, have set up prisons to hold some 50,000 prisoners – those accused of working for the Qaddhafi entity. There is a civil rights catastrophe occurring and the government is not in control.

Syria Prepares for Another Month of Arab League Monitoring -

Both the regime and the protesters are preparing for another month of Arab League monitoring. This time we believe casualties will go down, not up. Too many killed in Syria – at least 6,000. Fighting may break out with Turkey – iof the regime goes after dissidents across the border.

Conditions are extreme in Homs and Hama, in Dar'a and Idlib, and the AL monitoring should lead, if not to peace, then to the transport of food (and water) into these cities. Just as important are seeds and plastic sheeting to make hot houses.

The regime does not care about western sanctions, as its survival is at stake and also because, the Russians will support it. While the situation is not black and white, it is true that the regime has discredited itself through the wanton killing of citizens simply demonstrating.

The author, JPM, is the monitor/instructor for the on line discussion group on Islamic civilization hosted by the graduate alumni office, Harvard University, Cambridge, Massachusetts.

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