A Huge Demonstration in Syria - Largest Yet.

الحكيم العدو هو أفضل من صديق أحمق. "A wise enemy is better than a foolish friend."

Intensification and Focusing in the New Waves of Protest

Syria -

In Syria (and in the Yemen), huge crowds took to the streets, the largest demonstrations yet, some say. In Damascus, demonstrators avoided downtown, but congregated in streets, careful not to block all traffic. In Hama, the long-suffering district of Bab Sba'a saw 4 protesters were gunned down by a tank.

Some 24 have been killed this Friday, July 1, 2011: Homs, Idlib, Hama, Damascus and Latakia, plus the eastern Kurdish towns (e.g. Amouda) – all featured 'huge manifestations of discontent.'

After 14 weeks of unrest, some 1,300 civilian protesters (or on-lookers) have been shot dead. The Syrian government says some 500 of its soldiers and police have been shot dead. Not a pretty scene. Gunmen have sought to use the demonstrations for sectarian ends. (The Muslim Brotherhood has sent arms and fighters over the Shouf Mountains into Syria. How many, we do not know.)

On the 27^th of June, there was an attempt to reconcile. The government permitted a large meeting, featuring some 150 Syrian intellectuals. An effort to exchange reform ideas, maybe eventually to ease a transitional government in place.

But most rebel organizations rejected the reconciliation, failing to attend the meeting. Maybe they were afraid. In any case, they stayed away. They vow to fight till Bashar Al Assad (and his creepy brother Maher) is dead or gone. We see no end to it. But only crackpots want a sectarian war.

The possibilities are breath-taking. A poor, socialist nation, Syria has cleverly mechanized its agriculture, setting up co-operatives and agronomy extenion classes, as well as granaries. Like other Mid East countries, Syria has long been intent on upgrading its housing. The little cinder block houses up in the mountains above Damascus, were liveable even in the winter. They remind me of 'high Kabul' – those neighborhoods that go right up the mountain. In Kabul, there's no natural water on those hills, but the Syrians used Soviet help to drill deeply.

The Arab Spring affected many Syrians, even since  2 January 2011 when an Algerian protest defied the police orders to disperse and obey curfew. The regime's inner culture of state violence behaved as predicted: the police and army shot right into civilians, unarmed, often in mosques or coming out of them. There's little doubt that villages are arming themselves against each other. But where will that lead?

No one wants a sectarian war – except for a few crazed clergy or their henchmen, or gangster gun-runners, profiting from sales to both sides. Like the Guns of August, this August may see a 'broadening of the demonization' of your neighbor, and the grotesque dumbing down of commune identity into “us against them:” Black and white. The superb oral defamation becomes, next week, fingers on triggers. "Do not bear false witness against one another."

The Sunni-Shi'a conflict is a luxury that the people of the Western Asia can ill afford. Exactly what are their differences? They both claim to follow the same man. But Muhammad Qureyshi was a modest man. He didn't see himself as a messiah or universal law giver or even as a teacher. The Qur'an keeps a tight rein on Muhammad saying that he is only one who warns. That 's what a prophet does: warn.

Under Bashar and ten others, Syria has grown in certain sectors, held by certain families. For three months we didn't hear of demonstrations in Damascus and Aleppo (Halab). But now all these wealthy businessmen and their families and employees, now verge on bankruptcy. And so, they're going out onto the streets themselves.

Syria was replete with clandestine groups, including firms and neighborhood watch police apparat. Now, curiously, these groups are cultivating both pro- and anti-Bashar demonstrators. Many have to do that – play both ends off the middle.

Libya -

Mu'ammar al Qaddafi was indicted by the International Court, together with his son Saif al Islam, for crimes against humanity – the brazen use of military weapons against the Libyan people.(June 28).

Libyan rebels based in Tunisia, have deployed into the Jabal Nafusa and are now within 50 miles of Tripoli. Pro-Qaddafi army units have tried to surround these forces, yet have so far failed. This front draws off two brigades of the army, which would be used elsewhere, to commit atrocities and to terrorize.

On July 1, Qaddafi vows to bring the war to Europe. No doubt there are groups of Libyans who want Qaddafi to succeed, but they are diminishing. If European states want to protect themselves, hire some democratic rebels to infiltrate their groups.

Russia announced June 30 that the Euro-American war against the Colonel was highly 'immoral and improper.' The Russian leadership worried that unrest will spread into Russian streets. Vlad Putin would fire into the crowd, but Dmitri Medvedev?

The Republicans in the USA publicly chastise and castigate the president for 'going into Libya when we have no interest there.' We find this the height of irony, because the only economy and market these Republicans know, the Americans ones, is based on cheap oil from the Middle East and North Africa.

Their religious leaders are also ignorant of the many mistranslations of their scriptures, so end treating their religion as a holy war, in America as in Pakistan, a fight to the finish, against the Muslim fiend. This is how some Americans thinks, and not just ijn the South.

The future of Libya is, like Syria, full of promise, opportunities not even imagined just a few months ago. Who could pass up retirement in, say, Cyrenaica? We know there are many scholars in Libya, that they have certain keys, no one else does, an inner knowledge of the Saharan ocean, but a knowledge of the oceans too – the Atlantic. That explains why there is more than one rock inscription in the USA written in ancient Libya using Ogam (learned from Tarshish).

