The Arab League Visits Syria

Syria -

Demonstrations break out all over Syria after Friday prayers, today, 30 Dec.

Violence dropped for one day as the monitors from the Arab League finally deploy. But the next day the Syrian regime continued with its murderous tactics, deploying armor against neighborhoods in Homs, Hama, Dera'a, Idlib and against a huge demonstration, estimated at 250,000, in Damascus. Some 40 were killed in these cities on the 28^th of Dec.. On the 30^th, another 40 were killed as the army opened fire on crowds leaving Friday prayers.

The League needs a little time to gather facts. We expect their first report in early January. So far, the League seems to be allied with the regime of Bashar al Asad, traveling inside army communications. The head of the League monitors is Lt. Gen. Mustafa ad Dabi. He's from the Sudan where he was active in the suppression of the rebels in Darfur.

If the League equivocates, sides with the regime and its murderous thugs, it will be seen through, open for all to see. At the same time, we do expect the League to voice support for all factions (including pro-regime civilians).

Receiving reports from Homs, we wonder how the League can even get into neighborhoods like Bab al Amr, so great is the destruction. Life in Homs has become very basic: a search for water, a little food, heat. People have endured some nine months of cruel suppression. Almost everyone has lost a friend or family member.

Police and intel (mukhabarat) units cannot move freely into radicalized neighborhoods, without armor and artillery of the Syrian army. That military is over-stretched: intervention is largely temporary: the armor and infantry visit and revisit certain villages and neighborhoods. Many villages and neighborhoods never see them at all. They do raid city blocks and villages, usually after specific fighters and activists, but end up arresting innocent men in a dragnet.

Over the past nine months, the protests have evolved into a national movement. Today, some 250 demonstrations took place, in virtually all towns and cities. The protesters are aiming to occupy main traffic circles, monuments and parks.

The presence of the Arab League monitors has induced larger demonstrations. The huge one today in Damascus may have topped a quarter of a million. The monitors are being told by the regime that their presence is triggering unrest, just as journalists do. 'Playing to the camera.'

But it is entirely proper that the presence of monitors leads to more and bigger demonstrations. The Syrian opposition is so low, so poor, so hard-pressed, that any attention from outside, is seen as help. The Arab League will likely not be able to give much help. To continue the task, the League will require several hundred monitors.

But can it broker a deal with Asad? A ceasefire? Release of prisoners?

Some 140 have been killed during the 50 hours since the AL monitors arrived. Yesterday a video showed orange-vested AL monitors running for their lives with protesters, as Syrian shabeeba thugs fired into the crowd. The regime does not seem to be in control of its own forces. Genocide is chaos.

Egypt -

On the 29^th of Dec., the Egyptian secret policed launched raids against several pro-democracy groups, NGOs, two of which were official American – the Democrat and Republican institutes of democracy). On the 30^th the Egyptian government finally censured the police, telling the NGOs (and the US ambassador) that they need not worry about such raids in the future. All materials taken by the security police were to be returned. But then, on New Year's Day, the Egyptian government reversed itself, promises disciplinary action against NGOs seeking to influence Egypt's people.

Elections are running through their last phase. Soon, attention will be focused on drafting a constitution. We'll see that in the spring of 2012. In the summer there will be elections for prime minister.

Valid candidates include Muhammad al Baradei and Amr Musa – the former head of the Arab League. But much can happen till then.

Small groups of demonstrators have been occupying Tahrir Square for nearly a month. They want to disband the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces, render the army to civilian control. Naturally, they drew the army's wrath. Some 70 have been killed in Tahrir Square since Dec. 8.

The parliamentary elections show the Islamists winning some 50%. That includes the Muslim Brotherhood, the Salafis and various Sufi groups. The army is hoping the MB will discipline those Salafis bent on action. The problem is that the MB cannot discipline itself, that is, it cannot stop small cells from going virile. The problem is that the MB's charter and its literature, sees everything Western as against Islam. This stance was a cheap shot that successfully usurped the genuine Islamic reform tradition, starting with Jalal ad-Din al Afghani, and going through Mohammed Abdou. To them, the obstacle was the clergy's refusal to educate itself and accept Western implements and ideas.

