Global Impact of the Arab 'Spring.'

Arab Revolutions in a Global Context

The so-called Arab 'spring' aggravates existing systems, most notably in the new, high price for oil. An OPEC meeting earlier this month led to acrimonious shouting and even attempted assaults, between the ministers. Nobody had seen anything like it. The anti-American OPEC hotheads – Iran, Venezuela, Ecuador, want to push the price as high as possible. On the other side are the Gulf monarchies, Kuwait, the UAE, Qatar, Oman and Saudi Arabia – who want to export more oil, so the consumer economies do vnot flounder. They have big investments in the West and will lose big time if the world economy suffers, which it is. But the anti-American forces need buy weapons and ammunition; they have to pay the officers of their national armies; then bribe the people, intimidate them, to go along with the plot to bring down the West.

What makes us so vulnerable is the wretched state of most national economies. Europe, Japan and the USA are in the grips of a depression which is affecting each differently. We developed a very fuel-intensive economy, elaborating our lives, giving us power to move long distances.

Other nations have been affected. Nur Sultan Nazarbaiyev, the long-time president of Kazakhstan, has agreed to step down. Huge protests in Greece and Spain condemn the new austerity measures.

Libya -

NATO aircraft hit a residential quarter in northeast Tripoli, killing four, and giving the rump Qaddahi apparat a propaganda victory. On the 16^th, a motorized column of the Libyan democratic forces was hit by NATO aircraft. That column may have had the last workable tanks in possession of the Benghazi democrats.

The democrats in Libya are not being given the assistance they need, so we are preparing for a regrettable division of the country. Indeed, we expect Saif al Islam Qaddafi to be operating in the steppe zone of Cyrenaica, south of the coastal road. If aid does not arrive, Benghazi might be besieged. The critical point is Adjabiyyah, where the road to Libya's southeast begins.

Syria -

Turkish armor and air units have crossed into Syria to give support to refugees fleeing the Syrian regime. Bashar and Mater Al Assad have wasted their legitimacy by turning automatic and heavy weapons against unarmed civilians. The Turks think they can negotiate with Al Assad. That's not likely. The new camps may be bombed by the Syrian air force, in which case a general war may break pout between the two powers. In the meantime, people are huddling and hunkering down. May neighborhoods are without power, water and bread.

Yemen -

Parts of Yemen are breaking free. The whole eastern part of the country, centered on Sabwa, has fallen under the sway of the American Ayman Auwlaki, chief of Al Qaida of the Arabian Penensula; the south has also fallen to Islamists.

President Ali Abdullah Saled is in Riyadh recuperating. The Saudis may not let him leave. If he goes down, democratic transition will be merely reflective of a deeper tribal dynamic. Anarchy is the enemy.

Yemenis are living without NG, clean drinking water and expensive food.

Morocco -

On the 17^th of June, King Muhammad VI announces parliamentary reform, giving up some of his powers. Then huge protests erupted on the 19th, demanding reform and basic rights. Curiously, the Moroccans don't think much about their annexation of the Western Sahara. It was protests by the Sahrawis around Tindouf last summer and fall that led to the Arab 'spring.' The Moroccan king must hold a referendum on independence – but you'd scarcely know this reading Moroccan media.