Change of Seasons - the Arab Autumn

تغيير الفصول -- خريف العربية

Change of Seasons: The Arab Autumn

Writing on the fall equinox, there does seem to be a turn or a change in the on-going narrative, as if a dam burst. Autumn is a time of maturation. We see in most Arab nations intense dialogue. Behind the scenes, opposing groups thrash it out: in Egypt, Tunisia, Libya, Morocco, Mauritania, Bahrain, Palestine, Jordan and Iraq - all sides are seeking effective accommodation, agreements which would allow these nations to regain profitable economies. Inside the democratic opposition are all kinds of groups – socialists, secular intellectuals, technocrats, oligopolists, professional organizations, former prisoners and mothers of the dead, various business interests (i.e. tourism), the armed forces and their officers, defecting soldiers and politicians, returning expatriates, students, pensioners, Islamists of many stripes, and, of course, the shibab – the youth on the street.

As if they planned it, some actors took the autumnal equinox as a time to act. Yemen president Ali Abdullah Saleh flew back to his country after a three-month absence for medical treatment. And as soon as  arrived home to his palace, he ordered his Revolutionary Guards to attack dissident army units in Sana'a. Unarmed protesters were caught in the cross fire, killing 25. These attacks just intensified the collective will of the protesters. Huge demonstration on the 25th.

Just five days before, the opposition staged a huge demonstration in Sana'a, which appeared to be marching on the presidential palace. This demonstration was 'secured' by dissident elements of the Yemeni armed forces led by Gen. Ali Mohsin. The Yemeni army and special forces opened fire on the crowd repeatedly, killing over 100 protesters. Now the Saleh is back, we expect negotiations to further concentrate, even though Saleh is not going to yield.

Yemen – the Yemen is a poor country, now made destitute by the political instability. The various regions – Ma'rib, Sa'ada in the north, the Tihama along the Red Sea coast, Ta'iz, Abdan in the south (Aden), the Hadramaut in the east – all are going their separate ways, power falling back onto the tribes and clans. Western powers are anxious that al Qaida does not exploit the chaos, as it has been doing in the south as well as the east. The USA has a large program underway dedicated to killing Al Qaida's leader in the Arabian peninsula, Anwar Aulaki “the American” who has tried repeatedly to kill innocent people. The tribes in the east tend to support al Qaida, largely because of Saudi pressure. They are also in opposition to the Saleh family. Note: Saleh son, Ahmed, may be acting as de facto ruler, commanding the Yemeni special forces, and army, against the brutal ambitions of the Ahmar tribe. The Houthis in the north, largely Shi'a, have also joined the opposition, providing a 'royal' prestige to the protests.

Libya - The war in Libya is not quite finished. Again on the equinox, anti-Qaddafi forces take the southern city of Sabha, in the Fezzan.  NTC democratic forces break into Sirte, on Sept.24. The rebels will rapidly seize control in the vast south, including the all-important oil fields in the Al Kufrah oasis, in the extreme southeast of Libya. It seems the Qaddafi forces refrained from sabotaging the oil wells.

That fact, if true, should alleviate some of the unseemly panic affecting the world's petroleum market. But the investors and speculators prefer the new permanent high prices for diesel and gasoline. Led by the Republicans, Congress will do nothing to help lower gasoline prices. High energy prices has ignited inflation in the USA and in Europe, two regions not all that more peaceful than the Arab nations. Both empires are threatened. He see another crippling debt-crisis by the Republican right.

Bahrain - Shi'i leaders boycott elections. Small demonstrations in Shi'i towns. It is unfortunate that the opposition got co-opted by sectarian and ethnic hotheads. The Al Khalifa family has often invited the Shi'a to participate in the political process - use elected office to win some representation. But no. These Muslims erroneously dismiss democracy. And this is sad because the educated secular people who organized and launched the (attempted) 'Pearl' revolution, have lost control.

Also on the equinox, the Palestinian authority led by Mahmud Abbas (Abu Mazen) formally requested from the UN a new enhanced status, basically as a nation. America's first Jewish president – Barack Obama – is determined to veto any such decision, even if unanimous. The Americans fail to grasp how they are being used and led along by ignorant mean biblical fundamentalists in the South, who see the Torah as a blue print for empire. But the settlements in the West Bank will always be stolen land, and hence a cause for war and terror.

Most American Jews do not want such an expanded greater Israel but, again, there are groups of rabbis and lay Jews and Christian Zionists, who are using the Republican Party to put a stop to any real negotiations involving withdrawal from the stolen land. Al Qaida tried to cause a war between Islam and America, but did not succeed until Republican blowhards, like the Perry entity, called for full prosecution of the Muslims. Now the USA finds opposition up all through the Arab world. The King of Saudi Arabia says if the US vetoes the Palestinian resolution, that will end the special relation his country has with the Americans. Oh dear, oh my, that means even higher gasoline prices?

النفاق يولد الكراهية

"Hypocrisy breeds hatred."

Iraq – Iraqis want the American occupiers out of the country, but some hesitate, aware that the civil war between Sunni and Shi'i Arabs can erupt at any time. War has been so expensive to ordinary Iraqis that Iraq's leaders must think carefully if they really want the US forces to leave. Nur al Maleki has opted to join with the Sadr entity in a bid for de facto Shi'i dominance. For obscure reasons, the two Kurdish factions side with the Shi'a and not the minority Sunni Arabs. (the Kurds have their Shi'a as well).

Jordan – The low key King, Abdallah II, started divesting monarchical powers before the Arab revolutions of 2011. Specifically, the prime minister will be elected by popular vote. Jordan is split several ways: Bedouin, Palestinain, Islamist, secular professional and government organizations, Muslims and Christians. We suspect that the opposition has been dominated by the Islamists (largely MB and Salafi who follow the crude Wahhabi interpretation), though I should hasten to add, that the 'ulema in Amman, prefer negotiations with the king, to fighting in the streets.

Syria –  was a lull in the fighting Sept.20-23. In Homs, the regime was attacking (Sept.24), trying to capture the dissident leaders and their own defecting soldiers. They had killed some 200 protesters a week for a month, till this week, when casualties fell off. The protesters have given some 2,200 killed, some four thousand missing. So regrettably, the people do not care to negotiate or go step-by-step. The Alawiis Shi'a see a direct threat to their rule and to their lives, if they ever give back power. But there might be a chance for outside negotiators, mediators, who could suggest a step-by-step program leading to a ceasefire, and eventually, election of a new government.

Under blockade, the regime will suffer but not starve. Syria still produces oil, for itself.  Much ammo has been stashed away. It also controls large farms. But the Syrian people of the cities have slipped. They often go without electrical power, and sometimes water. Food has tripled in price. So, along with Yemen, Syria is a humanitarian disaster zone.

Egypt – Popular anger targets the army and secret police. There are always some protesters in Tahrir Square (or surrounding streets), protesting the return to army rule. The coming elections will put Islamists into power. It is difficult to imagine, however, Egyptians opting for Islamist rule. The last aggressively Islamist rulers were the Shi'i Fatimids (969-1171); but Egypt's important leaders, i.e. the Ayyubids under Saladin; Muhammad Ali in the 19^th C.; even Gamal al Nasir, and Anwar Sadat fought the arrogant, ignorant, lethal Muslim Brotherhood. So that secularizing tradition will endure in Egypt. Last week's attack on the Israeli embassy threatens to so distract Egypt's  leaders and people, that reactionary 'traditionalists' can and will exploit the discontent, to win support in neighborhoods.