The West has no choice but to deal with Muslim political parties. Here we see the tragic weakness, a kind of willful ignorance, that basically phases out 'the other, the enemy.' Because so few Americans know the Qur'an and the original texts of Islamic law, there is not much hope for understanding, intelligent dialogue.

The Islamists do not help themselves by saying stupid things like “Democracy is incompatible with Islam.” Our readers know how untrue that is. Traditionally, Arab Bedouin elected their sheikhs. The first four rashidun caliphs were elected (by the ulema, most likely on Muhammad's order). It is not unusual to see meetings end with a show of hands.

Yemen -

Unrest simmers in Sana'a and elsewhere. Ali Saleh has yet to depart, as he said he would. His destination: the USA. But just for a few days. That's what he said on the 27^th of Dec. He said he would return to Yemen and “join the opposition.” Meanwhile, the opposition wants to get him before he escapes, to try him for the many crimes of his forces.

Those forces are still controlled by Saleh's son Ahmad, and his nephew. On the other side are dissident soldiers under Gen. Mohsin. The elite is fissiparous, the army split. Power remains with the tribes.

Meanwhile, the economy has contracted to street level: little water, food, fuel, medicine, ammo. The international community by now should have arranged for supply ships unloading at al Hudaydah on the Red Sea.

Israel -

Israel is a Muslim country, Arab, so we watch her politics: the great backlash against ultra-orthodox Jews who split on and harass women. In Brooklyn, NY, a transportation country owned by orthodox segregates men and women in different buses and vans, or puts women in the back of buses and vans, thereby violating US law. The Americans are more friendly with the religious fundamentalists than is the Israeli populace. The USA is of course a player (not an arbiter) in the Middle East.

Palestine -

Little information is leaking about the proposed merger of Hamas and the Palestinian Authority. This has been tried on at least four occasions. In every case, the clergy in Hamas overreached themselves, demanding positions for which they are not qualified.

Iraq -

The last US soldier left and 12 hours later there were a string of 13 bombs directed at government (Shi'a) targets, including pilgrims. Deep fissures open up between Sunni and Shi'a. Iran is readying itself to step in, 'clandestinely'. Already there is a low-intensity war underway.

President Nur al Maliki is at fault for falling under the influence of the dim Sadr entity, an obvious Iranian stooge. He would not have won if he had  chosen otherwise. Maliki is going after the Sunni Vice President Hashemi, who sought sanctuary with the Kurds in the north. Hashemi is accused of links with Sunni death squads. Those squads bear the hallmarks of al Qaida, so I doubt Hashemi is connected.

Iran -

Arabs live in Iran, in Khuzistan. Western Europe and North America are pushing through a blockade of Iran, preventing its sale of oil and gas. The Iranians vow to close the Straits. The US replies that this will mean war. There is a 10% chance that Iran will dump mines into the Strait. The US has special helicopters that can explode these mines from the air. But if Irani revolutionary guards deploy in small boats with shoulder-fired missiles, those helicopters cannot operate.

Iran possesses some eight frigate/destroyers and four small modern diesel submarines. It is not clear that US ships and installations can shoot down Irani cruise missiles. Iran has test-fired two of these just in the past 40 hours.

Any such tussle will give the Israelis the chance to conduct a bombing campaign against nuclear facilities in Natanz, Qom and elsewhere.

Iran may opt for conflict, to heal the rifts tearing apart the government. The world price for oil will likely double, impoverishing Iran, but the damage would redound onto the Americans. Or so they think.

Saudi Arabia -

The day after the Iranians said they would stop traffic in the Straits of Hormuz, the White House announced the $82 billion sale of F-16Ds with upgrades for 70 other F-16s, to the Kingdom. The Gulf Cooperation Council announced that they can make up for lost oil due to Irani aggression. The world financial and commodity markets were lulled back to sleep.

The author is, amongst other things, the moderator/instructor for the online discussion group 'Islamic Civilization' hosted by the Graduate Alumni Association, Harvard University.