Friday, August 26, 2011

Libya Free After 43 Years

Libyans Take Over Their Country

The capture of Qaddafi's compound at Bab al Azziyah by rebels and its subsequent occupation by the people of Tripoli on August 24 means that some mopping up operations are required, so people are happy but fearful. In the east, in Cyrenaica, rebels pushed into Al Brega and passed Ras Lanuf on August 24. By the 26th, they are likely passing Al Sidr, closing in on Sirte. Meanwhile, preparations for a new government, a new society, are intensifying.

But where is the mad dog of Tripoli? As long as the Qaddafis are loose, they will serve as a potential lightning rod for loyalists. Those loyalists are loose in Tripoli, but some ten thousand rebel democratic fighters are now converging: the hunt begins. Where is Qaddafi?

He most likely hiding in a private compound, one owned by one of his military commanders. He might be able to make it south to Sabha, but that would mean traveling off road, since the rebels control the road to the Fezzan. Once in the south, he would be free of NATO aircraft and drones. It was in Sabha that Mu'ammar Qaddafi committed himself to 'revolutionary action.' From there he could make his way deeper into the Sahara.

On the 25th the Libyan Transitional National Council announced that free passage would be given Qaddafi if he just turned himself in. But the Mad Dog of the Magreb is too wily to fall for that. He'll die in Libya, he and his son, Saif.

For over four months there were some one dozen assassination and intel teams operating in Tripoli. Using fast autos, these undercover warriors pursued leads developed through their neighborhood contacts, or from NATO. Now some three thousand rebel fighters are searching for him. Every structure in the city will be thoroughly searched. But Qaddafi could still disappear. Even by submarine.

The Libyan people are free to pick up the pieces and attempt to erect a just, democratic government. Law and order will need to imposed. All the various long-suppressed tribal and sectarian organs will come out, already organized. But the power remains with the people – the secular, educated people who simply want justice, some chance to make it money-wise, and to choose their own leaders.

Some Arab theorists want an American-style democracy, others want a European style. The first features a strong president, and a clear triangle of powers as a break to executive power. The European style is of course the parliamentary, with a prime minister who may be appointed, or elected.

Our recommendation is neither of these are right for Libya. There does not have to be single leaders: the people can govern themselves and will rejoice in doing so after nearly a half century of gruesome oppression. Another weakness in both European and American democracies is policy paralysis. Parliaments can be inflammatory, while a 3-part government of the Americans, is too often dead-locked.

Qaddafi prevented social institutions to arise naturally, but imposed his own courts, training institutes, banks, and financial agencies, tribal soirees, and private officer corps. Now these are all down. Some organs might be revived and altered, but in other cases, entirely new institutions have to be founded and funded.

China and Russia are using their chairs on the UN Security Council, to block the distribution to the THC of Libyan funds overseas. South Africa also refused to release gold to the rebels. Qaddafi of course is a legend in Africa, greatly hated by some, but welcomed by others. But only because he had money. Now Mu'ammar has a bundle of Libyan bank notes and foreign currencies, but that would last him a week. He will have to depend on his properties in Africa ikf he wants to keep living in style. I think the International Criminal Court will catch up with him. For Mu'ammar was a Jekyl/Hide split personality. For 42 years he ruled like a tyrranical king, by force, of course.

One might hope that Qaddafi left some apt advice in his little Green Book. But he remained ignorant of the actual Muslim legal texts. He never trusted anyone mentioning Islam. He locked up (or killed) thousands of Islamists. This was highly catastrophic and ironical, because the Libyan jurists follow the Maliki school of jurisprudence, which is arguably, the most liberal of the four Sunni schools (mazhab). Malik ibn 'Anas should be something of a patron saint, able to apply Islamic land law to create new institutions and provide women with a measure of ownership of houses.

One thing the Libyan architects could do is to study the Al Muwatta, by Malik ibn 'Anas, for directions of how to create local welfare institutions; re-instate the commons; collect taxes and create political forums.

The Arabs are much more into politics than people in the West, speaking generally. They have no problem meeting and talking about things. The tendency is to trust others, or take them on face value, but real critical thinking is required to meet any of the rebels' objectives.

The Libyan civil war last a half year. Over that time, the people in the coastal cities suffered grievous lack of electricity, communications and food and water: all scarce. Now the nascent authorities must bring in all that is needed to get the country up running again.

But before that can happen, the Mad Dog of Libya must be hunted down.


Syria – Russia blocks UN transfer of the Syrian case to the International Criminal court. Bashar and his crew are conducting continuous operations against pockets of resistance in Homs, Hama, Dayr Az Zaur, Latakia, Dera'a and suburbs in Damascus.

The Syrian army is made up of Sunni conscripts, so Bashar al Assad has brought in hundreds of adviser/snipers from Iran. They are from the Al Quds brigade, basically, the Revolutionary Guards. They're a terrorist organ.

The Ba'athi masters are incredible as they murder Syrian innocents. The West want the Ba'athists out – they've lost their legitimacy. Meanwhile, Russia, China, Iran and even Turkey are making sure Bashar and his brother remain on top.

Yemen – Whispers behind the Curtain

The Saudis and the American keep Ali Abdullah in his hospital in Riyadh, leaving his people to work it out by themselves. But tensions are high. First, there is little clean water and food, no NG and little gas and diesel. Jobs can't happenm because there's not enough money to pay workers, no matter how important their work.

The revolt in Yemen stemmed from an alliance between the shibab (the youth) on the street, and the intellectuals and professionals. Now that division has opened up. This more ominous than the return of Saleh. A new government cannot be formed, unless, as the shibab demand, all the officials and officers are placed under arrest to be tried for murder. These demands are not just: many officials and officers are not corrupt or guilty. They are needed in the new government. But the shibab say no. So the rebels in Sana'a are deadlocked.

Syria – Huge demonstrations in Homs 

 took place following the end of prayers on Friday. Aug. 26. The killing, maiming and imprisonment of protesters (and soldiers who refuse to kill), is taking place, in various towns. Outside Syria, in Istanbul, Syrian rebel reps are trying to figure out how they will fight the Ba'athists, and what kind government would be best for post-Assad Syria.

European parliaments work only when they are independent of the king or prime minister. It not clear which if any of the Arab states can create a two-part freedom, a balance, through which a parliament might legislate and a PM or president might veto. The American tri-partite system on the other hand is too balanced. Leading to gridlock and ultimately, to a failure to adapt to change.

Can the Arabs come up with their own multi-party system? Can new constitutions be approved? I believe the Arabs have their own traditions of democracy: the traditional access to the sheikh, voting by hands at the end of meetings, the election of the chief, in peace and in times of war.

Certainly Muhammad had an interest in democracy. “Government must consult with the people at every step.” He sanctified dissent when it is over errors in policy and practice: “My people will never agree on an error.”

Qatar – Riding the wave behind the scenes

It turns out that Qatar is playing a formative role all through the Arab Spring. Al Jazeerah media group is now just one of many independent media organs in the Arab world.

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