Who's in Charge anyways?

الذي هو في أي حال تهمة؟

Libya – Qaddafi's forces pull back

The democratic rebels have forced Qaddafi back into his Tripoli redoubt. Tripoli is cut from its thee supply lines: from Sabha and the Fezzan to the south, through the terminal and refinery at Zawiya on the western coast, and through the border coastal road with Tunisia. Note: Tripoli falls to the democratic rebels on August 22, 2011.

Unable to verify that Qaddafi is talking to the resistance, we look to the end game. Under nightly NATO bombardment, Qaddafi has been running like a rat from one private home after another. There must be many mobile teams of shooters out to get him.

Can the Mad Dog of Tripoli fight it out? Everything depends on close coordination between NATO pilots and their navigators, and Libya democratic forces on the ground. At the moment, both sides are preparing for the next step: a drive on Tripoli.

Qaddafi can't marshal and deploy armor or even artillery without bringing down fighter bombers. This is why we can predict Qaddafi will be dead within six (6) days.

This is good news for the whole world. The fears of the investors have pushed the price of gasoline up almost a dollar or 33% above its pre-war price. One must also mention the speculators and oil companies who take advantage of these fears. The end of the war in Libya means that some one million barrels a day of the finest oil on the planet, will flow into Europe.

But does not the USA deserve some of that splendid Saharan crude? Long ago the USA outlawed any importation of oil from Libya, because of terrorism. Obviously, the situation has changed: Qaddafi will be driven into exile or killed.

Qaddafi was, is, the man who spoiled the party. The middle classes all over the world had to pay ever more for their gasoline and diesel. Since 1970, Qaddafi engineered a relentless cost-hike – taking advantage of Libya's superb low-sulfur petroleum, as well as the close distance between Libya and its European customers.

At times the premiums Qaddafi added reached 400% of the original price. In recent times, I would guess the premiums have ranged from 25% to 60%. The new government will also charge premiums, but at roughly a rate one third (1/3) of Qaddafi's premiums.

The democratic rebels will not forget who helped them, so this is an excellent chance to (prepare to) purchase fresh Libyan crude. The USA should make it a policy priority to import appx. 7% of Libya's oil production.

The bulk of this oil will be shipped to Newfoundland, where three huge new refineries will crack it for New England customers. This small, original part of the USA has no oil or gas, and is politically vulnerable to gunslinger politicians from Texas and other Southern centers. Now that most of New England's electrical power is streaming down from Quebec, it is only fitting that its petroleum products keep coming down from Newfoundland.

Syria -

More oppression – another 100 or so killed this week, in Latakya, Homs and in villages and suburbs, as Mater Al Assad deploys his strong army (and paramilitary shabibha) on some 27 fronts. Bashar said on the 18^th of August: “We are ending all military operations” but of course Bashar is not exactly in command of the eight Syrian intelligence outfits, plus his army and police. And sitting with Bashar are some 20 Ba'athi 'princes and princesses.' And they don't control it. It's Mater.

Actually, one can almost double the casualties reported, just to show the numbers of Syrian officers and soldiers killed, often by their own men.

How long can this go on? The whole world is calling for Al Assad to step down. But if he did, who would keep Mater and his Alewite thugs in check?

The UN will soon hand the Case of Syria to the International Criminal Court.

Indeed, we are impressed by the activist diplomacy of the Turks, the Western Europeans and the United States. The Turks had just made a “very special peaceful embrace” of Bashar's new Syrian regime. The Europeans were taking Syria's oil surpluses. The USA supported Syria multi-ethnic and inter-denominational balance.

The UN and the Arab League have also shown new faces, willing to come together free of political posturing. The Arab League did in fact authorize NATO actions in Libya. Of course Syria is different, and only Turkey and Israel are in a position to intervene militarily.

Meanwhile, Mater and his friends and cousins will keep up the desultory bombardment of civilian housing blocks and mosques. Thousands are being imprisoned. We estimate ten a day are perishing in detention. Will the Sunni majority in the (lower ranks) army rise up against their officers? If it keeps going on, this war against the people, you will see splits in the intel services and the armed forces.

But who is willing to just watch the slaughter month after month? Unlike Libya, the Syrian civil war can continue indefinitely. So, a radical diplomatic approach is called for.

That approach is to have the Ba'athi government, at its highest levels, to step down, choosing internal or external exile. But the Muslim Brotherhood must not be allowed to take over the government. Though they are the best organized, and have long martyrial traditions, blood to avenge, the Brothers are actually a tiny minority. In Syria, most everyone is educated. So they are not about to hand the revolution over to the Islamists.

If the rebels in Turkey can line up a cabinet, then perhaps there might be one-to-one meeting, up and down the line, permitting a graceful exit, followed by genuine reconciliation. That's the only way I see to bring the Syrian atrocities to an end.