On Sept. 24, Field Marshall M. Hassan Tantawi 'the Sphinx' will talk for the first time ever, during the trial of Hosni Mubarak.  His testimony occurred behind closed doors.. Mubarak faces execution is they prove a link.

Saudi Arabia -  King  Abdullah bin Abdul'aziz announces that women will be able to vote in municipal elections, and run for office, Sept.25. He likely made his final decision to do this on or around the equinox.


Oman - Omani diplomats worked hard to free the two American hikers charged with espionage by Iran. The two were released on the 23rd of Sept., (the equinox).They condemn their captor for its brutality and ideology.

Turkey seized a Syrian ship full of arms and ammunition on the 22nd. of Sept. Last month, if you were listening, you would have heard Turkey's foreign minister announce the deployment of its navy into the Eastern Mediterranean. In Istanbul, Syrian dissidents continue to meet and consult, as a new type of government is hammered out.

Meanwhile, in the United States, the authorities cannot prevent a few rich men become filthy rich on the NY Mercantile Exchange in oil futures, while 200 million American become poorer.  Gasoline prices remain some 23% higher than they should be. OPEC is pumping enough oil. Such high prices for refined products is causing an acceleration of inflation. Even worse than these is the capture of the Republican party by ignorant blowhards. They are anti-science, which augurs poorly for the future. So the fall equinox signals a new round in the Republican's naked pursuit of power. Decisions made in their dark heads today will probably cause a shut down of the government in 5 days.

Also happening Sept.23-25: Vladimir Putin decides to be the president of Russia. He can serve two six-year terms, which means he will likely rule Russia through 2023. Medvedev will switch to prime minister. Most western investors have been driven off, by the corruption, by the lack of the rule of law at top, and by government taxes and harassment. One exception is Exxon Mobil which is joining the Russians in drilling for oil in the shallow Arctic waters north of the continent. The transfer to the Russians of our best drilling technology might seem justified in (eventually) providing more oil for the Americans. But that assumes that big oil companies have allegiances to their respective nations.

                                                                              -JPM

Events in Syria and Libya الأحداث في سوريا وليبيا وفلسطين والعراق

Syria – the opposition organizes a National Council

سورية -- المعارضة ينظم المجلس الوطني

Syrian infantry and tank units have been active in and around Homs, Hama, Deir Az Zair and in the suburbs of Damascus. The regime is under intense pressure to stop the killing, from the Arab League, Turkey, the EU, the USA and the UN. But the rulers of Syria see things differently. They had long been tracking dissidents, and had no experience with mass protests. In consequence they greatly over-reacted, killing hundreds.

Vengeance runs deep in these societies, but there were usually ways by which could expiate oneself, usually by paying money. Every town and village has its learned elders (ulema), ready to negotiate, reconcile. Islamic societies have long dealt with people different than themselves.

Keeping these cultural truths in mind, is the only way out of the impasse facing the Syrian people. I see no victory for either side; both have made their points. The citizens protesting are harder pressed: Syrian intel is detaining several thousands, mostly young men. The regime is also photographing protests, then using the photos to identify and prosecute protesters. Although millions work for the Syrian regime as informers, I doubt they can trace many down this way.

On the 16^th of Sept., Syrian democrats in Turkey announce the formation of a Syrian National Council. Many of its members are in Syria.

Libya – searching for the mad dog of Tripoli البحث عن الكلب المسعور طرابلس

The search for Qaddafi goes on. Readers of this report have studied the changing military situation. There exists a road along the coast, but inland, many tracks, some running parallel, others heading south into the desert. As we said, Qaddafi can escape using these roads.

Again, let us use inference to track down the Mad Dog of the Maghreb. Qaddafi was born of Bedouin parents, outside the coastal town of Sirte. He spent his high school years in Sabha, capital of the Fezzan, in the southeast of Libya, in the Sahara Desert.. Qaddafi went to high school there. In Sabha Qaddafi became a law-breaking revolutionary.

Curiously, on Sept. 14, NATO aircraft attacked Sabha for the first time, targeting radar and missile installations. Sabha is so far south that these NATO jets must be using air refueling, which means the Americans are involved.

While writing this we received a report that Libyan democratic rebels have broken in Sirte. Qaddafi's people fortified the east and southeast of their town. The rebels attacked from the west and the southwest, achieving surprise. We trust Sirte will surrender within the week, but this is the center of the Al Qaddaf tribe. Other tribes close to Qaddafi: Al Warfala, Al Migrahi

The leaders of Britain and France made personal visits to Tripoli, to show their support and discuss matters with NTC chief Mustafa Abdul Jalil and NTC prime minister Mahmoud Jibril. Everyone is searching for ways to build a new government and re-start the economy.

Some confusion attends the move south to Niger of convoys containing Qaddafi loyalists. Few newsmen even looked at their maps. There is no road going to Niger from the Fezzan: the fugitives drove from Ghat into Algeria, through Iizzili province, through the very remote village of Djennet with its air strip at Inedberried. From there they made their way along a dirt track through the Erg al Admer, to Agadez, Niger. From there some were flown to Niamey, the capital. Apparently Niger is keeping all the Qaddafi die-hards under house arrest. As for Qaddafi himself, he may be in Sabha, close to this overland escape route. He may also be in a rat hole somewhere in that navigable strip of land that runs parallel to the main coastal highway. That position would permit him to take charge of mercenaries and loyalist officers, in waging a protracted guerrilla war.

Israel/Palestine – they go together إسرائيل وفلسطين -- يذهبون معا

The US government vetoed any upgrade of status in the UN. If not, Israel would have been completely isolated. I worked in Israel, married into an Israeli family, which makes me ask: why does the USA provide cover for the annexation of the West Bank of Palestine? Even if they drive out the remaining Arabs (or take their water), that land will always remain stolen, hence a cause for war. Israel has done nothing for peace: all the peace settlements it signed at Oslo, Camp David, Rye River and with Egypt and Jordan, stipulated that Israel address the plight of Palestinian Arabs and support the creation of a Palestinian state. Israel was created by the UN (and the USA) as part of a two-state arrangement, so its legal foundation depends of recognizing a Palestinian nation.

American Republicans are generally in the camp of the Christian Zionists. They believe, like the ultra-right in Israel, that the Bible is good textbook, offering chances of expansion and dominance. It doesn't matter if innocent families are evicted from their homes, or that civilians die. Its war in Lebanon killed some 26,000 non-combatants. Its war in Gaza killed some 1,400, less that half of whom were militants.

Iraq - a wound that does not heal العراق -- جرح لا يلتئم

The third massive truck bomb exploded in Baghdad, while outside of Kerbala, some 22 Shi'a males were executed. These kind of events lead to another civil war. But most terrorists are waiting till US soldiers leave.

America – drifting off course

We noted that the arch-conservative governor of Texas Richard Perry has taken foreign policy lessons with Douglas Fife and Donald Rumsfeld: the architects of the 2003 US invasion of Iraq. That unnecessary war, plus Bush's tax cuts for the rich, sucked up America's discretionary spending. Thanks to a de-regulation of the financial industry (under R. Reagan), its massive corruption, a full $20% of America's non-land wealth went up 9in smoke. The government sunk into deep debt. It is not clear whether the nation will recover. If not, it may break up. Governor Perry is an avowed secessionist and there are active secessionist movements in some 35 states.

Why cannot the Republicans learn from men who have not made such tragic mistakes: George Schultz, Richard Lugar and John Huntsman – follow these men. Huntsman, during a recent Republican debate, said “The smart people live in Massachusetts.” No wonder this small state can regularly field both Democratic and Republican presidential candidates. And we are nothing if not international.

