New Unrest in Egypt and Syria

Egypt - The second phase of parliamentary elections give 30% of votes to the Muslim Brotherhood, and 30% for Salafi candidates. We are surprised that the figures are so low. These elections are taking place in Suez, Ismailiyya, and in delta and Nile towns, areas supposedly more conservative than Cairo and Alexandria. 

Demonstration in Tahrir Square became violent as army units block access to government buildings. Young men are demonstrating against the usurpation of power and privilege by former-regime officers and officials. Some 20 have been killed from the 5th to 19th of Dec. 2011. Egyptian officers displayed their opinion of the Al Jazirah media channels by throwing its equipment out high floors overlooking the Square.

Egypt is a religious nation; naturally they see Islam as the most important part of their culture. The poor voted for the Salafists. Since they never received any benefits, they opt for the Islamists in their neighborhood. Salafis in Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the UAE have flooded Egypt with money, some 500 million, and this has permitted the Salafis and MB to become professional organizations, paying small pensions to the destitute.(If you've been poor, you know the necessity of a little bit of money.)

 Syria - On Dec. 19 we hear that the Syrian government has accepted the UN and Arab League's peace plan. We hear that Arab League mediators are now entering Syria. The idea is now to work for a ceasefire: the army and police cease and desist, while the opposition must refrain from violent demonstrations. 

Twenty seven were killed on the 16th of Dec. Syrian army. Needless to say, police can no longer go where they want: dissident soldiers are trying to protect the crowds. The recent fighting has been most intense in Dara'a and in Hama: these are people seeking revenge for losses of family and friends.

The Arab League is constantly trying to find workable solutions. Just today, Dec. 19^th, we hear that the Al Asad regime has accepted League mediators. The UN threatens to refer Syria may to the International Criminal Control. On the 15th, Iraqi peace negotiators arrived in Damascus. On the 17th of Dec., they meet with the opposition. Iraq may have a special role, due to its Shi'i leadership. But we expect it will side with the Al Asad regime, just as Iran does, and for the same reason (sectarian ideololgy, all three are ruled by Shi'a).
 
Iraq - The US ends its decade-long occupation on December 15, 2011. The majority of Iraqis do not view the American invasion and occupation in a positive way. True, Saddam was killing an average 30 to 50 thousand Iraqis each year; but the US had to leave because Iraq's Shi'i government refused to grant US personnel freedom from prosecution by Iraqi courts.  

The Iraqi government has its own tussle with the Islamic Republic: bombs have killed over a hundred Shi'a pilgrims in the past ten days. An Iranian cleric is put in office in Najaf. Mullah Sadr's Irani-trained hit squads are now targeting US foreign service personnel, and contractors. 

More valuable to the US than bases, is the friendship and cooperation between American and Iraqi governments, providing: the opening of oil wells, firepower (F-16s) and in intelligence. The government of Nur al Maliki is in bed with the Sadr entity. Sadr owes everything to the American liberation of Iraq, yet is a dim anti-American ideologue, a puppet being played by Irani clerics. 

There are some wild, lawless areas, and gangs operating out of revenge. Kirkuk is shared by Kurds, Sunni Arabs, Turcomen, and some Christians. The suburb of Doura, south of Baghdad, has not healed. Nor have Falluja and parts of Mosul. Najaf, Karballa, and Sadr City in Baghdad are the Shi'a areas, also subject to suicide bombers. 

Yemen - After ten months of demonstrations, and shoot-outs between loyal and dissident army units, peace seems to have descended on Sana'a, al Hudayda, Aden. Taiz is also quiet, though we think the army will continue to battle Islamists, including al Qaida.

Yemen has been a humanitarian disaster zone even before the Arab Spring. Shortages of food, water, fuel, medicine, and jobs have rendered life difficult. Basically, the country is now ruled by the tribes. These tribesmen will play with Islamist militants, but will collapse them, turn them in, when they get a better offer. The assassination of Anwar Awlaki and other Al Qaida leaders was made possible because the tribes received big payments beneath the table. Meanwhile, in Sana'a another kind of stand-off is looming. Saleh has resigned the presidency but keeps his son and other relatives and friends in various positions and in businesses. How the Saleh dynasty will unravel itself, pick up and go, has yet to be seen.