Revolutionaries Outflanked by Tribe and Sect

Revolutionaries Outflanked by Tribe and Sect

Elections in Tunisia and Egypt gives influence on the highest levels to long-suppressed Muslim parties – Al Ikhwan al Muslimiyya (Muslim Brotherhood or MB), the Salafis and some eight other groups, mostly Sufis like the followers of Niffari, plus assorted Naqshbandiyya, Qaderi, Tijaniyya, Amediyya, and Coptic-Muslim associations.

“My people do not agree on an error” said Muhammad Qureyshi, rendering dissent as necessary and sacred. The Christian injunction to love one's enemies is not just because it is the human thing to do, but because the enemy often has what I need and want, which is self-knowledge. Just because I am willfully ignorant of my opposition, of how he thinks, does not infer that my enemy is ignorant of my character, self-deceits, conceits and aspirations.

There's no theory of war in the Qur'an and terrorism is described, step by step, from the initial complaint and defamation, to the planning, executing and the consequences which follow, in this world and the next.

If a few MB, Salafi and Sufi Muslim leaders are given seats in the parliament, the cabinet, and the intel police, this will effectively ward off mass Islamist resurgence. The MB cannot flex its muscle without drawing opposition from other Muslim groups, not to mention the educated secular folk.

These moderate Islamists of North Africa know they do not possess the skills, the science, required to manage and grow large modern societies. But scientists in the West are too quick to write off (or defame) Islamic civilization.

Muslims the world over suffer the indignation of cruel, inhuman laws that wormed their way into the shari'a. Those are: stoning, the cutting off of hands, the suppression of women, the treatment of non-Muslims, terror and jihad.

In this world, the best and the worst often go back-to-back. The Catholic church performs humanizing functions for the poor, the sick, the elderly, the disabled. But it also launched and prosecuted some 63 genocidal wars, plus the Inquisition (which has been revived under the German pope.)

The same is with large Muslim organs. They do great work locally, providing services, services the government cannot give (because the money went to debt servicing, the armed forces and to a corrupt elite).

Women have been providing services all along so they too deserve a place in the cabinet and in parliament. We hope at least one woman will be on the parliamentary committee charged with writing a new constitution. There should be three.

If we observe Islamists trying to deprive women of their rights, then we know that some are bent on engineering society using dubious hadith and highly select verses from the Qur'an. Another bad sign would be the teaching of hate in North Africa medressehs, as wood sabotage and terror. (Note: the vital NG pipeline from Egypt to Israel has been bombed five times).

Let us look more closely at last week's election returns.

Egypt -

The Nov. 28 elections were just part one in a graduated sequence of balloting. But the strong showing of Islamists in Cairo and Alexandria will only increase as up-coming elections move from province to province. In November, the MB-sourced Freedom and Justice party took 36.6% of the vote, while the Salafists took an astounding 24.4%. This upset was made possible because of a grass-roots organization, funded by money from Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the UAE. As for the secular Egyptian Bloc, they took some 1.29 votes out of 9.7 million ballots cast.

The original revolutionaries, secular, educated youth, were unable to reach the many more poor and uneducated. The new Wafd party took fewer than one million votes. The modern moderate Islamist party Al Wasit also received less than one million.

November's elections covered only 9 of Egypt's 27 governates. The up-coming elections on Dec.14-15 will cover municipalities in lower Egypt, while the elections of Jan.3-4 2012, will involve districts in the center and south of the country.

 Tunisa -

November elections were free and fair, and we should not be too surprised that Islamists win seats in parliament. The moderate Islamist party, Ennahda, has ruled tolerantly on a number of key issues, like rights for women. But the Salafist party, the Ansar Ash Shari'ah (AST), has ruled most intolerantly, advocating violent jihad, even persecution  of non-Muslims, and that includes secular educated Tunisians.

The Ansar ash Sharia'a was established last April, as many Tunisian jihadists returned home. Some had served in Iraq and Afghanistan, and the Salafis want government to take care of these jihadists. AST sides with the Taliban and with Al Qaida. They follow the extremist sheikh Al Kitab al Idrisi, and are based in the Bab al Khadra neighborhood of Tunis.

The Salafis in Tunisia are not as established as the Salafis in Egypt and Lebanon. and the Gulf. We fully expect the An Anahda to monitor and restrain the more militant, media-savvy Salafis.

Many secular folk in and outside Tunisia lament the results of democratic elections - the accession of Islamists. But democracy is a path to be followed: the ideologues  become responsible when elected. If not, they're ridiculed and dismissed. The Qur'an contains no theory of or call for war. It does not talk of holy war, and of course it condemns 'mischief in the earth.'  It is certainly incorrect to say that Muahaamad at Mecca was npot democratic. The first four rashidun calipyhs were elected (by the ulema) and Muhammad told them to handle any succession issues that way.

There is a real divide between the Bedouin and the urban-based Salafists. The Bedouin elect their sheikhs, and they are not driven by some one-line passage in the scriptures. The Salafis and Islamiksts in general are said to represent the countryside, but that's not quite how it is. The small farmers and the bazaar are poor, but put their faith is the impartial forces of the market.

It is very embarrassing to talk with Islamists because very few know their own codes (fiqh, shari'a) and even fewer have ever studied their faith using the techniques of modern physical and psychological sciences.  How many are qualified for public office? In any case, the people are not going to let the politics of symbolic appeal trump what needs to be done, practically.