-John Paul Maynard Amherst, Massachusetts Sept. 16 2011

Unfinished Revolutions الثورات التي لم تكتمل

الثورات التي لم تكتمل : الولادة إلى المستقبل

Unfinished Revolutions: Giving Birth to the Future

All Arab countries have benefited from 'the Arab Spring.' Even in those countries where the revolution failed – Oman, Djibouti, the UAE and even, we hope, Bahrain – important concessions have been made, or will be made. The costs have been high, but the revolution is bearing the fruit of the future. There was no revolution in Saudi Arabia, but the king dumped a cool $1 trillion on young, poor people. Sultan Qabus quickly co-opted the young rebels in Oman by asking them to register at the Ministry of Labor and Industry, to get jobs (created by the state) or, if no job, then a stipend, plus a chance to get extra money, for opening a business. The same tactic was used to co-op the rebels in Djibouti, and also in the UAE, I suspect.

The problem in Dubai and Abu Dhabi was a group highly educated secular intellectuals, most educated in Europe and the USA, who started a protest movement back in early February 2011. They could not be bought off. There were only some two hundred of them, and they did not occupy road intersections or provoke the police. They were told certain things which led them to disband. At some point, from the highest level of the government, they were graciously accommodated. All their detailed criticisms were rigorously cataloged and presented to the leaders of the Al Khalifa and Al Makhtum clans, the UAE's ruling emirs. The UAE is flush with cash so can invest in job-creating. It is important to see exactly how they are generating jobs. The emirs have opened universities and museums and art plazas and research institutes and is almost ready to finally find jobs for their hard-working intellectuals.

Morocco and Jordan are two Arab monarchies that have moved, step by step, to effect big changes in their governments. The Arab Spring brought to a head decades-old grievances. In each case, some progress had been made before the revolutions of 2011. King Abdallah the IIth of Jordan has agreed to give more power to parliament. King Muhammad the VIth of Morocco also gave back to parliament some of his powers. These kings keep for themselves their defense and intelligence bureaucracies, and have made sure that they control the revenues collected from the people, to be invested in just the right way. (Jordan has a severe water crisis. Amman depends on bottled water trucked in.)

It is also pertinent that both kings have retained their traditional roles as 'leaders of the faithful' so can move against well-known radical Islamist organs.  Two other features Jordan and Morocco share: minority religions – Jews in Morocco (who have long had at least one seat in parliament), and the Christian Arabs in Jordan. Both still have nomads roaming around.

Both are deeply involved in crises: the enforced exodus of non-combantent Arabs from Palestine into Jordan, as a result of premeditated policies of ethnic cleansing (and theft of property). In Morocco, the whole government-led annexation of, and expansion into, the Southern Sahara has been 'victorious.' The Arab Spring began in the summer of 2010 deep in the Algerian Sahara, in the four huge refugee camps around remote Tindouf. In these four sprawling camps live (barely)  refugees from the Spanish Sahara, nomad Berber-Arabs.. All during the summer and autumn of 2010 the Polisario government led protests and demonstrations; when one camp stood down, another started its protests, so the voices of the West Saharan Berber refugees, was amplified and sustained - constant.

Not surprisingly such vocal unrest disturbed the Algerian people, who have an even longer traditions of protest. What happened, on January 11, is that a large protest in the suburbs of Algiers, refused to obey curfew – and stared down the police.

The other Arab countries had their own internal grievances, ready to explode. But when the Algerian democrats stared down the police, a new way was open - take the streets, the ministeries, et al., - and was quickly exploited by young, wired protesters in Tunisia, then Egypt, then Yemen, Libya, Bahrain, Oman, Djibouti, Jordan, Morocco, Mauritania and the UAE.

I'm sure constitutional experts from Western Europe and the United States can be of assistance to Arab rebels as they struggle to form new governments. But we must remember that the Arabs do have deep traditions of democracy. Bedouin generally elect their sheikhs, and I have been to meetings in Muslim societies where people voted with their hands. Arab sheikhs and emirs keep open their doors to common people with grievances (or capitalist opportunities). Furthermore, Islam has democratic traditions, first in its equality of believers, then in certain principles laid down by Muhammad: “government must consult with the people at every step.” and “my people will never agree on an error,” a profound statement legitimizing (intelligent) dissent. And of course the four ensuing Khalifs – Abu Bakr, Oman, Uthman and Ali – were all elected by the 'ulema, the educated elders. Though Muhammad died without preparing his patrimony (he was too modest to even imagine that he was the most powerful human who ever lived), he must have instructed the community, the 'umma, to elect its leaders. Probably because he used elections and consultations while administering Medina.

In the generations which followed, a clergy grew up, led by specialists in law, and Islam became a religion. In the early years following Muhammad's death, power passed to Damascus, where the rich Arab emirs, the Umayyads, moved to control and take the wealth. Many Muslims looked to Muhammad's own family (including Ali) to preserve Islam's core moral principles in the face of rapidly expanding commercial actors. These rich men hunted down and killed Ali and Hussein and Hasan, Muhammad's grandsons. The Middle East have never gotten over that.

The emergence of a heavily-armed Shi'a block, stretching from Iran, through southern Iraq, to Syria and Lebanon, has been rather eclipsed by events on the streets. Even Iran has advised Syria to “meet the demands of its people.” Though the government in Lebanon is currently headed by moderate Shi'a, they do not care to fight the Sunni and Christian and Druze Lebanese.

While I am writing this, there is a battle underway in Cairo, as violent mobs attack the Israeli embassy. The government, under international pressure, has been trying to disperse hundreds of Arab rebels, angry at Israel's stupid shooting to death of five Egyptian soldiers. That was in early August, after a Palestinian terror group fired at a tourist bus, killing seven Israeli non-combatants.

That incident at Eilat was, is, unfortunate, in that it greatly aggravated the people of Egypt. The Egyptian had long watch Israel's use of collective punishment, and its use of extreme violence against rather innocent Palestinian people, but here we see the same gun-happy trigger-pulling 'tactics' of the IDF. They may have some military competence, but the Israelis are as politically powerless as its backer, the USA. Lack of language skills, ignorant of Islam, the US forces in Iraq and Afghanistan were unable, even with translators, to engage in effective political dialogue with the average Arabs on the street.

Israel of course has had its own mass demonstrations. People flooded into Tel Aviv, occupying sidewalks, not road intersections. I know Israel, and many Israelis, and am not surprised at the collective shows of dissidence. Most Israelis want peace with the Arabs, but the American Republican party, egged on by Christian Zionists, evangelicals from the American south, has given the narrow right-wing government of “Bibi” "The Whiner" Nitanyahu, a carte blanche and a green light. This encouragement of the Israelis to basically take over the West Bank, is a bid to re-construct the Israeli empire. Did not God tell them to do so? No. Of course not. These fundamentalists betray the core moral principles of their own religions. That goes for the Muslim leaders as well as the Jewish and Christian political upstarts. They are obviously deluded, and they hurt millions of innocent people.

Historically, the Israelit empire lasted less than two years. Judah, Samaria and Israel were of course very different places, different cultures. Today, few Zionists talk of ruling 'from the Nile to the Euphrates' but the complete annexation of the Arab West Bank is well underway. The Jews moving into these illegal settlements include many Americans, while American taxpayers' money is used directly and indirectly to build and maintain these settlements. But even if the Jewish extremists, led by deluded fundamentalists in both Israel and America, succeed in 'cleansing' the land completely, the West Bank will always be stolen land. It is a quiet genocide. Israel has long applied collective punishment, and Palestinians are not free to do many things in their own land. For example, they cannot travel freely in their own country.