Yemen - A New Regional Configuration

President Ali Abdullah Saleh is still in hospital in Riyadh. Though he vows to return, that would likely cause civil war, a resumption of it. It looks like stasis and static in Sana'a, but people are talking. The demonstrators are split between two groups. One is the group of educated secular professionals, the other is the shabab on the street. So time is needed to talk things out.

Half of the Yemenis are age 20 or below, and we know that the human brain in adolescents is not fully developed, specifically the frontal cortex, which is required should one care to know the consequences of one's actions. In Egypt, Tunisia, Libya, Syria as well as in the Yemen, there is quiet un-published struggle underway between the youth and the elders.

Yemen features diverse cultural and economic zones. The national government can barely keep hold of Aden and the south (Himyar and the Hadramaut), while the Tihama along the Red Sea coast still functions as a port (Al Hudaydah) and cultural center (Mocha and Zabid). With the withdrawal of army, government and district police one watches as these regions revert to tribal and sectarian rule.

The USA is involved. Though condemned wherever it goes, most Arabs and Pashto recognize the legitimate right to revenge. So let us not cheer the genocidal terrorists operating now in Eastern Yemen. Let us not condemn all the various Muslim groups. Remember, Islamic law (shari'a and fiqh) is preferable to tribal codes, not just for women, but economically as well.

Unfortunately America's knowledge of Islam is so pathetic it cannot engage in any intelligent dialogue with in situ Muslim communities. Though the US is a Muslim nation, it has no academic center that can study the shari'a and fiqh without bias.

The first thing one should ask anyone calling himself a Muslim, or anyone professing to know about Islam, is: How does Muhammad's teaching at Medina differ from the religion that later evolved?

Egypt – End of Peace with Israel?

Palestinian terrorists from Gaza were able to transit the Sinai peninsula and attack Israeli tourists in Eilat, Israel. The Israelis over-reacted as usual, using aircraft to hunt down “terrorists” into Egypt, succeeding in killing three Egyptian soldiers.

The Egyptians are all indignant, withdrawing their ambassador. But it is clear that when the new government of Egypt, took down the barriers separating Egypt from Gaza, Palestinian strike teams were able to transit the Sinai and hit Eilat.

All this augurs poorly for continued peace. Popular demand and acclamation control the Egyptian military's response. Relations with Hamas are re-established.

Israel, which was witnessing its own street protests when the attack occurred, turned sour, causing an end to the demonstrations. Obviously both Israel and Egypt are responsible. But such is the spin on both sides, that negotiations are not possible. We don't foresee war. But as long as Israel insists on holding stolen land, it will be open to organized resistance, including the targeting and firing of missiles from Iran, Lebanon, Syria and perhaps someday  Egypt as well.

Iraq - Stepping back from the Abyss

The Iraqi government if paralyzed on the question of American troops in Iraq. Even the pro-Iranian Nur Al Maliki administration does not care to throw the country to the Iranian wolves. The Sunnis see the Americans as the last step before civil war - the abyss. Lewd imposters decorate the scene, and the ministers tell outside investors "this is a gold mine."

Jobs, food, fuel, housing - these are the basic wants characterizing Iraqi lives as much as the Arabs. Saddam left a country with some infrastructure. But those superhighways he built only hastened and made easy the invasion by the Americans. That battle back in 2003 cannot be discussed in the street.

Everywhere we look we see anti-Americanism, not as an attitude or position, but from an existential need, it seems. Erroneously these Muslim think America is against Islam, or supports Israel's theft of Arab land in Palestine and Syria. Terror targeting against the US has regrettably changed American's view of Islam. If ordinary Muslims are innocent, they would have successfully interrupted the work of God-less  paper-machet 'Muslims,' so they think.

The Wider Context -  Themes of Protests

There has been a rise in demonstrations, world wide. China has experienced some 12,000 protests just since 2008. There are (small) protests in Algeria at any given time. Bahrain of course is trying to heal the unfortunate rift opening up between its Sunni and Shi'a populations. Saudi Arabia is concentrating on its intelligence operatives in eastern Yemen, and we expect them to use heavy weapons, or call on the Americans to employ drones to track and kill 'the American,' (A. Awlaki) and his lieutenants.

Europe has seen an intensification of public protests, largely over austerity matters, but also pro- and anti-Muslim immigrants. Corruption is also a common theme. Also, there have been 'slut protests' by women against male abuse in public and private.

 There have been environmental protests in Brazil, Chile and in Meso-America. Mexico has become a failed state. Are Arab states 'failed?' Yes and no. Mexico has had revolutionary government since 1810, while Arab states have little experience with democracy.

Indeed leading Islamists are stepping forward to proclaim that Islam is anti-thetical to Islam. But not so. Muhammad said: "The government and the people must consult with each other at every step." But more primarily, Bedouin tribes elect their sheiyks. Muslims on all level meet often to discuss issues, and many of these meetings end with a show of hands. That's democracy.

							-by John Paul Maynard