Yemen -

A new interim government under Abdul Rahman Al Mansur al Qadi is sworn in on Sat. Ddec.10, but this splits the protesters. Many think the regime will not give up control, and that the corrupt elite will escape trial. Other protesters want the protests to end so the economy can be rescued. Both the tribes and the Islamists are now players. Yet chaos reigns, and we expect further outbursts of fighting. The new government must immediately bring dissident army units under control. The army needs be united, and this may be difficult.

Even though Ali Saleh resigns, flying to Riyadh (Dec.3), fighting breaks out in Taizz between loyal and insurgent army forces. Some 50 are killed, from Dec.4 to Dec. 9, 2011. Tribes and sects are vying for power. Violence in Sana'a as well, involving Revolutionary Guards under the command of Ahmed Saleh, fighting dissident army units led by Gen, Ali Mohsen.

Yemen is facing a debilitating crisis, with shortages of NG, gasoline, diesel, food, medicines, water. The port of Al Hudayda should have five big freighters and two tankers (NG, jet, and auto fuels), if the international community is responding as it should, meeting the Yemenis' requirements.

One reason Saleh left Yemen is because he leaves his own family and friends in the lurch. They'll be rolled back. If and when a new government takes office, the borders will be closed and the corrupt will be imprisoned. Much effort is being made to spare former Saleh staffers and technocrats from the ignominy of genocide against one own people.

Our readers know Yemen as being remarkably divided for such a small place. The Red Sea and Arabian Sea coasts have evolved quite different cultures. The inner towns of the Hadramaut valley, exhibit a different culture than, say, the Zaydi Shi'a of northern As Sa'ada. And we should not forget Socotra, one of the strangest places on earth, with some 600 indigenous species. The Dahlak archipelago is also weird.

The Yemeni opposition is highly diverse, as diverse as is the country. The secular intellectuals who organized the revolt remain in alliance with the shebab, the youth with the electronic communication devices, who directed the movement of protesters. Over the past eleven months, all the elements, from tribes to truck drivers, from university students to housewives, from mullahs to tribal chiefs, have had ample time to talk through differences and to evolve, in waiting, an effective new government. But the Islamists are pushing for more.

Yemen's army is a recipient of funds from Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Britain and the USA. At the moment, Revolutionary Guards keep the protesters from occupying government buildings. The resistance paradoxically does not like or even recognize, Ali Abdullah Saleh's resignation. They want to try him for capital crimes.

Some 150 children have been slain in the course of this conflict.

The anti-Saleh movement does not accept the GCC deal.

Syria -

Today, on Friday, we receive reports that some 14 were killed, seven in Homs, four in a Damascus suburb (Douma?), and three in Hama. The regime shows no sign of letting up. When the protests began some nine months ago, the various Syrian police services had the run of the towns. Then this disappeared, as citizens fought them with sticks and stones. Then the police services used army units to protect themselves from the angry populace, while they searched specific apartments for propest leaders. Now, the army has to go in first, because the opposition now contains several thousand defecting Syrian soldiers and police.

Curiously, Bashar al Asad appeared on ABC TV in the States, interviewed by Barbara Walters. He denied any responsibility for killing some 1250 Syrians. He felt sorry but had no doubts. He denied he had effective power to stop security forces. And he was sure that the opposition is led by armed terrorists.

None of these countries in Arabia are run by one man exclusively. Syria is an idea greater than any individual. The Ba'ath has been demonized by the West. Yet it represents small business owners. It also provides a minimal level of income, a way of distributing careers. Some ten years ago, economic restrictions were gradually lifted. Just two years back, we saw some big Syrian banks become independent, free to lend to whom it will. Some two million Syrians became wealthy as a result of the liberalization of traditional Syrian business acumen.

Children are dying in Homs for lack of heat and food, especially milk. From the very start, we knew the terrible economic costs of revolution. In regard to Syria and Yemen, NGOs and international agencies are afraid to go back in. So we see a collapse in the foreign aid system, just when they are needed the most.

Somalia -

Somalia is one of the 22 countries in the Arab League. It has been at war with itself for a quarter of a century. Just these past few days, we note a sudden up-tick of war. The Shebab have invested northern Mogadisiu with child fighters, while Ugandan and Kenyan troops are fighting to hold on to gains made just these past weeks.

The Kenyans are focusing of the south, Kismayu, and that pressure may have forced the Shibab back up into Mogadisciu. The Americans are involved. Using drones and choppers based on amphibious landing ships, they can intercept the highway between Mogadisciu to Kismayu. But only during the daylight hours.

Recent bombing in Northern Somalia, Puntland, was likely pirate masters warning the moderate government to back off foreign requests to move on the pirates, from land.

Sudan -

War lingers in the Sudan. Last summer saw the division of the country. The oil – the little of which might be there – lies right on the border (Abiye), and it is obvious that North and South Sudan should share the proceeds. Fighting festers in Kordufan, as Black Arab-speaking Muslims attempt to keep the Janjawid out of their homelands.

Palestine, Lebanon, Iraq -

These Arab nations are all divided within themselves, in such fundamental ways, that we do not expect an amelioration of their grievous fates. Sunni and Shi'a confront each other inside the Lebanese government, the Iraqi government and inside the Palestinian societies of Gaza, the West Bank, and East Jerusalem. In each case, there is a non-Muslim element, which may offer ways of escape from civil war.

There exist Christian, Druze and Kurdish factors who might wisely not bet on the fights in Iraq, Lebanon, Syria, and Palestine. The minorities must be protected, and they are generally, either buy the regime or by the democratic opposition.

-JPM