Palestine was created in 1948 alongside Israel. The two states were conceived together. Originally, the two state idea was just a concept, prompted by the collapse of the Ottoman Empire following World War One. After World War Two, the US took up the idea of a two-state solution, and the UN advanced the concept. Just before independence was declared in May, 1948, both Jewish and Arab armies fell on each other. Neither side wanted to adhere to US and UN law. Each side forfeited its own legal basis, by denying the other. The two always went together.

This week the UN will be deciding whether Palestine might be admitted as a country into the UN, a move long opposed by Israel and the USA. But if Israel is to be a legal enterprise, free of ethnic-sectarian genocide, then, as I explained, a free country called Palestine must come into being.

Right-wing American political players are determined to stop any such freedom for the Palestinian Arabs. Why? Because they are Muslims, I guess. Also: the rich spit at the poor. Also: a casual lack of law, a disregard of fundamental legal decisions by the world. That world was originally led by the USA, but no longer. True, America has gained some prestige for its armed support of the Libyan rebels, but the US government under G.W. Bush foolishly and tragically invaded Iraq in 2003. Iraq remains a bleeding wound that does not heal.

Richard Perle, Douglas Fythe, Eliot Abrams and other Jewish US security officials have been rightly cited as the originators and executors of the US invasion of Iraq - they had been talking about it for a decade - but George W. Bush, who feels Iraq was a terrible but blameless blunder, says all responsibility for the tragedy was with him. Yet, Mr. Bush is no intellectual, and was lured into a most unholy alliance with crazed violent aggressive Zionists, both Jewish and Christian, to "thwack the serpent on the nose."

Israel is one quarter Arab. It is a Muslim as well as a Jewish country. Israel's courts understand this: they routinely used the Shari'a and fiqh to adjudicate disputes and to manage Muslim waqf properties. Most Israeli judges speak Arabic, and there are elements of the judiciary which are the impartiality of the law. Israel's supreme court is the most reliable (and just) organ in the Israeli government.

The Arabs of course have played right into the right-wing Israeli bid to annex (most of) the West Bank, teaching and enforcing inveterate hatred against all Jews. Obviously this too is unjust – and counter-productive. Furthermore, the mass indoctrination of children into hating all Jews (and Americans) makes it un likely that these populations will be restored to each other. There is a huge positive synergy potential between them.

Given the American government's (tacit) support for Israel expansion beyond its lawful borders, augurs poorly for the future. The Holy Land will be opened to the Western Crusaders. Israel will, should, militarily dominate the Middle East. Many American leaders believe in that. The evangelical imperialists really do believe that the End of Days is near, and that the final showdown will be in Israel, at Meggido. Not surprisingly, the Israeli government closely monitors Americans visiting Meggido, and not surprisingly, the the clinical Israelis view American evangelicals as crazy and potentially drastically dangerous.  The idea of the Apocalypse is, of course, an Iranian idea, from the Zoroastrians, who believed in a final showdown between light and dark. The Jews took it (and much more) from the Persians when they were exiled to Babylon in the 6th C. BC.

But who is the light and who is the dark? I have had to counsel the US government (especially the Defense Dept.) not to be so infiltrated and dominated and compromised by Iranian ideas. The Republicans, the loud, aggressive ones, don't like science, but such adherents to Iranian ideas also betrays their own Biblical principles. They don't know their own traditions. Nor do the Muslims.

Of course the USA is great big nation, ethnically diverse, and democratic, with a secular government (thank God). It should never choose sides based on ethnic/sectarian favoritism. If the USA were a great nation, it would not take sides.

Arab regimes have long used the Arab-Israeli dispute to distract their citizens (blaming the 'other') and prevent them from moving for reforms at home. Now the Arab Spring – revolution – has shown the Arab people to be temporarily un-distracted by Israel. So it is worrisome, I suppose, that the Arab dissidents are fighting their own police at the Israeli embassy in Cairo, as I write. Yet the Mubarrack policy of joining with Israel (and America) to wall off (imprison) the Palestinians in Gaza, was not just either.

An outside (or inside) observer might think it implausible that any Palestinian state will emerge in the near future. The ultra-right crypto-fascists are rich and determined. The Bible tells them to fight, just like they fought 3,000 years ago.

Actually the Hebrew Bible (also revered by the Arabs) is against any such thing: “If you use my name to cause harm, I will lay waste your soul.” (Ex.20:7) Curiously, the Qur'an is a more pro-Jewish text than the Hebrew Bible. About 40% of the Qur'an recounts Biblical stories – but the characters are white-washed. Abraham is not held account for driving his concubine into the desert with his own son, then marrying his barren half-sister Sarah. Moses was a murderer, and not a Hebrew at all. King David murdered one of his devoted officers, Absalom, in order to marry his wife, Tamar. The prophets of course were scathing in their criticisms of the Israeli imperial pretensions - the influence of loud ignorant fundamentalists who were used by war lords and even the king.

But the way is open: the new Palestinian nation will simply have a Jewish minority, just as Israel has a Muslim minority. The Jewish settlers are all extremists – using the Bible (and guns) to annex much of Arab Palestine. They will not want to be part of Arab Palestine, even though they are (they live there). Will either the Israeli or the American government have the moral fibre to enforce a two-state solution? Not if the willfully ignorant Republican Zionists in the US government have their way.

I lived in Palestine and in Israel, and know that Arabs and Jews can get along splendidly if they were not so crassly influenced by their mean leaders. So, as long as America betrays its own core code of equality before the law, the whole Israeli-Arab dispute will continue to be exploited by religious hotheads on all three sides. And hypocrisy breeds anger.

As I finish, I hear on the radio that the big fight at the Israeli embassy in Cairo has become more violent, as Egyptian army commandos fire at the protesters. Thousands of enraged Egyptian urban young males are trying to break into the vault, the inner sanctum. Will the army shoot them dead? The revolution in Egypt is hardly finished.
 

                                                  -John Paul Maynard, Amherst, Massachusetts

for papers on Islamic land law, reform in Islam, an analysis of economic change in Egypt, log onto

www.middleeastspeculum.blogspot.com.

The author is the moderator for the graduate alumni association's on line discussion group on Islamic civilization.  His e mail address: johnpaulmaynard@post.harvard.edu.

All Arab Nations Benefit from Revolution

وقد استفادت جميع الدول العربية من الثورة.
Note: Speculum posts each Friday night (EST) following prayers and the release of casualty numbers from the hospitals. To reference our deeper studies of Islam and the Islamic world, log on to http://www.middleeastspeculum.blogspot.com.

Even where the revolution failed, important concessions have been granted. The protesters in Jordan, Morocco and the UAE are not calling for the ouster of their kings. In Bahrain, the dissidents are welcomed to spell out their (legitimate) grievances, to parliament. In Oman and Djibouti, the governments have rapidly responded to the protest by creating hundreds of jobs.

Libya Wins Its Independence -

Readers of this publication are familiar with the topographic details of the war in Libya, so it is not too surprising to learn that NATO planned the stunning rebel victory over the heavily armed forces of Mu'ammar Qaddafi. Just what 'planned' means is a point in question. But as we pointed out in earlier postings, Qaddafi's forces could not cover their flanks, or even control urban territory.

