Egypt - The first Anniversary of the Revolution of January 25
One year after Egypt's revolution, Egyptians are still trying to sort things out. Just a month ago we saw more demonstrations in Tahrir Square against the military's assumption of power. In November and December 2011 there occurred other demonstrations: by the minority Coptic community, and by women.
Both fear the emergence of the Muslim Brotherhood (and Salafis). Outside observers are right to be concerned, as well. The MB and the Salafis see everything western, every idea, every tool, every medicine, as evil. All non-Muslims were kafirs – infidels who can be killed with God's sanction.
Though relatively small in number, the Islamists intend to force all others to believe and think as they do. They err in saying, as they once did, that democracy and Islam are incompatible. Our readers are familiar why Islam and democracy can get along just fine.
The Egyptian armed forces and intelligence services present a huge obstacle to prospective democrats in Egypt. Field Marshal Hussein Tantawi 'the Sphinx' says very little. During the summer of 2011, we received reports that the army and the Muslim Brotherhood have reached a power-sharing agreement. In December, we heard that this alliance has soured.
On the 14th of January, Muhammad El Baradei ends his campaign for president. He did not feel the coming elections will be free and fair. Originally, El Baradei had brokered an agreement, an alliance, between his party and the Muslim Brotherhood.
But that soured in November, for reasons not known.
Yemen – Parliament Confused
Ali Abdullah Saleh is seeking immunity from prosecution for himself, his close associates, and his family. Such an immunity has to be voted into law by the Yemeni parliament. But on January 16, the parliament postponed the vote.
The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) has long advised immunity and elections. But in their peace agreement(s) they did not specify which comes first: elections? Or immunity?
At present there is a stand-off between Saleh and his Revolutionary Guards, and dissident soldiers controlled by the Hashid tribe, led by dissident Maj. Gen. Ali Mohsen. Back in June, Hashid warriors attacked the presidential palace, wounding Ali Abdullah Saleh.
With the revolution losing its force, thanks to incompatible differences inside the opposition, gangs of armed thugs are raising hell in Taiz and elsewhere. Aden, too, has recently seen kidnapping and robbery. Often the soldiers and police observe the shake-downs, but do nothing. The Southern Movement cannot control its clandestine terror cells. On Jan. 15, there was a protest demonstration of police and soldiers – demanding plots of land on which they might construct their houses.
Al Qaeda has been scene walking freely in Aden and in some eastern cities. They drive Toyota Hi-Lux trucks. One leader is Tariq Al Dhahab, who commands some 400-500 warriors.
Syria - Arab League ponders intervention
The peaceful protests in Syria degenerated into a civil war as the regime used brutal force indiscriminately. After some 10 months, some 6,000 have been killed. There is another 30,000 wounded and some 12,000 protesters still in prison. Many of those will not survive.
Many believe the conflict has turned into a religious war, between the dispossessed Sunni majority, and the ruling Shi'i Allewite regime of Bashar Al Asad. The widening of the Sunni/Shi'a rift has prompted changes in the constellation of regional power.
Turkey and Iran are watching themselves become enemies. The Iranians want to send the Syrian regimes arms and ammo, but its trucks are intercepted transiting Turkey. The Saudis and other Gulf states all favor the protesters – because they are Sunnis.
The Arab League did not finesse its visit to Syria. But in the coming year, we see the League sorting out its various potential roles – as brokers of the peace.
The problem is that over 6,000 have been killed, prompting revenge operations. The Syrian opposition will not cease its demonstrating.
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