Intensification of violence

Intensification of Violence in Syria, Yemen and Libya

Libya -

A month ago the Libyan democratic fighters opened a new front in the northwest, through the Nafusa Mtns., to Bir Ghanim. Control of that town shifted back and forth. Latest report is that NATO bombers are keeping Qaddafi's artillery and armor at bay. Possession of Bir Ghanim permits an organized drive on Zawiye, some 30 miles distant. That's Qaddafi's last petroleum terminal.

The reason we can seriously talk about a drive on Tripoli is that, thanks to NATO bombing, Qaddafi can't concentrate and if he deploys broadly, to cover his flanks, they get rolled up, clipped and hunted down like dogs. The rebels are using fast 'technicals' to continually outflank. Qaddafi can't field three separate armies.

Libya's Transitional National Council reshuffles its executive branch, a move praised immediately by the NATO countries. Now, over 30 nations recognize the TNC as the lawful government of Libya.

Syria -

Last week the world community called on the Syrian government to just stop firing at unarmed demonstrators. But once again, the Al Assad entity is using naked violence to terrorize whole cities. Fighting thus against its own people, 99% of them unarmed, the Ba'athi regime has lost its legitimacy. That's a sorrow deep felt, for we had hopes for the young Lion.

If the Sunni Muslims gain control in Syria, they will link up with the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt and elsewhere. America will lose prestige. But the Shi'a thrust through Iran, Iraq, Syria, Lebanon (Hizbullah) and Gaza (Hamas), would be thwacked on the snout.

Is this a balance we foresee? There must be a third factor. People in the Arab world blame the Americans and the Israelis for every thing. They believe their own propaganda, so just shoot themselves in their feet. What is the third force?

Well, on the one side, the broad Sunni population, led by the reformed Ikhwan, while on the other, Shi'a communities bent on retaining control. The third force is what is being phased out – secular politics: parliament, army, the executive, education, intel, et al.

Maybe the sun will come out, maybe the clouds over Cairo and Tunis and Algiers and Tripoli and Manama and the Yemen and Lebanon and Syria and Israel and Palestine, will part, so the sun can shine directly on the land. Sunlight is a third force.

Meanwhile, the Syrian army launched artillery and armor against Homs and villages around Homs, such as Saraqeb. Dayr Az Zaur in the east was also attacked. The regime says it will fight armed terrorists to the end, referring largely to soldiers and police who chose not to fire on the people, and who are now being hunted down.

Yemen -

Instability punctuated by rifle and canon fire as Yemen reverts to its regions. A revolt by the south is no new thing – the last happened in 2007 – but, with the president outside the country, his sons and nephews have a full plate just keeping control of Aden in the Himyar region, in the far south.

Meanwhile, in Sana'a, Saleh's army is fighting elements of the Al Hashid tribal confederation, led by the Al Ahmar family. All this heavy conflict alienates the street, which still is pacifist democratic. But the street is not wise or in the mood for reconciliation. It rejects the wisdom of the intellectuals and the elders, the secular socialists, and the professors. These younger radicals, armed with electronic devices, can trigger flash mobs, and they want a clean sweep: all government personnel must resign.

Originally, the Yemeni demonstration had to do just with lowering food prices and housing costs, jobs and a representational government. But as Saleh fired into his own people, demands for his ouster prove paramount.

Algeria -

Algeria stays cool, proud that it has avoided the turmoil afflicting Libya, Syria and the Yemen. Several times we have noted the original Jan.11 riots, over food. The government cut the price and pledged to build more houses and apartments.

On January 11, the Algerian demonstrators defied a police curfew, and orders to disband, and this brazen challenge to the authorities, helped trigger and effect the revolution in Tunisia.

The doctors and the teachers have been on strike. Since March 29, the doctors have been on strike, protesting random posting to the interior. The teacher unions have been fighting for full recognition of all teachers, from pre-school to professor. On Apr. 24^th, the police attack teachers demonstrating.

On June 23, after two months of talks, the Algerian government agrees to amend its own constitution, to assure individual human rights, re-focus state money to projects which help the poor, and which bring in direct representation.

Algeria may avoid another civil war, but Islamist politics are seething. The top Salafist, Abdelmalik Ramdani, made a TV appearance where he told Algerians that “democracy is not compatible with Islam.” The Christians in Algeria are also under severe discrimination, on a local level.

Algeria is still called 'a booming place' by French investors, and true, the government has tripled its supply of fresh water in just a decade. The forests in the eastern mountains will be systematically harvested, its profits shared. New industries and industry up-grades are afoot.

-John Paul Maynard