Black and White or Shades of Gray?
Serious blood – some 13,000 souls – have perished in the so-called Arab Spring. Certainly they did not die in vain, as future events will show.
But the situation is not so black and white as it may seem to popular democrats, or regime police. Men join the police not to kill civilians but for give them safety; and when they are ordered to shoot into the crowds, they must seem to comply, or face death themselves. Over 500 police and army have been executed by their officers.
This is no apology for turning police and army weapons of civilians. When that happens, legitimacy is indeed lost. But must these revolutions become even more bloody? Forces of reconciliation are visible in Syria, in the Yemen, and in North Africa, from Egypt and Tunisia to Algeria and Morocco.
Libya -
The worst fighting has been in Libya, where we believe some 7,000 Libyans have perished (plus some 330 civilians from other countries).
France under Foreign Minister Francoise Fillon has offered Qaddafi generous offers of retirement, if he'll just move to Zimbabwe. He should be free there from the International Court and Interpol. Let us hope he does exit, with his sons.
But Qaddafi can't turn his back on those henchmen closet to him, his security, so they will have to emigrate also, for the Libyan democratic resistance is not going to forgive all after victory.
Libya has been at war with itself for four (4) months, which is not long for a civil war. Just this weekend we see a Turkish-sponsored meeting of all anti-Qaddafi forces, a effort to forge a better joint military 'method.'
Qaddafi has had four decades to stash large amounts of ammunition. The coastal road may be too hot to travel, but there are many other roads, some running parallel to the coastal road. The depots lie in these areas, and this large area of steppe in southern Cyrenaica (south of the Green Mountain), south Sirtica and south of Tripoli, in the Nafusah Mountains to the west, and further down, in the Fezzan (centered on Sabha).
NATO strikes have destroyed some 65% of Qaddafi's ammo, but 20% of what remains, is effectively out of limits. So Qaddafi's men have some 15% of normal pre-existing stocks. Nor can Qaddafi bring in enough through Africa, as Algeria is not about to let trucks through. In Mali and Chad and Niger, there are small low-intensity conflicts which are, like Libya, slowing working themselves out militarily.
My guess is Qaddafi will not fold. Why? Because he has successfully smothered any protests in Tripoli, a city filled with his supporters. It will not be possible for the democratic opposition to just take it over without a hell of a battle.
At the moment there is a renewed rebel offensive in the Nafusah Mountains, just some 70 km. from Tripoli. Advancing to Tripoli from the south has the advantage of taking Qaddadfi's compound without the mess of city fighting. NATO seems to agree.
Its jets have been hitting concentrations of vehicles, armor, rocket launchers, tank trucks and tank transporters, but is missing Qaddafi's cleverly-disguised artillery emplacements.
Though Qaddafi control Tripoli, there are assassination teams moving around, hoping to catch the Colonel at a bad time. One can imagine a suspense-filled drama entitled “Fear and Loathing in Tripoli” and “Break out at Brega.” Qaddafi and his son Saif should play themselves and die on schedule.
On the 16th of July, the United States recognized the Libyan National Transition Council to be the lawful rulers of Libya, a legal status which would permit aid to be channeled to them – those who are fighting Qaddafi. Qaddafi is now the rebel, the renegade. We hope he and his son will bow out.
Syria -
Huge demonstrations, larger than ever seen before, involving over two millions of Syrian protesters – stuns and confuses the Syrian Ba'athi regime of Bashar Al Assad and his cruel brother Maher. Some 35 were killed Friday after prayers, and during Saturday. This time the cruel shabibha – Alawite irregular militia – were met with demonstrators with sticks – and they fled. This makes the Iranian Guards directing the police, angry. But Syrian police will kill the Persian hotheads if they shoot too many civilians in Syria.
Huge demonstrations took place in Damascus' Qaboun (14 killed) and Barzeh neighborhoods. In the Rukh ad Din neighborhood, shabibha attacked a wedding party, triggering violence, and more shooting. Other protesters were lured to a 'reconciliation meeting then arrested, while those fleeing were shot at. Poor form.
