Economies Crash in Some Arab Reforming Nations

عدو عاقل خير من أصدقاء الحمقاء.

King Abdullah of Jordan has announced reforms leading to an elected cabinet. He will give up his own power to choose ministers. We will see if such loosening of the royal prerogative will prompt unrest in the streets. It seems that revolutions are triggered by rising expectations. Jordan has some 33 parties. The king is trying to get them to organize themselves into three large parties.

Jordan leads the Arab monarchies which have thus far proven strong enough to not make reforms. Bahrain and Morocco are two monarchies in trouble, while Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar and Oman are proceeding as if nothing has happened.

Morocco's refusal to hold a UN-sanction referendum on independence for the people of Western Sahara, one perhaps the chief precursor to the Arab revolts. One can trace the unrest from SW Algeria (Tindouf) to Algiers. It was the refusal of the crowd to obey police curfews and disband orders that gave the people of Tunisia and Egypt the means to roll up their heavy police state.

All this week the world has been waiting for an assault by the Syrian army on the rebellious town of Jisr Al Sheghour, in Hatai province. Turkey turned against Syria's Ba'athist regime. That special friendship turned to its opposite after the Syria police and army fired into crowds, first in and around Dera'a in the south, then in Homs, north of Damascus. Other sities too have seen big demonstrations, including Baniyas, Raqqah, Irbid, Hama and Latakia.

We often wonder why Damascus and Aleppo (Haleb), Syria's two largest cities, and rivals, did not see any demonstrations. One would think one city would align against the other city. The split, however, is inside the people. The two cikties have enjoyed record prosperity. The Ba'ath regime under Bashar Al Assad has opened up the economy: these two big socialist cities became wealthy, and the citizens are not keen on the demonstrators, as they are destroying business.

What is not being reported is that many of these revolutionary societies has collapsed, economically. First, there was the occupation of the streets and round-a-abouts, shocks which rippled through the whole nation. Secondly, the police were effectively neutralized – and if not neutralized, they attack the crowd – all of which yields a climate of insecurity, just the thing to prevent investors from coming in and starting new businesses. Thirdly, the banking system get crippled, for a variety of reasons. Fourthly, commodities are now much higher – a full 100% higher in just 15 months in the case of food and fuel. Fifth, talented people leave the country, taking their money. Sixth, confusion reigns in government offices: repairs cannot be made, police re-deployed or foodstuffs brought in and distributed.

Yemen is probably the worst off: the country would no doubt fall apart if the Yemenis were not used to living on $1 a day. War has afflicted Yemen for some three weeks, now. Ali Abdullah Saleh plans to return soon, but his vice president, together with opposition leaders, met with Saleh in hospital in Riyadh, trying once again to put through an orderly transition. But Saleh's sons, Ahmed in particular, have sidled up to police and army commanders. No one knows what will happen. The Saudis want Saleh out and all the GCC sheikhdoms are upset that such careful transition planning and procedure, was turned down repeated by the Saleh family.

The people of Yemen, most of them, cannot access clean water, decent housing, jobs, natural gas and gasoline and diesel. Links between regions are snapping, and the worst kind of people – Al Qaideh of the Arabian Peninsula – are trying hard to start a civil war.

In Libya, NATO pounds Qaddafi's forces and facilities and weapons relentlessly. For two weeks, chiefly American jets have been bombing day and night, not just Tripoli, but all over the north – coastal Libya. Qaddafi's forces have fired off their ammunition, and the people of Cyrenaica, Mishratah and Zawiya, have seen such success in fighting Qaddafi's thugs, that Qaddafi's days are truly numbered. Time is not on his side.

Be thankful that Qaddafi has not blown the well heads. That would drive the price of gas over $5 a gallon.

European nations do not seem to get it, re Libya, which is incredible, given Europe's past and future need for Libyan crude. Since the US has to reluctantly lead the attack, expect the Americans to take some 7% of Libya's oil production.

The war in southern Sudan was mercifully brief. On June 12, the North pulled out of Abiyeh, to be replaced by a couple hundred Ethiopian soldiers. Abiyeh is often called 'oil rich' but actually, there's not much oil there. So why fight. Sudan will formally become two nations in July.

Turkey just held successful democratic elections, giving a third victory to Ta'ip Erdowan, who then takes as his goal, a new constitution. That piece of paper cannot be promulgated by the AK Party alone, so it will be interesting. Turkey is a living example, a template for Arab nations seeking reform.

Many of the Arab nations are now disaster zones, in need of urgent humanitarian relief: Yemen, Libya, Eritrea, and Djibouti, but also Egypt and Tunisia.

Iraq is slowly falling back into civil war. The march three weeks of ago through Baghdad led by Mullah Sadr, was only dedicated to defaming the Americans. Of course it was the US's fault to invade back in 2003: George Bush destroyed his country as well as Iraq. But we remember that most everybody believed Saddam was making WMD. The Bush regime's foolish and very dishonest connection between Saddam Hussein and Al Qaidah, meant that the US military was distracted from its primary mission in Afghanistan, Pakistan and against terror worldwide.

Oil prices have not gone down by more than 5%. This indicates two truths: first, the speculators on the New York exchange are nervous, and second,  the oil companies are cashing in big time. Now there is a third factor: oil scarcity. In an early June meeting in Vienna, the OPEC decided not to increase production. Apparently, the oil ministers shouted and even threw things at each other. Two parties developed: pro- and anti-American. The Saudis and the emirates, plus Indonesia, take the sensible view that high oil prices check demand, lowering sales, and therefore profits. But the other grouping: Iran, Venezuella, Ecuador, want money now and also, they have a strange towards the United States, and are willing to jack up prices just to screw the Americans. The whole world suffers, and such short-sighted vindictive policies will lead to irrelevance and bankruptcy.  

Each of the Arab revolutions require another 'revolution' to complete their objectives. A series of mental adjustments are required before the power-possessors will share with the people. None of these revolutions in Arabia are simply black-and-white affairs. But when a government turns military weapons on its own unarmed citizens,  its legitimacy vanishes.

                                                                                 -J. Paul Maynard June 12 2011