The rebel's decision to activate another front in the west, through the Nafusa Mountains, was the decisive move, in our view. NATO must have convinced the Tunisians to open a corridor from Ramala to Nalut.

On Sept. 1 representatives from some fifty nations met in Paris with reps from the NTC (Libya's lawful government). Libya deserves and will receive, not so much assistance, as access to its oil profits stashed overseas (over $100 billion).

By Friday, prayers and the beginning of the Eid al Fitr, Qaddafi's forces are found in Sirte and Sabha. We have often mentioned both places. They are the home turf of Qaddafi. It is was in Sabha, in the Fezzan, that Qaddafi went to high school. There, he learned how to scheme and plot revolution. After, he lived for months with the Tuareg, and traveled in his own mobile caravan deep in the Sahara.

The National Transitional Council (NTC), Libya's legitimate government, has given the defenders of Sirte and Sabha a week before they would attack. Meanwhile, NATO jets have conducted close to three hundred sorties in and around Sirte, breaking up any fixed defenses Qaddafi's troops can put up.

But Sabha is another situation, remote and beyond NATO air. Actually, US jets can re-fuel over the Sahara and smash the defenses, but this would be a special operation. Sources from the rebl command asserted Thursday Sept.1, that Mu'ammar Qadafi was in the south, on his way to Niger. We've been saying the same thing: that Qaddafi can navigate the Sahara in a small caravan, expecting to meet friends along the way. Qaddafi need not worry in Niger, Zimbabwe, and most southern African nations.

Meanwhile, prisons are still being found, mass graves. Some 50,000 Libyans are missing. One can be sure that investigations are going forward. There is a hard edge to the rebels: too much blood spilled. Qaddafi's rule was 'a boring nightmare.'

The West is fretting that Islamists are inside the NTC. The jihadi Abdul Hakim Belhaj was invited to attend some high level meetings. Belhaj once had links with Al Qaida, the Taliban and with the murderous Egyptian group Al Jihad. Even worse, the NTC commander Abdel Fattah Younis was murdered by the Libyan Islamic Fighting Group. That organization has just been 'de-mobilized.' The new name is the 'Islamic Movement for Change (IMC).'

These Libyan Islamists were well organized. They often stormed impossible targets, like the Bab al Azziyah complex south of Tripoli, Qaddafi's HQ. But we should bear in mind that these Islamist leaders, like Belhaj, are aging veterans, tired of war. Times have certainly changed. Previously, all problems were dropped on America, Israel and the West. But today, the US is greatly praised for its coordination of the entire NATO air war. Press a little further and the Arabs will find that the USA does not back but condemns Jewish settlement in the West Bank of Palestine.

Syria – low intensity conflict for years?

The prognosis is not good. There can be no resolution. Syria's low intensity civil war can go on for years. This is intolerable – not what Syria deserves. Lack of electricity and war, food and fuel, combined with incessant fear, will just wear the people down.

Aleppo and Damascus see few demonstrations, which means the Ba'athi regime can turn its attentions elsewhere. At the moment, the regime is conducting a vicious police action in Hama, in an effort to catch the defecting district attorney, Adnan Bukar. On Friday the 24th there was a huge demonstration in Homs. The police shot dead some 30 and detained some 200. Many of these will not be seen alive again. Some were from Deir Az Zaur, in the east.

Will guns find their way into people's hands? The army cannot seal all the borders. But a civil war would be tragic. It would last for years and kill tens of thousands.

A Syrian colleague in NYC tells me the Syrian Ba'athi regime under Bashar Al Assad, is not that strong. “It will splinter.” The majority of army soldiers are Sunni Muslims, and their Alewite commanders don't hesitate to use lethal force to keep the army as a tool of repression. That's the only tool they have to keep the troops in line.

The whole world condemns the Syrian regime for its attacks on its innocent civilians. Even Iran has protested. “We call on Syria to meet the demands of its people” said a spokesman in Tehran. Syria is isolated internationally.

On Saturday Sept. 3 we  see further meetings between representatives of the Syrian people and the international community. If they are not planning for war, they must be planning a diplomatic overture. Even the regime has limits. The resistance should consider government proposals for a multi-party system. There has to be flexibility on both side for there to be an agreement, a reconciliation.

Iraq – discontent and violence

On Sept. 1, a vicious battle erupted inside the Ministry of the Interior, in Baghdad. Some 20 are killed as government soldiers fought the terrorists for some six hours. For two months, there has been a plan of assassinations of officials. The leaders in this mayhem are those calling themselves 'the Islamic State of Iraq.' They are closely associated, or were, with Al Qaida in Iraq. They are Sunni Muslims who don't hesitate to slaughter Shi'a, Christians, Yazidis and Jews.

Opposed are the large numbers of Shi'a Muslims from southern Iraq. Maliki is tied to the radical M. Sadr who is tied to Iran. Indeed, it is common knowledge in Iraq that foreign intelligence organs are stirring up the embers. US forces (some 50,000) will be gone before the end of the year.

Iraqis ask only for food, water, electricity, garbage collection and peace. Government services are lagging or non-existent, not for lack of money, but because of a shortage of competent administrators. Time and again, new employees embezzle money or just disappear for long periods. They have no experience as to what an administration is for. Many cannot write well, or do math.

Like Syria, we see a long low-intensity war in Iraq. The police are definitely improving: for eight years they seen their own ranks infiltrated by ethnic sectarian extremists. Now they are better at stopping infiltration. Still, this week it was announced that some 40 al Qaida prisoners escaped from a prison in Mosul. They dug a tunnel. The government has arrested the entire prison staff. Most of the escapees were captured during a curfew.

Yemen – Danger from Violence Recedes

With president Ali Saleh in hospital in Riyadh, the political situation in Sana'a is easing. Meanwhile, shortages of water, electricity and the high price of food, with little chance of profitable work, casts Yemen as a country in need of humanitarian relief.

On July 3, three soldiers were killed in the south, Aden, when a suicide bomber detonated a bomb. The country may be breaking apart, but people are confident that they can bring democracy to the country. Yemen is made for democracy – it is a federation of small states, several of which were once veritable empires. All the various actors: should we name them?

In Sana'a, secular, educated Yemenis started the protest six months ago. They worked as a team with the shibab, the youth in the streets. These young men used electronic media to call and coordinate protests. But they do not recognize the intellectuals, the professionals, still less government.

Tribes control movement around the country. The Revolutionary Guard under Saleh's sons is strong enough to fight tribal insurgents. But it must also contend with secessionists in the south (in Abyar and the Hadramaut). Al Qaida is a third force that needs be watched. They occupy eastern Yemen, under tribal protection, of course.

Sudan: Fighting in Kordufan -

With the division of Sudan in two, one would expect the people to get with it. But now there is war in southern Kordufan (located between Darfur and the Nile). Black Muslims, speaking their own language (Kordufan), are under aerial and ground attack. After the inauguration of South Sudan, other minorities want independence. But the attacks of Omar Al Bashir's Islamic Sudan has caused some ten thousand Kordufan people to leave their homes. There are nearly a million refugees, in Somalia, Ethiopia, Kenya, and South Sudan. The international community wants to help, but not all honor their pledges. People (mainly children) are dying of malnutrition and lack of clean water.

Algeria admits Qaddafi family -

Sometimes one can look at Algeria and see no indication of change. It seems that the country has avoided the Arab Spring. At other times, one sees that change has been proceeding on its course. The Algerian people did force President Boutiflika to lift emergency rule – martial law.

On July 31 Algeria admitted the wife and son and grandchildren. Hospitality dictates Algeria receive them. There's no love lost on Qaddafi himself.

