Nasser's Legacy Hard to Reverse
Back in 1952, the Free Officers were just a small slice of political life in Egypt. They were surrounded by leftists, Islamists, Wafd party activists, businessmen big and small, and a monarchy backed by its creditors, Britain and France, with its armed forces and intelligence apparats. Nasser, Sadat, Amr, et al, should not have survived. Only because the Free Officers cultivated ties with officers in the army was Nasser able to do what he did.
Most analysts looking at Egypt see a terrible legacy: the Free Officers chased out a thriving international community in Cairo and Alexandria, making life as dull as it was unjust. Socialism took hold even as the Communists were liquidated, which meant high taxes. But most crucially, the armed forces were continually favored. The army came to run things. So today Egypt is back where it was in the early 1960s, where power has devolved upon the army, specifically the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces (SCAF) led by Hussein Tantawi, the 'Sphinx.'
Over recent weeks there has been a number of demonstrations against army rule, to which the army responded with violence. These recent demonstrations have opened wounds. Behind each demonstrator are other activists, some of whom are applying pressure on the security services.
Nasser's legacy spread from Egypt to Yemen, Syria, Libya, the Sudan, and Algeria. In each case, the security state still holds power and is not giving any up.
Military forces are generally wasting, unproductive assets. But Nasser built on earlier traditions, going back to Muhammad Ali, even to the Mameluke period, by which the armed forces during peacetime, develop industries, courts, and schools.
Transfer of power to a civilian, democratic government may be in the cards, but only through a step-by-step process. A new constitution has to be drawn up and promulgated. A president has to be elected. In the next weeks, parliamentary elections (for the lower house) will be concluded.
In Yemen, all sides are dead-locked, waiting for Ali Abdullah Saleh to leave the country. He said he would do so two weeks back, but once again he has reneged on an agreement. Saleh wants all his people to have some protection short of emigration. The opposition wants all the regime's privileged charged with crimes. They want to take control of the armed forces and the security forces. This wish-list is too much, too fast. A step-by-step process will soon commence, we hope.
In Syria, the officers are also on top. The Syrian regime consists of more than a million people, most security officers. Mahir Al Asad, Bashar's brother, is just one of some one hundred and fifty officers in the various services who are related to Bashar, or share his religion, and who do his bidding.
The Arab League has just finished two weeks of on-the-ground investigations. Led by Lt. Gen. Al Dabi from the Sudan, the League appeared to be co-opted by fascist killers. “We are not here to broker peace but to find out what is happening.”
In the Gulf, tensions are high as Iran warns the US not to deploy its carrier battle group into the Gulf. Meanwhile, the group; rescues 7 Iranian fishermen who had been held captive for two months by 15 Somali pirates.
Iraq experiences a surge in terror, with bombs killing some 80 people, mostly Shi'a. Now al Qaida is leading the Sunnis in a violent response. How else can they deal with the Shi'a government of Nur Al Maleki? He thought it was just fine to join with the dim mullah Sadr, excluding Sunnis (and Christians) from effective power. The government cannot even generate big money from its big oil deposits.
The author is the moderator/instructor for the online discussion group; 'Islamic Civilization,' hosted by the graduate alumni association, Harvard University.
No comments:
Post a Comment