Uncivil Wars of Independence: Libya, Syria and the Yemen

Photo: Syrians in Jordan with Jordanian supporters: "Our victory will be written in blood."

The best and the worst are back to back, there for all to see. The Arab revolutions of 2010-11 are costly if not terrifying events, even for those not involved in public demonstrations: rebelling communities have been cut off from electricity, water, food supplies, access to the outer world, for months. The 'innocents', too, face the spectre of civil war – chaos. Even in Egypt and Tunisia economic collapse is like a wolf at the door. Hence the transfusions of cash into those countries last week by the Euro-Americans.

Yet the status quo is not tenable. The genie is out of the bottle. People worldwide know they can quickly gather in manifestations – protest – and disobey police orders to disperse. If the police fire on the protesters - innocent unarmed citizens of their own nation - they forfeit what legitimacy they may have through hard work and just representation over the past three decades.

Mu'ammar Qaddafi, Bashar Al Assad and Ali Abdallah Saleh are three big men, each very different from the others, but they've become tragic figures, war criminals, forfeiting what they had won, a legitimacy.

It is also true that Libya, Syria and Yemen can only be governed well as democracies. Though they speak Arabic, their nations are ethnically diverse: tribes enforce a myriad of largely imagined distinctions. They press for conformity, and most support the status quo, at least till recently. One does not travel in Yemen without tribal permission.

Yet in the cities, there are other organized groups: the processional associations, military cadets, teacher unions, student unions, government employees, retirees, housewives, mothers, sisters, expatriates, Sunni clerics to the south, Zaydi Shi'a in the 'royalist' north, plus the socialists, the communists, the Stalinists and the Maoists. Add to this a score of tribes, each with its history, plus several roving urban groups – teenagers with Blackberries – who possess a proven ability to summon, maneuver, and sustain tens of thousands of protesters.

One can see in the above how much Yemen, Syria and Libya need democracy just to function as a society. All those secular, educated demonstrators need achieve their visions of representational North American-style democracy, if only to present a unified opposition to lawlessness – and to actually govern the country.

Yemen -

Between May 29^th and June 2^nd, some 230 people were killed in the Hasaba district of Sana'a. The army again attacked the fortified home of Sheikh Sadiq Akhmar, chief of the Hashid tribal confederation. The Hashid is the largest tribal grouping, and President Saleh is, or was, a member. They are centered in the south, and were valuable allies to the government in its fight against the Houthi and the Zaydi Shi'a ijn the north, and secessionists in the south, centered on Aden and Makallah. Fighting alongside the Hashid in Sana'a are defecting army and police personnel, professionals, plus thousands of incensed youths.

War broke out in the Yemen after Ali Saleh reneged again on a GCC-mediated transition agreement. He seems to have concluded that he and his family will not be safe from prosecution. Less cynically, he may be trying to hold the country together. The reason he gave for the delay, however, cited the failure or the unwillingness of the opposition, the rebels, to attend the transition ceremony.  How could such an agreement be legal without the presence of the legal opposition?  We still use the word legal to describe the unelected democrats and their tribal supporters. But if they keep rioting, if they have so demonized the government that they cannot be in the same room with (elected) leaders, then their own cause is lost due to both overreach, and to naivete - a Polyannish black-and-white belief that other dark, unseen non-democratic forces and actors, like Al Qaida of the Arabian Peninsula (QAP), or the Houthi or the Shi'a royalist theocrats, will not exploit the unrest for their own narrow aims. QAP is free to plot, and act most anywhere in eastern Yemen.

There was gruesome combat in Ta'izz on June 1, another mountain stronghold, to the south, with some 26 killed. Further south, on the coast of the Arabia Sea, the town of Sinjibar fell to Islamists. Observers in the West flinched, no doubt, to hear this. But these socialist Muslims are not al Qaideh. They do not practice takfir, or the demonization of others (which then licenses their killing). They have social welfare aims and tasks. These moderate Muslim scholars, both Sunni and Shi'a, Sufi or Wahhabi-esque, do deserve some place in government: let them commit themselves to social welfare.

Cultivation of non-terrorist Muslim groups is imperative if the word hopes to see an independent democratic Yemen which does not support al Qaideh and the other, less lethal tribal outfits that kidnap and plunder for profit and for political aims: to stop government attacks..

Life in Sana'a has been deteriorating for nearly three months: a critical lack of drinking water, soaring food prices, very little electricity, no cell phone access, no government services (like sewers and trash), closed schools, and no natural gas to cook on. Transportation has been limited, roving bands are combing the hills and valleys, and the army simply cannot function without money, lots of money. The government of Yemen spent some $40 billion last year, yet can barely raise 1 billion from tax revenues, permits and fines.

Yemen, Afghanistan, Tajikistan and Pakistan are three nations whose governments are being funded by the international community. Sovereignty is qualified, especially when terror groups hatch plots in those countries, killing innocents in other lands.