Algeria is not a poor country. Over $160 billion of assets are stashed in the West. Much of this money had been ear-marked for various projects, but it just sits there.

Gone is the golden age of Algerian diplomacy, featuring Lakhmar Brahimi and others. Algeria is tired of war. Police do not need emergency powers to break up demonstrations anyways. The people are resigned to their fates: But they are mystified as to where all the oil money went.

Algeria's strong military and police precludes a campaign of protests. The nation's leadership is a bunch of old men – remnants of the old power structure.

Coastal Algerians were secularized under the French. In the interior, Islam rules. Elections for office are very difficult because of this gaping divide: one side boycotts the whole thing. So democracy is not tenable.

Can anything sew up the divide in Algeria's fabric? The army. Trade. Jobs.

Four features offers hope for the future: a dramatic rise in fresh water, thanks to a new desalination plant running of Algerian NG. Secondly, Algeria has a courageous and rather independent press. Thirdly, multiparty democracy is in place; Fourth, Algeria has so much money from oil that it cannot even invest it domestically.

Israel - mass demonstrations on July 3rd. We include Israel here because it contains many Arabs and is an Islamic country (also). The Israeli protesters want a more equitable distribution of wealth, lower taxes, lower food prices, low-income and single housing and more jobs.

                                                                                         -by John Paul Maynard

Libya Free After 43 Years

Libyans Take Over Their Country

The capture of Qaddafi's compound at Bab al Azziyah by rebels and its subsequent occupation by the people of Tripoli on August 24 means that some mopping up operations are required, so people are happy but fearful. In the east, in Cyrenaica, rebels pushed into Al Brega and passed Ras Lanuf on August 24. By the 26th, they are likely passing Al Sidr, closing in on Sirte. Meanwhile, preparations for a new government, a new society, are intensifying.

But where is the mad dog of Tripoli? As long as the Qaddafis are loose, they will serve as a potential lightning rod for loyalists. Those loyalists are loose in Tripoli, but some ten thousand rebel democratic fighters are now converging: the hunt begins. Where is Qaddafi?

He most likely hiding in a private compound, one owned by one of his military commanders. He might be able to make it south to Sabha, but that would mean traveling off road, since the rebels control the road to the Fezzan. Once in the south, he would be free of NATO aircraft and drones. It was in Sabha that Mu'ammar Qaddafi committed himself to 'revolutionary action.' From there he could make his way deeper into the Sahara.

On the 25th the Libyan Transitional National Council announced that free passage would be given Qaddafi if he just turned himself in. But the Mad Dog of the Magreb is too wily to fall for that. He'll die in Libya, he and his son, Saif.

For over four months there were some one dozen assassination and intel teams operating in Tripoli. Using fast autos, these undercover warriors pursued leads developed through their neighborhood contacts, or from NATO. Now some three thousand rebel fighters are searching for him. Every structure in the city will be thoroughly searched. But Qaddafi could still disappear. Even by submarine.

The Libyan people are free to pick up the pieces and attempt to erect a just, democratic government. Law and order will need to imposed. All the various long-suppressed tribal and sectarian organs will come out, already organized. But the power remains with the people – the secular, educated people who simply want justice, some chance to make it money-wise, and to choose their own leaders.

Some Arab theorists want an American-style democracy, others want a European style. The first features a strong president, and a clear triangle of powers as a break to executive power. The European style is of course the parliamentary, with a prime minister who may be appointed, or elected.

Our recommendation is neither of these are right for Libya. There does not have to be single leaders: the people can govern themselves and will rejoice in doing so after nearly a half century of gruesome oppression. Another weakness in both European and American democracies is policy paralysis. Parliaments can be inflammatory, while a 3-part government of the Americans, is too often dead-locked.

Qaddafi prevented social institutions to arise naturally, but imposed his own courts, training institutes, banks, and financial agencies, tribal soirees, and private officer corps. Now these are all down. Some organs might be revived and altered, but in other cases, entirely new institutions have to be founded and funded.

China and Russia are using their chairs on the UN Security Council, to block the distribution to the THC of Libyan funds overseas. South Africa also refused to release gold to the rebels. Qaddafi of course is a legend in Africa, greatly hated by some, but welcomed by others. But only because he had money. Now Mu'ammar has a bundle of Libyan bank notes and foreign currencies, but that would last him a week. He will have to depend on his properties in Africa ikf he wants to keep living in style. I think the International Criminal Court will catch up with him. For Mu'ammar was a Jekyl/Hide split personality. For 42 years he ruled like a tyrranical king, by force, of course.

One might hope that Qaddafi left some apt advice in his little Green Book. But he remained ignorant of the actual Muslim legal texts. He never trusted anyone mentioning Islam. He locked up (or killed) thousands of Islamists. This was highly catastrophic and ironical, because the Libyan jurists follow the Maliki school of jurisprudence, which is arguably, the most liberal of the four Sunni schools (mazhab). Malik ibn 'Anas should be something of a patron saint, able to apply Islamic land law to create new institutions and provide women with a measure of ownership of houses.

One thing the Libyan architects could do is to study the Al Muwatta, by Malik ibn 'Anas, for directions of how to create local welfare institutions; re-instate the commons; collect taxes and create political forums.

The Arabs are much more into politics than people in the West, speaking generally. They have no problem meeting and talking about things. The tendency is to trust others, or take them on face value, but real critical thinking is required to meet any of the rebels' objectives.

The Libyan civil war last a half year. Over that time, the people in the coastal cities suffered grievous lack of electricity, communications and food and water: all scarce. Now the nascent authorities must bring in all that is needed to get the country up running again.

But before that can happen, the Mad Dog of Libya must be hunted down.

Syria – Russia blocks UN transfer of the Syrian case to the International Criminal court. Bashar and his crew are conducting continuous operations against pockets of resistance in Homs, Hama, Dayr Az Zaur, Latakia, Dera'a and suburbs in Damascus.

The Syrian army is made up of Sunni conscripts, so Bashar al Assad has brought in hundreds of adviser/snipers from Iran. They are from the Al Quds brigade, basically, the Revolutionary Guards. They're a terrorist organ.

The Ba'athi masters are incredible as they murder Syrian innocents. The West want the Ba'athists out – they've lost their legitimacy. Meanwhile, Russia, China, Iran and even Turkey are making sure Bashar and his brother remain on top.

Yemen – Whispers behind the Curtain

The Saudis and the American keep Ali Abdullah in his hospital in Riyadh, leaving his people to work it out by themselves. But tensions are high. First, there is little clean water and food, no NG and little gas and diesel. Jobs can't happenm because there's not enough money to pay workers, no matter how important their work.

The revolt in Yemen stemmed from an alliance between the shibab (the youth) on the street, and the intellectuals and professionals. Now that division has opened up. This more ominous than the return of Saleh. A new government cannot be formed, unless, as the shibab demand, all the officials and officers are placed under arrest to be tried for murder. These demands are not just: many officials and officers are not corrupt or guilty. They are needed in the new government. But the shibab say no. So the rebels in Sana'a are deadlocked.

Syria – Huge demonstrations in Homs 

 took place following the end of prayers on Friday. Aug. 26. The killing, maiming and imprisonment of protesters (and soldiers who refuse to kill), is taking place, in various towns. Outside Syria, in Istanbul, Syrian rebel reps are trying to figure out how they will fight the Ba'athists, and what kind government would be best for post-Assad Syria.

