AN INTENSIFICATION OF THE VIOLENCE
The winter solstice, like September's equinox, features an acceleration of events, each fraught with implications for the future. Will the protesters succeed in bringing down the army? Syria, Egypt and Iraq are in extremis, with people slowly starving. But Yemen, peace has finally arrived.
Syria -
An unfortunate increase in violence has troubled Syrians of all stripes. The regime is convinced it is dealing with 'terrorists' and now, al Qaidah. Explosions rock Damascus: some forty regime personnel were killed when suicide bombers penetrated a government secret police 'intelligence' HQ.
Since the attack was concurrent with the arrival of the first Arab League monitors, many believed the Syrian regime staged the attack. But would the regime kill 40 of its own intelligence staff?
Syrian intelligence in Lebanon claim to have tracked the movement of arms and Al Qaidah personnel from Lebanon into Syria. Readers of this blog are familiar with this point of vulnerability – Lebanon. We have often wondered how many weapons and ammo and Sunni MB agents have infiltrated Syria from Lebanon.
In any case, some 28 demonstrators were shot dead on the 22nd . There were some 200 demonstrations in Syria on the 24rd . Earlier, on the 20th, some 80 were killed during a regime assault on the town of Idlib. In short, an increase in violence.
It is impossible to know for sure, but it seems the attack was not by al Qaida or the Muslim Brotherhood, but by dissident soldiers in conjunction with civilians bent of revenge for the murder of their loved ones. That's our bet. We could be wrong, but I doubt the operatives coming into Syria, could stage a sophisticated attack on a well-defended police/air force HQ, with two days of planning.
The US State Department followed European states in declaring that Bashar al Asad and his henchmen, have lost all legitimacy. Syrian regime officials cannot travel or access money stashed overseas. Switzerland, for example, has frozen some $55 million in accounts held by Al Asad (Dec.22).
The Arab League has matured to the point that it can move against Arab rulers bent of genocide. We are most pleasantly surprised. Now League officials are deploying throughout Syria. Their presence amongst the civilians demonstrating, will prevent the police from firing blindly into the crowd. If Arab League mediators are killed by regime forces, the League will isolate the regime even more.
Will the regime run out of money to pay its agents? The regime will use force to keep many police, intel and army personnl working. But how long can this go on? Many regions are already destitute: the economy is collapsing. We believe the Syrian regime will bow to Arab League injunctions, hoping to evade sanctions. But too much blood has been shed. The UN said today that some 5,000 have died, shot by security personnel. Obviously, people are not going down: some 700 of those killed were members of the army or police.
The Syrian regime's talk against terrorism is not credible. Syria sent thousands of Islamist militants across the border into Iraq, to kill coalition forces. That's why the West wants him out.
Egypt -
Tahrir Square has been occupied for nearly three weeks. Some 70 were killed outright by the army. On the 21st, women held a demonstration in the Square, protesting army violence. The army did not touch them, but then again, the women did not march on government offices.
The protest is about the assumption of power by the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces, led by Marshall Hussein Tantawi 'the Sphinx.' This raises the complicated issue of the army's role. Jokingly, Egyptians say 'the army has deployed to the coasts' referring to the many hotels and villas dedicated just to army officers. Over the past 20 years, some effort has been made to sell army businesses and industries to the private sector.
Elections have brought the Islamists into power, though they played little role in the revolution of the 28th of January. How will they compromise with secular democrats? With the technocrats?
Yemen -
On the 24th of Dec. violence breaks out when demonstrators marched on the presidential palace in Sana'a. They were met with elite Revolutionary Guards behind barricades. Tear gas and rubber bullets apparently did not stop the crowd of some 12,000., for the soldeirs fired into the crowd, killing at least nine. Note: many of the marchers had walked for 4 days from Ta'iz, where some weeks ago, the Guard killed some 25.
This raises the question of discipline. The uncompromising attitudes of the opposition were useful last year, but unnecessary when Saleh agreed to step down. That was back in late February 2011.
M ore recently, on November 23, president Ali Abdullah Saleh formally resigned, transferring power to his deputy, Abdu Rabbo Mansur Hadi. Hadi is trying to lead a transitional government but of course lacks credibility amongst the opposition. This too is too harsh. Why cannot Yemenis talk it out?
The opposition's Prime Minister designate is Muhammad Salem Basundwa, a former minister, but chiefly a newspaper man. He's from Aden and was active in the way of freedom, since the British ruled. The British imprisoned him. So he has the revolutionary credentials required.
In some places in Sana'a, it looks like peace has broken out, with citizens and police removing the many barricades in Sana'a's streets. But...after eleven months of struggle, the revolution in Yemen is not over. Peace depends in part on the Al Ahmer family, tribal leaders, who face the wrath of Saleh loyalists for nearly killing the president last summer. The opposition too, is still divided: "You can cut us in many ways: secular/sectarian, socialists/capitalists, educated/uneducated, Sunni/Shi'a, tribe by tribe, old and young. It is this last which is most important. For the youth are organized, if not by the mullahs and imams, then by electronic culture. The youth, the shebab, may not make policies and sign agreements, but, with their cell phones and social media, they are the ones who move the people, who tactically organize and direct the demonstrations. They are linked nationally.
The demonstrators feel that Saleh's resignation will not bring down the corrupt regime. Economic realities dictate another, more efficient and less corrupt government. For example, Sana'a only gets an hour of electricity a day. How could that be? Why is not the infrastructure being used? What happened to the over $13 billion in aid Yemen received since 2000?
We expect a huge demonstration on Christmas Day. In fact, there will be protests in some 13 provinces. Just last summer, we saw the tribes emerge as de facto rulers of their regions. But now we see all the provinces unite to bash a government already making steps to democracy.
Iraq -
We include Iraq though it has not had an 'Arab Spring.' Instead, the Americans pulled out this week. Is that freedom? With the withdrawal of the Americans, the way is wide open for the terrorists to crawl out of their holes. Hence the 16 bombs that went off on the Dec. 22nd, 2011. Since the targets were Shi'a, we can only assume that Al Qaida is back in business.
The situation is slowly degenerating. Many vital issues cannot be settle, and policies implemented. The oil industry is languishing because the Kurds, the Shi'a and the Sunnis cannot agree on who owns what or how Iraq's huge resources are to be managed and apportioned. Other sectors, like agriculture and industry, also suffer, partly due to the lack of electrical power.
We've received the first reports that Iran is moving over to a more direct attempt to control Iraq.
The author is, amongst other things, the moderator/instructor for the online discussion group on Islamic civilization, hosted by the Graduate Alumni Association, Harvard University
No comments:
Post a Comment