Of course the leaders of these nations insist on absolute sovereignty, at least for themselves, their friends and families. But international law is clear: absolute sovereignty, if there ever was such a thing, is forfeited when a nation lets evil death squads – bomb-bearing terrorists - find refuge amongst its people.

Syria -

Syria is another country whose governance would be best served by a representational democracy. It's people are too diverse, too poor and too educated to fund, sponsor, and submit to, a narrow autocratic regime.

But for now there's fear and loathing. Everyday Bashar al Assad (or his brother Mahir) is using the army to shell civilian neighborhoods. Mosques have been a favorite target. Some 10,000 citizens have been detained, and 1,113 killed. For example, on Tuesday, May 31^st, 42 were killed, while on Thursday, June 2^nd, 14 civilians were shot dead by the police. Meanwhile, the mutilated body of Hamza Al Khatib became a rallying cry for the rebel democrats. I bet there were 200 Hamza Khatibs.

For over two months, the Syrian police and army have been raiding towns and villages, shooting civilians – their own people. The hard-line response has been implemented by Alawite (also called Nasiri) chiefs of army and police divisions. The president's brother, Mahir Al Assad, is a known psychopath, a potential genocidal maniac. All the tough guys in Damascus back him. And if Bashar starts to ease up, free prisoners, tolerate dissent, then Mahir and his toughs will likely move against his brother Bashar.

Both the Syrian people and government fear the onset of civil war. The tension will not end till the protesters become the police, and the government a citizen-run, democratic talk-shop with its roots and boots on the street.

No, peace is not found in Syria. The government, its police and army, made a dreadful mistake. Basically, they reacted to mere symbolic expression with deadly force. Real soldiers can't imagine using their weapons on civilians, but the Syrian police are not bothered by such scruples. Those 13 kids who were arrested for graffiti in Dera'a, did cross a line – more than one – the first being that graffiti is a punishable offense – the second false line recognized only by a repressive government. “Do not express dissent.” But Syria has been opening to the West, if only by watching films. So they can't put the genie into the lamp.

The West makes an effort to distinguish between a (wo)man's thought and his (her) actions. It is natural, given human sleep, to say one thing and do another. Democracy recognizes human sleep, human identification, separating a man from his utterances, though conspiracy and defamation are unlawful forms of speech. Even as it meets people as they are, contradictory, democracy insists on citizens being informed, prepared. What benefit is a majority if it is a narrow, ignorant one, one whose willful ignorance will impact more decisively on the nation than any foreign war?

Meanwhile, the Syrian opposition has been meeting in Antalya, Turkey. Outside Syria, they came together quickly – and that is democracy - disparate folks coming together, to choose leaders, and platforms, and to study their own policy dreams. It does seem that, given some time, like five or eight years, Syria will become a representational democracy.

But the war is not over, and Syrian government still possesses a small measure of legitimacy, just a fraction it once enjoyed, before it ordered police and soldiers to kill innocent protesters. The Syrian government has worked hard to make a nation where disparate ethnic and sectarian groups can live and work together without mutual predation, repression or fear.

As for the socialist Ba'ath regime, this, too, deserves some credit, unlike the Iraqi Ba'ath. Iraqi academics estimate “that Saddam Hussein killed between 30,000 and 50,000 people each year, on average.” Al Assad and his son Bashar kill only 2,000-3,000 a year. Such behavior is nonetheless destructive. Perhaps we should hold Bashar al Assad to a higher standard than SH. One might wonder if some broad agreement, a ceasefire, with amnesty, and prisoner release, might be the first step back to peace. The Syrian government contains officials who are learned, able, devoted to the people. It just might be that Bashar Al Assad and others close to him, might choose to work to turn Syria into a representational democracy. But to do that he would need the solid support of the Alewite chiefs, and that would mean out-maneuvering, neutralizing, Mahir Al Assad and his thugs.

As it stands now, unknown actors stalk the urban shadows. It's fear and loathing in Homs, Baniyas, Latakya, Raqqah, Dera'a, and in some suburbs of Damascus, Aleppo (Haleb), and Hama. (On June 3, after prayers, a huge demonstration gathered force in Hama, which government chose not to confront). As Sunni MB teams enter from Lebanon, Jordan and Turkey, the army will pay more attention to intercepting these hit teams, with less resources to harass the protesters in the towns and cities.

It is not possible to discern what is happening in the rural communities. In Syria, reporters are not allowed entry. As for the correspondents, they do not travel at all into the 'rural zone.' So there is a big blackout – very little news about the subsistence farmers and herdsmen, and all the small traders and artisans who keep the rural economy fit.

The spectacular rise of the cities has impacted squarely on the rural sector. Most of the rural young people left for the city or town, depriving many rural communities of their strongest members. Urbanization in the region since 1900 has been outside of control: immigrants just construct shanties. Some find jobs, but many are under-employed. You can find them each day at their cafes.

The UNO and national government departments believe the population of the earth might double once again. They never mention that cities are already coming apart because of sprawl and pollution, or that thousands of villages are dying.