European parliaments work only when they are independent of the king or prime minister. It not clear which if any of the Arab states can create a two-part freedom, a balance, through which a parliament might legislate and a PM or president might veto. The American tri-partite system on the other hand is too balanced. Leading to gridlock and ultimately, to a failure to adapt to change.

Can the Arabs come up with their own multi-party system? Can new constitutions be approved? I believe the Arabs have their own traditions of democracy: the traditional access to the sheikh, voting by hands at the end of meetings, the election of the chief, in peace and in times of war.

Certainly Muhammad had an interest in democracy. “Government must consult with the people at every step.” He sanctified dissent when it is over errors in policy and practice: “My people will never agree on an error.”

Qatar – Riding the wave behind the scenes

It turns out that Qatar is playing a formative role all through the Arab Spring. Al Jazeerah media group is now just one of many independent media organs in the Arab world.

Who's in Charge anyways?

الذي هو في أي حال تهمة؟

Libya – Qaddafi's forces pull back

The democratic rebels have forced Qaddafi back into his Tripoli redoubt. Tripoli is cut from its thee supply lines: from Sabha and the Fezzan to the south, through the terminal and refinery at Zawiya on the western coast, and through the border coastal road with Tunisia. Note: Tripoli falls to the democratic rebels on August 22, 2011.

Unable to verify that Qaddafi is talking to the resistance, we look to the end game. Under nightly NATO bombardment, Qaddafi has been running like a rat from one private home after another. There must be many mobile teams of shooters out to get him.

Can the Mad Dog of Tripoli fight it out? Everything depends on close coordination between NATO pilots and their navigators, and Libya democratic forces on the ground. At the moment, both sides are preparing for the next step: a drive on Tripoli.

Qaddafi can't marshal and deploy armor or even artillery without bringing down fighter bombers. This is why we can predict Qaddafi will be dead within six (6) days.

This is good news for the whole world. The fears of the investors have pushed the price of gasoline up almost a dollar or 33% above its pre-war price. One must also mention the speculators and oil companies who take advantage of these fears. The end of the war in Libya means that some one million barrels a day of the finest oil on the planet, will flow into Europe.

But does not the USA deserve some of that splendid Saharan crude? Long ago the USA outlawed any importation of oil from Libya, because of terrorism. Obviously, the situation has changed: Qaddafi will be driven into exile or killed.

Qaddafi was, is, the man who spoiled the party. The middle classes all over the world had to pay ever more for their gasoline and diesel. Since 1970, Qaddafi engineered a relentless cost-hike – taking advantage of Libya's superb low-sulfur petroleum, as well as the close distance between Libya and its European customers.

At times the premiums Qaddafi added reached 400% of the original price. In recent times, I would guess the premiums have ranged from 25% to 60%. The new government will also charge premiums, but at roughly a rate one third (1/3) of Qaddafi's premiums.

The democratic rebels will not forget who helped them, so this is an excellent chance to (prepare to) purchase fresh Libyan crude. The USA should make it a policy priority to import appx. 7% of Libya's oil production.

The bulk of this oil will be shipped to Newfoundland, where three huge new refineries will crack it for New England customers. This small, original part of the USA has no oil or gas, and is politically vulnerable to gunslinger politicians from Texas and other Southern centers. Now that most of New England's electrical power is streaming down from Quebec, it is only fitting that its petroleum products keep coming down from Newfoundland.

Syria -

More oppression – another 100 or so killed this week, in Latakya, Homs and in villages and suburbs, as Mater Al Assad deploys his strong army (and paramilitary shabibha) on some 27 fronts. Bashar said on the 18^th of August: “We are ending all military operations” but of course Bashar is not exactly in command of the eight Syrian intelligence outfits, plus his army and police. And sitting with Bashar are some 20 Ba'athi 'princes and princesses.' And they don't control it. It's Mater.

Actually, one can almost double the casualties reported, just to show the numbers of Syrian officers and soldiers killed, often by their own men.

How long can this go on? The whole world is calling for Al Assad to step down. But if he did, who would keep Mater and his Alewite thugs in check?

The UN will soon hand the Case of Syria to the International Criminal Court.

Indeed, we are impressed by the activist diplomacy of the Turks, the Western Europeans and the United States. The Turks had just made a “very special peaceful embrace” of Bashar's new Syrian regime. The Europeans were taking Syria's oil surpluses. The USA supported Syria multi-ethnic and inter-denominational balance.

The UN and the Arab League have also shown new faces, willing to come together free of political posturing. The Arab League did in fact authorize NATO actions in Libya. Of course Syria is different, and only Turkey and Israel are in a position to intervene militarily.

Meanwhile, Mater and his friends and cousins will keep up the desultory bombardment of civilian housing blocks and mosques. Thousands are being imprisoned. We estimate ten a day are perishing in detention. Will the Sunni majority in the (lower ranks) army rise up against their officers? If it keeps going on, this war against the people, you will see splits in the intel services and the armed forces.

But who is willing to just watch the slaughter month after month? Unlike Libya, the Syrian civil war can continue indefinitely. So, a radical diplomatic approach is called for.

That approach is to have the Ba'athi government, at its highest levels, to step down, choosing internal or external exile. But the Muslim Brotherhood must not be allowed to take over the government. Though they are the best organized, and have long martyrial traditions, blood to avenge, the Brothers are actually a tiny minority. In Syria, most everyone is educated. So they are not about to hand the revolution over to the Islamists.

If the rebels in Turkey can line up a cabinet, then perhaps there might be one-to-one meeting, up and down the line, permitting a graceful exit, followed by genuine reconciliation. That's the only way I see to bring the Syrian atrocities to an end.

Yemen - A New Regional Configuration

President Ali Abdullah Saleh is still in hospital in Riyadh. Though he vows to return, that would likely cause civil war, a resumption of it. It looks like stasis and static in Sana'a, but people are talking. The demonstrators are split between two groups. One is the group of educated secular professionals, the other is the shabab on the street. So time is needed to talk things out.

Half of the Yemenis are age 20 or below, and we know that the human brain in adolescents is not fully developed, specifically the frontal cortex, which is required should one care to know the consequences of one's actions. In Egypt, Tunisia, Libya, Syria as well as in the Yemen, there is quiet un-published struggle underway between the youth and the elders.

Yemen features diverse cultural and economic zones. The national government can barely keep hold of Aden and the south (Himyar and the Hadramaut), while the Tihama along the Red Sea coast still functions as a port (Al Hudaydah) and cultural center (Mocha and Zabid). With the withdrawal of army, government and district police one watches as these regions revert to tribal and sectarian rule.

The USA is involved. Though condemned wherever it goes, most Arabs and Pashto recognize the legitimate right to revenge. So let us not cheer the genocidal terrorists operating now in Eastern Yemen. Let us not condemn all the various Muslim groups. Remember, Islamic law (shari'a and fiqh) is preferable to tribal codes, not just for women, but economically as well.

Unfortunately America's knowledge of Islam is so pathetic it cannot engage in any intelligent dialogue with in situ Muslim communities. Though the US is a Muslim nation, it has no academic center that can study the shari'a and fiqh without bias.

The first thing one should ask anyone calling himself a Muslim, or anyone professing to know about Islam, is: How does Muhammad's teaching at Medina differ from the religion that later evolved?

Egypt – End of Peace with Israel?

Palestinian terrorists from Gaza were able to transit the Sinai peninsula and attack Israeli tourists in Eilat, Israel. The Israelis over-reacted as usual, using aircraft to hunt down “terrorists” into Egypt, succeeding in killing three Egyptian soldiers.