Egypt -

Readers of this report know we have been waiting for another Tahrir manifestation: some 5,000 protesters gathered there, in Cairo, to protest the lenient treatment being given to many police suspected of murdering Egyptian unarmed civilians. Attending this demonstration were many mothers and sons and brothers and sisters and friends, of those killed by the police. Here we see straight-forward vengeance. The police felt the same way for they didn't hesitate to attack, injuring some 1,000.

The Arab Spring has been ruinous to national and urban economies. It's not hard to see why the authorities wanted to keep Tahrir Square free for traffic. Food prices, the price of clear fresh water, electric power, kerosene, gasoline, NG, propane – all way up in price– double in just 16 months. So even in rich Bahrain, there are starving Shi'a.

Yemen -

The Yemeni people are in rough shape, lacking NG, gasoline, diesel, electric power, cheap food, decent housing, and enough food. Yemen is already a humanitarian disaster, and we will just close our eyes if and when Ali Abdullah Saleh returns to Sana'a. His two sons hold command positions in the army, and he has relatives all over – many have gotten rich. One reason Saleh will not resign the presidency, is that he must protect his patrimony =- all his 'children.' They can't liquidate their properties so fast.

Yemen consists of some 16 regions, and they are all diverging, that is, they falling back on more traditional; practices, like fishing from small boats, or erecting dikes across wadis, very old tricks, perfect for a Yemen which needs to grow its own food.

The tribes are boss – you can't travel without tribal permission. The remote eastern third of Yemen , including the Hadramaut, is an al Qaida safe-haven. The US is reportedly beginning a drone war 'in earnest' against Al Qaida of the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) but, since they do not have any of their people on the ground, they are relying on agents whose allegiances and affiliations are 'opaque.'

Morocco -

A referendum on a new constitution passes by a wide margin. King Muhammad the Sixth announces his signature of the reforms. He's giving up all authority except the army, the judiciary and the clerics. He forgot to mention the several branches of the secret police. So what powers do the king give to the rabble: A prime minister is to be elected, and a parliament that is competent.

Many progressive protesters don't believe it. But they are not going to turn on their king. Morocco is so fractious most everyone looks to the monarchy as their last hope. The issue of the southern Sahara is not discussed. It is true, down in Samara, in the Western Sahara, people are doing swell. But three out of four of them are settlers from Morocco proper. The natives have been chased out and now dwell in tents outside Tindouf, Algeria. With only 2,000 fighters, they present no real security threat. Morocco has had some bombings, targeting foreigners, it seems, but these were the work of Salafis, not the 'rebels', not the 'remote remnants of a Tuareg nation.'

But behind these ceremonial event stands the reality of Morocco's selfish annexation of the Spanish Sahara. As we saw earlier, it was this refusal to hold a UN-mandated referendum, that touched off a summer and autumn of protests, chiefly around Tindouf SW Algeria).

Morocco's successful referendum is not be seen a sign of reconciliation for many. Some 4 million Moroccans declined to vote at all. Just as the Israeli annexation of Palestine will always be seen as stolen land, so too will Morocco's annexed Southern Sahara be always seen as an illegal land grab. The right wing leaders of both nations do not entertain the thought that the original inhabitants might have some rights, like owning their own land. US and European response has often been contradictory.

Bahrain -

Government holds talks with Shi'a opposition. We do not know whether King Hamad Al Khalifa or the crown prince Salman bin Khalifa are acting under pressures (from the USA), internal and external. The awful irony of the Bahraini situation is that the government had long welcomed parliamentary discussions. Why do the Shi'a see talking in parliament anathema? The other weird thing is that 'innocent' 'secular non-sectarian educated protest occupying the main traffic circle (Pearl Square), were shot upon, and this led the back of the crowd (sectarian Shi'a imams) to take over and then maneuver protesters, increasing their demands to the removal of the government, its royal family, the police, intel and army command. What, are they jokers?

With the government opening up talks, will the back of the protests come forward? Or will the secular non-sectarians re-capture the opposition movement? While these reconciliation meetings were going on, a large group of cleric-led protesters were dispersed with water cannon and tear gas.

Sudan -

Unnecessary war in South Central Sudan: Kordofan erupts in violence as peasants scamble to get on the right side of the line. Sudan becomes two nations next Saturday. "The southern Sudan is like a new-born baby, needs delicate care if it is to survive.

Israel/Palestine -

The Free Gaza flotilla is some 56 boats planning to break through Israeli defenses and land supplies to the beleaguered HAMAS reps, who've not been so popular these days. There was the HAMAS-led 'unity agreement,' which fell apart when FATAH realized the religious bigots were going for control over all of 'Islamic' Palestine.  FATAH under Mahmud 'Abbas has a more practical approach to the Israelis. So once again we see that Palestinians fall victim to the politics of symbolic appeal.

Israel and Gaza may be existential enemies, but HAMAS keeps the lid on, forbidding the launching of rockets into the West Bank and Israel. So, in acting against certain Salafi organs and cells, the HAMAS is a perfect  ally to the Jews. As long as the Arab leaders keep declaring their wish to drive Isfrael into the sea, the Israeli right will use that rhetorical ill-discipline to its own advantage; even to the point of annexing whole tracts of Arab land.

By John Paul Maynard

The author is the new moderator of the graduate alumni discussion group on Islamic civilization, Harvard University.              johnpaulmaynard@post.harvard.edu