Libya -

NATO launches nightly air strikes against targets, some of which are being spotted by Libya democratic forces inside Tripoli. Like Ali Saleh of Iraq and Bashar Al Assad of Syria, Libya's Mu'ammer Qaddafi refuses to step down. Furthermore, too many democratic rebels have been murdered for there to be an easy transition. Qaddafi knows full well that he's being hunted: his orders to shoot to kill his own people puts him beyond the pale. The man is no longer the legal leader of Libya. Anyone can kill him with impunity. Of course the Qaddafi entity, his 'person,' is fully invested, crystallized around the idea, the experience, of being Number One (1). Though outside observers were often amused by his clownish antics and eccentricities, the subject has actually done more damage to the hopes of the world's middle class, than anyone else. Since 1970, Qaddafi has effected a 7-fold increase in petroleum prices. It was not all his fault: the oil companies would jack up their prices, once Qaddafi did so. This became routine. Qaddafi screwed his customers by repeatedly charging 'premiums on top of premiums.' Everybody will benefit with the end of his extortionate game.

Qaddafi is actually a real split persona – like Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde. He's mentally ill in this disassociation of his psychic parts: his right hand does not know what his left is doing. Saif al Islam, his son, operates on other lines, in close cooperation with military and secret police. He blew it months ago when he viciously attacked and humiliated the protesters. NATO is trying to get him, but he's using private residences in Sirte to plan and deploy his forces into Al Brega.  Even Adjabiyyeh is not safe, and that town is vital, for it is the terminus of the one road to the southeast Libyan desert, where 2/5ths of Libya's oil is found.

No one knows how Libya will play out. Qaddafi may think time is on his side. He thinks he can bring in sufficient ammunition through the south, from his African friends.

All the attention is on the coasts. But in the south, in smaller towns and outlying villages there are other narratives. The vital oasis of Al Kufrah, in Libya's extreme southeast, was taken over by Qaddafi forces some 2 weeks ago. Kufrah is village, very remote; it abuts another oasis to the north, Al Jawf. Approximately 2/5ths of Libya's oil in just a mile's radius around Al Kufrah. Can NATO even deploy forces into such a remote place? Egypt, for perverse and selfish reasons, will not let the US deploy SOF into the Western Desert, for an assault on Al Kufrah. Such a mission would need be conducted by the French and British, staging in Chad, with cooperation from the African Union.

Al Kufrah is small oasis, and features a bizarre American-style tract of miniature houses all alike, ringed by a wall,next to a small city center with market. There's a small airfield. Apparently anti- and pro-Qaddafi forces fought it out for two months. Armed with heavy weapons, Qaddafi's men may hold the town, but the rebels can easily slip out into that great ocean called the Sahara. But neither side opted to blow the well heads.

World petroleum prices should go down and not up over the fact that no one has torched the fields in Libya. Soon, contracts signed by Qaddafi will have run their course, leaving the world free to enjoy Libyan crude at less extortionate prices - unoless the Benghazi democrats go for it - keep in place Qaddafi's pricing policies.

Qaddafi no doubt has a unit in Sabha, ready to receive him. The colonel has traveled much around the south of his country, in the Fezzan, in the Sahra Marzuq, the Sarir Tibesti plateau, the northern slopes of the Tibesti Mountains, in the Sahra Rabyanah and the Libyan desert. The Fezzan (southwest) is a world in itself: some 50 communities, settled and pastoral, linked by roads, including Sabha but also Birak, arzuq, Albari, Adiri and Ghat/al Birka, on the border with Algeria. Qaddafi has helped these people with paved roads, wells, and so has a sympathetic base upon which to base some one dozen military and police units. Qaddafi knows the Fezzan very well, and has long developed survival infrastructure not just in his beloved Sabha, but elsewhere.

Back in the north, the democrats of Benghazi and Tripoli (Mishratah) are receiving training and weapons, with ammunition. Qaddafi's forces have been routinely hit from the air by NATO jets, his CC nodes destroyed one by one. The colonel is running like a rat, preferring to take over random private houses for a night. High drama in Tripoli as roving clandestine sniper teams hunt him down. It is a constant cat-and-mouse: detectives are analyzing traffic patterns to see if they find him and his son Saif. Qadaffi needs at least 20 skilled devotees near him. Plus all the couriers. All this can be picked up either by satellites or by observers deployed on the ground. Will the rebels run him down? They just may be able to do that if they get real-time sat photos of Tripoli, Sirte, and Sabha.

Another alternative is to disappear into the desert, masquerading as an old camel caravan, or as a Berber and/or Bedouin clan, replete with camels. He could ride into the sunset, leaving his supporters to fight to the death. Can NATO find him if he does that? No. At least not for a while. Life would go on, of course: a new democratic Libya will emerge. But Qaddafi's legend will persist, overshadowing the peace worked out by his successors..

by John Paul Maynard Amherst, Massachusetts 6/3/2011