Talk about forgiveness...The regime held a big reconciliation meeting for the express purpose of charting out how to turn Syria into a representational multi-party democracy. But the hard-core militant opposition stayed away. It is hard to predict the future, but we look to a weakening of both the regime and the hard-core sectarian opposition: moderates should take office, replacing many loyal but deluded brutes.
Huge demonstrations broke out after Friday prayers on the 15th of July, in Homs, Hama, even Damascus and Aleppo. Ba'athi thugs kill some 35, presumably rioters coming at them or carry or firing guns. Remember, the Syrian regime employs a million secret police, in some eleven different police and security organizations.
But that's only one in twenty. We assume, after these huge mega-demonstrations, that a full one half of Syrian citizens have exhibited some 'resistance.' So that means there is one cop for every ten demonstrators. No problem, in the old days. But today, superior communications amongst the protesters run circles around the police.
But Bashar and Mater cannot deploy many of these units, being fragile and Sunni-controlled. So the Iranian fanatics are called in. Their spokesman makes it very simple. “Our enemy is America.”
Frankly, we were surprised at the size of the demonstrations, several over 250,000 people. It seems everybody was out. Or almost. The government can do nothing faced with this level of civil disobedience. What can it do? Every time it guns down a protester, it signs its own death warrant.
The Iran revolutionary guards are close to the front line as Syrian army and intel sec. organs target group leaders and aggressive rioters. When last week the American ambassador drove up to Homs and Hama, people cheered. But the mullahs snapped, if you read some of their sermons: “Why, of all people, do you clap for the American?”
Of course the Sunni mullahs and muftis are virulent and have been ever since Britain and France forced the Sublime Porte to litigate all sectarian and ethnic groups as equal in court. This happened around 1860, after the Crimean War. It was then that Jews, Armenians, Shi'a, Druze were targeted by the Sunni clerics.
The idiotic beliefs and grotesque distortions of Islam preached by the zaney Wahhabi clerics found ample room to expand into Syria and Lebanon, in the form of the Muslim Brotherhood. The original Brothers (Ikhwan) were in Saudi Arabia, and were arch-Wahhabis. So the two are linked.
Sunni disaffection really did preclude Sunnis from leadership positions, and led to monsters like Saddam Hussein. Alas, Iraq was not to be one of the prosperous care-free Arab Gulf monarchies. But even the harmonic sheikhdoms are fearful of their Shi'a, and young intellectuals, particularly women, who are pressing for rights, even in Saudi Arabia.
Hama is a battle cry for the MB in Syria. As we saw last week, the Syrian army had ringed the city with tanks, just like 1982. (Note: we were in Hama in 1980 and found it tense even then).
Also, on Friday, another 4 protesters were shot dead in Dera'a in the south, while in the north, along the Turkish border, Syrian armor has been shelling Idlib (killing 2).
Five days back Turkish foreign minister Davutoglu met with Ahmedinijad in Tehran. Turkey will not let Iran stop the democratization of Syria, Iraq and Afghanistan. Islamic solidarity just does not seem to matter for much nowadays.
Yemen -
Even as we write, President Ali Abdullah Saleh may be in the air, ready to land in Sana'a to the cheering of his many supporters. Maybe not. We haven't yet received reports swhether Saleh actually made it back to Yemen. There, he is so weak that he can be just a figurehead. His relatives, however, control the Republican Guards, and are fighting in the south to keep the country together.
The north of Yemen is controlled by Gen. Ali Mohsen, a defecting general, while the south is controlled by Saleh's sons. There are constant clashes and fist fights all through Yemen as neighbors spar over the question of tribal dominance.
Meanwhile, the Al Ahmar familiar, merchants closely tied to the Saudis, are expected to put forth again the GCC agreement for transition, but are searching for a strong man that can hold Yemen together. The Saudis do not want a democracy on its borders.
This should worry the secular educated people who initiated this revolution. Who can they turn to? All the different factions check each other: no one rules. And this is good for a democratic emergence, if the country just does not come apart in the process.
-John Paul Maynard
e mail: johnpaulmaynard@post.harvard.edu
No comments:
Post a Comment