The Egyptians are all indignant, withdrawing their ambassador. But it is clear that when the new government of Egypt, took down the barriers separating Egypt from Gaza, Palestinian strike teams were able to transit the Sinai and hit Eilat.

All this augurs poorly for continued peace. Popular demand and acclamation control the Egyptian military's response. Relations with Hamas are re-established.

Israel, which was witnessing its own street protests when the attack occurred, turned sour, causing an end to the demonstrations. Obviously both Israel and Egypt are responsible. But such is the spin on both sides, that negotiations are not possible. We don't foresee war. But as long as Israel insists on holding stolen land, it will be open to organized resistance, including the targeting and firing of missiles from Iran, Lebanon, Syria and perhaps someday  Egypt as well.

Iraq - Stepping back from the Abyss

The Iraqi government if paralyzed on the question of American troops in Iraq. Even the pro-Iranian Nur Al Maliki administration does not care to throw the country to the Iranian wolves. The Sunnis see the Americans as the last step before civil war - the abyss. Lewd imposters decorate the scene, and the ministers tell outside investors "this is a gold mine."

Jobs, food, fuel, housing - these are the basic wants characterizing Iraqi lives as much as the Arabs. Saddam left a country with some infrastructure. But those superhighways he built only hastened and made easy the invasion by the Americans. That battle back in 2003 cannot be discussed in the street.

Everywhere we look we see anti-Americanism, not as an attitude or position, but from an existential need, it seems. Erroneously these Muslim think America is against Islam, or supports Israel's theft of Arab land in Palestine and Syria. Terror targeting against the US has regrettably changed American's view of Islam. If ordinary Muslims are innocent, they would have successfully interrupted the work of God-less  paper-machet 'Muslims,' so they think.

The Wider Context -  Themes of Protests

There has been a rise in demonstrations, world wide. China has experienced some 12,000 protests just since 2008. There are (small) protests in Algeria at any given time. Bahrain of course is trying to heal the unfortunate rift opening up between its Sunni and Shi'a populations. Saudi Arabia is concentrating on its intelligence operatives in eastern Yemen, and we expect them to use heavy weapons, or call on the Americans to employ drones to track and kill 'the American,' (A. Awlaki) and his lieutenants.

Europe has seen an intensification of public protests, largely over austerity matters, but also pro- and anti-Muslim immigrants. Corruption is also a common theme. Also, there have been 'slut protests' by women against male abuse in public and private.

 There have been environmental protests in Brazil, Chile and in Meso-America. Mexico has become a failed state. Are Arab states 'failed?' Yes and no. Mexico has had revolutionary government since 1810, while Arab states have little experience with democracy.

Indeed leading Islamists are stepping forward to proclaim that Islam is anti-thetical to Islam. But not so. Muhammad said: "The government and the people must consult with each other at every step." But more primarily, Bedouin tribes elect their sheiyks. Muslims on all level meet often to discuss issues, and many of these meetings end with a show of hands. That's democracy.

							-by John Paul Maynard

Intensification of violence

Intensification of Violence in Syria, Yemen and Libya

Libya -

A month ago the Libyan democratic fighters opened a new front in the northwest, through the Nafusa Mtns., to Bir Ghanim. Control of that town shifted back and forth. Latest report is that NATO bombers are keeping Qaddafi's artillery and armor at bay. Possession of Bir Ghanim permits an organized drive on Zawiye, some 30 miles distant. That's Qaddafi's last petroleum terminal.

The reason we can seriously talk about a drive on Tripoli is that, thanks to NATO bombing, Qaddafi can't concentrate and if he deploys broadly, to cover his flanks, they get rolled up, clipped and hunted down like dogs. The rebels are using fast 'technicals' to continually outflank. Qaddafi can't field three separate armies.

Libya's Transitional National Council reshuffles its executive branch, a move praised immediately by the NATO countries. Now, over 30 nations recognize the TNC as the lawful government of Libya.

Syria -

Last week the world community called on the Syrian government to just stop firing at unarmed demonstrators. But once again, the Al Assad entity is using naked violence to terrorize whole cities. Fighting thus against its own people, 99% of them unarmed, the Ba'athi regime has lost its legitimacy. That's a sorrow deep felt, for we had hopes for the young Lion.

If the Sunni Muslims gain control in Syria, they will link up with the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt and elsewhere. America will lose prestige. But the Shi'a thrust through Iran, Iraq, Syria, Lebanon (Hizbullah) and Gaza (Hamas), would be thwacked on the snout.

Is this a balance we foresee? There must be a third factor. People in the Arab world blame the Americans and the Israelis for every thing. They believe their own propaganda, so just shoot themselves in their feet. What is the third force?

Well, on the one side, the broad Sunni population, led by the reformed Ikhwan, while on the other, Shi'a communities bent on retaining control. The third force is what is being phased out – secular politics: parliament, army, the executive, education, intel, et al.

Maybe the sun will come out, maybe the clouds over Cairo and Tunis and Algiers and Tripoli and Manama and the Yemen and Lebanon and Syria and Israel and Palestine, will part, so the sun can shine directly on the land. Sunlight is a third force.

Meanwhile, the Syrian army launched artillery and armor against Homs and villages around Homs, such as Saraqeb. Dayr Az Zaur in the east was also attacked. The regime says it will fight armed terrorists to the end, referring largely to soldiers and police who chose not to fire on the people, and who are now being hunted down.

Yemen -

Instability punctuated by rifle and canon fire as Yemen reverts to its regions. A revolt by the south is no new thing – the last happened in 2007 – but, with the president outside the country, his sons and nephews have a full plate just keeping control of Aden in the Himyar region, in the far south.

Meanwhile, in Sana'a, Saleh's army is fighting elements of the Al Hashid tribal confederation, led by the Al Ahmar family. All this heavy conflict alienates the street, which still is pacifist democratic. But the street is not wise or in the mood for reconciliation. It rejects the wisdom of the intellectuals and the elders, the secular socialists, and the professors. These younger radicals, armed with electronic devices, can trigger flash mobs, and they want a clean sweep: all government personnel must resign.

Originally, the Yemeni demonstration had to do just with lowering food prices and housing costs, jobs and a representational government. But as Saleh fired into his own people, demands for his ouster prove paramount.

Algeria -

Algeria stays cool, proud that it has avoided the turmoil afflicting Libya, Syria and the Yemen. Several times we have noted the original Jan.11 riots, over food. The government cut the price and pledged to build more houses and apartments.

On January 11, the Algerian demonstrators defied a police curfew, and orders to disband, and this brazen challenge to the authorities, helped trigger and effect the revolution in Tunisia.

The doctors and the teachers have been on strike. Since March 29, the doctors have been on strike, protesting random posting to the interior. The teacher unions have been fighting for full recognition of all teachers, from pre-school to professor. On Apr. 24^th, the police attack teachers demonstrating.

On June 23, after two months of talks, the Algerian government agrees to amend its own constitution, to assure individual human rights, re-focus state money to projects which help the poor, and which bring in direct representation.

Algeria may avoid another civil war, but Islamist politics are seething. The top Salafist, Abdelmalik Ramdani, made a TV appearance where he told Algerians that “democracy is not compatible with Islam.” The Christians in Algeria are also under severe discrimination, on a local level.

Algeria is still called 'a booming place' by French investors, and true, the government has tripled its supply of fresh water in just a decade. The forests in the eastern mountains will be systematically harvested, its profits shared. New industries and industry up-grades are afoot.

-John Paul Maynard